Global Weekly Markets Review - 11 August 2007

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,

The FTSE down 3.7%, Paris down 3%, Australia down 3.7% too. South Korea, taking its third biggest one day drop in history, 4.2% and even Shanghai followed suit Friday with a 0.09% drop; okay, nothing to write home about but I think you get my message.

How about this also; the FTSE in the UK has wiped out all gains this year, as have the Eurofirst markets.

Global Financial Markets are in trouble!!!

Fears of a global liquidity crisis intensified on Friday, knocking stocks and high-yielding currencies, while the European Central Bank and Asian authorities acted to calm surging short-term borrowing costs.

What started as trouble with risky US residential mortgages is gripping world financial markets as the fallout hits banks globally, squeezes once ample liquidity and threatens to damage world growth.

World stocks have shed over seven% since they hit record highs only a month ago. Investors rushed to buy safe-haven government bonds, unwind Yen-financed carry trades and moved to scale back expectations for interest rate hikes by some major central banks this year.

Emergency action by central banks underlined that the risk of a global liquidity crunch was more serious than anticipated.

Central banks around the world tried to calm nerves after pumping $120bn of extra liquidity into the financial system to alleviate concerns about deteriorating credit conditions.

The New York Federal Reserve followed counterparts in Asia and Europe and injected funds into the repurchase market to stabilise overnight lending rates.

The Fed's additions totaled the most since September 2001. They came in two weekend repurchase agreements of $19 billion and $16 billion, for which the Fed accepted securities including mortgage-backed debt, so-called agency debt and Treasuries as collateral. Losses in US subprime mortgages have been rippling through credit markets, driving interest rates higher and sinking stocks. The Fed added $24 billion yesterday.

Earlier the European Central Bank intervened for a second day after it made a fresh €61bn of funding available to financial institutions. The move by the ECB followed a €95bn injection of liquidity on Thursday which was followed by central bank intervention in Japan and Australia.

Following its €94.8bn cash injection on Thursday, the ECB also said on Friday it would add money to the financial system over the weekend, aiming to ”assure orderly conditions in the Euro money market”.

Dollars were in especially short supply on Friday with deposit rates for tomorrow/next delivery hitting 6-1/2 year highs above 6%. This compares with benchmark Federal funds rates of 5.25%.

Government bonds rallied on a safe-haven bid. The September Bund future was up 44 ticks.

Investors cut bets on ECB interest rate hike expectations in the face of market uncertainty. The market prices in a 1-in-2 chance of the ECB hiking to 4.25% in September, compared with nearly 100% last week. There is also a 75% chance of a Fed rate cut priced in by end-September.

The concerted efforts on the part of central banks to restore confidence and prevent the short-term capital markets from seizing up reflects their concern at the worst liquidity crunch since 1998 - and so they should be concerned.

In the US, should the central banks fail in their efforts and short-term refinancing pressures remain then it won't be many days before we are likely to see the Fed respond with an outright easing in the price at which it extends credit.

Volatility across markets is hitting banks and corporates as they have a harder time accessing the financing essential in making corporate takeover deals. The DAX Volatility Index is up nearly 10% and hit a 14-month high.

The “nightmare scenario” for investors, is that a market slide goes from orderly to uncontrollable – a situation which many believe could arise if central banks are unable to pump enough liquidity to offset the credit crunch. At that point, it gets nasty and control of the fund shifts from the trading manager to the risk manager and the unwinding begins. The most natural place to start raising cash in illiquid money markets is in those lovely liquid equity markets and that is what we are starting to see.

Credit woes also hit oil markets, with London Brent crude down 0.5% with concerns rising over the health of the global economy. Spot gold rose to $664.90.

So without further ado, let's take a look at the numbers:

US Markets - Wall Street closed out an extraordinarily difficult week with a mixed finish Friday after the Federal Reserve injected billions of Dollars into the banking system to calm markets torn by worries about evaporating credit. The Dow Jones industrials, down more than 200 points in the session, ended with just a 30-point deficit.

The stock market, which has been gyrating for weeks over fears that credit is drying up, pared its losses after the Fed's second injection of cash and following morning comments from the central bank that it would do all it can to "facilitate the orderly functioning of financial markets." The day's declines and continued volatility, however, showed the depths of fear that have investors yanking money out of stocks.

The Fed added $19 billion in liquidity to the market Friday morning, then another $16 billion and, in mid-afternoon, $3 billion.

Broader stock indicators also fell but came off of lows. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 10.69, or 0.74%, to 1,442.40, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 28.61, or 1.12%, to 2,527.88.

The New York Fed, which carries out the central bank's market operation, announced a three-day repurchase agreement and then two more "repo" moves to inject liquidity into the market. The Fed said Friday it would accept $19 billion and then $16 billion in mortgage backed securities. The move came after the fed funds rate, the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans, ticked above 6% again Friday — well above the Fed's target of 5.25% and a sign that credit was becoming harder to obtain.

The Fed stepped in after the same occurrence Thursday, injecting a larger-than-normal $24 billion in temporary reserves to the US banking system. In a repo, the Fed arranges to buy securities from dealers, who then deposit the money the Fed has paid them into commercial banks.

The Fed's moves Thursday and Friday follow its August meeting Tuesday at which it left short-term interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, as it has done for more than a year. In its statement following the meeting, the bank said its primary concern remains inflation.

But the tumultuousness of the final two sessions of the week, which followed a sharp run-up in the week's first three sessions, has some market observers wondering whether the Fed will step in and douse some of the credit fears that have gripped the markets. So while some are now calling for a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting or even sooner, others contend investors will in any case first need to gather some confidence that the subprime woes and the credit market tightening aren't lethal for the economy and the markets.

In economic news, the Commerce Department said US import prices rose for a fifth consecutive month in July, increasing 1.5%. Prices rose in part amid increased energy costs. The figures could stir concern among the Fed about inflationary prices.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 2.01 billion shares.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 2.12, or 0.27%, to 782.75.

European Markets - Europe's leading exchanges closed sharply lower as investors continued to sell off amid fears over a global credit crunch.

The Dow Jones STOXX 50 closed 119.96 points or 3.20% lower at 3,631.52, while the STOXX 600 retreated 11.43 points or 3.05% to 362.84.

The pan-regional FTSE Eurofirst 300 fell 2.9% to 1481.84 and turned negative for the year to date.

European financials were suffering heavily today, and the Dow Jones sector index for banks fell 3.71% while the index for financial services droopped 3.42%.

In fact, every market in Europe closed lower and rather than be boring and say the same things about the cause of the declines, because we all know what they are, let me just give you the figures for closing Friday.

France - The CAC-40 index finished down 176.15 points or 3.13% at 5,448.63.

Among CAC-40 stocks, all 40 closed lower.

On the Matif, August CAC-40 futures were trading at 5,488.

On the broader indices, the SBF-80 index closed down 137.51 or 2.03% at 6,623.98, while the SBF-120 ended 122.26 or 2.98% lower at 3,980.17.

Germany - The DAX closed at 7,343.26 points, down 110.33 points or 1.48%, having traded between 7,293.52 and 7,386.41.

The MDAX lost 270.43 points or 2.65% to 9,931.75 points, while the TecDAX dropped 33.96 points or 3.71% to 882.23 points.

DAX futures were down 78.50, or 1.05%, at 7,391.50, while bund futures gained 0.44 or 0.39% to 112.81.

Belgium - At the close, the Bel 20 was down 118.72 points or 2.82% at 4,096.20.

The Netherlands - The AEX closed 15.81 points or 3.05% lower at 502.04, after opening at 503.55 Eur and trading in a range of 497.79-509.28.

Switzerland - The Swiss Market Index closed 2.7%, or 239.80 points lower at 8,565.52 and the Swiss Performance Index closed 2.8%, or 201.60 points lower at 7,000.24.

The Euro was little changed at 1.6373 SFr, while the Dollar fell to 1.1963 SFr.

Austria - The ATX closed down 3.42% 156.80 points at 4,434.68. The ATX Prime closed down 3.34% or 76.27 points at 2,206.85.

Finland - The OMX Helsinki 25 ended 3.31% lower at 2,990.51 -- the first time it has slipped below 3,000 points since March.

The OMX Helsinki closed down 3.00% at 10,821.28 on 2.121  billion Eur turnover.

Sweden - The OMX Stockholm index closed down 3.16% at 378.72, while the OMX Stockholm 30 index ended 3.29% lower at 1,170.08. Turnover was 39.8  billion SKr.

The main sector movers were industrials, which closed down 3.67%; banks, down 3.67%; and materials, 3.46% lower.

Denmark - The OMXC20 index was down 11.60 points at 478.50 and the OMXCB Benchmark index shed 11.16 points to 460.21.

The OMXC All Share index closed down 10.78 points at 470.92, on turnover of 10.77  billion DKr.

Norway - The OSEBX Benchmark index closed 2.7% lower at 458.6 points while the OSEAX All Share index was down 2.5% at 532.1 points.

Total turnover amounted to 18.34  billion NKr.

Spain - The IBEX-35 index closed down 384.40 or 2.59% at 14,453.90, after trading in a range of 14,434-14,703.

Italy - The Mibtel index lost 2.48% to 30,418 points and the S&P/Mib was down 2.65% to 38,994.

Volume traded was an estimated 9.679  billion Eur.

The ASE general index dropped 2.6% to 4,634.5, and the blue chip index fell 2.7% to 2,471. Mid caps lost 3.2% to 5,998.5, and small caps plummeted 4.4% to 1,056.6. The banking sector shed 3%.

Decliners outnumbered advancers 282 to six, while 24 were unchanged in very heavy trading volume of roughly 663  million Eur.

UK Market - Billions of Pounds have been wiped off the value of London's stock market. The turmoil of recent weeks has more than wiped off the Footsie's gains for the year, with financial stocks among the biggest losers because of fears over their exposure to weakening credit markets.

Britain's top share index tumbled nearly 4% on Friday, its biggest fall in more than four years, as a lending squeeze that forced central banks to inject cash into the banking system spooked investors.

The FTSE 100 index FTSE closed down 3.7% at 6,038.3 -- its biggest one-day % fall since May 2003.

The FTSE 250 lost 322.6 points or 2.8% to 10,889.5. Volume was very strong after yesterday’s record, reaching 4.43 billion shares traded in 1.14 million deals.

Financials led the plunge across the board with Northern Rock the worst performer with a 9.57% drop to 713.5p followed by Man Group 9% less at 479.25 despite a buy recommendation from Evolution.

Barclays, Old Mutual, Prudential, Friends Provident, Shroders and Invesco all fell between 4.75% 6.38%. Standard Life got off with only a 1% penalty to 315.25p.

HBOS, 40p or 4.38% lower, announced the resignation of its retail division chief executive Benny Higgins who oversaw a plunge in mortgage market share drop to 8% after new policies late last year. The lender recently reported depressed first-half profit.

Commodities also fell on concerns that the credit crunch will slow the global economy. Lonmin bled 236p or 7.2p to £30.36, with BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Anglo American all losing between 5.7% and 6.6%.

There were just four blue chip stocks that rose: Carnival, likely on the lower oil price, Associated British Food, Tate & Lyle and Kingfisher, parent of the B&Q do-it-yourself building supplies chain.

On the midcap 250, again financials littered the debris with Rathbone the poorest performer on a 12% plunge to £11.57 followed by Henderson, 9.43% weaker at 139.25p.

Investec, Aberdeen and Venture Production also lost ground mirroring the large cap impacts on financials and oil producers.

Avis Group, 15.9% firmer at 51p, was the best performer on word that short positions were being swallowed by funds in the bear market.

JKX Oil gained 42.75p or 13.5% to 360p, Autonomy added 18.5p to 840p and CSR took on 13.5p or 1.9% to 709p.

Tate & Lyle rose seven points, or 1.28%, to 555p.  Carnival rose 14 points, or 0.63%, to 2246p. 

Kingfisher rose 1.25 points, or 0.58%, to 216p.  Associated British Foods rose 4.5 points, or 0.53%, to 846p and finally Reckitt Benckiser rose one point, or 0.04%, to 2775p.

Japan & Asia Pacific - Asian markets finished the week in near freefall on Friday, gripped by panic that the US sub-prime lending problem was on the brink of triggering a full-scale global financial crisis and the liquidation of several huge hedge funds.

Stocks plunged across all major Asian bourses from Taipei to Ho Chi Minh as equities became the front-line victims of a trading stampede of investors desperate to raise cash quickly amid tightening money markets. Hardest-hit was the Kospi index of Seoul-listed shares, which shed over 4% of its value in one day.

In Tokyo, where the benchmark Nikkei 225 Index crashed more than 400 points, brokers said that the day’s trading patterns provided clear signs that at least one large, quality-orientated, hedge fund was in meltdown.

Investors also wrestled with the possibility that Japanese banks either do not know – or have dramatically misreported – their exposure to the US sub-prime crisis.

One of Japan’s “big four” megabanks, Mizuho, yesterday admitted to a ¥600 million loss arising from sub-prime related securities sales, but would not reveal the extent of its exposure now.

In theory, the Japanese banks should not be exposed too heavily to US sub-prime as they have not been chasers of high-yield in recent years. But history tells us that at the end of every global financial crisis there is usually a Japanese bank caught with its pants down.

Traders said that “insane” movements of particular shares – where two companies in the same sector respectively rose and fell 10% in a single session – were evidence of so-called “pair trades” of simultaneous long and short positions being unwound in a hurry by statistical arbitrage funds.

Japanese stocks have been under extremely close analytical scrutiny and many funds, while believing themselves to be using unique risk versus valuation models, have in fact all selected the same pairs trades. The unwinding of those is accordingly more violent.

Japan's key Nikkei stock index dived more than 400 points Friday.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average lost more than 500 points atone point before ending down 406.51 points, or 2.37%, at 16,764.09, the lowest close since mid-March.

The Topix index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange was down 49.88 points, or 2.96%, to 1,633.93, also the lowest since mid-December last year.

Nippon Steel was the day's volume leader, down 31 Yen to 826 Yen.

Mizuho Financial Group, the most heavily traded issue by value during the day, shed 12,000 Yen to 707,000 Yen.

Trading volume on the main section decreased to 3,354.13 million shares from Thursday's 3,810.44 million shares.

The TSE's Second Section index fell 99.39 points, or 2.50%, to 3,872.84 on a volume of 59.87 million shares.

On the Osaka Securities Exchange, the near-term September Nikkei 225 index futures contract fell 470 points to 16,750.

In South Korea, the Seoul bourse suffered the third biggest one-day fall in its history Friday, tracking declines in global stock markets over deepening and spreading US subprime mortgage woes.

The benchmark KOSPI closed down 80.19 points, or 4.2%, at 1828.49. It is the third biggest fall after a 93.17 points fall on April 17, 2000, and an 80.32-drop on July 27.

Stocks fell across the board but it was especially sharp for financial stocks. Securities companies recorded 7.36% plunge, while machinery, steel, and retail stocks also saw over a 5% drop.

Samsung Electronics closed at 603,000 won, down 18,000 won, and Hyundai Heavy Industries fell 24,000 won to close at 324,000 won. KOSPI lost 39.6 trillion won of its market cap during the day.

Hong Kong shares plunged 3%, in line with other regional markets.

Friday's trading session in Hong Kong was stopped at 0645 GMT - just 15 minutes into the afternoon session - after the Hong Kong Observatory raised the strong typhoon warning signal number 8.

The blue chip Hang Seng Index fell 646.7 points, or 2.9%, to 21,792.70.

Among Hong Kong blue chips, oil producers were among the biggest decliners after Sinopec, Asia's largest refiner by capacity, said its refineries posted an operating loss in July and August due to high crude oil prices.

Sinopec fell 4.3% to HK$7.51, and offshore oil producer CNOOC slumped 5.8% to HK$8.60. PetroChina fell 3.3% to HK$10.52.

Property developers also fell sharply on concerns about a slowdown in the global economy, which could cause a downturn in the housing market.

Hang Lung Properties declined 6.5% to HK$24.55, Sun Hung Kai Properties fell 3.7% to HK$93.35, and Cheung Kong dropped 3% to HK$103.2.

Philippine shares plunged Friday with jittery investors cashing in gains in the wake of Wall Street's slump and the subsequent slide in regional Asian markets.

The 30-company Philippine Stock Exchange Index fell 103.24 points, or 3%, to 3281.96 _ its third sharpest single-day drop this year. Thursday, the market rose 0.3%.

Foreign funds were again net sellers, sparing few stocks as they locked in gains. Losers swamped gainers 136 to 8, while 15 stocks were unchanged.

Despite recently reporting strong earnings, Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. and mall chain operator SM Prime Holdings Inc. led the market retreat Friday.

Metrobank dropped 5% to 57.50 pesos. SM Prime fell 6.8% to 10.25.

Taiwan shares plummeted Friday, weighted down by the overnight meltdown on Wall Street and weaknesses on other Asian bourses.

The Weighted Price Index of the Taiwan Stock Exchange fell 251.29 points, or 2.7%, to close at 8,931.31 points on moderate volume.

In Friday's trading the financial subindex was particularly weak, sliding 4.1%.

Cathay Financial was down 4.8% to New Taiwan Dollars 77.7.

Electronics issues were also weak, dropping 2.8%.

TSMC was down 3.5% to NT$61.6.

China's shares fell slightly Friday, snapping a record-setting, five-day climb as real estate stocks were dragged down by worries about US subprime mortgage woes.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended down 0.1% at 4749.37 after hitting new record highs in each of the past five sessions. The Shenzhen Composite Index dropped 2.2% to 1319.55.

Real estate companies, which had risen in recent weeks, were hit hard by worries that the US mortgage problems would spread.

Developer China Vanke was down 4.5%, Beijing North Star lost 5.3%, and Financial Street Holding shed 4.3%.

Strength in sectors not so directly affected by the US subprime sector, though, helped China's main Shanghai market avoid the 2-3% losses that were seen in other Asian markets.

Airlines and other shares soared as lower oil prices eased concerns about costs. Both China Southern Airlines and Shanghai Airlines, two of China's biggest carriers, jumped by their daily 10% limit. Air China rose 7.6%.

Malaysian shares closed sharply lower Friday, nothing surprising there.

The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) closed down 25.69 points or 1.96% at 1,287.70, off a low of 1,275.70. It held up relatively well compared to other regional bourses which plunged between three to four%.

For the week, the KLCI lost 49.83 points or 3.7%.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia 30-large index fell 173.05 points or 2.1% to 8,126.73 and the second board index was down 1.79 points or 1.6% at 107.49.

Losers outpaced gainers 835 to 104, with 160 stocks unchanged and 245 counters untraded.

Trading volume was 1.059 billion shares, valued at 1.952 billion Ringgit.

Indonesian share prices closed sharply lower Friday, although the main index came off its lows after investors realized that the sharp fall at the opening was overdone.

Investors found some comfort from the statement made by the head of the country's capital market watchdog Fuad Rahmany that the meltdown in the US subprime mortgage market is unlikely to have any impact on Indonesian funds and the broader economy.

The composite index closed down 34.01 points or 1.5% at 2,207.40, off a low of 2,155.92 and a high of 2,207.40.

Volume was 3.2 billion shares valued at 3.07 trillion Rupiah.

The LQ-45 index was down 7.22 points at 456.64.

Losers led decliners 160 to 26, with 45 stocks unchanged.

Thai share prices closed lower Friday in line with heavy losses across the region.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index fell 6.99 points or 0.86% to 804.84 and the blue chip SET 50 index lost 5.28 points to 574.35.

Singapore share prices also ended lower Friday. Singapore's robust economic outlook also helped underpin sentiment, after the government raised its GDP growth target for the full year to 7-8% from 5-7%, following a strong first-half performance.

The Straits Times Index closed down 53.99 points or 1.6% at 3,359.18, off the day's low of 3,284.74 points. For the week, the STI lost 76.86 points or 2.2%.

Losers outnumbered gainers 753 to 174, with 692 stocks unchanged

Volume traded was 2.27 billion shares, worth 2.95 billion Singapore Dollars.

Singapore's economy grew 7.6% in the first-half, after a faster-than-expected rise of 8.6% in the second quarter.

Banks led Friday's decliners, with DBS Group falling 60 cents to 21.20 Singapore Dollars, United Overseas Bank down 40 cents at 20.80 Dollars, and Oversea Chinese Banking Corp shedding 15 cents to 8.55 Dollars.

Property heavyweights fell, with City Developments down 30 cents to 14.60, Keppel Land down 15 cents at 7.95 Dollars, and CapitaLand sliding 15 cents to 7.20 Dollars.

Among blue chips losers, Neptune Orient Lines was a key drag, dropping 41 cents to 4.64 Dollars. Singapore Airlines was down 50 cents at 17.70 Dollars, Singapore Exchange was down 40 cents at 9.20 Dollars, Keppel Corp was down 60 cents at 12.70 Dollars, and Venture was down 60 cents at 14.20 Dollars.

Still, investors snapped up select stocks towards the end of the session. Blue chip Singapore Telecoms gained six cents to 3.46 Dollars, ST Engineering added two cents to 3.72 Dollars, and StarHub was up three cents at 2.99 Dollars.

Indian shares closed off the day's lows on value buying in blue-chip software stocks after the indices took punishment from the sharp sell-off in global stock markets for the better part of the session.

The market ignored key economic data released today to focus primarily on overseas cues. Government data showed inflation rose 4.45% for the 12 months to the week ended July 28, faster than the 4.36% recorded a week earlier and that India's industrial output grew at 9.8% in June compared with a revised 10.9% in May.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark Sensex closed 1.54% or 231.90 points lower at 14,868.25, while the National Stock Exchange's S&P CNX Nifty closed 1.59% down at 4,333.35 points.

The Sensex had plummeted 529.26 points or 3.5% to 14,570.89 in early trade after shares across Asia tumbled on concerns that the turmoil in the US sub-prime mortgage market may be spreading to the international financial sector.

Among BSE 30 stocks, 6 shares advanced and 24 declined. In the broader market, 1,050 shares advanced, 1,553 retreated and 49 were unchanged.

India's most valuable company Reliance Industries Ltd closed 1.70% lower at 1,810.75 Rupees, engineering and construction giant Larsen & Toubro Ltd fell 0.75% to 2,432.05 Rupees and ICICI Bank slipped 2.76% to 865.70 Rupees.

However, software bellwether Infosys Technologies Ltd closed 0.84% higher at 1,952.25 Rupees, Satyam Computer Services Ltd rose 2.63% to 479.40 Rupees and Wipro Ltd closed up 0.47% at 480.25 Rupees.

In Australia, Sydney shares plunged, on heavy selling triggered by sharp declines in the US and European markets on Thursday. The market witnessed the largest fall since September 2001 terrorist attacks in the US

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed down 229.6 points or 3.7% at 5,936.0, its low for the day. The broader All Ordinaries index fell 222.5 points or 3.6% to settle at 5,965.2. Losers outpaced gainers 1,180 to 225, while 229 stocks closed unchanged. Trading volume was 2.61 billion shares, worth A$8.88 billion. The S&P/ASX 200 September futures contract was down 226.0 points at 5,925.0.

Index leader BHP Billiton slumped 5.5% and rival Rio Tinto plunged 3.9% as mining stocks came under added pressure from a slump in base metal prices. Investment bank Macquarie slumped 7.0% and Babcock & Brown tumbled 7.1%. Among other major banking stocks, National Australia Bank closed down 3.2%, Commonwealth Bank dropped 2.6%, ANZ lost 2.6% and Westpac fell 3.0%.

Leading telecommunications stock Telstra gave away 5.3% and its T3 receipts lost 5.3%, extending their falls on Thursday, when the group disappointed the market with conservative earnings guidance for the financial year ending June 2008. Among gold mining stocks, New crest Mining tumbled 3.38% and Lihir Gold fell 2.21%.

The retailers were weaker, with Woolworths losing 2.95%, Coles Group dropping 5.58%, Harvey Norman shedding 3.63% and David Jones retreating 6.65%. In the media sector Publishing and Broadcasting dipped 2.06% and Fairfax lost 2.54%. Among oil issues, Woodside Petroleum gave away 4.38%, Santos plunged 7.32% and Oil Search gave away 7.08%.

New Zealand's benchmark NZX-50 Index fell 1.2%, or 50.58 points, to 4,109.84. The index has now fallen 5.4% from its all-time high of 4,342.70 set on 24 May.

The top stock, Telecom Corp. of New Zealand Ltd., nudged up 0.2% to NZ$4.35, though the second-largest, Fletcher Building Ltd., fell 1.8% to NZ$12.24.

Commodities - Commodities prices came under pressure on Friday as fears of a credit squeeze led to more selling on Wall Street and spread to the energy, industrial metals and agriculture markets.

It was the second straight day that most commodities were pummeled by the overall uncertainty in financial markets. Many analysts continue to back a view that strong global economic growth, particularly in China and other fast-developing nations, and strained supply of many raw materials paint a bullish picture for commodities prices in the longer term. But this week, investors have grown increasingly anxious that deteriorating credit conditions in the mortgage market, which sent stocks lower, could become viral and have reduced their exposure to risk.

Price declines hit the energy, industrial metals and agriculture markets on Friday, but the worst losses were pared before the close. Gold, meanwhile, regained its status as a safer refuge after enduring losses a day earlier.

As liquidity problems shake the equity markets, funds may look elsewhere to raise capital. Large, highly liquid commodity markets such as energy can take a hit as funds sell positions to raise money.

Concerns that credit market turmoil could take a toll on the broader economy, and hurt demand for oil, added to the pressure on energy prices.

The gasoline market reversed its losses in late trading after ConocoPhillips said it would delay the restart of a gasoline unit at a New Jersey refinery and as a tropical disturbance formed in the Atlantic Ocean. Also lending some support was a report from the International Energy Agency predicting strong growth in worldwide demand for oil.

Gasoline futures finished 2.08 cents higher at $1.9548 a gallon.

Elsewhere, industrial metals prices ended lower on the London Metal Exchange, as tin dropped a steep 5 percent.

Nymex copper slipped 0.15 cent to close at $3.3595 a pound.

In Chicago, corn, soybean and wheat prices traded erratically on Friday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated growers will harvest the nation's largest corn crop since 1933. The production estimate of 13.1 billion bushels came in slightly larger than analysts' average forecast of 12.9 billion bushels and represents growth of 24 percent over last year.

The soybean crop is forecast to be 18 percent smaller compared with last year at 2.63 billion bushels. Many more farmers sowed their land with corn this year instead of soybeans to take advantage of high corn prices.

The USDA's estimates are based on its first survey this year of maturing crops, which ended Aug. 1, and conditions in the southern Corn Belt have deteriorated since then.

November soybeans dropped 6 cents to settle at $8.7175 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Corn for December delivery edged up 1.25 cents to $3.505 a bushel, while September wheat fell 6.5 cents to close at $6.67 a bushel.

The Nymex metals market was the lone bright point Friday. Gold recovered from its losses of a day earlier as investors rushed back to that traditional haven amid the uncertainty in other markets. The same was evident in the Treasurys market, which is also seen as a safety net. Bond yields fell while prices rose Friday.

December gold jumped $8.80 to close at $672.80 an ounce on the Nymex. Silver picked up 16.5 cents to settle at $12.87 an ounce.

Currencies - The Euro lost marginal ground vis-à-vis the US Dollar Friday as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3640 level and was capped around the $1.3700 figure.

The Yen appreciated against the US Dollar Friday as the greenback tested bids around the ¥117.20 level and was capped around the ¥118.35 level.  Technically, Friday’s intraday low was right around the 76.4% retracement of the move from ¥115.15 to ¥124.15 and is nearing its weakest level since 29 March.

The South African Rand remained on the back foot in late trade on Friday as credit woes continued to weigh on markets globally.

In late afternoon trade the Rand was bid at R7,1882 per Dollar from its overnight close of R7,1501.It was bid at R9,8423 to the Euro from a previous R9,8004 and at R14,5065 against Sterling from 14.4650 before.

In India the Rupee closed at 40.64 per US Dollar and was marked by a depreciation of nearly 12 Paise against the Dollar as compared to the previous close of 40.52/53 per Dollar.

The Rupee opened at 40.65/69 per Dollar in volatile trading at the interbank foreign exchange market yesterday morning and traded at lower level of Rs 40.69 for some time before quoting at a high of Rs 40.62 per Dollar.

Asian currencies like the Thai Baht also retreated against the dollar and more liquid and stable currencies like the Yen.

The Philipine Peso weakened Friday in heavy volume as corporations and banks covered short Dollar positions on renewed global risk aversion, and as the local stock market fell. The Dollar ended at 45.74 Pesos, up from 45.36 Pesos Thursday.

The Australian Dollar tumbled, after investors sold the currency amid global financial market uncertainty. At 5:00 p.m. local time, the Australian Dollar was trading at US$0.84220-8427, down from Thursday's close of US$0.8620-0.8624.

In Indonesia, the Rupiah was trading at 9,335/9,345 to the US Dollar, compared to 9,310/9,320 late Thursday.

And rounding out currencies this week here in China, the RMB finished at 7.5748 to the dollar on the over-the-counter (OTC) market, compared with 7.5703 Friday.

China - China on Friday reported its second biggest monthly trade surplus on record, handing more ammunition to critics who say Beijing gains an unfair trade advantage by keeping the yuan undervalued.

The surplus in July was $24.36bn, down from June’s record high of $26.91bn, but above forecasts of $22.5bn and dwarfing the July 2006 figure of $14.6bn.

Economists had expected export growth to taper off after factories rushed to ship goods in June before rebates of value added tax were cut or scrapped on July 1 on 2,800 export lines.

But annual export growth in fact accelerated from 27.1% in June to 34.2% despite a string of recalls of Chinese products in a number of countries, notably the United States, due to safety concerns involving everything from toys to toothpaste.

It shows Chinese exporters are still scrambling to export despite government tightening. Many exporters are privately run, and they have no intention to slow down their businesses.

Legislation is wending its way through the US Congress that would impose duties on goods imported from countries deemed to have fundamentally misaligned exchange rates. China is the main target of the lawmakers.

But I doubt that trying to raise barriers to Chinese goods will make much of a difference. Demand for China-made products in overseas markets is still strong despite headline-grabbing anti-dumping cases and the like. I don’t think there will be any massive boycott of Chinese products.

Exports usually gain momentum in the second half of the year as factories gear up for Christmas deliveries; so if anything, the trend will increase.

The trade surplus in the first seven months rose 81% from the same period of 2006 to $136.8bn. The surplus in 2006 was a record $177.5bn.

The surplus is still high and doesn’t seem to have been affected much by the RMB’s appreciation and cuts in export tax rebates.

The RMB has risen 7% since it was revalued by 2.1% against the Dollar in July 2005 and untethered from a Dollar peg to float within managed bands.

Annual import growth also outstripped expectations, accelerating from 14.2% in June to 26.9% in July. And the jump probably reflects robust domestic investment.

That would be a worry to policy makers, who are striving to prevent a resurgence of capital spending out of fear that the economy is already at risk of overheating.

Companies have strong incentives to invest. Global and domestic demand is strong, profits are rising fast and banks are awash in cheap money generated by the trade surplus.

The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, is concerned that inflation could accelerate under these conditions.

Economists expect figures on Monday to show that consumer prices rose 4.9% in July from a year earlier, up from 4.4% in the year to June.

There are rumours in financial markets that the figure could be as high as 5.6%, driven by a surge in pork and egg prices.

Analysts who contend that price pressures are confined to food took comfort on Friday from an unexpected dip in wholesale inflation in July to 2.4% from 2.5% in June.

They said the benign report lends support to the argument that, although the economy has been growing at a double-digit pace for five years, competitive pressures and productivity gains are keeping a lid on broad inflationary pressures.

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PetroChina Co. shareholders approved a $5.6 billion Shanghai stock sale, agreeing to a plan that will enable China's largest oil producer to close in on Exxon Mobil Corp. as the world's biggest company by market value.

The proposal to sell as many as 4 billion yuan-denominated A shares was agreed at a meeting in Beijing today. The stock sale will be priced ``so that everyone can afford it,'' company Chairman Jiang Jiemin said.

PetroChina, traded in Hong Kong and New York since 2000, will sell shares to mainland Chinese investors for the first time, tapping the world's best-performing equity market this year. The oil producer's stock may surge in Shanghai, where shares trade at almost 50 times earnings, compared with about 16 in Hong Kong.

PetroChina's market value stood at $241 billion as of today's close, ranking the company fifth by market value globally. Five years of record profit have helped the Beijing- based producer overtake BP Plc, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and OAO Gazprom to rank second only to Exxon among oil companies.

PetroChina has about 12% of its stock publicly traded in Hong Kong and New York. The 88% stake owned by parent China National Petroleum Corp. will be valued at the price of the Shanghai-traded stock after the listing.

Depending on the market reaction, PetroChina's A-share price could jump on debut and bring its market capitalization ahead of global peers.

China's largest oil company will use some of the share-sale funds to expand crude reserves that are already larger than Exxon's. PetroChina increased oil and gas output by 3.7% in the first half, outpacing growth at the US producer along with Shell and Chevron Corp., as it supplied the world's fastest- growing major economy.

PetroChina plans to spend 40 billion yuan ($5.3 billion) developing the Jidong Nanpu field, the country's biggest discovery in almost half a century. Total spending may jump 24% to $24.5 billion this year, PetroChina said in March. That's higher than Exxon or Europe's two largest oil companies, Shell and BP.

Selling 4 billion shares would raise $5.6 billion if priced at yesterday's close. The sale requires the China Securities Regulatory Commission's approval.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., a bank with twin mainland and Hong Kong listings, this week became the world's fourth-largest company by market value. The company trades at 25 times earnings in Hong Kong and 37 times in Shanghai.

Shares of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, trade at 24 times earnings in Shanghai, twice their valuation in Hong Kong.

PetroChina hired UBS AG to arrange the transaction, together with China International Capital Corp. and Citic Securities Co., three people with direct knowledge of the decision said in June.

PetroChina shares started trading at HK$1.21 in April 2000 in Hong Kong after an initial public offering, and its American depositary receipts were listed on the New York stock exchange in the same month.

Summary       It is now 'all hands to the pump' for Central Banks and I think that we are going to see some emergency meetings held over the weekend and next week. The Fed' in America, in particular, could quite probably make a move to cut interest rates I think.

We have a few figures coming out next week, such as British Inflation Data. In the US Next week's economic calendar is brisk, starting right away with retail sales data due out bright and early Monday morning. On Tuesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) highlights the news landscape. Wednesday brings about the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and New York Empire manufacturing data along with the typical compliment of crude data. Thursday will feature closely watched housing data, and Friday finishes with a whimper, featuring only the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data.

But ladies and Gentlemen, I am sure that you will find all of those figures now taking a back seat to the current credit-crunch; in fact, next week has the potential to see those stockmarkets that currently remain in credit for 2007, see the remaining gains eroded - it seriously could be that bad if this week is anything to go by.

As I mentioned at the start of this week's newsletter - and it is worth repeating - the “nightmare scenario” for investors, is that a market slide goes from orderly to uncontrollable – a situation which could arise if central banks are unable to pump enough liquidity to offset the credit crunch. At that point, it gets nasty and control of the fund shifts from the trading manager to the risk manager and the unwinding begins; it has not even gotten fully underway yet, believe me.

The most natural place to start raising cash in illiquid money markets is in those lovely liquid equity markets and that is what we are starting to see. 

I hope that you all have a pleasant weekend and as always, I will keep you all posted next week as/when developments occur.

Market Review Newsletter Compiled By

Adrian Page

Managing Director

Financial Page International

Saturday 11 August 2007

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