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Global Weekly Markets Review - 10 November 2007
Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen,
I will start this week's review with a question.
What makes this noise? "Um, um, ugh, um, ugh, um, um, um".
Answer: The Chairman of The Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke!
Seriously, I sat Thursday evening watching his live speech to Congress and then when the Questions/Answers session came along, he used the words "um" and "ugh" more than any public-speaker I have ever heard. Reason being? He was stalling for time before he answered.
Yes, he was clueless when questioned about most aspects of the US economy currently and had the audacity to say that he sees growth as being 'sluggish' next year. Come on Mr Bernanke, 'sluggish' in my dictionary does not mean the same as 'recession'.
For once, Senators asked direct questions and it placed Mr Bernanke in a position where to answer those questions truthfully and with integrity, he would have sown the seeds for the market to collapse. Instead, a few of the questions he replied that he was not in a position to answer; a few he said that he had already answered them in his earlier speech (which he had not ) and the most amazing response to a question about how badly homeowners will be affected and what they are to do when they lose their properties because of mis-sold mortgages, he said that these people should have read the smallprint, but 'not to worry' because the Government was going to set up a helpline for these unfortunate people to call!
Come on, do me a favour please; get real! We are talking about the world's largest economy (at the moment) and answers like that are not what one would expect from the person holding the purse-strings in the US. It makes me wonder if The Fed' actually cares about the average person or whether it is just interested in bailing out Multi-National companies to the tune of hundreds of billions of Dollars.
Then to add insult to injury, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said on Friday that the 'economic fundamentals will shine through and save the Dollar at the end of the day'. How far ahead is he looking here, the year 2020?
Slowly but surely, those credit-market crunch concerns are starting to emerge and as I mentioned in July, they are taking their time to filter through. In my opinion, the aftermath could continue until the middle of next year because let's face it, all the banks in July said "we are above any problems, we conducted due diligence and we are safe".
Ladies and Gentlemen, the self-same banks that said those comments were the ones these past 2 weeks that have now been hit the hardest. Fortis Bank this week was the latest bank to 'tell the truth' and if we consider that only 11% of the World's banks have actually revealed the extent of their losses at the moment, there has to be much worse to come.
Hold that thought; this is going to be key in the coming weeks and months.
Okay, enough said about a jibbering Federal Reserve Chairman, his treasury 'henchman' and a credit-market that is all but in tatters, let's go and look at the numbers for the week around the world:
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 223.5 points, or 1.7%, to 13, 042.7, giving it a weekly decline of nearly 4.1%. Of the Dow's 30 components, 24 ended in the red, led by IBM Corp., off 5.5% and General Motors, down 5.6%. The S&P 500 declined 21.07 points, or 1.4%, to 1,453,70, a slide of 3.7% for the week. Especially hard hit, the Nasdaq Composite slumped 68.06 points, or 2.5%, to 2,627.94. The technology-heavy index has declined 6.5% since the end of last week as the year's high-performing tech sector endured another down session. Even high-flowing Google was not spared, with the Internet search engine off 4.2% at $663.50, down sharply from the intraday high of $ 747.24 hit just two days ago. . Volume on the New York Stock Exchange topped 1.8 billion shares, and for every stock purchased on the exchange, nearly three were sold. On the Nasdaq, nearly 3 billion shares traded hands, and decliners edged out advancers more than 2 to 1. Stocks were little swayed by an unexpected decline in the US trade deficit in September, which the Commerce Department attributed to a surge in exports. . The market also amazingly, displayed little interest in a monthly gauge of consumer sentiment, which fell further in November, to 75.0 compared to 80.9 in October. The index released by Reuters and the University of Michigan is now at its lowest level in 13 months, and under expectations calling for 79.5. Wachovia, the nation's fourth-largest bank, said in a regulatory filing its expects loan losses of as much as $600 million in the fourth quarter. . Wachovia's warning helped spark further selling of embattled financial stocks, but its stock, as well as others in the sector, rebounded late in Friday's session. Read . Shares of blue chip Merck & Co. climbed after the drug maker said it would settle most of its liability lawsuits tied to its Vioxx painkiller for about $4.85 billion. Qualcomm's forecast added to concern spurred Thursday by Cisco Systems Inc. that analysts' earnings estimates for technology companies are too high. The S&P 500 posted its biggest two-week drop since August after banks and brokerages wrote down holdings of debt securities and set aside more money for bad loans. Qualcomm dropped $1.66, or 4.2%, to $38.10, its steepest tumble since Aug. 15. The company lowered its profit forecast for fiscal 2008 by as much as 30 cents a share to as little as $2.03. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey had estimated earnings of $2.14 a share. The company's failure to sign a new agreement with Nokia Oyj, the world's largest maker of phones, is hurting licensing fees, which account for about three-quarters of profit. Qualcomm's report dragged down other computer-related stocks. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index declined 3.2% today, bringing its loss to 8.9% for the week. The gauge is still up 12% this year, compared with a 2.5% gain in the broader S&P 500. Cisco, the world's biggest networking-equipment maker, fell $1.05 to $28.58 after a 9.5% tumble yesterday. Apple Inc., the maker of Macintosh computers and iPod music players, dropped $10.10 to $165.37. Google Inc., the world's most popular Internet search engine, fell $29.87 to $663.97. International Business Machines Corp., the biggest computer-services company, lost $5.86 to $100.25. Earnings at technology companies in the S&P 500 may climb 10% this year and 24% next year, according to the average of analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg today. The 2008 profit growth estimate is the highest among 10 industry groups. Analysts have reduced their earnings estimates for companies in other industries in the past month. They now expect profits at all S&P 500 members to rise 4.7% on average this quarter, down from a 10.3% estimate in October. 3M slumped $3.32 to $79.51, its lowest since April. Goldman, Sachs & Co. said investors should sell the shares because a slowdown in US consumer spending next year may hurt earnings. Analyst Deane Dray also said productivity gains won't offset declining profits from its optical-film business. Optical film is used in liquid-crystal-display televisions and laptop screens. Retailers in the S&P 500 dropped 3.2% as a group after Bear Stearns & Co. analyst Christine Augustine reduced her earnings estimates for chain stores including Target, Macy's Inc., Family Dollar Stores Inc. and Kohl's Corp., saying a weaker economy is hurting demand from low-income consumers. Target, the second-largest US discount chain, declined $2.51 to $56.19. Macy's, the No. 2 department store company, lost $1.40 to $28.49. Family Dollar retreated 70 cents to $22.53, while Kohl's lost $1.58 to $47.58. J.C. Penney Co. dropped $3.38 to $46.89 after Augustine downgraded the stock to ``peer perform'' from ``outperform.'' Fannie Mae fell 80 cents to $49. The biggest source of money for US home loans said its third-quarter loss more than doubled to $1.39 billion as a deepening housing slump increased mortgage delinquencies. The net loss was caused by a $2.24 billion decline in the value of derivative contracts and $1.2 billion in credit losses among the $2.7 trillion of mortgage assets Fannie Mae owns or guarantees. Citigroup Inc. snapped an eight-day losing streak, gaining 20 cents to $33.10. The largest US bank by assets is being urged by some analysts and shareholders to break off and sell its brokerage, investment banking and retail operations, the Telegraph reported, citing analysts. Citigroup executives have said they don't intend to sell any part of the business, the Telegraph reported. MGIC Investment Corp. and PMI Group Inc., the two largest US mortgage insurers, rose after insurer Old Republic International Corp. disclosed it became the biggest investor in each company. MGIC gained $2.94, or 16%, to $21.30 for the largest advance in the S&P 500. PMI jumped $3.77 to $14.88. A private report yesterday said consumer confidence fell in November to the lowest in two years as rising fuel costs and falling home prices left Americans with less cash. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index fell to 75 from 80.9 at the end of October, the second-lowest reading of the past 15 years and just above the post-Hurricane Katrina reading of 74.2 on October 2005. The US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in September by 0.6% to $56.5 billion, the smallest since May 2005, the Commerce Department said. Exports reached new highs for a seventh straight month as a slumping Dollar and global economic growth boosted demand for American products. Prices for goods imported into the US rose 1.8% in October, the most in 17 months and more than economists forecast, as oil neared a record. Prices excluding petroleum rose 0.5%, the Labor Department said. Treasuries rose and yields on the shortest-term securities touched the lowest level in almost three months as concern over subprime-mortgage losses drove investors to the safety of government debt. Traders increased bets the Fed will reduce its benchmark rate a third time this year. The odds of a quarter-percentage point rate cut to 4.25% at the central bank's Dec. 11 policy meeting are 98%, up from 90% yesterday, futures contracts show. The Russell 2000 Index, a benchmark for companies with a median market value of $610.4 million, dropped 1.1% to 772.38. The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Index, the broadest measure of US shares, fell 1.4% to 14,709.29. Based on its decline, the value of stocks decreased by $265.5 billion. |
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The FTSE Eurofirst 300 slid 3.1% to close at 1511.57 ? the biggest weekly drop for European markets since stocks took a 5% tumble in the last week of July. A week of bad news for the banking sector saw Belgium?s Fortis plunge 13.7% to ?17.55, while Natixis nosedived 12.4% to ?12.34. Swiss wealth manager UBS plummeted 10.1% to SFr50.95 and domestic rival Credit Suisse lost 8.1% to SFr66.6, extending last week?s losses. So, let's look a little closer country-by-country and start this week in Germany where in Frankfurt German shares closed flat, withstanding a lower Wall Street opening and a lower-than-expected preliminary November consumer confidence index compiled by the University of Michigan. The DAX was down 7.07 points or 0.09% at 7,821.40 after trading between a high of 7,918.92 and a low of 7,792.82 The MDAX slipped 160.27 points or 1.57% to 10,041.16 while the TecDAX was down 19.79 points or 1.92% at 1,011.99. DAX futures lost 57.00 points or 0.71% to 7,853.50 while bund futures gained 0.40 or 0.34% to 114.64. Leading blue chips higher, Deutsche Post added 0.72 Eur, or 3.43%, at 21.73, on the back of yesterday's third-quarter figures which analysts said largely met investors' demands for more transparent reporting and more realistic outlooks. RWE added 2.05 Eur, or 2.19%, at 95.61. Greek electricity utility Public Power Corp (PPC) said that it is in early talks with Germany's RWE and is working on signing a memoRandum-of-understanding with the company for cooperation. Peer E.ON rose 1.82 Eur, or 1.35%, to 136.35. Siemens gained 0.75 Eur, or 0.73%, at 103.77, on the back of yesterday's full-year figures which showed a net loss of 74 million Eur mainly due to a 1 billion Eur tax expense related to the sale of its VDO unit to Continental AG, but more importantly all nine segments reached their margin target ranges in the fourth quarter. Continental was 0.94 Eur, or 0.96%, stronger at 98.44, after its shares were initiated with a 'outperform' rating and a 135 Eur target price at Credit Suisse. Continued pressure on the banking sector saw Deutsche Postbank lose 1.84 Eur, or 3.71%, at 48.15 as the worst performer on the DAX. Traders also said rumours had cooled slightly over a possible sale by its parent company Deutsche Post AG. M&A speculation pushed the share price up 11% yesterday. Hypo Real Estate was 1.20 Eur, or 3.25%, lower at 35.67. Commerzbank lost 0.87 Eur, or 3.23%, at 26.09, while Deutsche Bank eased 1.71 Eur, or 2.03%, at 82.59. Over on the MDAX, Rheinmetall lost 5.31 Eur, or 8.36%, at 58.19, as the worst performer as its shares corrected from strong gains yesterday on the back of a receiving a portion of 3 billion Eur tank order from the German army. At the other end of the mid-caps index, Arques Industries gained 1.17 Eur, or 4.82%, at 25.43. TecDAX-listed GPC Biotech was down 0.24 Eur, or 6.19%, at 3.64 as losses continue after the company said yesterday its third-quarter loss widened on surging costs, while investors continued to worry about prospects of the company's drug. Rofin Sinar added 2.51 Eur, or 4.74%, at 55.51, as the top gainer on the index after the company posted fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. Into France now where in Paris Share prices closed lower after the EU cut Euro zone growth forecasts and warned of the growing risks of the financial markets' turbulence, the US slowdown and soaring oil prices. The CAC-40 index finished down 107.45 points or 1.91% at 5,524.18. Among CAC-40 stocks, four closed higher and 36 closed lower. On the Matif, November CAC-40 futures were trading at 5,519.00. Midway through the session, the European Commission announced that it was cutting its 2008 growth forecasts for the Euro zone to 2.2% from the 2.5% given in May, and set a 2.1% growth forecast for 2009. For France, the commission said it now expects GDP growth of 2.0% versus 2.3% previously, followed by 1.8% for 2009. At the same time, EU economic and monetary affairs commissioner Joaquin Almunia gave a clear warning over downside risks. 'Clouds have clearly gathered on the horizon with this summer's turbulence in the financial markets, the US slowdown and the ever-rising oil prices,' he said. In France, financial stocks suffered some of the CAC-40's heaviest losses: Dexia was down 0.77 or 4.02% at 18.39, Credit Agricole lost 0.98 or 4.02% to close at 23.42 and Societe Generale was not far behind, falling 3.92% or 3.77% to 100.00. Vallourec, however, led CAC-40 losses, ending 12.50 or 6.19% lower at 189.60 after shedding all of yesterday's speculation-fuelled gains. UBS cut its recommendation on the seamless tube-maker to 'neutral' from 'buy' saying that the group may struggle to pass on rising raw material and energy costs to customers given price pressures in the US market. Meanwhile, on the upside, two of the CAC-40's four gainers were energy stocks as investors sought to take positions in the defensive utilities sector: EDF rose by 1.33 Eur or 1.62% to close at 83.25, while Suez was up 0.03 or 0.07% at 44.28. Tyre-maker Michelin rose 0.59 or 0.69% to 86.35, after Credit Suisse initiated coverage of the stock with an 'outperform' rating. Outside the CAC-40 Beneteau retreated from early gains on the back of a 30.7% jump in full-year net profit to 93.6 million Eur. The yacht builder's stock closed 0.23 or 1.19% lower at 19.16. Soitec lost 0.97 or 8.52% to close at 10.41. CA Cheuvreux slashed its EPS forecasts by around 50% and lowered its target price to 10 Eur in the wake of the semiconductor components maker's first-half results yesterday. Next door in The Netherlands , the picture was no better with Amsterdam shares also closed sharply lower. The AEX closed down 12.52 points or 2.39% at 510.69, after opening at 524.07 and reaching a low of 506.74 at 4.43 pm. Corporate Express was the strongest AEX decliner, down 6.23% at 6.77 Eur after US peer Office Depot said it will re-state earnings following an independent review of vendor-programme accounting. Randstad was off 5.70% at 32.57 after ING reduced its price target to 46 Eur from 48, followed by Corporate Express, which slumped 6.09% to 6.78 Eur after US peer Office Depot said it will re-state earnings following an independent review of vendor-programme accounting. Peer Vedior shed 2.52% to 13.90 and midcapper USG People slipped 3.72% to 17.84. ArcelorMittal lost 5.37% to 50.43. Among financials, Fortis was down 4.05% at 17.54, ING slid 3.41% to 27.23 and Aegon fell 2.12% to 12.91. Among tech related issues, Philips weakened 2.35% to 29.03, Ordina fell 4.66% to 11.86 and LogicaCMG lost 2.39% to 2.04. TomTom fell 1.62% at 54.10 after the company said it will postpone its Nov 13 EGM on the Tele Atlas offer until December and as Theodoor Gilissen initiated coverage at 'hold'. Tele Atlas, which cancelled its Nov 14 EGM, was 0.77% lower at 32.72. Royal Dutch Shell traded 1.66% lower at 28.45 while SBM Offshore bucked the general trend and rose as sole AEX gainer by 0.47% to 27.74 after the company said late yesterday that it received new orders and contracts in Canada and China valued at 950 million usd. Midcapper Fugro was also up, rising 0.18% to 61.06. TNT shed 1.06% to 27.05 after it said it will start a share repurchase program of up to 200 million on Monday as part of its previously announced 500 million Eur share buyback programme. Brewer Heineken traded briefly in positive territory to close 0.17% lower at 46.17, still outperforming the market as the issue recovered from recent losses following InBev's weak third quarter results yesterday. Heijmans fell 1.27% to 23.38 ahead of the company's trading update expected Wednesday after it issued a profit warning recently, analysts said. while local issue peer Grontmij dropped 5.53% to 27.17 Eur as SNS cut it to 'hold' and Rabo cut its price target to 31 Eur. Three local issue property stocks reported earnings results this morning: VastNed Retail fell 0.96% to 67.15 after the company lowered its full-year guidance while reporting an unchanged 9-month direct investment result. VastNed O/I was down 5.44% at 22.79 after the company reported an improved direct investment result, but lowered its full-year guidance. EuroCommercial Properties lost 3.86% to 36.32 after the company reported strong rental income growth at 14%, a Petercam analyst said, noting however that the property issue's direct result only increased slightly due to higher oeprational costs and interest expenses. 'We are positive the company will report good indirect results at H1 due to strong rental growth,' Petercam said, keeping its 'hold' recommendation and 43.30 Eur target price. The Dutch broker seemed particularly pleased at two recent acquisitions in France 'as the rents in France will increase with 5.1% as of Jan 2008 and the centres have huge reversionary potential and a possibility for extensions.' Among the few midcap gainers, BAM lifted 0.43% to 16.51 amid news its German unit won two contracts worth a total of over 85 million Eur. CSM added 1.28% to 23.67, and Vopak put on 0.21% to 39.08. In Belgium also, Brussels shares continued the negative trend with imaging technology group Agfa-Gevaert and bancassurance group Fortis leading a host of blue-chip fallers. At the close, the Bel 20 was down 59.19 points or 1.44% at 4,048.61. Agfa-Gevaert was down 0.38 Eur or 4.52% at 8.02 Eur. Fortis was down 0.75 Eur or 4.10% at 17.55 Eur. Theodoor Gilissen reduced its price target on the group to 25.00 Eur from 26.50 after its 'weak' third-quarter results, but kept its 'buy' rating as it believes the underlying quality of the company is solid and that the ABN Amro acquisition will yield clear benefits. Peer Dexia fell 0.72 Eur or 3.77% to 18.40 Eur and KBC Group was down 0.37 Eur or 0.42% at 88.33 Eur. KBC was upgraded to 'buy' from 'hold' at Deutsche Bank following third-quarter results. KBC posted third-quarter results which showed increased underlying net profit, in line with analyst estimates and, as expected, said the sub-prime crisis had 'very little impact' on income. Specialty materials group Umicore was down 4.87 Eur or 2.86% at 165.27 Eur. Brewer InBev was down 1.44 Eur or 2.41% at 4,048.61 with Bernstein cutting its target price on the company to 72.00 Eur from 76.00, maintaining its 'outperform' rating, following third-quarter results yesterday that disappointed the market. Belgacom was down 0.18 Eur or 0.55% at 32.55 Eur. KBC Securities increased its target price to 34.00 Eur from 31.00 after the telecoms group posted pleasing third-quarter numbers which left the broker confident that it will reach its full year guidance. For the gainers, steel cord and wire manufacturer Bekaert was up 2.51 Eur or 2.73% at 94.62 Eur after after posting a nine-month trading update this morning which showed a 5.6% progression in sales, at the upper end of analysts' expectations, on strong organic growth, partially offset by negative currency impacts. Bekaert was upped to 'accumulate' from 'hold' at Degroof, with its target lowered to 105.00 Eur from 110.00. Supermarket group Delhaize was up 0.43 Eur or 0.75% at 57.43 Eur. KBC cut its target on the stock to 70.00 Eur from 80.00. Utility Suez rose 0.03 Eur or 0.07% to 44.33 Eur. Outside the Bel 20, Tessenderlo dipped 2.15 Eur or 4.87% to 42.00 Eur, recovering ground from earlier double-digit losses, after the chemicals and plastics group was cut to 'hold' from 'buy' and its target price reduced to 45.00 Eur from 53.00 at Rabo Securities. Earlier, the group posted better-than-expected results. Degroof increased its target price on the share to 48.00 Eur from 43.00. KBC increased it to 50.0 Eur from 48.00. Over in Austria , similar picture where in Vienna Shares closed lower, as Strabag, Raiffeisen International and voestalpine led a broad retreat on the blue-chip ATX index. The ATX closed down 1.55%, or 72.09 points, at 4,587.42. The ATX Prime closed 1.30%, or 28.56 points, lower at 2,163.49. Strabag shares slumped 3.81% to 50.50 Eur, as the sharply downward trend among European construction sector stocks outweighed the impact of reports that Strabag is tipped to win a 2.9 billion Eur motorways contract in Bosnia. Negative sector sentiment also weighed heavily on voestalpine, which closed down 3.45% at 56.74 Eur, while several of its steel peers posted losses of more than 5%. Index heavyweight Raiffeisen International could not withstand the downward momentum among banking stocks and slipped 3.16% at 105.65 Eur. Sal. Oppenheim today upped its rating for Raiffeisen to 'neutral' from 'reduce', while Deutsche Bank raised its target price to 132 Eur and confirmed its 'buy' rating. Erste Bank also declined on the negative sentiment for financials, closing down 0.97% at 50.22 Eur. BWIN shares posted the sharpest decline on the ATX, slumping 3.82% to 26.42 on news that Germany's supreme court only expects to announce its ruling regarding private sports betting providers after the country's state treaty on gaming has already entered into force. Yesterday's sharp pressure on Europe's airlines stocks also extended to Austrian Airlines, whose shares reversed morning session gains to end trading down 2.80% at 5.91 Eur. OMV shares slipped 1.63% to 50.57 Eur, as MOL repeated its assertion that a merger between the two companies would be value-destroying and as Sal. Oppenheim reiterated its 'buy' rating and fair value of 54 Eur. Shares in Andritz closed 1.30% lower at 45.70 Eur, despite Sal. Oppenheim's assertion that the recent sell-off in the stock was 'overdone' and the broker's reiteration of a 'buy' rating and fair value of 56.90 Eur. Mayr-Melnhof slipped 0.14% to 76.57 Eur, as the company announced that it agreed to sell its Vienna-based recovered paper unit. Gainers on the ATX were led by Intercell, which closed up 2.74% at 26.24 Eur thanks to bargain hunting on the back of the vaccines stock's extended decline. Bargain hunting also contributed to Oesterreichische Post's 1.73% gain to 23.50 Eur. UniCredit today cut its target price to 28 Eur from 35 Eur, but maintained its 'buy' recommendation, while Sal. Oppenheim reduced its fair value to 26 Eur from 31.50 Eur and indicated it might upgrade its rating to 'buy' on the basis of Post's nine-month results, due Tuesday. Wienerberger shares rose 1.87% to 40.25 Eur. Analysts expect the bricks and tiles conglomerate to report very solid earnings growth when it releases its nine-month results next Wednesday. Zurich could offer no respite either, with Switzerland 's sharemarket closing more than 2% lower with a fresh round of sell-offs, particularly among financials, as investors were spooked by renewed credit market fears. The Swiss Market Index closed 188.08 points or 2.2% lower at 8,417.15, while the Swiss Performance Index also closed sharply lower, down 140.49 points or 2.0% at 6,911.39. The Euro was weaker against the Swiss franc at 1.6459 SFr, and the Dollar declined to 1.1226 SFr. The financial sector was clearly under pressure, with UBS falling steepest to close near the bottom of the chart, down 2.15 SFr or 4.0% at 50.95. Rival Credit Suisse was also at the bottom half of the SMI, slumping 2.15 SFr, or 3.1% to 66.60. Baloise fell 2.90 SFr or 2.5% to 115.40. Clariant ended the week at the bottom of the SMI, 0.71 SFr or 5.7% lower at 11.67, unable to shake off negative sentiments that had plagued it since it announced poorer than expected third quarter results on Wednesday. News of a new 180 million usd power order in Namibia did not lift the ABB stock, which was down 1.38 SFr or 3.9% at 33.60. Heavyweights also failed to provide the SMI with support. Pharmaceutical giants were weak, with Roche 2.80 SFr or 1.5% lower at 190.30, and Novartis down 0.65 SFr or 1.1% to 58.80. Nestle was also in the red, sliding 8.50 SFr or 1.6% to 534.00. Swatch Group, which did well earlier in the day on news of a share buyback programme, gave up its gains. It closed 12.75 SFr or 3.8% lower at 323.50. Earlier, the watch group said it will close its existing share repurchase programme of 400 million SFr as per Nov 8 2007. It also said it will prepare a new share repurchase programme of at least 400 million SFr. Nobel Biocare bucked the trend, closing up 3 SFr at 327. Julius Baer was the only financial to end the week higher, up 0.70 SFr at 91.70. Outside the SMI, Jelmoli was up 99 SFr or 3.5% at 2,949, after it announced a proposal to buy back shares. Let's see if Scandinavia could do better and in short, the answer is no. In Stockholm , Swedish Shares closed lower on widespread profit-taking. The OMX Stockholm index closed down 2.49% at 362.26, while the OMX Stockholm 30 index closed down 2.66% at 1,115.07. Turnover was 28.10 billion SKr. The main sub-indices movers yesterday were technology hardware & equipment, down 3.34%; industrials, down 3.58%; and materials, down 3.88%. The major movers within these indices were Ericsson B, down 3.27% at 18.32, Atlas Copco A, down 5.68% at 95.50, and Boliden, down 7.60% at 72.50. Securitas B closed down 3.70% at 78. Adjusted for unexpected one-offs, Securitas reported third-quarter pretax profits 24% below expectations. Alfa Laval closed down 2.45% at 497.50. Alfa Laval said it has acquired Finland's Fincoil-teollisuus Oy from Carrier Corp, a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp, for around 425 million SKr in cash. Fincoil-teollisuus manufactures industrial cooling products and has a turnover of approximately 375 million SKr, and 150 employees. Its primary markets are the Nordic countries, the Baltic states and Russia. Skanska B closed flat at 124.50. Skanska said it has been informed by the MTA New York City Transit that it will be awarded an order worth 400 million usd, or 2.75 billion SKr, to extend New York's number 7 subway line 'within weeks'. Lindex closed flat at 114.75. It said during the period Sept 1 to Oct 31, Lindex's same store sales, excluding the currency effect, increased by 9.9% compared with same period the previous year. Lindex said it decided to announce the sales figures, to make its shareholders' decision concerning Stockmann's 116 SKr per share bid, 'easier'. Neighbours Denmark were also in the wars as Copenhagen shares closed lower led by Coloplast AS and by the financial sector as credit worries spread following rumours UK-based Barclays Bank had suffered subprime-related losses. The OMXC20 index was down 0.56% at 494.97 and the OMXCB Benchmark index shed 0.95% to 471.02. The OMXC All Share index closed down 0.67% at 479.07, on turnover of 651 million Eur. Coloplast AS was down 3.95% at 474.50. Danske Bank AS fell 2.60% to 206.00, Sydbank AS shed 1.60% to 216.00 and Jyske Bank AS was down 2.47% at 395.00. Among the insurance groups, Topdanmark AS shed 3.03% to 735.00 while Trygvesta AS fell 2.32% to 379.00. Carlsberg AS was down 3.09% at 659.00, extending Thursday's downturn. The Times said SABMiller PLC is mulling a bid for Scottish & Newcastle PLC, which is under siege from a joint 720 pence a share offer from Carlsberg and Heineken NV. SAB is being advised by Morgan Stanley and Dresdner Kleinwort, the paper said, although a source close to the situation said neither bank has been formally hired. AP Moller Maersk AS was up 0.71% at 70,700. Novo Nordisk AS added 0.32% to 629.00 after Goldman Sachs raised its rating for the group to 'neutral' from 'sell', with an increased target price of 650 DKr from 590 DKr. Lundbeck AS gained 2.66% to 144.50 ahead of next week's third quarter report. Genmab AS was up 0.45% at 334.50. Danish daily Berlingske Business said the pharmaceutical company expects to sign several major partnership contracts in the future. Genmab's drug candidates Humax CD20, Humax Egfr and CD-38 all have blockbuster potential, the newspaper further said. Over in Finland , Helsinki shares closed lower led by Nokia amid uncertainty as the EU reduced its growth forecasts for the Euro zone next year. The OMX Helsinki 25 closed 2.34% lower at 3,215.05 and the OMX Helsinki all-share index ended down 2.80% at 12,018.43 on 1.388 billion Eur turnover. Nokia shed 4.24% to 26.20 Eur to lead the broader market into the red. The company's infrastructure joint venture with Siemens said it has won a 152 million usd contract from Uzbekistan's Coscom for the building of a nation-wide mobile network that includes the replacement of the existing one. Among industrials, Outokumpu ended 4.87% lower at 24.60 Eur, Metso lost 2.42% at 40.00 Eur and Wartsila B ended down 2.77% at 52.02 Eur. Outotec finished 3.08% weaker at 48.85 Eur. Outotec said said it has won an order to supply a complete flotation circuit to Boliden for the Swedish miner's copper ore project in Aitik. The order is valued at about 25 million Eur. Of the retailers, Kesko B closed 1.31 lower% at 38.49 Eur. Kesko said net sales in October rose 12.3% year-on-year to 867.8 million Eur. Stockmann B, which said October sales through its retail stores rose 9% year-on-year to 176 million Eur, boosted by new selling space in Russia, ended 0.75% lower at 33.10 Eur. Among forestries, Stora Enso R closed down 2.15% at 11.40 Eur, UPM-Kymmene was 2.03% weaker at 14.49 Eur and M-real B ended 0.57% lower at 3.48 Eur. Energy shares closed mixed amid raising oil prices, with Fortum adding 1.36% to 30.60 Eur and Neste Oil shedding 2.84% to 25.31 Eur. Banks closed also mixed, with OKO gaining 1.45% to 13.30 Eur, while Nordea's Helsinki-listed shares ended 0.95% lower at 11.42 Eur. Amer Sports finished 1.62% weaker at 19.44 Eur. Amer Sports' new biggest shareholder, Ajanta, is in for the long haul and may further grow its stake in the maker of Wilson tennis racquets and Salomon skis, the Finnish investment group's chairman said. Elsewhere, Sanoma WSOY ended 1.58% off at 19.98 Eur. Sanoma WSOY said it has agreed to buy Mood for Magazines, the Dutch magazine publisher, from Rozemarijn de Witte, for an undisclosed sum on Jan 1, 2008. And rounding out Scandinavia this week, is Norway where in Oslo shares closed lower, tracking losses on other major European markets, and led down by furniture manufacturer Ekornes on a profit warning, and by Norske Skog on continued liquidity concerns, while Norsk Hydro was higher on M&A speculation within the sector, dealers said. The OSEBX Benchmark index closed 1.34% lower at 507.30 and the OSEAX All Share index shed 1.25% to finish the week at 591.27. Total turnover amounted to 14.49 billion NKr. Furniture manufacturer Ekornes led the index lower, falling 15.47% to 94.25 NKr after warning that third-quarter pretax profits would come in at 81.4 million NKr, well below the consensus forecast of 124 million, due to foreign exchange developments and higher raw material costs. Ekornes is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on Monday morning, but today it warned that the market has 'not sufficiently taken into consideration the development in the foreign exchange and raw material markets'. Ekornes said its quarterly report will show a profits of 81.4 million NKr at the pretax level, 102.8 million at the operating level, and sales of 616.6 million. Elsewhere, papermarker Norske Skog extended recent losses, closing the day 5.46% weaker at 39.85 NKr, having now lost almost 50% during the last three months. The market is rife with speculation that Norske Skog is looking for partners or other ways to improve earnings. Norwegian tech stocks struggled yesterday, with Eltek closing 5.68% lower at 34.90 NKr, Tandberg falling 5.36% to 123.50, and Fast Search & Transfer losing 1.68% to end the week at 11.70. Elsewhere, Renewable Energy Corporation fell 3.65% to finish at 290 after Goldman Sachs reiterated its 'sell' recommendation on the stock, despite raising its price target to 137 NKr from 112. In the seismic sector, Petroleum Geo-Services closed 2.13% lower at 160.50, while Wavefield lost 3.51% to 46.80 and TGS-Nopec ended 3.87% lower at 87. Crude futures fell back from recent highs as fears of slower growth were re-ignited yesterday when US Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke made a speech acknowledging a host of problems facing the economy including a deeper-than-expected housing slump, a lingering credit crunch and the falling value of the Dollar. DNO lost 2.13% to 10.13 while StatoilHydro closed 1.70% lower at 178.80. According to reports from Russia, Gazprom chief executive Alexander Medvedev has said that the first phase of Shtokman development - in which France's Total and StatoilHydro are partners - will cost in the region of 12 billion usd. The weaker oil price and macroeconomic fears hit the oil services sector too, with Subsea 7 closing 4.61% lower at 145 and Prosafe falling 1.72% to 100.25. Earlier, Prosafe said it had won a 400 million usd deal from Murphy Oil Corp for the conversion and operation of one of its FPSO vessels offshore West Africa. Bucking the downward trend was Seadrill, which closed unchanged at 125.50 after Carnegie advised investors to continue buying into the stock on the back of new contract hopes. Yesterday afternoon peer Fred Olsen Energy (FOE) announced it had won a 575 million usd vessel charter deal and Carnegie said the 'great 525,000 usd per day' terms could filter through to Seadrill, which is expected to announce a raft of new contract wins in the coming months. FOE closed unchanged at 289.50. Aker Kvaerner closed 1.06% lower at 186. The engineering firm said it has been awarded two drilling equipment contracts by Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering in Korea, worth a combined 213 million usd. Elsewhere, Stolt-Nielsen closed down 1.31% at 150.50. Earlier, the shipping firm said it will pay an interim dividend in line with last year at 0.50 usd per share on Dec 12. Still in the shipping sector, Golden Ocean lost 3.10% to finish at 37.50 after announcing that it has agreed to sell six Panamax newbuild vessels for 353 million usd, earning a gain of 127 million usd. Despite today's losses, Golden Ocean is still up 47% over the last three months. It releases its third quarter results on Wednesday. Frontline lost 2% to close at 221, and Wilhelm Wilhelmsen rose 0.67% to end the week at 226.50. Norsk Hydro gained 0.61% to finish at 83, following yesterday's rejected bid by BHP Billiton for Rio Tinto. Golar LNG closed 0.37% higher at 135, Hafslund gained 2.76% to 167.50, and Telenor rose 0.20% to finish at 127.50. Down to 'The Med' now and starting this week with Greece where in Athens Shares ended sharply lower on continued blue chip profit taking given fragile international market sentiment and Wall Street losses, but Bank of Cyprus (BoCyp) took the heaviest hit. The ASE general index closed down 1.5% at 5,148.1, and blue chips fell 1.8% to close at 2,738.4. Mid caps ended down 1.4% at 6,572.1, and small caps finished 1.3% lower at 1,096.1. Decliners outnumbered advancers, 223 to 46, with 57 unchanged in heavy volume of about 835 million Eur skewed higher from block trades of placements. Bank of Cyprus collapsed 5.5% to end at 12.7 Eur after its third quarter net interest income missed expectations. Brokers also explained that the bottom line only beat consensus on lower taxes and investors rushed to lock in profits. Trading was suspended in Hellenic Telecoms (OTE) and its mobile unit Cosmote until OTE announces its intentions regarding the possible buyout of Cosmote minorities. An official announcement is expected late this evening. In other news on Cosmote, its nine month net profits were below expectations largely on higher than estimated forex losses from its Romanian unit. EFG Eurobank fell 4.2% to 24.9 Eur and Marfin Popular Bank ended down 3.8% to 10.56 Eur, both on the negative market sentiment. Marfin Investment Group closed 1.3% lower at 6.18 Eur after it said that it placed a 12.5% stake of food unit Vivartia at 26 Eur per share. Metals and engineering holding company Mytilineos closed down 3.3% at 38.38 Eur after a Thomson analyst consensus poll on nine month results forecast that net profits would be very weak in the absence of one off gains and a lower usd even though sales may rise 8%. Bucking the trend, electricity utility Public Power Corp finished 0.3% higher at 26.5 Eur on confirming that it is in early talks with Germanyâs RWE for co-operation and the possible signing of a memoRandum of understanding. Pharmaceutical company Alapis closed 0.4% higher at 2.45 Eur on sources saying that the main shareholder was placing a significant stake to institutions at 2.42 Eur per share. Neighbours Italy saw Milan markets close lower and were led by BMPS after acquiring Banca Antonveneta for 9 billion Eur, a price deemed by analysts as expensive. The Mibtel index was down 1.88% at 29,445 points and the S&P/Mib off 1.82% at 37,845. Volume traded was an estimated 8.557 billion Eur. BMPS fell 11.02% to 3.715 Eur after its buy of Antonveneta from Santander prompted analysts to downgrade the stock, and to query synergy targets the 2009 date for the deal to be EPS accretive. Citi, which has 'hold' rating on BMPS, said strategically the deal makes sense and is being carried by a strong management. Unicredit fell 2.93% to 5.105. The bank is reacting to concerns on sub-prime issues. Brokers want to see next week's results before taking a clearer stance. The bank denied any plans for write-downs. Intesa Sanpaolo was off 0.58% at 5.14. Goldman Sachs cut its price targets for BPM to 12.40 Eur from 13.00. BPM lost 3.34% to 10.16. On Banco Popolare, Goldman set a 17.80 Eur price target. Banco Popolare eased 0.27% to 14.85. Fondiaria-SAI lost 6.06% to 28.35 after its Milano Assicurazioni unit reported higher nine-month results. Fiat was down 5.08% at 19.81. Unicredit denied renewed rumours that the bank was was placing part of its stake, a rumour also around in the last month. Media stocks were sharply lower. L'Espresso lsot 3.34% to 3.3125. Seat PG fell 3.62% to 0.3675. Cheuvreux downgraded Seat to 'underperform', from 'selected list' after a further downgrade in its forecasts. Telecom Italia was down 1.89% at 2.1025 after in-line results. Lottomatica fell 2.03% to 23.20 after rising in early trade on in-line results, slightly trimmed full year guidance, and departure of CEO Bruce Turner. One broker said Turner had not been 'a good communicator'. Among energies, Saipem eased 0.22% to 31.36 and Tenaris lost 1.53% to 15.92, the latter bouncing after sharp losses yesterday on weak results. Eni lost 1.60% to 23.91 and Enel eased 1.42% to 8.175. Alitalia was down 1.95% at 0.834 after trade unions expressed mixed views on Air France-KLM taking control. Air France is seen as a leading contender to take control of the Italian flag carrier. Over in Spain things were no prettier where in Madrid the market closed sharply lower, tracking Wall Street, in moderate trade with many dealers away for Madid's public holiday and as heavyweight bank Santander succumbed to profit taking, while utilities outperformed. The IBEX-35 index closed down 214.50 points at 15,731.20, after trading in a range of 15,682-16,040. Equities opened higher, shrugging off overnight losses on Wall Street, with Santander leading the pack to extend yesterday's record close underpinned by the news of the sale of Italy's Antonveneta to BMPS for 9 billion Eur in cash. Santander fell 0.22 Eur to 14.78, off a high of 15.23, amid profit taking after Thursday's strong gains. Dealers were upbeat about the bank's Italian coup with Citigroup, which described the move as another feather in the cap, raising its target price to 20 Eur from 19. Telefonica was down 0.60 or 2.61% at 22.39, on continued profit-taking. The group reports results for the third quarter to September on Monday. Today's handful of gainers included Gas Natural, up 0.77 at 42.35, buoyed by comments yesterday from Repsol YPF COO Miguel Martinez that the oil and gas group considers its stake in the Catalan gas firm as strategic. Repsol YPF was also firm, adding 0.35 to 26.99, after Credit Suisse upped its target price to 27.5 Eur per share from 26.4. The broker maintained its 'underweight' stance. Utility peers also outperformed, with Union Fenosa adding 1.13 or 2.40% to 48.22, while Iberdrola slipped 0.02 to 11.88. Amongst the session's main losers were the constructors, with Sacyr off 1.31 or 4.31% at 29.08 and Ferrovial down 2.65 or 4.42% at 57.30. Acciona slumped on profit-taking after stellar gains over the last two sessions, off 13.55 or 5.60% at 228.35. And saving the best for last this week in Europe; from all the negatives, we did see one positive - Portugal ! In Lisbon, Shares closed sharply higher, outperforming most European markets in heavy volume, boosted by strong gains in Galp for the second consecutive day on bullish broker reaction to yesterday's news that its huge Tupi Sul prospect has more oil than expected, while conglomerate Sonae was also strong. The PSI 20 index closed up 279.21 points, or 2.14%, at 13,323.86 after trading in a range of 13,080-13,474 on turnover of about 774 million Eur. Galp soared 3.05 Eur, or 24.70%, to 15.40, extending sharp gains Thursday, amid a flurry of bullish broker reaction to yesterday's news that its huge Tupi Sul prospect contains significantly more oil that expected. UBS upgraded the stock to 'neutral' from 'sell' and hiked its price target by 37% to 12.7 Eur per share, while Morgan Stanley, which described the Tupi discovery as the world's largest since Kashagan in 2000, raised its price target by 38% to 17.1 Eur and maintained its 'overweight' recommendation. Sonae rose 0.07, or 3.47%, to 2.09, in brisk trade, as investors welcomed moves to increase transparency at the group by spinning off its Sonae Capital unit, and news that its Sonae Sierra unit is developing two malls in Romania. Yesterday, Sonae approved the spin-off to existing shareholders of fully owned unit Sonae Capital via a one-for-eight issue of new shares in the unit. Also among gainers, Brisa rose 0.04 to 9.81, off a 10.02 Eur high, as reports that it was shortlisted, along with Austria's Kapsch, for a electronic toll collection system tender in Hungary were offset by a Standard & Poor's downgrade. S&P lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on Brisa to 'A-' from 'A' citing upcoming investment in the Douro Litoral concession. Additionally, dealers said that Dresdner hiked Brisa's price target to 11.8 Eur per share from 10.20, reiterating its 'buy' stance. Meanwhile, blue chip EDP shed 0.01 to 4.84, off an earlier high of 5.00, amid growing indications from the Portuguese power company that it may list its fast-growing renewables business next year. Earlier, EDP CEO Antonio Mexia said the company sold 20% of REN in October at above the 2.75 Eur issue price of the grid operator's IPO in July. REN was flat at 3.53. |
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At the close, the FTSE 100 index had slipped 77 points to 6,304.9, in a volatile session, which saw a high of 6,442.9, and a low of 6,268.9, with the FTSE 250 index off 172.9 at 10,859.1. Volume was below average with 2.961 billion shares changing hands in 809,892 deals. Investors were also rattled by Barclays news. Earlier rumours flew around that the UK's biggest bank was set to announce an asset write-down of up to 10 billion usd, something which Barclays has denied. 'There is no substance to the rumour,' a Barclays spokesman said. The spokesman also denied separate rumours that Barclays chief executive John Varley is preparing to resign, and that the bank is preparing an emergency rights issue. Barclays shares ended the session down 11-3/4 pence at 474-1/4. Its peers also slipped, with Alliance & Leicester 12 pence lower at 659-1/4, and HBOS down 16 at 752-3/4. In the insurance sector, Friends Provident closed down 11.5 pence at 148.7, as UBS trimmed its target to 175 pence from 210 after resuming coverage on the pension group with a 'neutral' rating. Elsewhere, shares in Yell fell amid vague talk Morgan Stanley is placing shares in the directories group, with the shares ending down 6-1/2 pence at 415-1/4. No details of the placing were immediately available. Meanwhile, BT Group, eased 11 pence to 290-3/4, after UBS cut its target price to 285 pence from 295 following yesterday's interims. And a broker downgrade provided the spur for shares in Rentokil Initial, which dropped 7.1 pence to 158.55, after Exane BNP Paribas downgraded the group to 'neutral' from 'outperform' after the company's third-quarter results yesterday. Turning to the gainers, commodities were in focus, with M&A activity helping to drive the sector. Rio Tinto ended the session up over 6%, or 328 pence to 5,624, following rumours that a Chinese consortium was counterbidding for the group in a deal worth 150 billion usd after yesterday's rejected 3 for 1 share offer from BHP Billiton. Analysts do not expect BHP to go hostile, despite Rio rejecting its initial offer. They think it is more likely to raise its share offer to around 3.5-for-1. BHP Billiton closed down 28 pence at 1,627-1/2. Meanwhile, BG Group finished up 16 pence at 1,005 after extremely positive test results from the Brazilian Tupi prospect operated by Brazilian state-owned energy group Petroleo Brasileiro, in which it holds a 25% stake. In light of the results -- which could yield 5-8 billion barrels of recoverable oil -- Credit Suisse raised its rating to 'outperform' and its price target to 1,100 pence, while Deutsche Bank reiterated its 'buy' rating and upped its target to 1,090 pence. And, British Energy closed 10 pence firmer at 521-1/2 following recent weakness brought on by the closure of nuclear reactors due to corrosion and helped by positive broker comment from Goldman Sachs. Elsewhere, Land Securities ended 14 pence higher at 1,504 after The Times reported that the group is planning to demerge its Trillium outsourcing business into a separate company worth about 1 billion stg. Among midcaps risers, a broker upgrade helped boost shares in SSL International finished 12-3/4 pence ahead at 505, with Goldman Sachs lifting its recommendation to 'buy' from 'neutral'. Also benefiting from positive broker sentiment was Dairy Crest, up 17 pence at 607-1/2, with UBS lifting its rating on the group to 'buy' from 'neutral'. On the downside, Misys slipped 14-1/4 to end at 223 after UBS downgraded the software group to 'sell' from 'neutral' and cut its target to 220 pence. |
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Japanese shares closed sharply lower Friday after a volatile session, with the benchmark Nikkei index at a near-three-month low on mounting credit crisis fears. Banking shares led the decliners on concern about the outlook for the US financial industry. A stronger Yen also hit the share market as a firmer Yen has the potential to reduce exporters' earnings. The blue-chip Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed down 188.15 points or 1.2% at 15,583.42, off a high of 15,834.97 and a low of 15,566.12. It was the index's weakest close since Aug 17, when it finished at 15,273.68. The index lost 5.7% over the week. The broader TOPIX index declined 22.59 points or 1.5% to 1,494.35, after moving between 1,493.38 and 1,525.01. The index declined 6.6% over the week. Decliners outnumbered gainers 1,074 to 537, with 108 issues unchanged. Volume dropped to 2.32 billion shares from 2.45 billion on Thursday. The Bank of Japan's policy board is due to meet next week and is widely expected to announce Tuesday no change in its key interest rate, in view of the shaky financial markets. In the second quarter GDP shrank by 0.3% from the first quarter, contracting at an annual rate of 1.2%. Among banking shares, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell 46 Yen or 4.8% to 920, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group declined 47,000 Yen or 5.9% to 750,000, Resona Holdings dropped 8,000 Yen or 4.2% to 182,000 and Mizuho Financial Group was down 32,000 Yen or 5.7% at 531,000. Among exporters, Sony slipped 40 Yen or 0.7% to 5,350, Canon lost 80 Yen or 1.4% at 5,580, Toyota Motor shed 20 Yen or 0.3% at 6,150 and Nissan Motor lost 47 Yen or 3.8% at 1,181. Steel makers were down, with Nippon Steel falling 25 Yen or 3.6% to 679, JFE Holdings losing 80 Yen or 1.3% at 6,100 and Sumitomo Metal Industries 12 Yen or 2.4% lower at 485. Toray Industries climbed 36 Yen or 4.4% to 850 after the company said early in the afternoon that its operating profit for the fiscal first half to September rose 2.6% from a year earlier amid strong sales of synthetic resin used in the automotive and consumer electronics sectors. The company also attributed its improved performance to higher sales of industrial-use film and a strong contribution from its engineering operations. In Hong Kong Share prices closed little changed after an erratic session, as worries over volatility on Wall Street and fears of new tightening measures in China prompted investors to cut positions in late trade. Property stocks helped the key index finish in positive territory after HSBC and Hang Seng Bank announced quarter point cuts in prime lending rates, making mortgages cheaper. China oil stocks were up following target price upgrades by Goldman Sachs, with Sinopec (NYSE:SNP) outperforming the sector. Mainland property firms were hit by fears of possible new measures by Beijing to control credit growth. The Hang Seng Index closed up 23.19 points or 0.08% at 28,783.41, off a low of 28,408.53 and high of 29,249.95. For the week, the index is down 1,684.93 points or 5.5%. Turnover was 133.23 billion hkd. The property sub-index was up 306.5 points or 0.85% at 36,527.13, off a high of 37,438.80. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index was down 12.78 points at 17,704.08. Among major blue chips, HSBC lost 1.4 hkd or 0.98% at 141.0, China Mobile was down 0.9 hkd or 0.65% at 137, HKEx down 3.8 hkd or 1.55% at 241.6 and China Life down 0.85 hkd or 1.88% at 44.4. Hutchison Whampoa was up 2.15 hkd or 2.5% at 88.3 and Sinopec was up 0.52 hkd or 4.99% at 10.94. South Korean shares closed higher Friday after an erratic session, lifted by bargain-hunting in banking stocks recently battered by the US credit crisis, with solid gains in SK Telecom lending support. SK Telecom extended its rally for a fourth day on hopes it will take over Hanaro Telecom to gain entry into the fixed-line broadband service market. The market surged nearly 2% in opening trade on relief that the Dow managed to rein in steep losses overnight, and as oil prices pulled back from record levels near 100 US Dollars per barrel. But the upside was limited by foreign investor selling every time the KOSPI moved above 2,000 points. The KOSPI index closed up 10.91 points or 0.6% at 1,990.47, after trading between 2,017.37 and 1,968.86. Trading was moderate ahead of the weekend, with 359 million shares worth 8.6 trillion Won changing hands. Advancers outpaced decliners by 416 to 379. Institutions and retail investors were net buyers of shares worth 540.2 billion Won and 116.2 billion Won each while foreign investors were net sellers of 868.6 billion Won in shares. SK Telecom jumped 9,500 Won or 4.1% to 239,000 Won, off a high of 244,500 Won in early trade. The stock extended gains of 17% since Tuesday. The nation's largest mobile carrier said it is considering bidding for Hanaro Telecom, the broadband service provider. The possibility of SK Telecom acquiring Hanaro Telecom sparked strong interest in other telecom stocks. KT rose 3,050 Won or 7.3% to 44,850 Won and its affiliate KTF jumped 3,250 Won or 11.1% to 32,500 Won on hopes KT may integrate with KTF to sell more bundling services to attract more customers. Banks enjoyed strong bargain-hunting interest as the recent selling sparked by fresh subprime fears was deemed as overdone. Local banks have limited exposure to soured US mortgage loans. Kookmin Bank jumped 2,900 Won or 4.3% to 69,800 Won and Shinhan Financial rose 1,500 Won or 2.9% to 53,000 Won. The nation's major retailer Shinsegae rose 48,000 Won or 6.9% to 741,000 Won as investors cheered a series of analyst upgrades. Woori Investment & Securities raised the target price for the stock to 840,000 Won from the previous 775,000 Won, citing stronger profitability in the coming quarters from its strategy to sell higher profit-margin products under its own brand name. China A-shares closed lower after seesawing during the session amid worries that the authorities may announce new economic tightening measures, dealers said. The central bank said in a report released late yesterday that credit and investment growth are still posing problems for the economy. Stocks failed to recover from a nearly 5% plunge yesterday, with metal stocks leading the decline today. However, banks and Sinopec rebounded, providing a cushion to the Shanghai market in particular. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed down 14.48 points or 0.27% at 5,315.54, ending the week down 8%. Turnover fell to 80.76 billion Yuan from 83.76 billion Yuan in the previous session. The Shanghai A-share Index fell 14.83 points or 0.27% to 5,579.12 and the Shenzhen A-share Index was down 21.25 points or 1.54% at 1,362.44. The FTSE/Xinhua China A 50 Index was down 139.46 points at 20,453.32 and the FTSE/Xinhua China A 200 Index slid 189.20 points to 14,565.23. China B-shares also closed lower as sentiment remained weak after Thursday's sharp falls. Heavyweight Shanghai Zhenhua Port Machinery Co Ltd declined after clarifying that a reported 2 billion Yuan net profit estimate for this year is only a management target. The Shanghai B-share Index fell 4.52 points or 1.27% to 352.43 on turnover of 884.06 million usd and the Shenzhen B-share Index fell 11.07 points or 1.48% at 737.71 on turnover of 623.80 million hkd. In Shanghai, Zhenhua Port Machinery fell 0.08 usd to 3.033. Huaxin Cement Co Ltd tumbled 0.204 usd to 3.296, adding to a 5.38% loss a day earlier. In Shenzhen, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Co Ltd shed 0.44 hkd to 8.38. Bengang Steel Plates Co Ltd slid 0.32 hkd to 8.03. The FTSE/Xinhua China B 35 Index was down 206.05 points at 12,027.10. In Taiwan , Share prices closed higher on a mild rebound amid speculation that government funds lent support to the market after Thursday's selldown. Investors, who had barely recovered from yesterday's panic selling, refrained from heavy buying after US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke cautioned that economic growth is to slow noticeably in the coming months, they added. The weighted index closed up 33.34 points or 0.37% at 8,970.92, off a low of 8,853.81 and a high of 9,016.73, on turnover of 154.44 billion twd. Decliners led risers 1,163 to 944, with 271 stocks unchanged. A total of 63 stocks closed limit-down and 11 were limit-up. The heavily weighted financial sector was up 0.58% while electronics lost 0.01%. For the week, the index posted a cumulative loss of 302.17 points, or 3.26%. The big decline in margin lending positions yesterday meant that many investors were scared enough that they cash out of the market, Fang said, adding that the chance of the index reaching 10,000 points in the near future is becoming increasingly remote. There was reason to believe that government funds bought into market heavyweights such as TSMC to lend support to the market and boost the ruling party's chances in next year's parliamentary and presidential elections, he said. However, that will not prevent the market from remaining vulnerable to further volatility on Wall Street due to a worrying combination of US credit market woes, slower economic growth, and rising oil prices, Fang added. Significant gains were made by select old-economy industrials, with cement rising 2.94%, plastics/petrochemicals up 1.91%, and food gaining 1.12%. The construction sector was down 3.66%, textiles lost 2.17%, and paper fell 0.42%. The Taiwan Dollar closed the morning at 32.241/Dollar, compared with the previous close of 32.308. TSMC closed up 0.40 twd at 62.30 while UMC fell 0.10 to 19.25. LCD makers had a mixed performance after reporting October results even though the industry is to enjoy bright earning prospects well into 2008. Chi Mei gained 2.75 twd or 5.84% to 49.85 while Innolux was limit-down 9.00 twd or 6.72% at 125.00. AU Optronics rose 0.60 to 67.80 and Chunghwa Picture was up 0.15 at 12.20. Chinatrust Financial gained 0.60 to 22.40, First Financial climbed 0.30 to 24.55, and Hua Nan Financial was 0.35 higher at 22.45 after the three firms reported their October results. Shin Kong Financial slid 0.80 twd or 3.07% to 25.25, extending its recent declines due to a big writedown for the September quarter. Cathay Financial was 0.20 lower at 76.40. Taiwan Cement was up 2.40 twd or 4.80% at 52.40, Nan Ya Plastics advanced 2.70 twd or 3.04% to 91.50, and Uni-President moved up 1.00 twd or 2.19% at 46.60. In Manila, Philippine Shares ended a volatile week in positive territory Friday with the mining sector still a bright spot as rising metal prices provided relief to investors confronted by soaring oil prices and a gloomy outlook for the US economy. Solid gains in mining stocks offset losses in the broader market, with Lepanto advancing after announcing Hong Kong-listed Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd. is to acquire a 20% stake in its gold and copper mining project for $70 million. Sector leader Philex Mining also rebounded from Thursday's downturn as gold prices rose for the fifth day overnight to a fresh 27-year peak, with investors again turning to the precious metal as an alternative to a weakening Dollar. The composite index finished up 11.56 points or 0.3% at 3,703.66, rebounding from a three-week low recorded Thursday. It fell 1.5% from last week. The broader all-share index slipped 2.53 points or 0.1% to 2,288.70. Decliners narrowly beat advancers 48 to 47, while 62 stocks were flat. A total of 4.2 billion shares worth P3.8 billion changed hands. Lepanto's A-shares, which only Filipinos can trade, surged 7 centavos or 21.2% to 40 centavos. Its B-shares, open to foreigners, advanced 7 centavos or 19% to 44 centavos. Singapore shares closed sharply lower Friday, led by banks on concerns about the US subprime crisis and a slowdown in the world's biggest economy. The market also fell as investors caught up on the selling that engulfed Asian markets Thursday when Singapore was closed for a public holiday. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments overnight that US economic growth will slow significantly in coming months weighed on sentiment. The benchmark Straits Times Index closed down 73.34 points or 2% at 3,599.67 after moving between 3,580.36 and 3,632.76. The index shed 3.1% for the week. Decliners beat gainers 691 to 221 with 821 stocks unchanged. Volume was 2.29 billion shares valued at 3.22 billion Singapore Dollars. Singapore banks fell on concerns that they may have to set aside additional reserves for their collateralized debt obligation (CDO) investments as global financial institutions brace for more subprime-related writedowns. DBS Group shed 50 cents to 20.50 Dollars, United Overseas Bank fell 40 cents to 20.10 Dollars and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp slipped 15 cents to 8.65 Dollars. Property stocks were lower as investors worried that the government's recent removal of deferred payments on purchases of homes under construction may lead to a correction in housing prices. CapitaLand declined 20 cents to 7.40 Dollars, and City Developments fell 20 cents to 14.50 Dollars. Commodity-related stocks gained with the rally in commodity prices. Noble Group, a Hong Kong-based commodities supplier, rose 15 cents to 2.41 Dollars on expectations it will report strong third-quarter results on Monday, helped by solid demand for iron ore and coal in China. Olam International, a Singapore-based supplier of agricultural commdities, gained 10 cents to 3.30 Dollars. The company will release its third-quarter results on Wednesday. Palm plantation companies listed in Singapore advanced on expectations global crude palm oil demand will remain strong in the next few years, putting further pressure on the limited supply of the commodity. Indofood Agri was up 13 cents at 2.25 Dollars, and Golden Agri added 21 cents to 2.18 Dollars. Changtian Plastic & Chemical Ltd, a China-based company that manufactures adhesive tapes, started trading today. It was last quoted at 60.50 cents, above its initial public offering price of 47 cents. Saizen REIT, an operator residential apartments in Japan, also started trading today. It closed at 86 cents, down from its IPO price of 1 Dollar Indonesian shares closed higher Friday, buoyed by gains by miners and oil producers on expectations rising commodity prices will boost earnings this year. Resource stocks were also supported by speculation they may pay interim dividends following strong nine-month results, said Poltak Hotradero, analyst at Europeregrine Capital. Nickel and gold miner Antam finished the session 10.5% higher after gold prices in New York rose for the fifth day in a row Thursday to their highest level in more than 27 years. Investors are turning to the precious metal as an alternative to the plunging US Dollar. The composite index closed up 29.44 points or 1.1% at 2,707.67 on volume of 4.34 billion shares valued at 8.29 trillion Rupiah. For the week, the index gained 55.19 points or 2.1%. The LQ-45 index closed up 6.96 points at 598.76. Gainers led decliners 107 to 71, with 62 stocks unchanged. Antam surged 425 Rupiah or 10.5% to 4,475, nickel miner Inco added 550 Rupiah or 0.5% at 106,050 and tin miner Timah rose 200 Rupiah or 0.8% to a fresh record high of 24,600 Rupiah. The stock touched an intraday high of 24,900 during the session. Among coal producers, Bumi Resources rose 200 Rupiah or 3.9% to 5,350 and Bukit Asam added 650 Rupiah or 6.0% at 11,500. Plantation stocks were mostly higher, with Lonsum adding 100 Rupiah or 0.9% at 11,100, Bakrie Sumatra rising 100 Rupiah or 4.7% to 2,250 and Sampoerna Agro rising 100 Rupiah or 3.7% to 2,825. Instant noodle maker Indofood Sukses Makmur soared as the company moved to complete its acquisition of London Sumatra (Lonsum). Late last month, Indofood's shareholders approved a plan to acquire Lonsum for 5.7 trillion Rupiah. Indofood is buying Lonsum through Singapore-based subsidiary Indofood Agri Resources Ltd. Indofood rose 150 Rupiah or 6.3% to 2,525. In the oil and gas sector, Energi Mega and Medco Energi gained on the surge in world crude oil prices. Energi Mega gained 40 Rupiah or 2.8% at 1,450 and Medco Energi added 500 Rupiah or 5.4% to a record close of 5,900, off a new alltime intraday high of 6,200. Among the losers, index heavyweight Telkom dropped 100 Rupiah or 0.9% to 11,300 and gas distributor Perusahaan Gas Negara lost 200 Rupiah or 1.4% at 14,350. Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended lower Friday as investors went into consolidation mode ahead of the weekend, coupled with persistent profit-taking in select heavyweights. The drop suffered by key heavyweights such as IOI Corp, Maybank and Tenaga Nasional dragged the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) down to 1,402.25, which was lower by 0.82% or 11.60 points. Throughout the trading session, the KLCI moved between 1,390.60 and 1,403.45. The Finance Index dropped 154.13 points to 10,995.9 and the Industrial Index declined 18.41 points to 2,742.72. Of the FTSE-BM Index series, the FBMEmas decreased 94.04 points to 9,446.54 and the FBM30, which comprises the top 30 companies by full market capitalisation, went down 107.58 points to 8,836.91. The FBM-MDQ fell 54.50 points to 6,494.38 and the FBM2BRD was 20.17 points lower at 7,132.29. Losers led gainers by 572 to 267 while 261 counters were unchanged, 290 untraded and 39 suspended. Overall volume declined to 1.078 billion shares worth RM1.735 billion compared with Wednesday?s closing of 1.324 billion shares valued at RM1.875 billion. Indian shares closed lower in a volatile session Friday on profit taking in blue chips and falling foreign institutional investor inflows. The Bombay Stock Exchange's key index Sensex opened more than 200 points higher in a one-hour trading session but plunged on profit taking. The BSE Sensex closed down 151.33 points, or 0.79%, to 18,907.60, while the National Stock Exchange's S&P CNX Nifty closed 0.62% lower at 5663.25. However, the BSE's mid-cap and small-cap indexes advanced, pointing to buying by domestic and retail investors. The domestic investors bought 2.83 billion Rupees worth of stocks yesterday, while the foreign funds were net sellers to the tune of 13.56 billion Rupees. Indian markets traded for just an hour in a special session Friday on account of Diwali, a Hindu religious festival, and to mark the beginning of the new year for traders. For the week the Sensex is now down more than a 1,000 points since last Friday, while the Nifty has lost about 270 points in the same period. Banking stocks, which have seen heavy profit taking of late, continued to be sold today as well. ICICI Bank Ltd, India's second largest bank, lost the most on the Sensex as it fell more than 2% to 1,143 Rupees. IT stock Wipro Ltd also lost around 2% to close at 460 Rupees. IT stocks have been hammered with the Indian Rupee rising against the US Dollar, biting into their revenues. Down under now; Australian shares closed higher Friday after an attempt by BHP Billiton to take control of Rio Tinto turned the spotlight on the rest of the resources sector. The BHP proposal and approach to Rio has been a significant influence over the market here, not only over those two particular stocks but the whole resources sector where there could possibly be more consolidation in the short term. The S&P/ASX 200 closed 24.1 points or 0.4% higher at 6,545.7, off a low of 6,520.1. The benchmark index peaked at 6,605.1. For the week, it was down 150.9 points or 2.3%. The All Ordinaries index advanced 38.9 points or 0.6% to 6,607.4. Volume traded was 1.6 billion shares worth about 9.3 billion Australian Dollars. Gainers outstripped decliners 641 to 616, with 362 unchanged. The S&P/ASX 200 December futures contract was up 45 points at 6,583. The yield on the 10-year bond rose 0.015percentage point to 6.015%, while the yield on 90-day bills eased 0.006percentage point to 7.107%. Investors snapped up shares in Rio Tinto even though the world's third-biggest miner rejected the offer of three BHP Billiton shares for each Rio Tinto share. The deal would create a 350 billion US Dollar mining monolith. Rio Tinto surged to a fresh record of 138.10 Dollars before closing at 130.90 Dollars, up 17.50 Dollars or 15.4%. BHP Billiton shed 77 cents or 1.8% to 42.47 Dollars on expectation the world's leading miner will return with a higher offer. The overnight bid focused attention on the rest of the resources sector as investors reassessed the earnings potential of the mining industry at a time of strong global demand for commodities. Emerging iron ore producer Fortescue Metals surged 6.04 Dollars or 13.6% to 50.55 Dollars. BHP's tilt for Rio follows other merger and acquisition activity in the sector, including London-listed Xstrata Plc's 3 billion Dollar takeover offer for Australian nickel miner Jubilee Mines NL. Jubilee Mines closed down 5 cents or 0.2% at 23.32 Dollars. National Australia Bank, Australia's biggest bank by assets, rose 1.21 Dollars or 2.9% to 43.40 Dollars after announcing full-year earnings rose 17.7% to 4.4 billion Dollars, exceeding the market's consensus forecast of 4.323 billion Dollars, and wrapping up the sector's reporting season. The rest of the banking sector was weaker, with Australia & New Zealand Banking Corp 54 cents or 1.9% lower at 27.95 Dollars, Westpac off 36 cents or 1.2% at 28.62 Dollars and Commonwealth Bank down 51 cents or 0.9% at 59.40 Dollars. Elsewhere, Wesfarmers slipped 1.7 Dollars or 4.2% to 38.15 Dollars after the Victorian Supreme Court approved a scheme of arrangement to allow its 20 billion Dollar takeover of Coles Group Ltd to proceed. Coles was removed from the stock exchange after the close. And rounding off the Asia Pacific Region this we, we go to Wellington, where New Zealand shares fell Friday on continuing fallout from volatile overseas markets. The benchmark NZX-50 index closed 50.65 points lower or 1.2% at 4,134.77 on turnover worth 90.9 million New Zealand Dollars. Market leader Telecom fell 11 cents to 4.27 Dollars, following strong gains over the last two days after the government telecom regulator ruled rivals must pay a higher than expected price for access to Telecom's network. Fletcher Building lost 29 cents to 11.34 Dollars, shedding about 1.50 Dollars in less than a month as the outlook for construction weakens. Contact Energy was down 2 cents at 9.05 Dollars and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare fell 2 cents to 3.22. Fisher & Paykel Appliances dropped 10 cents to 3.34 Dollars, more than offsetting the rise Thursday prompted by a 16.6% rise in interim profit. Auckland International Airport fell 7 cents to 3.09 Dollars as doubts multiply about the Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board bid for a 40% stake at 3.6555 Dollars a share. |
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Nymex December West Texas Intermediate hit a record $98.62 in choppy trading on Wednesday, but eased later in the week. On Friday, it rose $1.18 to its session high of $96.68 a barrel, gaining 0.8% over the week. However, next week could be even more volatile. December 2007 futures are due for expiry on Friday November 16 and there are still more than 320,000 contracts outstanding, almost entirely held by financial players. The real $100 magnet could be in the options market because 42,000 December call options for WTI at $100 would expire as worthless on Tuesday if oil is below that level. I am expecting call-option holders to try to push oil to $100 but warn that the market could sell off sharply afterwards. With up to 400m barrels of oil that must be sold before next Friday if the December options expire in the money, selling pressure, post Tuesday?s options expiry, may be stronger than anything the oil market has seen in several years. ICE December Brent added $1 at $93.80 a barrel, gaining 1.8% this week as weather-related production disruptions in the North Sea provided support. US households face record prices for heating oil this winter. Nymex December heating oil rose 1.8 cents to $2.6236 a gallon on Friday, gaining 1.9% this week,after touching a record $2.660 on Thursday. Nymex December RBOB unleaded gasoline traded less than 1 cents higher at $2.4432 a gallon, 0.1% stronger this week. Gold eased 0.1% to $831.25 a troy ounce on Friday but it showed a gain of 3% over the week. Gold has seen increased volatility at these high price levels but the market is well positioned for a further effort to break the $850 record I feel. Gold peaked at $845.40 on Wednesday, while silver hit a 27-year high on the same day. Platinum fell 1.3% to $1,435 a troy ounce this week after hitting a record $1,484 on Wednesday, amid concerns about tight supplies. Copper fell 5.3% to $7,040 a tonne this week, under pressure from rising inventories and a lack of Chinese buying interest, sinking dangerously close to the key $7,000 level. |
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The carry trade, where low-yielding currencies such as the Yen are sold to fund higher-yielding purchases, is a risky strategy, as yield-based gains can be wiped out instantly by volatile price swings. The sense of panic caused by tumbling global stock indices left the Australian Dollar down 3.5% against the Yen, even though the currency was supported by this week?s 25 basis point increase in Australian interest rates to 6.75%. Over the week, the Aussie fell 4.2% to Y101.39. The New Zealand Dollar fell 2.7% Friday, and was off 3.1% over the week. Sterling fell 3.3% over the week to Y231.96 and the Euro was off 2.5% to Y162.40. Switzerland?s low-yielding franc, another favoured funding currency for the carry trade, rose 2.8% against the Dollar to SFr1.1218 over the week and by 2.3% to SFr2.3543 against the Pound. The Dollar fell 3.4% to Y110.88 on the week amid rising concerns that the market turmoil would weaken the US economy and force the Federal Reserve into further interest rate cuts. Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, speaking on Thursday to the Congressional Joint Economic Committee, expressed heightened concerns that weakness facing the financial and housing markets could hurt US economic growth. Although inflation was still a concern, Mr Bernanke said growth would slow ?markedly? this quarter and would remain ?sluggish? during early 2008. His comments raised expectations of further near-term rate cuts. I believe that the risk posed by continued dislocation in financial markets, and subsequent tightening credit conditions will prompt the Fed to ease more than is currently expected when the markets meet in early December. The European Central Bank, on the other hand, was not expected to cut rates any time soon after Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, said on Thursday that the bank was still concerned over inflation. This verdict on the Eurozone economy came after the ECB announced it was keeping interest rates at 4%. The Euro was up 1.3% over the week at $1.4692, having reached a new record on Friday of $1.4752. The Dollar was sold most heavily on Wednesday after a Chinese politician said the country?s central bank should take advantage of strong currencies to counter the weakness of the Dollar in China?s $1,430bn reserves. US economic data was mixed. The trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly sharply to $56.4bn in September. In the near-term, I expect the deficit will continue to narrow as the weak Dollar boosts exports and weakens import demand. Sentiment was dented after consumer confidence measured by Michigan University fell to a 25-month low. The Bank of England also resisted calls to lower its main interest rate on Thursday, holding at 5.75%, amid continued worries about high inflation. Sterling rose 0.9% over the week to $2.1004, having hit a 26-year peak of $2.1161 on Friday. The Pound was down against the Euro as data, including house prices and trade figures, came in on the weak side. The Euro was up 0.8% over the week to £0.7001. The New Zealand Dollar moved lower against the US Dollar Friday as the Kiwi tested bids around the US$ 0.7680 level and was capped around the $0.7820 level. New Zealand Dollar offers are cited around the US$ 0.8865 level. The South African Rand weakened Friday. After starting the session on a firm footing, the Rand stumbled after banking shares dragged European stocks lower. It was trading at 6.6050 to the Dollar at 1515 GMT, more than one% weaker than its New York close of 6.52. The lofty Canadian Dollar flew lower for the third day in a row Friday, and North American stock markets endured big sell-offs as investors backed away from risk. The loonie fell more than three-quarters of a cent to close at $1.0607 US. It's dropped four full cents from its modern-day high on Wednesday morning just above $1.10 US. And as always, rounding out currencies here in China, we have the RMB which closed at CNY 7.4108 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.4207 ? the pair?s weakest closing rate since the RMB revaluation of July 2005. |
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'Further observation is needed on whether there should be an interest rate hike,' Yi was quoted as saying by the paper. The October consumer price index, which the National Bureau of Statistics is due to release on Tuesday, is expected to show growth of up to 6.5-6.8% from 6.2% in September on the back of rising meat and vegetable prices. The central bank said in its third quarter monetary policy report yesterday that it expects full-year CPI of around 4.5%. Central bank officials have repeatedly stated their intention to bring real deposit rates into positive territory. The benchmark one-year deposit rate, which the central bank has adjusted five times this year, currently stands at 3.87%. ******************************************** China?s main stock index closed Friday with a weekly loss of eight%, its biggest weekly drop since May 1997, as investors retreated from the market because of worries about government policy and heavy supply of new shares. The Shanghai Composite Index ended down 0.27% at 5,315.540 points, its lowest finish since Sept 14, after moving between positive and negative territory. On Thursday it plunged 4.85%, its largest daily drop in four months. Losing Shanghai stocks outnumbered gainers on Friday by 499 to 336. Turnover in Shanghai A shares was a very small 79.9 billion yuan ($10.8 billion), near a 15-week low. A bull run in Chinese stocks pushed the index up 129% between the start of this year and a record intra-day high of 6,124 points in mid-October. But since then investors have been discouraged by tightening monetary policy, authorities? curbs on fund flows into stocks, a flood of new share offers, high valuations and sagging foreign stock markets. Friday?s close left the index down 13% from its peak, although it is still 99% higher than its level at the start of this year. Fund managers and analysts generally think the market?s long-term uptrend will resume early next year. Corporate profit growth is expected to slow but remain strong, and though Chinese authorities have been seeking to cool the market, they do not want to cause a crash. In the short term, however, few traders see room for a major rebound. Some blue chips partially recovered on Friday. Sinopec, which plunged 7.10% on Thursday, jumped on Friday afternoon to close 3.87% higher at 23.36 yuan in response to a 5% gain by its Hong Kong-listed H share. Goldman Sachs raised its rating for the oil refiner?s H share to buy from neutral, though it only lifted the A share to neutral from sell. Bank of Communications climbed 4.59% to 15.50 yuan and Minsheng Banking Corp gained 4.23% to 17.51 yuan after Reuters reported they would be among the first group of settlement banks for the country?s planned stock index futures trade. Property shares were boosted by this week?s faster yuan appreciation against the Dollar, with Shanghai Xinmei Real Estate up 6.72% to 8.42 yuan. But many industrial stocks stayed weak. PetroChina, which soared in its debut on Monday, edged down 0.03% on Friday to 38.18 yuan. Merchants Bank gained 1.78% in the morning after obtaining approval from the US Federal Reserve to open a branch in New York, but closed 0.95% down at 40.66 yuan. Zhejiang Holley Technology slumped 7.40% to 12.02 yuan after saying its main shareholder had sold shares in it. reuters ******************************************** Singapore Airlines and the city-state's Temasek Holdings have signed a final agreement to buy 24% in China Eastern Airlines, the nation's third-largest carrier, the firms said Friday. The agreement is seen as a key move in the battle for Shanghai, a city with a population of 17 million which, next to Beijing, is the most important aviation hub in the rapidly expanding Chinese market. It was the first time a foreign carrier took a share in a major state-controlled airline company in China, and analysts said it could herald further changes in the industry. The Singaporean national carrier and state-linked investment firm Temasek will inject a combined 7.16 billion Hong Kong Dollars (920 million US) into the struggling Chinese airline to buy nearly 1.9 billion new shares in the firm, according to a statement filed with the Hong Kong stock exchange. Singapore Airlines, majority-owned by Temasek, will buy 1.235 billion shares for a 15.7% stake and Temasek 649 million shares for an 8.3% slice at 3.8 Hong Kong Dollars per share. The deal is expected to make it easier for China Eastern to obtain future financing, while the carrier will also learn from Singapore Airlines' management experience. The strategic cooperation agreement between Singapore Airlines and China Eastern sets out areas of cooperation, including flights, operations, service, procurement marketing and training. The agreement was signed six weeks after a rival bid for China Eastern launched by Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific and flag carrier Air China was abandoned. China Eastern Holdings, the airline's state-owned parent company, will also buy 1.1 billion new shares, worth 4.2 billion Hong Kong Dollars, under the deal announced Friday. The holding company's stake in China Eastern will be cut to 51% from 59.7%. Singapore Airlines will be entitled to nominate two members of the carrier's 14-member board and Temasek one. |
Summary Lots more volatility in the week ahead Ladies and Gentlemen I am afraid.
Just as renewed waves of forced asset sales and bank write-downs risk turning this year's credit market turmoil into a vicious circle, the Japanese Yen looks set to deliver another shock to global markets.
An accelerating slide in the US Dollar this week has been driven by a growing conviction that the US Federal Reserve will be forced into further steep interest rate cuts.
And as Dollar losses against the Yen started to spiral on Friday, fears have risen of a mass unwinding of the Yen "carry trade" -- currency trades funded by cheap, low interest rate Yen and estimated to be worth up to $200 billion.
Sudden losses on these trades - which thrive when currency market volatility is low - could force speculative hedge funds to cut other market bets to fund those losses, and also reverse the flood of Japanese money invested overseas in recent years.
The potential for a further carry unwind - presuming we are now in a second wave of risk aversion - is quite high now. These waves of risk aversion are washing through markets one after the other and seem to be hitting the credit markets first, then equity markets and then the FX markets. It's what happened in July and August and it seems to be what's happening again now.
The Dollar set successive historic lows against the Euro and 26-year lows against the British Pound earlier this week.
But on Friday it lurched to an 18-month trough against the Yen of 110.52 Yen, breaking the stable 5-Yen range it had held since the Fed discount rate cut in August reversed a flight from risky currency bets.
The lurch sent currency volatility measures haywire, forcing further closing of Yen-funded positions in a self-feeding cycle.
BNP Paribas' currency volatility index surged to a near 3-month high of 9.6% on Friday, with implied one-month Dollar/Yen volatility soaring to more than 14%.
And that surge of more than six percentage points marks the biggest weekly rise in implied volatility since 1998 when the Dollar tumbled 10% in a week after a Russian debt default and near-collapse of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management.
Volatility is simply an anathema to carry trades, which only make sense when there's seen to be a low risk that big currency swings will erase the interest rate pickup. Hedge funds can borrow Yen for three months at less than one% annualized and put them on deposit in Dollars or Euros for about fourpercentage points more. That is a one-way bet as long as currency rates are stable.
But forward interest rate theory suggests that interest-rate differentials merely reflect a premium on the higher-yielding unit to compensate for the inherent risk of depreciation.
With the Dollar now falling so sharply, the interest rate gain is being wiped out by exchange rate losses.
Policymakers have been fretting for over a year about the difficulties of estimating how much money might be caught up in a carry unwind - not least because the money is a mix of speculative positions and Japanese capital seeking higher yields overseas.
Japan's top financial diplomat Hiroshi Watanabe earlier this year guessed investors might have borrowed between 10 and 20 trillion Yen: at current exchange rates, anywhere up to $200 billion.
And the Bank for International Settlements in June warned that this was an accident waiting to happen.
"The underlying problem seems to be a too firm conviction on the part of investors that the Yen will not be allowed to strengthen in any significant way," it said in a report.
Investors might be better encouraged to consider the autumn of 1998, when the Yen rose by more than 10% against the US Dollar in the space of two days, inflicting sizeable losses on those involved in the carry trade business.
Also in Japan, The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates on hold next week for the 11th straight review as it takes more time to ponder whether the Japanese economy can weather ongoing turmoil in global markets.
While Japanese central bankers fear that keeping rates low for too long will cause the economy to overheat, they are in no hurry to lift their key policy rate from the current 0.5% given growing uncertainty in financial markets.
In Europe as well next week, we will see a shift of focus slightly.
Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold this week, as expected. As inflation rates are high in the Eurozone, and will probably rise even higher by the beginning of next year, the prospects of an interest rate turnaround in the Euro area have deteriorated markedly. In its rhetoric, the ECB is still signalling that it is prepared to act. However, as it is sees rising inflation rates as a temporary phenomenon, which should not have an impact on inflation expectations, further interest rate increases are unlikely in the coming months, given the downside risks to growth.
Eurozone growth data due to be published next week are not likely to change this either. They will probably confirm the ECB Council?s fairly optimistic economic assessment. Jean-Claude Trichet indicated that the ECB Council sees no reason to alter its base scenario of sustained robust growth for the Eurozone. In our view, the growth rate will be close to potential in Q3.
The Euro?s rally could be hampered by politics next week. Jean-Claude Trichet has already pointed out that ?brutal? exchange rate movements are never welcome. In 2004, such utterances halted the soaring Euro, but this time, they do not appear to be having much effect on forex market players. Similar warnings are likely to be issued by the Ecofin Council at the beginning of the week, and the G20 finance ministers at the end of the week. However, these verbal interventions are unlikely to be followed by any concrete monetary policy actions.
And let's not forget the US next week. As mentioned, the credit crunch is back in force: Short-term lending markets are seizing up again, as illustrated by issuance of commercial paper and widening spreads in risky bonds. Meanwhile, stock indexes threaten to drop through lows from September, before the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, to test the nadirs of August. Next week, investors will brace themselves for more confessions of credit losses from major banks - a seemingly constant worry.
Meanwhile, earnings reports from big retailers will reveal the extent of damage to consumer spending from economic and oil worries. October inflation data will provide a window on whether soaring commodity costs are feeding into prices of goods.
A data-packed week is expected to deliver further proof of slower US economic activity. Among the major reports are pending home sales for September, due Tuesday, and as mentioned October's retail sales report and the Producer Price Index, due Wednesday. October's Consumer Price Index will be released Thursday, along with the Philadelphia Fed Survey and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Many expect Friday's industrial production report to be sluggish.
So, all told, we have a potentially 'ultra-volatile' week ahead in financial markets - as if this week was not hectic enough!
As always, I will keep you posted as/when/if major developments occur during the week ahead and in the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
Market Review Newsletter Compiled By
Adrian Page
Managing Director
Financial Page International
Saturday 10 November 2007
"Money Does Not Perform. People Do!"
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