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Global Weekly Markets Review - 1 September 2007
Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen,
In 2005 almost a year to the day, President Bush said the immortal words "I will personally make sure the recovery from this hurricane (Katrina) is swift and the people of New Orleans will not suffer". That was two years ago this week.
Yesterday, President Bush uttered the immortal words, "I will personally make sure the recovery from this mortgage crisis is swift and investors will not suffer".
Hmmmm, food for thought most certainly as I sit watching the complete mess that still is New Orleans two years later; if that is what he calls 'help', my goodness, the mortgage crisis is going to get worse!
But this week, rather than dwell on "why" Mr Bush is intervening (because he does not want to be remembered for leading America into a recession), I would like to explain more about the Sub-Prime problem and why in my view, the worst is definitely still to come.
Firstly, for those of you that have no real in depth idea of the Sub Prime mortgage problem, here is a PDF File of the complete Sub-Prime problem in date terms - please click Here (100kb). This shows how it all began and the context of the problem.
Now given those events, Goldman Sachs (they had a massive problem with two of their Funds) gave their opinion on the problem - please click Here (364kb).
JP Morgan offered to help answer questions - please click Here (46kb) and FX Concepts offered their overall view on just how bad it could become - please click Here (51kb).
All of those documents offer a greater insight into the problem. But they are not the best in terms of really bringing home the extent of the problem.
I was fortunate enough to receive this wonderful document which clearly, absolutely & categorically, explains why the problem is not going to go away and why it is going to get much worse - with or without Mr Bush's intervention. Please click Here to see this document. It is a hefty 2.4mb but believe me, for those interested in the current economic/financial situation, it is most definitely worth downloading and reading. It is very, very thought-provoking.
Okay, with that being done, let's take a look at the numbers this week; a week where Commodity fundamentals started coming back in the context that they should be seen (remember, I remain bullish on Commodities and believe that there is still a good two years at least of a bull run for Commodities remaining) - supply/demand.
The leading indices all closed higher for the day, after President George Bush announced that the US government would help some Americans with delinquent mortgages keep their homes. Markets appeared to have taken heart from earlier comments from Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, who said the central bank would “act as needed” to prevent the credit crunch from damaging the US economy. Although markets were cheered by the president’s plan, William O’Donnell, strategist at UBS, said the Bush proposal – allowing the Federal Housing Administration to act as guarantor of some loans from homeowners who are more than 90 days overdue – was “palliative” rather than a solution to the subprime mortgage crisis. The S&P 500 closed up 1.1% on the day, but was 0.4% lower for the week at 1,473.99, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.2% for the day and 0.8% for the week to 2,596.36. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.9% higher on the day and 0.2% down for the week at 13,357.74. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies had gained 1.3% for the day but was 0.8% off for the week at 792.86. Higher equity volatility suggested that nervousness continued to cloud investor sentiment. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Vix index fell 7.1% for the day to 23.29, but was 12.5% higher over the week after dropping more than 30% last week. The Bush plan gave relief to stocks after reports earlier in the week showed sharp falls in home sales and house prices had fuelled a bearish mood among investors. Countrywide Financial, the biggest US mortgage lender, rose 1.1% for the day to $19.85, although the company’s shares finished the week down 5.5% and have lost half their value since mid-June. Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage company, also recouped some of the losses it suffered on Thursday after reporting a 45% plunge in second-quarter net income on a $320m loss on new mortgages. Its shares gained 2.6% on the day, but were down 3.1% for the week at $61.61. Accredited Home Lenders gave the mortgage sector a lift after Lone Star Funds, which had been seeking to abandon its $400m purchase of the struggling subprime mortgage lender, said it was prepared to complete the deal for a reduced price. Accredited shares soared 50% for the week to $9.05. Investment banks staged a moderate recovery but still finished the week lower after Merrill Lynch said tighter credit markets would hit earnings at Citigroup, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. It cut its profit estimates for the three banks and lowered the recommendations on their shares to “neutral” from “buy”. Financial stocks were dealt another blow on Thursday when Lehman Brothers Holdings cut its third-quarter and second-half earnings forecasts. Lehman Brothers, the biggest underwriter of bonds backed by home loans, was 9.2% lower for the week at $54.83; Citigroup lost 3.3% to $46.88; Bear Stearns was down 7.2% at $108.66; and Merrill Lynch fell 3.2% to $73.70. On the upside, technology stocks performed well, as investors welcomed positive earnings results and appeared ready to bet that companies in the sector would continue to be insulated from woes in the credit markets. Dell, the second-largest maker of personal computers, rose 1.8% over the week to $28.25, as the company posted stronger-than-expected quarterly profits and Lehman Brothers raised its target price for the stock to $30. Apple climbed 2.4% to $138.48 after the company issued invitations to an event next week at which it is widely expected to unveil a new version of the iPod digital music and video player. Oracle rose 1.7% for the week to $20.28 after SAP, the German software maker that it is suing for alleged theft of program codes, offered to settle. In other sectors, Altria Group rose 0.3% to $69.41 after it announced it would spin off Philip Morris International, its tobacco unit, and raised its quarterly dividend by 8.7% to 75 cents a share. |
But the bigger picture will depend on next week's interest rate announcements from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. British interest rates are expected to stay at 5.75%, while a hawkish Eurozone increase to 4.25% from 4% should not be ruled out. So, let's start this week in Germany where Frankfurt shares closed higher on the strength of news from the Fed Chairman and Mr Bush. The DAX was up 118.23 points or 1.57% at 7638.17, having traded between 7,536.78 and 7,659.72. The MDAX added 157.65 points or 1.56% to 10,296.07 while the TecDAX advanced 18.01 points or 2.00% to 917.30. DAX futures were 158.50 points or 2.11% higher at 7,666.50 while bund futures fell 0.16 or 0.14% to 113.77. Infineon climbed 41 cents, or 3.7%, to 11.42 Euros. The company and International Business Machines Corp. yesterday agreed to sell their Altis Semiconductor joint venture to Advanced Electronic Systems AG. Infineon and IBM each hold a 50% stake in Altis Semiconductor. Infineon also said it reached a ``mutual agreement'' with former Chief Financial Officer Ruediger Guenther regarding the termination of his contract. Dell, the second-largest maker of personal computers, yesterday posted profit and sales that beat analysts' estimates as component costs fell and demand at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. boosted orders. Siemens AG, Europe's largest engineering company, rose 2.22 Euros, or 2.5%, to 92.19 Euros. Arcandor soared 2.04 Euros, or 11%, to 20 Euros. Germany's largest department-store company, which changed its name from KarstadtQuelle AG in July, posted a second-quarter operating profit of 27.5 million Euros, compared with a loss of 69.2 million Euros a year earlier. Metro AG retreated 65 cents, or 1%, to 63.60 Euros. Two of Metro's biggest investors bought a controlling stake in Germany's largest retailer, spurring speculation they'll press the company to speed expansion abroad or sell real estate. Bayer AG advanced 1.11 Euros, or 2%, to 57.92 Euros. Germany's largest drugmaker plans to reorganize its material-science division to make it more profitable, the Financial Times Deutschland reported. C.A.T. Oil AG climbed 91 cents, or 4.6%, to 20.67 Euros. Deutsche Bank AG recommended buying shares of the Austrian oil-services company in new coverage, setting its price estimate at 26 Euros. H&R Wasag AG rose 51 cents, or 1.9%, to 27.53 Euros. The specialty chemicals maker plans to spend about 54 million Euros through 2009 to improve refinery output in Salzbergen and Hamburg, Euro am Sonntag reported, citing Chief Executive Officer Gert Wendroth. Into France now where Paris Shares closed higher amid strong first half results from French companies. The CAC-40 index closed up 1.25% at 5,662.70 points. Gaz de France was up 3.95% at 36,80 Eur, and Suez rose 1.80% at 41.90 Eur. PPR rose 4.14 to 126.90 Eur, after announcing first half net profit up 142.9% to 326 million Eur. Vivendi fell 1.74% to 30.01 Eur, after confirming its outlook for 2007 and announcing results. It unveiled a 1.6% year-on-year rise in second quarter adjusted operating earnings (EBITA) to 1.322 billion Eur, beating analyst forecasts as strength in its domestic TV and gaming units was only partly offset by weakness at its music business. The French media conglomerate confirmed its full-year outlook for adjusted net income at above 2.7 billion Eur. Bouygues rose 1.24% to 57.81 Eur, after announcing a first-half operating profit, which was ahead of expectations, thanks in part to a rise in earnings at its telecoms unit, and nudged its full-year sales guidance higher. In a statement, the industrial conglomerate said 'based on the group's first-half 2007 sales and business indicators, Bouygues has raised its full-year sales target to 29 billion Eur Euros from 28.8 billion' previously. ArcelorMittal rose 2.83% to 48.37 Eur, having said it has signed an agreement with RAG Beteiligungs-AG for the acquisition of the 76.88% stake directly held by RAG in Saar Ferngas AG for about 367 million Eur. Iliad rose 3.38% to 72.21 Eur. Its first half net profit rose to 78.9 million Eur, up 34.6% from 58.6 million a year earlier. Operating profit was up 16.3% at 101.4 million Eur, compared with 87.2% in the first half of 2006. Across in The Netherlands Shares in Amsterdam closed broadly higher, tracking higher trading on Wall Street, while Corporate Express fell after news of a reorganisation. The AEX closed 5.06 points or 0.98% higher at 522.73, after trading in a range of 519.72-525.27. Among the winners was Arcelor Mittal, which added 2.53% to 48.28 Eur amid news that it intends to buy a stake in Saar Ferngas for about 367 million Eur. TomTom rose 1.77% to 47.76 Eur, and Vedior added 2.14% to 16.67 Eur while Randstad put on 1.76% to 41.08. Royal Dutch Shell added 1.72% to 28.36 Eur as crude oil prices rose to around 72 usd per barrel, and after Austrian company OMV expressed interest in exploration licences for the British Isles, including Shell's. Ahold added 1.03% to 9.80 Eur after Rabo Securities raised its price target to 11.5 Eur from 10.8. Semiconductor shares rose. ASML put on 0.56% to 21.73 Eur and ASMI added 3.09% to 20.04 after Dell's second-quarter earnings of last night. Most financials ended higher. ING rose 1.27% to 29.55 Eur, Fortis rose 0.98% to 26.90 and Aegon put on 1.21% to 13.39 Eur. ABN Amro was the only financial losing out, dropping 0.50% to 34.13 Eur. Among midcap shares, Ordina rose 2.91% to 14.87 Eur, BAM put on 2.79% to 19.88 and Boskalis rose 2.45% to 31.75 Eur. Vopak added 1.92% to 43 Eur after what analysts called 'stunning' first-half earnings. Corio rose 1.02% to 57.18 Eur, recovering from earlier losses after it said it expects the full-year direct result to be 'marginally lower' than the year before. Wessanen dropped 0.81% to 11.09 Eur, Van der Moolen dropped 0.85% to 3.52 and Oce shed 1.62% to 15.80 Eur. Neighbours Belgium saw Brussels Shares closed higher with holding company Nationale a Portefeuille (CNP) and healthcare group Omega Pharma both rising over 2% on ongoing investor confidence after their results. The Bel 20 closed up 45.87 points or 1.07% at 4350.83. CNP closed up 1.39 Eur or 2.70% at 52.79. The group said yesterday its full-year operating profit should benefit from dividends or interim dividends usually issued during the fourth quarter by certain shareholdings. It named Total, Iberdrola and Transcor Astra Group. Omega Pharma rose 1.66 Eur or 2.63% to 64.70. Yesterday Rabo Securities increased its rating on the stock to 'buy' from 'hold' and increased its target price to 73.0 Eur from 72.0 following the group's second quarter results. Bank Dexia closed up 0.38 Eur or 1.92% at 20.21 after its shares were upped to 'buy' from 'hold' at Rabo Securities following the second quarter results which show the company offering 'low-risk growth at an attractive valuation'. Analyst Thomas Nagtegaal said in a note to clients that strong growth in project finance loans and the forthcoming capital release under Basel II were particularly good news for the stock, and added that loan growth in public finance and savings growth in Belgium were very strong. Peer Fortis rose 0.25 Eur or 0.94% to 26.91, whilst KBC inched up 0.09 Eur or 0.10% to 92.02. Utility Suez was up 0.63 Eur or 1.54% at 41.65, after a report said the French government will officially announce its merger with GDF on Monday. In negative territory, Ackermans dropped 0.64 Eur or 0.88% to 71.78. Outside the Bel 20, chemicals group Tessenderlo Chimie jumped 1.63 Eur or 4.12% to 41.20 following better-than-expected second-quarter results, announced last night after the market close. KBC Securities upgraded its rating on the stock to 'buy' from 'accumulate' and increased its target price to 48 Eur from 47. Lingerie group Van de Velde fell 0.47 Eur or 1.24% to 37.52 after it posted a 6.1% fall in first-half net profit due to tough comparables, but forecast full-year sales up 5%. Into Swizterland now where in Zurich Swiss shares closed higher, tracking gains on Wall Street. The Swiss Market Index closed 1.2%, or 104.73 points, higher at 8,881.46. The Swiss Performance Index closed 1.2%, or 86.41 points up at 7,231.45. The Euro was up at 1.6464 SFr, and the Dollar rose to 1.2075 SFr. Julius Baer led the market's gainers, surging 3.5%, or 2.70 SFr, to close at 80.00. Earlier, Hungarian financial regulator PSZAF said it has granted Julius Baer Investment Management permission to acquire 10-15% of OTP Bank Nyrt. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse came off earlier lows, rising 0.40 SFr to close at 78.95, and UBS inched up 0.30 SFr to close at 63.00. Holcim shot up the index in a late rally, closing 3.5%, or 4.40 SFr, higher at 130.60. Luxury goods group Richemont rose 2.8%, or 2.10 SFr, to close at 74.80, extending yesterday's gains on the back of bullish Swiss watch export expectations from various brokerages. Insurers closed higher across the board, Baloise adding 1.6%, or 1.70 SFr, to close at 110.70, and Swiss Life rising 1.1%, or 3.25 SFr, to close at 286.75. Zurich Financial rose 2.25 SFr to 344.25, and Swiss Re climbed 0.70 SFr to close at 101.70. In pharmaceuticals, Roche was up 1.90 SFr to close at 210.00 and Novartis added 0.50 SFr, closing at 63.75. Earlier, Novartis's Sandoz unit gained EU approval for biosimilar epoetin alfa, for the treatment of patients with renal anaemia, as well as those receiving chemotherapy. Among other healthcare shares, Nobel Biocare rose 1.5%, or 4.75 SFr, to close at 329.25. Earlier, the Swedish Medical Products Agency (Laekemedelsverket) said improvements Nobel Biocare AG has made to the user instructions accompanying its NobelDirect and NobelPerfect dental implants largely fulfil the watchdog's demands. Other gainers included ABB, up 2.4%, or 0.70 SFr, to close at 29.70 after being awarded a 20 million usd contract from ATC Panels to manage service activities at its Moncure facility in North Carolina. Nestle added 1.2%, or 6.50, to close at 525.50. Outside the SMI, Gurit dropped 1.4%, or 19 SFr, to close at 1,360, analysts expressing scepticism the composite materials group can reach its margin target of 10% by end-2008 following a sharp downturn in the first half of this year. Neighbours Austria , co-hosts of the European Football Championships next year, saw Shares closed higher led up by extended gains in almost all constituents after trading remained buoyant on Wall Street as strong economic data supported Fed promises. The ATX closed up 1.47% or 66.13 points at 4,59.61. The ATX Prime closed up 1.89% or 41.81 points at 2,258.00. Financials Erste Bank and Raiffeisen International rallied on investor confidence returned to the European banking sector after ratings agency Fitch said it sees no further impact on European bank ratings from US sub-prime crisis. Erste Bank closed 2.49% at 53.19 Eur, while Raiffeisen International gained 2.51% to 106 Eur. OMV climbed for the second day to last deal at 45.55 Eur, up 1.11% also tracking positive sector sentiment as oil prices extended gains. Steel company voestalpine gained 1.71% to 60.01 Eur after the European steel sector also had a strong day as commodities in general rallied after a supportive Fed speech by chair Ben Bernanke. Shares in Telekom Austria closed up 0.11% at 18.92 Eur. Analysts at JP Morgan kept the telecom company at 'overweight' today but removed it from their Analyst Focus List in the absence of any near-term share price catalysts. Uniqa gained 1.36% to 22.30 Eur on the back of yesterday's revised profit guidance. Investors shrugged off a target price cut to 24.50 Eur from 28 by UBS on the back of uncertain investment exposure. Shares in BWIN gained 4.38% to 19.05 Eur after a positive court ruling in Stuttgart allowing the football team VfB Stuttgart's to advertise for the online gamer. Industrials gained on bargain hunting after the extended period of weakness; Andritz added 2.37% to 47.51 Eur, A-TEC Industries was up 1.60% at 133.61 Eur at the close and Mayr-Melnhof rose 2.86% to 79.20 Eur. Down to warmer climes now and the Mediterranean where we start with Greece this week and in Athens Greek shares closed higher, buoyed by the positive international market sentiment and the completion of what proved to be a solid first half year results reporting season for the domestic market. The ASE general index jumped 1.4% to 4,910.8 and the blue chip index gained 1.4% to 2,621. The mid cap index grew 1.5% to 6,320 and small caps ended 0.6% higher at 1,081.9. Advancers outnumbered decliners 186 to 68, while 75 were unchanged in average trading volume of roughly 365 million Eur. Construction company Hellenic Technodomiki spiked 3.2% to 9.66 Eur after announcing yesterday that its first half net profits jumped 84% year-on-year to 90.9 million Eur. National Bank of Greece rose 1% to 43.66 Eur after announcing solid first half year results yesterday. Today, Citigroup raised its target price to 52 Eur from 50 Eur and kept it a 'buy' on account of the results. Luxury goods retailer Folli Follie grew 5.5% to 29.96 Eur after announcing better-than-expected first half results yesterday where sales grew 61.8% year-on-year to 270.7 million Eur. Broker Goldman Sachs described the results as 'excellent'. Aegean Airlines gained 4.3% to 7.82 Eur after it was initiated by Citigroup with a 'buy' rating and price target of 8.8 Eur. Marfin Investment Group (MIG) lost 1.1% to 7.02 Eur and said it is bidding jointly with leading private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co (KKR) for Turkish shipping company UN Ro Ro, confirming an exclusive report by Thomson Financial News yesterday. Alternative ISP provider Forthnet jumped 6.9% to 10.5 Eur after posting its first half results and highlighting that its Q2 revenues grew. Cosmetics and household good wholesaler Sarantis closed 1.4% higher at 10.24 Eur after broker Piraeus Securities raised its target price to 12.4 Eur from 9.7 Eur and kept the stock at 'outperform', citing its solid second quarter results. Construction group J&P Avax's ended 1.3% higher at 7.62 Eur and published accounts showing that its first half group net profits came in flat at 14.9 million Eur due to higher taxation and financial expenses. Into Italy now where in Liman the market towed the 'regional' line and came out higher. The Mibtel index was up 0.91% to 31,282 points and the S&P/Mib up 0.87% to 40,187. Volume traded was an estimated 4.884 billion Eur. Among the leading gainers was Seat PG, up 4.04% to 0.4045 Eur. The share reacts to speculation on the prospects of private equity funds finding the cash to acquire the company. Bulgari was another leader, 2.29% to 10.30. Brokers said the stock was benefiting from recent positive broker comment. Yesterday, Deutsche Bank upgrade the stock to 'hold', from 'sell'. Among other luxury stocks. Tod's gained 3.03% to 65.54. Fiat was up 1.82% to 19.50 ahead of Monday's Italian new car registrations for August. Brokers said August's are less than other months of the year and investors see a fillip from Fiat's latest 500 model. STMicro was up 1.29% to 12.77, giving up earlier gains on positive semiconductor sector sentiment on worries later in the session over the US antitrust probe into its flash memory alliance with Intel. Autogrill continued this week's strong performance, up 1.99% to 15.37, supported by hopes it will buy UK duty free shops being put up for auction by Ferrovial. Industry sources said the auction has not started yet. Banks lagged the market. Brokers said the sector continues to react to market rumours on sub-prime problems at individual banks, though overall the worries on the size of the problem are subsiding. Unicredito rose 0.35% 6.29 and Intesa Sanpaolo was up 0.66% to 5.53. BPM, which rose sharply yesterday on merger hopes, was unchanged at 10.66. Oils were higher. Eni gained 1.72% to 25.38. Brokers say they see Eni or the Italian government resolving a dispute with the Kazakh government over Eni's development of the huge Kashagan field. Saipem added 0.92% to 27.49. Alitalia was down 1.34% to 0.836 after the airline confirmed its business plan late yesterday, including the selection of Citigroup to advice on finding an investor to take control of the company. Alitalia did not confirm a reported 1.5 billion Eur capital increase and its board will meet next week to discuss the plan further. One broker noted how Alitalia's market capitalisation is only 1.2 billion. Pirelli extended Thursday's losses, off 0.05% to 0.8245 on delays to a Brazilian clearance for the sale of its Telecom Italia stake. Telecom Italia rose 0.95% to 2.0825. Rounding out The Med' this week is Spain where in Madrid the market also closed higher. Heavyweight shares led the gains, while Endesa underperformed. The IBEX-35 index ended up 166.40 points at 14,479.80, having traded in the 14,370-14,529 band. The IBEX-35 index extended gains through the afternoon and was buoyed further by a strong start on Wall Street and after comments by Bush that the government would help some home owners facing mortgage payment problems. However, the index moved off highs after Bernanke failed to signal a hoped-for cut in interest rates. Leading heavyweights were higher, with BBVA adding 0.13 Eur to 16.89, Santander put on 0.12 to 13.40, Repsol YPF added 0.32 to 26.48, and Telefonica was up 0.33 at 18.22. Endesa underperformed, rising just 0.01 to 39.89. Earlier, the Spanish government confirmed it has eased conditions to be imposed on Enel to raise its stake in the utility. Utility peer Gas Natural was the only IBEX-35 share to stay in the red, dropping 0.67 to 39.08, while REE added 0.71 or 2.20% to 33.02 after reporting electricity demand in August rose an unadjusted 1.4% from a year earlier. Sogecable remained in the spotlight amid its ongoing legal dispute with Mediapro over football broadcasting rights, though staged a rebound from earlier losses, adding 0.53 to 27.78. Peer Antena 3 gained 0.55 or 4.18% to 13.72. Builders were higher, with Sacyr Vallehermoso gaining 0.55 to 29.10, ahead of its first-half results, due on Monday. ACS added 0.30 to 40.33, FCC rose 1.20 to 63.95, and Acciona added 6.55 or 3.69% to 184.10. Among smaller caps, GAM rose 0.76 or 2.95% to 26.48, after reporting solid first-half results. To the Nordic arena now and starting with Finland where in Helsinki Shares ended higher in a strong finish to a turbulent month. The OMX Helsinki 25 finished up 32 points or 1.02% at 3,174.80, a whisker below the index's level going into August. The OMX Helsinki index closed 0.96% higher at 11,636.97. Turnover was 1.44 billion Eur. The five most traded shares all finished higher, with utility Fortum the best of the bunch, adding 1.72% to 24.28 Eur. Nokia climbed 0.71% to a fresh high of 24.17 Eur, bolstered by renewed confidence in the economy and the company's announcement earlier this week of major strategic shift into web-based services. Other major gainers were Nokian Tyres, up 2.87% at 25.80 Eur, and Kone, up 2.66% at 47.92 Eur. Bullish comments in the local press by Kone's chief executive about the liftmaker's long-term potential helped boost the shares. Finnair, a typically lightly traded stock, rose in late deals to finish the session 7.17% at 12.86 Eur. In Norway , much the same story as Oslo Share prices closed higher, lifted by Petroleum Geo-Services on the back of a 'buy' recommendation at Investtech and by Golden Ocean due to firmer bulk transport rates. The OSEBX Benchmark index closed 8.09 points higher at 473.56 and the OSEAX All Share index was up 9.48 points at 548.42. Total turnover amounted to 11.66 billion NKr. Petroleum Geo-Services closed 3.25 NKr higher at 137 after Norwegian financial research firm Investtech advised investors that now is a good time to buy into the stock. Investtech said PGS has 'fallen back in a rising overall trend canal'. Golden Ocean added 1.45 to 30.1 and Jinhui Shipping rose 1.75 to 62.75. The stocks have benefited recently from rising bulk transport rates, which firmed further today. Norsk Hydro was up 5 at 216 on news the group has taken a 10% stake in Indian state-owned ONGC Ltd's deep water block in the Krishna Godavari Basin, and has an option for a further 10%, The Business Line reported. Statoil rose 3.5 to 168, Frontline (nyse: FRO - news - people ) was up 4 at 272.5, Prosafe added 1.4 to 88, Seadrill was unchanged at 108.5, Stolt-Nielsen rose 7 to 186 and Subsea 7 added 35 to 138.75. Aker Yards rose 2.25 to 70. The group has received a contract worth about 1.7 billion NKr from an unnamed international shipping company for two anchor handling tug supply vessels, for delivery in 2010 and 2011. Aker added 1 to 351. DnB NOR Markets says the discount on Aker is too high compared with its calculated underlying value. DnB NOR Markets started coverage of Aker wih a 'buy' and a 390 NKr/share target. Aker Kvaerner was up 1.5 at 146.5. Telenor was 2.5 higher at 107.5 after Russian mobile operator Vimpelcom - in which Telenor has a 34% stake - posted better-than-expected second-quarter results. DnB NOR Markets said the results from Vimpelcom had come out 'on the positive side for Telenor' Thursday. Penultimately we go to Denmark now where in Copenhagen Share prices closed higher, led up by GN Store Nord on rumours the group has found a buyer for its Resound hearing aid unit, by DS Torm on a raised guidance and consensus-beating second-quarter pretax profit, and by Novozymes. The OMXC20 index closed 6.58 points higher at 496.30 and the OMXCB Benchmark index added 6.52 points to 474.31. The OMXC All Share index closed 6.45 points higher at 485.86 on turnover of 5.08 billion DKr. GN Store Nord closed 2.75 DKr higher at 53.75 on rumours of a sale of the group's hearing aid division Resound. According to one analyst, there are rumours of new players interested in buying the group's hearing aid business Resound. There have been no comments from the company regarding any rumours, he added. William Demant Holding rose 6 to 482, Vestas Wind Systems added 13 to 370, Bang & Olufsen was 13 higher at 595 and NKT Holding was up 13 at 578. DS Torm added 8.75 to 236.5 after the shipping transport group raised its full-year pretax profit guidance to 800-820 million usd from 780-800 million usd previously as it posted a consensus-beating second-quarter pretax profit of 59.1 million usd, down from 80.8 million usd a year earlier negatively affected by lower net financials. Market expectations, according to a survey of analysts by RB Boersen news agency, were for a second quarter pretax profit of 42 million usd. The quarter's sales were 198.4 million usd, up 45% from a year earlier, while operating profit increased 2% to 58.6 million usd. DS Torm said it expects annual cost synergies of 10-15 million usd from 2008 onwards as a result of its recent acquisition of US shipping group OMI, and restructuring costs are seen at 15 million usd, the group added. The news prompted Jyske Bank to plan a hike in its 2008 and 2009 earnings-per-share estimates. AP Moller-Maersk A rose 800 to 70,600 and the B-shares added 800 to 71,500, and DS Norden was up 21 at 485, all benefiting from rising rates for the transports they carry. Novozymes was 17 higher at 647. The group said it has launched a new enzyme which reduces the level of the potentially carcinogenic substance acrylamide in food. Danisco rose 2 to 402 and Carlsberg B added 3 to 736. Elsewhere, Novo Nordisk B put on 7 to 608, Lundbeck rose 0.75 to 128.5, Coloplast was 6 higher at 519, Danske Bank added 0.75 to 224.5, Topdanmark was up 30 at 880, TrygVesta rose 5.5 to 434 and FLSmidth ended the session 14 higher at 516. And finally in Scandinavia we go to Sweden where in Stockholm markets followed suit and closed higher. The OMX Stockholm index closed up 1.01% at 393.25, while the OMX Stockholm 30 index closed up 1.01% at 1,213.25. Turnover was 23.51 billion SKr. The main sub-indices movers today were: materials up 1.59%, technology hardware & equipment up 1.50%, and telecommunication services up 2.30%. The major movers within these indices were: Lundin Mining up 2.33% at 76.75, Ericsson B up 1.51% at 25.56, and Tele2 B, up 2.44% at 125.75. Scania B closed up 3.57% at 159.50. Analysts have cut their consensus forecast for Scania's full-year pretax profits by 2.4% after the Q2 report, to 11.598 billion SKr, a survey by SME Direkt found. |
Spurred on by strength in the resources and financial sectors, the latest rise means the FTSE has gained in eight of the past nine trading sessions. In that time, the index has risen 7.6%. This strength will be tested next week when traders and fund managers return to their desks after the summer break. Trading volumes on Friday were again very low, with only 2.7bn shares changing hands. At the close, the FTSE 100 was up 91.3 points, or 1.5%, at 6,303.3, a gain of 1.3% on the week. The mid-cap FTSE 250 jumped 209.7 points, or 1.9%, to 11,309.2, up 3.1% over the five days. The volatile mining sector led the gainers as metals prices firmed up. Vedanta Resources rose 4.4% to £17.63. Rio Tinto closed 3.7% higher at £34.30. With crude at a three-week high amid worries over tropical storms and low inventories, oil stocks also gained. BP rose 3.7% to £34.30, Royal Dutch Shell added 1.8% to £19.34 and BG Group firmed up 1.5% to 794p. BG was further boosted by an upgrade to “buy” from UBS that followed a similar move by Dresdner Kleinwort in the previous session. Both upgrades are pinned on hopes for the Tupi field off the coast of Brazil, in which BG has a 25% stake. Barclays was again the session’s main talking point at the end of a forgettable week for the bank. The bank confirmed it would provide $1.6bn in financing to a structured investment vehicle it created for hedge fund Cairn Capital a day after it had tapped the Bank of England’s emergency reserves for the second time in a little more than a week. The stock closed 2.7% higher at 613½p as dealers decided a near-20% fall in Barclays’ share price in a little more than a month was overdone. Rolls-Royce rose 1.9% to 511p as the enginemaker won a share of an order from Singapore’s Tiger Airways, worth $400m. Whitbread gained 1.4% to £16.43 as Evolution Securities lifted its price target on the stock from £18 to £19.60 and predicted growth at its Costa Coffee and Premier Inns hotels division. Land Securities gained 1.6% to £18.12 amid talk that Laxey Partners was adding to its interest in the real estate group. Cadbury Schweppes was lower for much of the day after Lehman Brothers cut its rating to “equal weight” from “overweight” to reflect a lower-than-expected value from the sale or demerger of the group’s US drinks division. Cadbury settled 1.2% higher at 586p. In the mid-caps, Charter rose 5.2% to £11.15 as Panmure Gordon lifted its price target on the engineering group from £10.30 to £12.35 and said it was “mis-priced for several reasons”. Analyst Oliver Wynne-James wrote: “The interims set for September 12 are likely to be strong, and we are not expecting a slowdown in its underlying businesses.” Aggreko gained 4% to 535½p as Evolution Securities raised its stance on the temporary power provider from “add” to “buy” ahead of what it said would be “spectacularly good” interim results this month. Rightmove rose 3.6% to 583p as the online estate agency group reported a 60% rise in interim profits and said it remained confident about its prospects for the second half. Carphone Warehouse firmed up 0.9% to 314p as rumours returned that Best Buy of the US was looking to buy a stake in the mobile phone handset and accessories company. |
In Japan the Nikkei rose 2.6% on Friday as news that President George W. Bush will outline reforms to help homeowners with subprime mortgages sparked broad-based buying, and Dell Inc's earnings lifted high-tech stocks. Merger hopes lifted paper stocks after news that Nippon Paper Group Inc, Japan's second-largest paper maker, may consolidate cardboard production with its smaller partner Rengo Co to cut back on excess capacity in a mature market. The Nikkei advanced 415.27 points, or 2.57%, to 16,569.09. On the week, the benchmark gained about 2%. The market was propelled up after the news that Bush will outline reforms on Friday intended to help homeowners with subprime mortgage avoid default. The broader TOPIX index gained 2.55%, or 40.02 points, to 1,608.25. Technology stocks have been shunned by investors mainly due to volatile Yen's moves, to which many high-tech companies are susceptible. Trade volume picked up with 1.8 billion shares changing hands. Advancers swept past decliners by a ratio of nearly 16 to 1. In Hong Kong Share prices closed at record highs, with the key index ending a tad below 24,000 points after briefly piercing that level for the first time, as China stocks and local blue chips extended gains on continuing expectations for a surge in fund flows from China due to Beijing's eased overseas investment rules. Investors were unfazed by reports that mainland individuals may have to wait a bit longer to buy Hong Kong stocks due to infighting among China's regulatory agencies for control of the investment plan. China Mobile and banks led mainland stocks higher, while companies such as Guangzhou R&F Properties and Shanghai Industrial were also in focus after announcing strong first-half earnings. Shanghai Electric surged 42% on news of its plan to privatize its mainland-listed unit Shanghai Power Transmission & Distribution prior to a listing of the parent on the Shanghai bourse. Property stocks extended gains on hopes for an interest rate cut in the US next month, which could be mirrored here. The Hang Seng Index closed up 499.6 points or 2.13% at 23,984.14, after moving in the range of 23,487.07 and a new all-time-high of 24,089.0. Turnover was heavy at 113.11 billion hkd. The index's previous closing record was 23,577.73, hit on Aug 27, while its previous all-time intraday high was reached the following day at 23,750.25. For the week the index is up 1,062.25 points or 4.63%, while for the month of August it is up 799.2 points or 3.45%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises closed up 401.0 points or 2.88% at 14,338.84, off an all-time-high of 14,481.45, while the property sector index was up 722.86 points or 2.67% at 27,756.86. South Korean shares closed sharply higher Friday on hopes that the US subprime mortgage problems will be solved soon, with the KOSPI index jumping to near its pre-crisis level. The announcement of South Korea's current account surplus for July added to the market's conviction about the health of the economy. The KOSPI index closed up 31.54 points or 1.7% at 1,873.24, off a low of 1,844.09. The index gained 82 points over the week. Philippine shares closed higher for a second straight day Friday as investors set aside concerns about credit problems in the US to focus on the brighter outlook for the domestic economy. Investor sentiment got a major boost Thursday after the government announced that gross domestic product grew 7.5% in the second quarter, the fastest pace in two decades. The composite index closed up 44.95 points, or 1.4%, at 3,365.29, just off the day's high of 3,365.46. It gained 4.9% from last week. The all-share index rose 35.62 points, or 1.7%, to 2,145.62. There were 84 gainers and 23 losers, while 47 stocks were unchanged. A total of 2.0 billion shares worth 3.9 billion Pesos were traded. Bargain hunters chased stocks of conglomerates, with Ayala Corp up 15 Pesos, or 3.1%, at 492.50 Pesos. SM Investments Corp advanced 15 Pesos, or 4.2% to 370 Pesos. Manila Electric Co's (Meralco) A-shares, which only Filipinos can trade, rose three Pesos, or three%, to 103 Pesos. Its B-shares, which have no ownership restriction, also gained three Pesos, or three%, to settle at 104 Pesos. Meralco's stock will be declassified into one class of common shares on Monday. In Malaysia , markets were closed for a public holiday. Taiwan shares rose Friday on strength in neighboring markets in Japan and Hong Kong, with renewed interest emerging for battered financial issues. The Weighted Price Index of the Taiwan Stock Exchange rose 210.95 points, or 2.4%, to close at 8,982.16 points. In Friday's trading, the non-tech sector and financial issues stood out. Asia Cement rose 6.9% to NT$46.30, Uni-President Enterprises gained 5.5% to NT$38.25, and Cathay Financial Holding increased 2.7% to NT$73.50. Since Taiwan's rebound began on 18 August, the stock market has gained 11%. The food subindex has climbed 26.4%, cement shares 21.5%, and tech issues 10.7%. In China , China A-shares closed at a record high as investors gained confidence on hopes that government moves to allow individuals to invest directly in the Hong Kong stock market could be delayed, dealers said. Airline companies led the gains on the back of a rising RMB and continued merger speculation. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed up 50.94 points or 0.99% at a record 5,218.83, off an intraday high of 5,235.16. It ended the week up 2.18%. Turnover rose 156.76 to billion RMB from 155.04 billion RMB in the previous session. Market News International reported that Chinese individuals may have to wait a little longer to invest in the Hong Kong stock market than earlier thought, as government infighting for the right to control the overseas investment scheme has delayed its start. Domestic investors had anticipated the investment program would start on Sept 1, following guidance from the Bank of China, the only bank allowed to offer retail investors accounts for HK share trading. Airlines benefited from the recent appreciation of the RMB because of their large foreign currency liabilities. Shanghai Airlines Co Ltd surged 1.27 RMB or by the 10% daily trading limit to 13.93 after its net loss narrowed to 134.51 million RMB in the first half, against a loss of 137.05 million a year earlier, due to increased passenger traffic. Hainan Airlines Co Ltd rose 0.75 RMB to 10.52, after first half net profit surged 812% to 189.71 million RMB due to higher non-operating revenue. China Southern Airlines Co Ltd gained 1.89 RMB or 10% to 20.79, and Air China Ltd soared 1.75 RMB to 19.20. Both yesterday denied media reports of merger plans. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd (Baosteel), China's largest steel maker, gained 0.91 RMB to 18.49, after it said it will acquire assets from its parent Baosteel Group 'at an opportune time'. The company's general manager Fu Zhongzhe said in an online forum with investors that the assets to be acquired from the parent will include Baosteel Group's new plant at Pudong Luojing in Shanghai and Xinjiang Bayi Iron and Steel Group Co Ltd. China's securities' regulator had earlier approved Baosteel Group's plan to pay 3 billion RMB to buy a controlling 69.61% stake in Xinjiang Bayi Iron and Steel Group. Shanghai Power Transmission & Distribution Co Ltd surged 2.81 or 10% to 30.86, after it said the parent, Hong Kong-listed Shanghai Electric Group Co Ltd plans to privatize Shanghai Power. China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd lost 0.19 RMB to 16.91 despite saying that first half net profit rose 65.81% to 2.82 billion RMB. The Shanghai A-share Index ended up 53.72 points or 0.99% at 5,480.11 on turnover of 155.70 billion RMB and the Shenzhen A-share Index was up 19.15 points or 1.27% at 1,531.17 on turnover of 85.05 billion RMB. The FTSE/Xinhua China A 50 Index was up 196.72 points at 20,369.13. The FTSE/Xinhua China A 200 Index was up 148.49 points at 15,178.88 and the FTSE/Xinhua China A 600 Index rose 136.94 points to 12,935.04. Singapore shares closed higher Friday as investors snapped up banks, following a report that the Bush government is planning measures to reduce the wave of mortgage defaults across the US. The Straits Times index was up 71.76 points or 2.2% at 3,392.91. For the week, the index was up 0.7%. Gainers beat losers 543 to 219, with 915 stocks unchanged. Volume traded was 1.93 billion shares, valued at 2.39 billion Singapore Dollars. CapitaLand added 10 cents to 7.40 Dollars after Southeast Asia's biggest property developer said Thursday that it and its partners sold Chevron House, an office building at the heart of the Raffles Place central business district, for 730 million Singapore Dollars, marking a new record price of 2,780 Singapore Dollars per square foot of net lettable space. Other property stocks were higher, with City Developments up 40 cents at 14.90 Dollars, Allgreen Properties up four cents at 1.71 Dollars, and Wing Tai up eight cents at 3.48 Dollars. Shipyard SembCorp Marine rebounded from yesterday's falls, rising eight cents to 4.16 Dollars. Its peers were mixed, with Keppel Corp up 10 cents at 12.80 Dollars, Cosco Singapore up 13 cents at 5.05 Dollars and Labroy Marine down four cents at 1.98 Dollars. Singapore Airlines extended gains. The stock rose 20 cents to 19 Dollars on expectations it will charge passengers premium prices for tickets on the A380 jumbo jet, which starts service in October. Other blue chips were higher, with Singapore Press Holdings up six cents at 4.34 Dollars, Singapore Telecommunications up 10 cents at 3.64 Dollars and ST Engineering up 16 cents at 3.68 Dollars. Thai share prices closed 2.73% higher Friday as sentiment turned upbeat on a US report that President George W. Bush is to announce a series of measures aimed at easing the mortgage crisis. The market also held firm on strong gains across the region and foreign investors' buying of energy-linked shares. The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index rose 21.63 points or 2.73% to 813.21 and the blue-chip SET 50 index gained 18.30 points to 586.31. Gainers far outnumbered losers 287 to 57, with 111 stocks unchanged, on trade of 2.85 billion shares worth 21.5 billion Baht . Thailand's top energy firm PTT rose 14.00 Baht to 306.00 and its unit PTT Exploration and Production added 4.00 to 122.00. Top lender Bangkok Bank gained 4.00 Baht to 119.00. Thai Airways International edged up 1.00 Baht to 43.75. The kingdom's largest mobile phone operator Advanced Info Service rose 3.50 Baht to 93.00. Indian shares closed over 1% higher, cheered by strong first-quarter economic growth and lower inflation. Government data showed the country's first-quarter GDP grew by 9.3%, beating forecasts, fuelled by strong growth in manufacturing and services sectors. But the country's wholesale price index (WPI), a key measure of inflation, fell to 3.94% for the week to Aug 18, against 4.10% recorded last week. The Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark Sensex rose 1.30%, or 196.86 points, to 15,318.60 and the National Stock Exchange's S&P CNX Nifty rose 1.17% to 4,464.00. Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd rose 2.35% to 857.55 Rupees and Reliance Industries Ltd gained 2.73% to 1,959.50 Rupees. Also among the risers were state-run power giant NTPC Ltd that advanced 4.27% to 173.30 Rupees, while power utility Reliance Energy Ltd climbed 1.70% to 779.75 Rupees. Sentiment towards Reliance and NTPC was boosted after the Bombay High Court recommended daily hearings of the legal dispute between the two companies, as it belives gas and power projects are of national importance. NTPC and RIL are locked in a dispute over pricing the gas the former will supply to two of NTPC's power plants. The auto sector, which has been hit hard by higher interest rates, saw heavy buying. Banking shares posted modest gains as inflation, which fell to 3.94% for the week ended Aug 18, reinforced a view that interest rates may be left untouched in the near-term. India's largest bank State Bank of India rose 1.73% to 1,599.50 Rupees while ICICI Bank rose 1.44% to 884.65 Rupees. In the auto sector, truck and tractor maker Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd jumped 5.02% to 709.05 Rupees while Maruti Udyog Ltd gained 4.13% to 868.20 Rupees and Tata Motors Ltd added 2.93% to 701.85 Rupees. The Australian share market has ended on a five-week closing high because of gains by the major banks and miners. But for the first hour-and-a-half of trade there was no calculation of the key indices. This was because of a technical problem at Standard & Poor's, which provides the information to the stock exchange. The All Ordinaries Index was up 110 points to 6,248 and the ASX 200 added 112 points to 6,247. Harvey Norman surged 6.1% to $5.32 after it announced its full-year profit rose to $324 million. The retailer says its full-year profit, excluding items, jumped 49% because of an increase in sales of its laptops and flat screen televisions. The big miners added value because of higher metals and oil prices. BHP Billiton gained 67 cents to $38.42. Rio Tinto added $2.42 to $93.52. All the major banks were higher. The Commonwealth Bank climbed $1.29 to $55.15. Macquarie Bank was up almost 3% to $73.30. Western Australian lender, Home Building Society, surged 24% to $17.50 after the Bank of Queensland offered to buy the company. The Bank of Queensland gained 1.7% to $18.56. In New Zealand , Wellington shares recovered from the opening losses, going into close of the trading session, on the back of the strength in the markets in the Asia-Pacific region. The market remained weak for most part of the session, following a fall in Auckland Airport shares as doubts arose over the takeover proposal from Dubai Aerospace Enterprise. The benchmark NZX-50 index closed up 11.37 points or 0.28% at 4,118.97. The broader NZX All Capital index added 1.71 points or 0.15% to end at 1,114.44. Top stock Telecom rose 1.66%, while Fletcher Building slipped 0.34% and Contact Energy plunged 1.29%. Fisher & Paykel Healthcare lost 0.59%, Fisher & Paykel Appliances fell 1.07% and Sky City dropped 1.08%. In the retail space, The Warehouse Group rose 0.53% and Pumpkin Patch added 0.57%. Auckland Airport recovered from the low for the day to end 0.66% lower at NZ$3.03 on a turnover of 4.8 million shares. Bidder Dubai Aerospace Enterprise or DAE said that recent legal proceedings filed by Air New Zealand seeking a judicial review of Auckland Airport's aeronautical pricing process constituted a "prescribed occurrence" under the terms of a merger agreement. DAE said that if the parties were unable to reach an agreement by the end of a five working day consultation period, either party could terminate the merger agreement. Air New Zealand surged 2.49%. |
Wheat prices led the complex as renewed food-import demand put further pressure on extremely tight supplies. The cereal has gained almost 30% in the US market this month, the largest monthly gain since August 1973. Euronext.liffe November milling wheat on Friday rose in Paris to a record high of €272 a tonne. Later it traded just €3.75 higher at €258.5 a tonne on profit-taking. Chicago Board of Trade December wheat rose above the $8-a-bushel level to an all-time high of $8.07¾ a bushel. Profit-taking later sent prices a ¼ cent down on the day to $7.84¼ a bushel. Wheat prices surged almost 10% on the week in Chicago and more than 15% in the European market. South Korea on Friday bought new wheat cargoes to lift its inventories, and India is expected to buy more wheat in the next week. The sharp price increases reinforce fears of a spike in food inflation, as the food industry begins to pass on the higher costs to consumers. Cereals traders were also concerned about the southern hemisphere crop, in particular any weather damage to the Australian crop. The possibility that Russia might reduce its cereal exports to keep its domestic market well supplied contributed to higher prices. CBOT December corn lost 4.3% on the week to $3.42½ a bushel, while CBOT December soyabeans gained 2.9% to $8.89¼. Crude oil prices, under the threat of a new tropical storm and very tight petrol supplies, rose above $74 a barrel to their highest level in more than three weeks. In late London afternoon trading, Nymex October West Texas Intermediate lost some steam and rose 36 cents to $73.68 a barrel. The contract rose 3.7% on the week. ICE October Brent moved 45 cents higher to $72.35 a barrel, and gained 2.5% on the week. The Baltic Dry Index, a gauge of global shipping costs, rose to a fresh all-time high of 7,702 points, up 1.5% on the day. The index, seen also as a barometer of global appetite for commodities such as iron ore, coal and cereals, rose 10.5% in August on robust raw materials demand, port congestion in Australia and Brazil and longer trade routes. Base metals on Friday moved higher with the exception of lead. On the week, aluminium, zinc and lead posted small losses, copper was flat and tin and nickel gained more than 5%. Gold prices ended the week with a gain of 0.7% to $672.3 a troy ounce, while silver rose on the week 0.6% to $12.01 a troy ounce. |
Analysts said the comments disappointed investors hoping for a more definite hint that the Fed would move to alleviate the turmoil in financial markets. This saw investors pare carry trades, in which the low-yielding Yen is sold to finance the purchase of riskier, higher-yielding assets elsewhere. Mr Bernanke said the Fed would act as needed to limit the effects on the broader economy resulting from market turmoil and that it was ready to take additional action to provide liquidity and promote the orderly functioning of markets. On Friday the Yen rose 0.2% against the Dollar to Y115.70, gained 0.2% to Y157.60 against the Euro and rose 0.1% to Y233.40 against the Pound. Over the week the Yen rose 0.6% against the Dollar, 0.8% against the Euro and 0.5% against the Pound. As financial market volatility continued this week, there were relatively small changes in price levels on the foreign exchange markets, particularly among the leading currencies. The Dollar rose 0.3% to $1.3640 against the Euro on the week and eased 0.1 to $2.0170 against the Pound. The New Zealand Dollar lost ground as the financial sector was thrown into turmoil on news that three finance groups were being placed in receivership, bringing to seven the number of New Zealand finance companies put in receivership in the past 18 months. The New Zealand Dollar tumbled 3.1% to Y81.30 against the Yen over the week and 2.3% to $0.7020 against the Dollar. Fears of macro-economic and systemic risks from consumer finance companies in New Zealand, where there was a sharp dip in long-dated interest rate expectations this week, were overdone. Only 6% of household wealth was tied up in such non-bank financial institutions. If the market warms to the view, this should underpin the New Zealand Dollar. The Australian Dollar also suffered, falling 1.4% to $0.8150 against the Dollar and 1.8% to Y94.20 against the Yen over the week amid news of the collapse of an Australian hedge fund. The Swiss franc fell after figures revealed a surprise drop in consumer price inflation in August. Analysts said the figures saw the market pare back the chances of an interest rate rise after the Swiss National Bank’s September policy meeting. The Swiss franc fell 0.3% to SFr1.6470 against the Euro on the week, lost 0.5% to SFr2.4340 against Sterling and eased 0.6% to SFr1.2070 against the Dollar. In South Africa the Rand hit a four-week high against the Dollar on Friday, dipping below the key R7,10 per Dollar level, but retreated in late trade which some analysts suspect can be attributed to a worse than expected trade deficit for last month. By late afternoon the Rand was bid at R7,1606 per Dollar from its overnight close of R7,1343 and around R7,20 in late local trade on Wednesday. It was bid at R9,8136 to the Euro from a previous R9,7262 and at R14,4627 against Sterling from R14,3758 before. Finally, rounding out currencies this week in China where the RMB pared back on the week’s advance. Already making headway against the US Dollar for a majority of the week, traders pushed the underlying RMB back a bit after the People’s Bank of China set the highest reference rate since the end of the Dollar peg earlier in the week. As a result, the RMB traded down to 7.5465 against the US Dollar while paring back to 10.31 against the Euro and 15.21 in exchange for the British Pound. |
An independent dispute panel will rule on the allegations, originally filed by the US in February. Mexico, which has been overtaken by China as the second largest exporter to the US after Canada, joined the complaint shortly afterwards. Mexico faces a year-end deadline to eliminate special quotas on Chinese goods, aimed at protecting domestic industry from a surge of cheap imports, which remained in place after China joined the WTO in December 2001. Although Beijing earlier this year eliminated one subsidy programme challenged by the two countries, it also passed a revised income tax law that Washington says appears to provide new prohibited subsidies. The measures targeted by the US and Mexico include tax refunds, reductions and exemptions that allegedly subsidise exports and discriminate against imports in a wide range of industries. China’s trade gap with the US surged to a record $230bn last year and is on course for a new peak in 2007, prompting calls by US lawmakers for tough action against Beijing’s alleged unfair practices, including an undervalued currency. However, the WTO panel will take at best a minimum of six months to issue its ruling, and appeals and other delays mean a definitive verdict is unlikely before late 2008. The panel is the second to be set up to deal with alleged breaches of international trade rules by China. Another panel established last year at the request of the US, EU and Canada is examining whether China’s local content requirements discriminate against foreign car parts. In a third case, China on Friday temporarily blocked a US request for a panel to rule on its complaint concerning piracy and market access for US films, DVDs, books and music. *************************************************************** ProLogis, a real estate investment trust that operates industrial distribution facilities, said Wednesday it plans to spend $60 million to develop a 1.8 million square foot air-cargo center in Shanghai, China. The Denver-based company's ProLogis Park Hongqiao West is slated for a 48-acre parcel about 7 kilometers (4.3 miles) from Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport. A warehouse and two former manufacturing facilities already on the site will be converted into distribution centers. The addition of four new buildings will bring the size of the facility to 1.8 million square feet. Hongqiao Airport is China's fifth-largest by cargo volume, handling 360,000 tons per year, ProLogis said. By 2010, the airport's volume is expected to grow to 1 million tons. ProLogis shares rose $1.41, or 2.5%, to $57.70 in afternoon trading. The stock has traded as low as $51.64 and as high as $72.08 in the past year. *************************************************************** Fitch Ratings said it has affirmed its ratings on both the Bank of Shanghai and Agricultural Bank of China. Bank of Shanghai has a "BB-" long-term foreign currency issuer default rating (IDR) with stable outlook, a short-term foreign currency IDR "B", an individual "D" rating, as well as support "3" and support rating floor ''BB-", Fitch said in a statement. Agricultural Bank has individual "E" and support "1" ratings. Fitch said Bank of Shanghai's ratings reflect its strong local franchise, relatively good management, and above average, albeit limited earnings on an international scale. The rating agency added that the Bank of Shanghai's ratings are constrained by ongoing issues with asset quality, and high geographic, sectoral and borrower concentration. Its high exposure to real estate -- 44% of total loans -- is a particular concern in light of the Shanghai property market's volatility, Fitch said. Agricultural Bank of China currently ranks among the country's weakest large banks due to its greater directed-lending burden, more rural focus, and the fact that it has yet to go through major restructuring like its state-owned peers, Fitch added. The individual "E" rating reflects the bank's deep-rooted asset quality issues, low capital and earnings, as well as its underdeveloped risk management, Fitch said. Restructuring of the bank is expected to begin sometime next year, but it remains unclear what form it will take, the rating agency said. "What form it takes remains to be seen, but is expected to involve substantial carve-outs of problem loans and a capital injection, following which financial ratios will improve noticeably," it added. "Like its peers prior to their restructuring, Agricultural Bank is burdened with massive problem loans," it said, adding that weak asset quality remains a "major drag" on profitability. |
Summary From all signs, September will be another rocking month in the markets.
The next couple of weeks are pivotal, in assessing both the ability of credit markets to recover and the stock market's performance for the rest of the year.
Next week all eyes will be on the European Central Bank and The Bank of England as Interest Rates become the key issue.
The first three, data-packed weeks of the month will provide a volatile buildup to the widely anticipated 18 September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where many market professionals now believe the Fed will take a knife to the Fed funds rate, paring it by at least a quarter point, possibly more. Personally, I think they will go with half a base point - after all, they are trying to help the market and to go with half a base point errs them on the side of safety in the eyes of the consumer.
If you believe in historic market trends, then the odds are stacked against the stock markets this month. As an example, September has been the worst performing month for the Dow over its history, negative 59.1% of the time since 1896. Its average loss: 1.2%.
In the week ahead, there's a big batch of US economic data, including the key August jobs report. A number of big corporate conferences start ahead of the earnings season, and Fed speakers are out next week after several weeks of silence.
Starting next week, investment bankers will be looking to finance several major buyouts, including the $26 billion buyout of First Data Corp. by Kohlberg, Kravis, Roberts. The deal is expected to be financed with high yield debt and leveraged loans. First Data Friday hit a 52-week high just under its $34 per share takeover price, a sign traders are more confident in the deal's success.
In the upcoming holiday-shortened week in the US, ISM manufacturing is reported Tuesday, as is construction spending. Another good look at manufacturing strength and the consumer comes in the form of August auto sales, released by auto makers Tuesday.
ADP gives a sneak peak with its employment report on Wednesday. The Fed's beige book is also released that day, at 2 pm New York time. Pending home sales for July are reported at 10 am. On Thursday, productivity and costs are released, as are the ISM non-manufacturing figures for August.
Wholesale trade is reported Friday, in addition to the jobs report.
All told Ladies and Gentlemen, the month of September is going to be volatile; that is for sure. As I have mentioned in recent Newsletters, September will see all Risk Managers returned from their vacations and it is going to be very interesting to see just how much of a flight to safety they all take.
As always, I will keep you posted as/when developments occur and wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
Market Review Newsletter Compiled By
Adrian Page
Managing Director
Financial Page International
Saturday 1 September 2007
"Money Does Not Perform. People Do!"
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