Global Weekly Markets Review - 2 June 2007

Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen,

This week has seen South Korea and Taiwan Markets reach record highs; Spain too along with fresh six and a half year highs in much of Europe.  Not left on the sidelines, the Nasdaq and S & P 500 also raised the bar.

In a week that also saw China try to take the steam out of their own stockmarket bubble, by tripling the trading tax and seeing what effect this had on the market.

Admittedly, the China markets lost around 6% on Wednesday, but came back Thursday as investors repositioned their portfolio and headed away from the 'risky' stocks and went for 'value stocks'. Has it cooled the bubble?

In my view, it has stopped much of the short-term, in/out speculation but has had no effect on the longer-term 'investors' (as opposed to speculators).  Is it enough?  In my view, no chance!  Another tweak or two is needed otherwise we will see in a week or so the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets again setting fresh highs.  The liquidity has not dispersed overnight and a small trading tax increase is not going to thwart speculators or investors alike that stand to repeat their massive recent gains if the authorities do not get a grip on the market.

But as we saw this week, China's 'correction' had practically zero effect on global markets and it led to the obvious question from one or two people I know - "have you called it wrong"?

I reamin very, very bearish about global stocks and if we look at the pure fact that the world is driven by China and the US (like it or not), you all know my views on China, but why am I so bearish on the US?

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average have hit new highs. Wonderful. But let's not get lulled into the false sense that what goes up must keep going up. Despite the occasional rough patch, the US has been enjoying a bull market for the past four and a half years. All good things must come to an end.

But why not look at the three main reasons that I predict the US to suffer: 1) slowing earnings growth, 2) rising interest rates and 3) higher taxes.

Without any doubt, earnings are strong, for the moment. Standard & Poor's say earnings growth for the index came in at 8.2% for the first quarter. Companies that do a significant amount of business abroad have been performing particularly well. Some of this is due to vibrant foreign economies, but much of it stems from a weak dollar that makes overseas earnings look bigger on a U.S. profit-and-loss statement.

Now look a little more closely at those fabulous earnings. Their growth is off the torrid pace of yore. While 8.2% sounds good, it is down from the double-digit growth that has been the norm. Furthermore, the growth in net earnings is significantly less than the growth in earnings per share. That is because of all the share buybacks going on: Fewer shares divided into an earnings pool make for an inflated number. Corporations, no fools, know investors focus on EPS.

Gross domestic product growth has slowed considerably, and the most recent employment figures are disappointing. Results like these should make the Fed feel leery of a recession and thus more comfortable about easing.

Still, we've learned in recent years that the Fed has little influence on the longer end of the yield curve. One reason: Energy prices are marching upward again. Although I expect gasoline to back off a little from the $3.20 level we're seeing now, it certainly won't go back to $2. Higher gasoline and heating oil prices feed inflation, causing the yield on the ten-year Treasury note to rise. The ten-year serves as the benchmark for corporate loans, meaning that companies will be less willing to tap the capital markets to expand their activities.

Finally, there are taxes. The liberals rail against the Bush tax cuts. Most people in the US haven't noticed any tax cuts. When you factor in state and property taxes, which cannot be deducted from a federal return because of the alternative minimum tax, taxes have risen quite a bit. All George Bush did was to make the situation less onerous than it otherwise would have been. Now that the Democrats control Congress, odds are heavy that federal taxes will not be going any lower. Even if the Republicans manage to hold on to the White House come 2008, the best we can hope for is a veto of any new tax increase. The tax increase built into the statute books for 2011 will take place as scheduled.

So why do stocks keep ascending? Blindly optimistic investor sentiment has a lot to do with it. Then there are hedge funds using lots of leverage, private equity firms buying public companies, the new merger wave and all those share buybacks.

The stock market, though, is an instrument that reacts to where it thinks the trend will be. When the negative influences I just outlined start hitting, the market will get hurt. The economic slowdown will bite consumer-oriented companies first, since consumer spending makes up 70% of the GDP. A harbinger is Wal-Mart's flat same-store sales, blamed on higher gasoline prices.

So China and the US control global stockmarkets and I remain committed to the fact that both countries have economic as well as financial hurdles coming their way and as such, I am still waiting for the global stockmarket bubble to burst.

Okay, off my 'revolving soap-box' and on to those all-important numbers for the week:

US Markets - Wall Street carved out a solid advance Friday after data on job creation, manufacturing and inflation injected the market with renewed confidence about the economy and sent major indexes to record closes.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index was the biggest gainer among the major indicators and moved toward its all-time trading high.

Investors found reason for optimism in a stronger-than-expected jobs report for May. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 157,000 last month, a larger increase than in April and more than analysts anticipated. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.5%, as forecast, according to the Labor Department report.

The economic picture appeared brighter still following a lower reading on inflation from the Commerce Department and data from the Institute for Supply Management's May survey, which indicated that the manufacturing sector was strengthening.

Investors have been trying to glean from recent economic data any clues about the state of the economy and the direction of interest rates. The market hopes a slowing economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to lower rates, something the Fed is loath to do if inflation remains defiantly above the central bank's target. The job figures Friday pleased Wall Street, however, because they showed growth without an attendant rise in wage inflation.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 40.47, or 0.30%, to 13,668.11, the Dow's 26th record close for the year. The Dow, which tacked on 1.19% for the week, also set a fresh trading high of 13,692.00 Friday.

Broader stock indicators also gained Friday to end a week that saw stocks advance amid a bevy of favorable economic figures and the continued hum of corporate takeover activity. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 5.72, or 0.37%, to 1,536.34. The S&P traded as high as 1,540.56 and advanced toward its record trading high of 1,552.87 set in March 2000. Wall Street marked a milestone this week when the index set its first record close since 2000, signaling the broader market's recovery from the dot-com implosion early in the decade.

The S&P's gains, which totaled 1.36% for the week, came as a welcome development for many investors given that so many investments such as mutual funds are tied to the S&P's performance.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index rose Friday, advancing 9.40, or 0.36%, to 2,613.92. Despite a 2.22% advance for the week that far outpaced other major indexes, the Nasdaq remains well off of its closing high of 5,048.62, set in March 2000; the index was arguably bloated by investors' frenzy over high-tech and Internet issues.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. was the biggest gainer among the 30 components of the Dow industrials. The retailer said it will open fewer U.S. superstores next year as it looks to reduce spending and announced plans to repurchase $15 billion in stock. Wal-Mart rose $1.87, or 3.9%, to $49.47.

Technology stocks were among the biggest gainers, as was the case Thursday. Fiscal first-quarter profits at Dell Inc. topped Wall Street's estimates late Thursday and the company said it would cut 10% of its work force during the next two years in a bid to lower costs. Dell advanced 39 cents to $27.30.

Dow Jones & Co., parent of The Wall Street Journal, jumped $7.89, or 14.8%, to $61.20 after the family that has long controlled the publishing company said it would meet with media mogul Rupert Murdoch to discuss his interest in acquiring the company. The Bancrofts had initially rebuffed an offer from Murdoch's News Corp.

News Corp. rose 59 cents, or 2.5%, to $24.22.

In other takeover news, CKX Inc., the operator of Elvis Presley's Graceland estate and holder of the rights to TV's "American Idol," agreed to be taken private by its chairman and chief executive. CKX surged $4.02, or 37.8%, to $14.65.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 2.85 billion shares compared with a heavy 3.27 billion Thursday. Often Fridays in the summer months see lower trading volume.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 6.23, or 0.74%, to 853.41.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended the week up 160.83, or 1.19%, at 13,668.11. The Standard & Poor's 500 index finished up 20.61, or 1.36%, at 1,536.34. The Nasdaq composite index advanced 56.73, or 2.22%, to 2,613.92.

The Russell 2000 index finished the week up 23.48, or 2.83%, at 853.41.

The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index - a free-float weighted index that measures 5,000 U.S. based companies - ended Friday at 15,532.67, up 263.46 points for the week. A year ago, the index was at 13,008.66.

European Markets - European equities advanced strongly over the week, showing resilience in the face of turmoil on the Chinese stock market.

This week's Shanghai shakeout prompted an initial, knee-jerk sell-off on the FTSE Eurofirst 300 index on Wednesday. But the index recovered to end Wednesday's session just 0.1% lower. By the end of trade Friday, the European benchmark stood at 1,625.91, a 6½-year high, and up 1.8% over the week.

Let's start in Germany where Shares closed higher after a swathe of upbeat data helped Wall Street climb higher in early trade and as M&A speculation boosted German blue-chip stocks, helping the DAX temporarily drift above 8,000 points for the first time in years.

The DAX closed 104.81 points or 1.33% higher at 7,987.85 points after trading between 7,889.74 and 8,001.63.

The MDAX added 128.59 points or 1.16% to 11,182.65 points, while the TecDAX gained 1.83 points or 0.20% to 925.98 points.

DAX futures were 114.00 or 1.45% higher at 7,7997.50, while bund futures lost 0.36 points or 0.32% to 11.70.

Deutsche Telekom jumped 0.57 Eur or 4.14% to 14.35 Eur, making it the biggest gainer among blue-chip stocks, as its shares were boosted by speculation the telecom giant may sell US unit T-Mobile USA for as much as 68  billion usd.

Allegedly, Telefonica and AT&T have shown interest and are prepared to pay 62-68  billion usd for the operations.

On Tuesday, Deutsche Telekom chief financial officer Karl-Gerhard Eick said the unit's recent earnings affirm the company's plans to hold onto its unit T-Mobile USA, denying speculation the company may aim to divest it.

Spokesmen for AT&T and Telefonica declined to comment on the matter. Deutsche Telekom was not immediately available for comment.

Allianz added 5.10 Eur or 3.09% to 170.10 Eur after Goldman Sachs added the stock to its 'conviction buy list' as the brokerage said the insurer is likely to overshoot market estimates over the next three years and its shares currently represents an excellent bargain.

Metro climbed into record-setting territory, rising to the highest levels since 1999, driven by continued speculation over a possible sale of the retailer's real estate portfolio and given an addition boost after Bernstein increased its target price to 68 Eur per share.

Its shares closed 1.69 Eur or 2.81% higher at 61.80 Eur.

SAP advanced 0.81 Eur or 2.28% to 36.38 Eur as its shares were buoyed by speculation that Larry Ellison, chief executive of US rival Oracle, may have secretly bought as much as a 12.4% stake in the German business software company in preparation for a possible takeover.

Infineon added 0.25 Eur or 2.17% to 11.77 Eur as it shares benefited from the better-than-expected first-quarter earnings announced yesterday by US computer manufacturer Dell, which many investors believe may be the first signs of a turnaround in lagging memory chips sales.

Bayer gained 0.84 Eur or 1.57% to 54.33 Eur after it said it will buy US cotton seed company Stoneville Pedigreed Seed from Monsanto for 310  million usd.

E.ON was 1.80 Eur or 1.47% higher at 123.98 Eur, buoyed by a couple of positive broker notes.

Peer RWE added 0.48 Eur or 0.57% to 84.68 Eur, with investors speculating on a bullish outlook after E.ON announced it is now targeting adjusted EBIT of 12.4  billion Eur by 2010.

Bucking the trend, Adidas fell 0.24 Eur or 0.51% to 47.20 Eur and Deutsche Boerse slumped 0.17 Eur or 0.10% to 175.75, making them the only two decliners.

On the MDAX, Patrizia Immobilien jumped 1.07 Eur or 7.61% to 15.13 Eur.

Hugo Boss's preference shares gained 0.59 Eur or 1.29% to 46.20 Eur after Permira's Luxembourg-based investment vehicle Red & Black said it will make an offer for all outstanding shares of the company as part of its efforts to increase its stake in Valentino Fashion Group.

Hugo Boss shares were suspended from trade and resumed trading just a few minutes before the market closed.

Red & Black said said its bid will be at the average share price of the past three months, as to be determined by German financial watchdog BaFin.

Valentino holds 79% of common shares and 22% of preference shares in Hugo Boss.

MLP fell 0.13 Eur or 0.76% to 16.87 Eur as it shares traded ex-dividend of 0.40 Eur.

Among technology stocks, Nordex was at the top of the pack, gaining 1.36 Eur or 4.87% to 29.30 Eur on the TecDAX index.

Software AG was up 1.34 Eur or 1.89% at 72.20 Eur after Germany's second-largest software specialist raised its earnings per share and sales targets for 2007 following the completion of its tender offer for US-based webMethods Inc.

Solarworld lost 2.25 Eur or 3.31% to 65.65 Eur, making it the worst performer on the TecDAX.

Across in France Paris Share prices closed at a six and a half year high as strong data on the US economy added positive sentiment to a market already buoyed by talk of consolidation in the energy sector and excitement over Renault's upcoming product launches.

The CAC-40 index finished up 64.15 points or 1.05% at 6,168.15, on volume of 6.6  billion Eur.

Among CAC-40 stocks, 32 closed higher and 7 closed lower.

On the Matif, June CAC-40 futures were trading up 53.0 or 0.87% at 6,143.0.

On the broader indices, the SBF-80 index closed up 29.09 or 0.39% at 7,509.96, while the SBF-120 ended up 42.47 or 0.95 ct at 4,507.10.

Renault led blue-chip gains, closing at an all-time high of 113.79, up 7.54 Eur or 7.10%, as the group gave reassuring comments at an investor meeting and confirmed the unveiling of the new version Laguna next Monday.

The launch of the new Laguna, scheduled for this autumn, is part of the group's Commitment 2009 product revamp, which the company hopes will transform sales figures in the second half of this year.

Rival car maker Peugeot also benefited from the enthusiasm about Renault, closing up 1.39 or 2.36% at 60.28.

Figures from industry association CCFA today showed Peugeot new French car registrations rising 4.5% in May, beating Renault's performance which showed a 9.6% decline.

The other major climber on the CAC-40 was Electricite de France (EDF), which ended up 2.45 Eur or 3.55% at 71.38, extending its gains from yesterday, when it was lifted by speculation of consolidation among utilities and an upbeat note from ABN Amro.

Arcelor Mittal ended the day up 1.54 Eur or 3.45% at 46.17. CEO Lakshmi Mittal said at the launch of a new company logo that Arcelor Mittal aims to stay at the forefront of the consolidation and 'globalisation' taking place in the steel sector.

Veolia Environnement rose 0.86 Eur or 1.38% to 63.06 as investors continued to react positively to yesterday's deal to buy 75% of TMT, the waste management unit of Italy's Termomeccanica Ecologia.

Another significant climber was France Telecom, up 0.59 Eur or 2.58% at 23.42, continuing a run of gains over the week which have followed news the group is examining offers for Orange Nederlans unit and may be interested in buying Deutsche Telekom's Spanish unit Ya.com.

Lafarge gained 2.89 Eur or 2.25% to end the day at 131.51. Belgian daily L'Echo said entreprenEur Albert Frere could use a 1  billion Eur capital raise to increase his 17.2% stake in the French construction group, while also raising his newly-acquired 5% stake in Spanish utility Iberdrola SA.

Outside the CAC-40, property firm Imerys soared 3.45 Eur or 4.66% to 77.55 after a bullish note from UBS in which the broker lifted its recommendation to 'buy' from 'neutral', saying the company is a major beneficiary from the new French government's plans to offer tax relief on interest payments on home loans.

On the downside, Suez shed 0.29 Eur or 0.68% to close at 42.46, giving up yesterday's gains that were fuelled by the entry of Albert Frere -- who is also Suez's largest shareholder -- into Iberdrola.

Vallourec also fell on profit-taking, ending the day down 2.96 Eur or 1.24% at 234.89 after gaining 5.96% yesterday on press speculation of a bid by Russia's Gazprom.

Skipping into Belgium now where Brussels shares closed modestly higher, with Mobistar leading the blue-chip gainers.

At the close, the Bel 20 was up 9.64 points or 0.21% at 4,707.50.

Mobile telecoms group Mobistar gained 1.25 Eur or 1.93% to 66.00.

KBC was the highest gainer among the heavyweight financials, rising 0.98 Eur or 0.96% to 103.53.

This was after the group said it has bought the 50% stake that ING Belgium -- which is part of the ING Group NV -- holds in their joint venture International Factors (IFB).

Peer Fortis rose 0.18 Eur or 0.58% to 31.06 and Dexia edged higher 0.03 Eur or 0.13% to 23.90.

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert was up 0.58 Eur or 0.62% at 94.78, recovering from earlier losses as analysts questioned the timing of Albert Frere's holding company's reported plan to raise 1  billion Eur in capital via GBL and investment vehicle Compagnie Nationale a Portefeuille before the summer to finance future purchases.

Supermarket group Delhaize was up 0.35 Eur or 0.49% at 71.31.

In negative territory, InBev fell 0.99 Eur or 1.58% to 61.62. Goldman Sachs cut the brewer's rating to 'neutral' from 'buy' and reiterated its 64.0 Eur price target.

Discount supermarket group Colruyt lost 1.24 Eur or 0.72% to 172.18.

Outside the Bel 20, Electrabel was 2.06 Eur or 0.35% higher at 589.66.

The group said it has acquired a new wind power farm in Portugal for 55  million Eur from Gamesa. The farm has 16 wind turbines with a capacity of 2 megawatts each and will prevent the emission of 76,000 tonnes of CO2 per year, the utility said. Electrabel said it now has two wind farms in Portugal and will increase its installed capacity in Europe to 450 MW.

Neighbours The Netherlands saw Amsterdam shares close higher, buoyed pretty much solely by Wall Street's positive trading.

The AEX closed up 3.54 points or 0.66% at 542.60, after opening at 543.93 and traded in 540.67-544.27 range.

Mid-cap firm Heijmans was the day's star gainer, up 5.57% to 47.0, still lifted by BAM's solid first-quarter results yesterday. BAM was 0.36% higher to 22.17.

Boskalis Westminster was another strong gainer, up 4.81% to 28.79.

Arcelor Mittal led AEX gainers, up 3.50% to 46.18 after chief executive Lakshmi Mittal said his group wants to stay 'at the forefront' of the 'consolidation' and 'globalisation' taking place in the steel sector.

KPN rose 1.35% to 12.78.

Heavyweight Royal Dutch Shell boosted the AEX, putting on 1.23% to 28.01. Peer SBM Offshore added 0.87% to 27.71, and midcapper Fugro gained 1.19% to 44.07.

ASML went 1.14% up to 19.47, while Philips fell 0.82% to 31.34 after S&P cut its outlook to 'stable' from 'positive'.

Hagemeyer, up 1.11% to 3.63, led with ABN Amro on the volume front. The bank was up 0.79% to 35.91 Eur amid reports the bank is urging the RBS-led consortium and Bank of America to settle its dispute over ABN Amro's US LaSalle unit and reports the bank's application for local incorporation in China is still being processed because of an increase in the bank's capital in mid-May, sources said.

Among other financials, Fortis lifted 0.58% to 31.08 and Aegon added 0.07% at 15.25, while ING shed 0.15% to 33.06 after KBC bought out ING Belgium's stake in joint venture International Factors.

Publishing stock Reed Elsevier gained 0.61% at 14.89 after the company announced it will withdraw from defence exhibition activities. Wolters Kluwer rose 0.61% at 23.28 Eur.

Heineken was 0.16% higher to 43.37 amid news the brewer will appeal against the European Commission decision to fine it for an alleged beer cartel with peer Dutch brewers Grolsch and Bavaria.

By contrast, fellow food and drink related issue Ahold was down% to.

TNT was off 0.12% to 32.82 while on the midcap, SNS Reaal slipped 1.45% lower to 17.0 and Crucell weakened 0.58% to 17.04.

Into Zurich now where Switzerland saw Share prices close markedly higher across the board, supported by early gains on Wall Street following a raft of benign US data, and led by ABB, Nobel Biocare and Holcim.

The Swiss Market Index closed 80.61 points higher at 9,531.46 and the Swiss Performance Index was up 64.22 points at 7,746.54.

The Euro rose against the franc to 1.6523 SFr, while the US Dollar rose to 1.2312 SFr.

The Swiss Market Index closed 80.61 points higher at 9,531.46 and the Swiss Performance Index was up 64.22 points at 7,746.54.

The Euro rose against the franc to 1.6523 SFr, while the Dollar rose to 1.2312 SFr.

Sentiment here was upbeat, boosted by better-than-expected US job market data, a lower reading on inflation from the US Commerce Department and the US ISM May survey, which pointed to a strengthening of the manufacturing sector.

Earlier yesterday afternoon, the SMI temporarily reached a new all-time high at 9,536.66, while Germany's DAX breached the 8,000 mark for the first time in five years.

Top gainer was ABB, up 0.55 SFr or 2.1% at 26.75 SFr, followed by Nobel Biocare, up 7.5 SFr or 1.8% at 427.5 SFr, and Holcim, up 2.1 SFr or 1.6% at 137.6 SFr.

Among insurers, Zurich Financial rose 2.50 SFr at 377.25 SFr after news that the Swiss reinsurer is working on a deal to transfer UK annuity liabilities to Swiss Re, traders said.

Swiss Re shares were also up 1.5 SFr at 118.1 SFr.

Among banks, UBS added 0.1 SFr at 80 SFr, while Credit Suisse added 1.15 SFr or 1.2% at 94.3 SFr. Earlier this afternoon Enron Creditors Recovery Corp said it has reached an agreement with Credit Suisse under which the Swiss bank will pay it 61.5  million usd cash to settle legal proceedings over equity transactions but at the same time deny any liability.

Among pharmas, Novartis added 0.35 SFr at 69.2 SFr, while Roche moved 2.70 SFr higher or 1.2% at 227.40 SFr.

Only three stocks ended in the red, including Swatch, off 0.25 SFr at 70.75 SFr, Synthes, 0.5 SFr lower at 152.2 SFr and Lonza, off 0.2 SFr at 120.9 SFr, all handing back recent gains.

Nestle ended up 4.5 SFr at 481.50.

Outside the SMI, shares in Swiss x-ray components supplier Comet rose 18.5 SFr to 307.5 after the company said it had bought Germany's YXLON International Group for 78.4  million SFr from private investor group Andlinger & Company.

Into Scandinavia now and starting in Finland where Helsinki Shares closed higher, with engineers Metso and Outotec, and Nokia, leading the pack.

The OMX Helsinki 25 finished up 0.98% at a new high of 3,347.71, and the OMX Helsinki index up 1.31% to 11,594.06. Bourse volume was 1.56  billion Eur.

Nokia rounded off a strong run this week by adding another 2.70% today to finish at 20.90 Eur, helped by comments by chief executive Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo at an investor meeting in the US that the high-end handset market is in good shape.

SEB Enskilda today repeated its 'buy' stance on the stock and target price of 24 Eur.

Metso rose 4.04% to 43.01 Eur and Outotec climbed 3.79% to 38.30 Eur, while YIT put on 1.81% to 26.37 Eur.

YIT said today it will begin building housing in Rostov-on-Don as part of its push into Russia after agreeing to form a joint venture with a group of local builders.

In telecoms, TeliaSonera added 1.27% to 5.58 Eur, while Fortum ended up 0.74% to 24.62 Eur.

Kemira gained 1.91% to 17.04 Eur, adding to sharp gains Thursday that came on news is looking to sell two of its chemical businesses.

Into Norway now where in Oslo Share prices closed higher, with the Oslo Bors setting a new record high above the 500-mark, led up by Fast Search & Transfer following last night's intra-quarterly advisory, and by DNO following news that production from the North Sea's Enoch field had commenced.

The OSEBX Benchmark index closed 1.03% higher at 501.38, having earlier in the session hit a new all-time high of 501.68.

The OSEAX All Share index added 0.97% to finish at 569.34.

Total turnover amounted to 11.21  billion NKr.

Fast closed 2.65% higher at 15.50, benefiting from positive broker comments following its intra-quarterly conference call last night after the market close.

In the call, Fast told analysts that while sales growth was strong, it expects second quarter profitability to come in at the lower end of market expectations, which range from 1-4  million usd.

SEB Enskila reiterated its 'buy' recommendation and 22 NKr price target on the stock following the call, arguing that it now expects the second quarter EBIT consensus to move nearer towards its own estimate of 1  million usd.

Carnegie, meanwhile, said it was maintaining its 'outperform' recommendation on Fast following the guidance.

DNO closed 1.50% higher at 12.15. This morning the firm said production from the North Sea's Enoch field, in which it has a 10% stake, commenced yesterday.

Expected initial gross production is 12-14,000 barrels per day of oil, and between 550-600,000 cubic metres per day of gas, it said.

Yesterday DNO jumped more than 4% on hopes that a bidding war could emerge for it after an unnamed consortium led by Pendragon Capital abandoned takeover talks because one of its members delayed in making a formal offer.

Norsk Hydro, which yesterday jumped after revealing first quarter results well ahead of expectations, closed up 1.86% at 219.25, only just off new all-time highs hit Thursday.

In Denmark , Copenhagen saw Danish shares close slightly lower, led by Lundbeck after the pharmaceutical group announced disappointing phase 3 trial results for its stroke drug Desmoteplase.

The OMXC20 index closed 2.07 points lower at 498.50 and the OMXCB Benchmark index shed 0.58 points to 482.35.

The OMXC All Share index closed down 0.39 points at 484.93, on turnover of 5.151  billion DKr.

Lundbeck lost 11.75 DKr to 126.25 after phase 3 clinical trials failed to show any statistically significant effects for its stroke drug Desmoteplase, which has been developed with Germany's PAION.

East Asiatic Co added 6.00 DKr to 315.00. Analysts polled by SME Direkt have upgraded their outlook for the group's full year profit after its strong first quarter report, which was released in May.

Pretax profit is seen at 410  million DKr for the full year, up 9.9% on previous estimates.

Topdanmark fell 11.00 DKr to 1,012.00 and Trygvesta shed 11.50 DKr to 467.00 as Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the both insurance groups with a 'sell' rating.

TDC gained 2.00 DKr to 213.00. The group said it is in negotiations over a sale of its 15% stake in Austrian mobile company One.

Danish daily Berlingske Business said, citing unnamed sources, the group may sell the stake to Dutch group KPN.

DSV declined 1.00 DKr at 112.00 despite Fionia Bank upgrading its rating on the transport group to 'buy' from 'sell', saying it sees a 10% upside potential in the share price.

Novozymes was flat at 594.00. News agency RB Boersen said the group is launching two new non-animalic products for use as growth catalysts in cell cultures.

The products will reach the market within a year, Novozymes pharmaceuticals director Peter Rosholm said according to the news agency.

Stockmarket operator OMX said Genmab and AP Moller Maersk's A-share will join the OMXC20 index, consisting of the 20 most heavily traded stocks on the Copenhagen stock exchange, on June 18.

At the same time, Bang & Olufsen and Jyske Bank will leave the index, OMX added.

Genmab was up 3.50 DKr at 401.50, AP Moller Maersk A gained 400 DKr to 66,300, Bang & Olufsen was down 4.00 DKr at 694.00 and Jyske Bank shed 2.00 DKr to 422.00.

Danske Bank added 0.50 DKr to 241.50. The Danish Agency for Governmental Management said it has selected the bank to handle the Danish government's payment transfers, such as taxes and pensions, until 2012.

Among other shares, FL Smidth was down 9.00 DKr at 441.00, Vestas Wind Systems shed 3.00 DKr to 385.50 and Danisco gained 3.00 DKr to 471.00.

Closing out Scandinavia this week is Sweden where in Stockholm shares closed higher on bargain-hunting, with blue-chip industrials doing well in the wake of stronger-than-expected US economic data.

The OMX Stockholm index closed up 1.07% at 423.58, while the OMX Stockholm 30 index rose 1.23% to close at 1,292.02. Turnover amounted to 29.90  billion SKr.

The main sector movers were telecommunication services, which closed up 1.89%; industrials, up 1.78%; and banks, 1.28% higher.

The major movers within these sectors included Tele2 B, up 2.17% at 117.75 SKr bid; Volvo B, 2.93% higher at 149.25; and SEB A, up 1.76% at 231.50.50.

Lundin Petroleum closed down 11.38% at 64.25, after saying a Russian licence committee has recommended that the company's rights to the Lagansky block be taken away, dealers said.

Tele2 announced some M&A news today. It said it has sold its UNI2 Denmark unit to TDC Hosting, with the sale having a positive one-time effect on Tele2's results of approximately 50  million SKr.

Tele2 said it also has acquired the outstanding 24.9% shares in Tele2 Syd, formerly E.ON Bredband Sverige AB, for around 135  million SKr.

After the transaction Tele2 owns 100% of Tele2 Syd.

Atlas Copco A closed flat at 116.25, and Sandvik up 0.97% at 130.

Sandvik was up upgraded to 'overweight' from 'neutral' at JP Morgan, while Atlas Copco was cut to 'neutral from 'overweight' by the broker.

Swinging down to the Mediterranean now and starting with Greece where in Athens Greek shares closed flat, as investors paused for breath after the final day of first quarter results were released yesterday and with Public Power Corp (PPC) and OPAP gains offsetting Motor Oil losses.

The ASE general index closed flat at 4,973.2 while blue chips slid 0.2% to 2,664.1. Mid caps rose 0.3% to 6,287.5 and small caps outperformed, rising 1.3% to 1,081.5.

Advancers outnumbered decliners 164 to 108 while 41 remained unchanged in average trade of roughly 442  million Eur.

Electricty utility Public Power Corp (PPC) rose 1.8% to 20.58 Eur on late in the session buying interest.

Lottery operator OPAP rose 1.6% to 28.88 Eur. Today, Eurobank Sec raised its target price to 29.7 Eur on its solid Q1 results.

Motor Oil led blue chip decliners and dropped 4.9% to 21 Eur. Yesterday, it said that Q1 net profits fell 40% year on year to 27.5  million Eur.

Hellenic Telecoms (OTE) climbed 0.8% to 23.9 Eur after its target price was upped to 26 Eur from 24.6 Eur and kept at 'add' at Eurocorp, citing good Q1 results and cost containment efforts.

Construction holding group Hellenic Technodomiki ended 1.2% higher at 10.02 Eur, partially recovering from losses after it said yesterday that 2007 first quarter net profits were down 34.7% to 16.1  million Eur due to margin pressure.

Neighbours Italy saw Milan Shares prices close broadly flat, underperforming other markets on the absence of merger and acquisition news, with Seat PG gains on broker upgrades offsetting falls in Banco Popolare di Verona e Novara on sharp falls on its Banca Italease affiliate.

The Mibtel index was down 0.06% to 33,705 points, and the S&P/Mib off 0.16% to 43,010.

Volume was an estimated 7.249  billion Eur.

Brokers said Italian shares had failed to keep up with strong German gains, prompted by M&A news and strong economic data, with recent Italian bank sector merger speculation subsiding.

Seat PG was up 2.22% to 0.483 Eur after a Goldman Sachs note rating the stock a 'buy' with a 0.53 Eur target. Analysts said they see Seat PG rising further on refinancing and takeover hopes.

Luxottica extended yesterday's gains, up 1.99% to 26.61, prompted by yesterday's Goldman note favouring the eyewear maker with a 30 Eur target.

Safilo in the same sector gained 1.29% to 4.86.

Among banks, BPVN fell 3.63% to 21.75 on worries over Banca Italease's exposure to the Coppola group and to derivatives trading. BPVN has 30% of Italease, which lost 20.31% to 29.15 after a limit down suspension.

BPVN's merger partner Popolare Italiana fell 3.43% to 11.43.

In the absence of the Italease factor, BPVN would have reacted positively to the 'beautiful' bancassurance alliance announced yesterday evening with Fondiaria-SAI in the life sector, one broker said.

Fondiaria-SAI lost 0.71% to 37.94.

BPM fell 1.42% to 10.99, giving up merger gains recently.

In the energy sector, AEM gained 1.09% to 2.875 and ASM Brescia lost 0.17% to 4.75 ahead of weekend talks on a merger deal.

Enel gained 1.24% to 8.56, supported by sector news, including developments at E.ON, brokers said.

Snam RG was up 1.47% to 4.64. Eni added 0.19% to 26.33.

Fiat was up 0.94% to 21.48, ahead of Friday evening's Italy car registrations.

Alitalia lost 1.70% to 0.815. Aeroflot, one of the two remaining privatisation bidders, said it is keen to buy the airline but is reluctant to pay much for the shares, preferring to invest in expansion.

Fastweb was up 1.87% to 41.50.

And rounding out Europe this week we go to Spain where in Madrid Share prices closed at a second consecutive record high on heavy volumes as M&A speculation continued to fuel gains in Iberdrola and other selected utilities.

The IBEX-35 index closed up 172.1 points at 15,501.5 after trading in a range of 15,321-15,543 on turnover of around 13.3  billion Eur.

Utilities led the gainers, with Iberdrola surging 2.20 Eur or 5.13% to 45.10 extending yesterday's gains on sector consolidation talk.

The Basque group earlier issued a statement denying any knowledge of a deal with third parties related to gaining control of the company.

ACS, which holds around 13% in Iberdrola and is also the subject of M&A rumours, issued a similar statement denying involvement in any pact related to Iberdrola. The constructor closed up 0.82 at 50.60.

Fenosa rose 1.21 or 2.76% to 45.03, also extending gains on continued consolidation hopes.

Also benefiting from M&A talk, NH Hoteles climbed 0.34 or 2.09% to 16.61, after a report that core shareholder Hesperia is looking for a partner to launch a hostile bid for the hotelier.

SCH was firm, putting on 0.22 to 14.50 amid growing optimism that the offer for ABN-AMRO as part of the consortium with RBS and Fortis will be successful.

Among other market heavyweights, Telefonica was up 0.18 at 17.07, and BBVA gained 0.07 to 18.85.

Altadis fell 0.10 to 50.10, as dealers continue to wait for a sweetened bid from Imperial Tobacco.

Sogecable rose 0.15 to 30.21, boosted by May audience share figures, which showed the broadcaster has 8.1% market share.

The news depressed other broadcasters. Antena 3 sank 0.25 to 16.12 while Telecinco was down 0.17 at 21.73.

UK Market - Punch Taverns closed within a whisker of its all-time high as Goldman Sachs added the pub group to its “conviction buy” list.

Goldman said there was “significant upside potential” should Punch opt to convert to a real estate investment trust.

Much depends on whether HM Revenue & Customs will permit a looser definition of rental income to one that includes beer receipts – which is known as “wet rent”. To qualify as a Reit, a company must generate 75% of turnover from rental income.

Goldman wrote in a note: “While Punch has ruled out immediate conversion, potential value upside from conversion makes it compelling in our view. On our estimates, conversion would support a valuation of £17.39.” Punch closed up 2.6% at £13.79.

The FTSE 100 ended at a six-and-a-half year high. The index rose 55.3 points, or 0.8%, to 6,676.7, its highest level since September 2000. The FTSE 250 gained 85.6 points, or 0.7%, to 12,196.7, which was a record high.

A remarkable week for Vodafone ended with the stock up a further 3.1% to 163p, its highest level for more than five years. While Vodafone has risen 7.6% this week alone, JPMorgan poured cold water on talk that AT&T would bid. Analyst Jerry Dellis insisted the UK mobile group did not fit the US group's acquisition criteria.

Home Retail Group firmed 2.4% to 483p on persistent rumours that CVC, the private equity group, was considering a bid. The day's other bid story concerned Hammerson, which hit £16.56 on talk that rival British Land was plotting a takeover.

Given the relative size of the two companies (Hammerson has a market capitalisation of £4.7bn compared with British Land's £7.5bn) analysts thought such a deal hard to swallow. However, Hammerson, which closed up 1.4% at £16.15, remains a takeover target.

Vornado Realty Trust of the US is seen as one credible bidder.

Segro, formerly Slough Estates, gained 1.3% to 725p as talk that a Middle East consortium had financing in place for a bid refused to die down.

In the mid-caps, a roller coaster day for FKI shares – which swung 9p in either direction – saw the engineering group close flat at 138p.

FKI confirmed a takeover approach at 130p-a-share late in the previous session. Friday, competing stories suggested either a higher bid would emerge or the potential bidder, rumoured to be a private equity company, would walk away. Cazenove said on a sum-of-the-parts basis FKI was worth 165p a share. However, talk that the suitor was fellow engineering group Melrose was wide of the mark.

British Energy, the nuclear power group, gained 2.1% to 536p as 400m shares were placed on behalf of the UK government. While the government has cut its holding from 64%, the fact it has retained 39% contained bid speculation.

Nevertheless, UBS raised its stance from “neutral” to “buy”. UBS said: “Last week, we raised our price target to 600p on the back of upgraded carbon price forecasts and the increased visibility of the new nuclear opportunity in the UK. The 10% fall in the share price during the placing of 400m government shares represents a clear buying opportunity.”

Sports Direct slumped 4.4% to a low of 196p a day after chairman David Richardson quit the company.

Even Merrill Lynch, its new joint-broker, was pessimistic about the outlook for the company. “With few catalysts between now and the group's full-year results on 24 July, we expect buying interest in the stock to remain lacklustre,” the bank said in a note.

Spirax-Sarco gained 5.3% to £10.77½ after a push from Kaupthing. The broker insisted that the engineering group should not trade at a discount to its peers, adding the “quality of the business is indisputable”.

Japan & Asia Pacific - Asian stock markets ended mixed Friday. It was the turn of Taiwan and South Korea indices to hit record highs.

Taiwan Weighted got support from US and other Asian markets, while South Korea gained as chip-makers like Samsung Electronics and Hynix Semiconductors jumped on rise in dynamic random access memory chip prices.

Taiwan Weighted closed at 8249 points, up 104.95 points or 1.3%, South Korea's Seoul Composite closed at 1,716, up 15.33 points or 0.90%.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index rose 83.13 points, or 0.47%, to finish at 17,958.88 points, the highest close since Feb. 27. On Thursday, the index rose 1.64%.

The Nikkei average temporarily moved above the 18,000-point mark in morning trade on Wall Street's recent firmness. The Yen's weakness against the Dollar also helped, traders said, inflating overseas earnings and making exports less expensive.

But investors later turned cautious and took profit ahead of the release of U.S. economic data later Friday, including the country's non-farm payrolls.

Gainers included Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., which notched up 4.86% to 2,910 Yen (US$23.85), and Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., which added 2.21% to 8,340 Yen (US$68.36). Japan's top trading company Mitsubishi Corp. rose 3.88% to 3,080 Yen (US$25.25).

In Hong Kong, shares edged down Friday, dragged by property stocks under selling pressure from expectations of higher local interest rates in the near term. The blue chip Hang Seng Index fell 31.60 points, or 0.2%, to 20,602.87. It ended the week 0.4% higher.

The index was up nearly 1% early in Friday's session, but reversed its rise in the afternoon as the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets gave up their morning gains, too.

Shares of Hong Kong-listed insurance companies led the day's gainers, rising on China's plans to widen the scope of overseas investment for domestic insurers.

Blue chip China Life advanced 2.3% to HK$24.70, and Ping An Insurance jumped 4% to HK$47.05.

Other China-related shares also rebounded following declines triggered earlier this week by China's decision to triple the stamp duty on securities trading.

But those gains were offset by declines in property and other blue chip heavyweights, as investors retreated to the sidelines ahead of the release of the non-farm payrolls report for May in the U.S. later Friday, said Michael Wong, an associate director at Hantec Investment.

China's Shanghai Composite shed overnight gains to close lower along with Hong Kong's Hang Seng. Share prices closed 2.65% lower on continued concerns over more possible tightening policies following a hike in stock transaction taxes earlier this week.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 108.91 points to 4,000.72. The Shanghai A-share Index was down 112.89 points at 4,197.08 and the Shenzhen A-share Index shed 61.55 points to 1,181.44 .

The Shanghai B-share Index ended down 19.29 points at 282.33 and the Shenzhen B-share Index shed 36.70 points at 652.33.

In Singapore the Strait Times closed up 37 points or 1.06% at 3548.

In Indonesia, markets were closed for a Public Holiday.

South Korean Share prices closed 0.9% higher, chalking up a fifth consecutive record finish on the week led by Samsung Electronics' nearly four% gain. The KOSPI index ended up 15.33 points at 1,716.24.

In Thailand Share prices closed up 2.24% at a year high as investors welcomed a court ruling disbanding ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra's party and barring him from politics. Dealers said the market bucked a trend of rising regional markets. The composite index jumped 16.53 points to 753.93.

In The Philippines share prices closed 2.09% higher, lifting the key index to a new record, with sentiment boosted by faster-than-expected growth for the three months to March. The composite index added 72.68 points to 3,547.35.

In India the market rose 0.18% in choppy trade a day after India's economy grew a faster than expected 9.4% in the year to March. The 30-share Sensex rose 26.29 points to 14,570.75. - AFP

The Australian stock market finished the week back on high ground as the jitters from Shanghai faded and with a lift from enthusiastic BHP Billiton investors.

At the close, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was up 20 points to 6333.5, while the All Ordinaries gained 21.7 points to 6363.5.

James Packer's Publishing and Broadcasting Limited (PBL) slipped 35 cents to $21.35 after confirming it had sold a further 25% stake in its media businesses.

The idea was floated earlier this week and was today confirmed by a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange.

Private equity group CVC agreed to pay $515 million for a further 25% interest in PBL's media businesses, which includes the Nine television network and ACP Magazines.

The sale leaves PBL with only a 25% stake in its media companies.

Rupert Murdoch's Newscorp has slipped 36 cents to $38.64 after it was announced the company would return to Australia's benchmark share index.

Meanwhile, the Bancroft family has agreed to meet with Rupert Murdoch to discuss his $5 billion bid for Dow Jones, which publishes the Wall Street Journal.

In other news, Mexico's Cemex has stepped up its campaign to take over the Rinker Group, one of the largest construction materials companies in the world.

The Mexican cement producer today announced it had increased its stake in Rinker to about 39%.

But the company needs to secure 50% of shares by the June 22 or its $14 billion offer will fall through.

Rinker slipped six cents to $19.15.

BHP Billiton picked up 64 cents to $32.17 following higher commodity prices.

Qantas was steady at $5.70.

New Zealand shares drifted lower Friday as investors took profits from recent gains heading into a long holiday weekend.

The benchmark NZX-50 index closed down 5.92 points or 0.1% to 4296.43.

Bellwether Telecom fell 1% to NZ$4.80. An industry conference Thursday raised questions about its future under new telecommunications regulations that will split the company and break its monopoly on the fixed-line market.

Medical products maker Fisher & Paykel Healthcare dropped 1.1% to NZ$3.50, nearing its lowest level since late 2005. It was hurt in part by a rising New Zealand Dollar, which again approached US$0.74.

Rural services company PGG Wrightson dropped 4.3% to NZ$1.79 after it gave guidance late Thursday for fiscal year profits at the lower end of a previously advised range.

National carrier Air New Zealand bucked the trend, rising 4.4% to close near a five-year high at NZ$3.10. Improving operating performance has earned it an upward re-rating.

Commodities - Oil prices retreated this week but the state of the US gasoline market remains a concern to traders at the start of the summer driving season.

ICE July Brent rose 58 cents to $68.62 a barrel Friday, down 2.9% this week, while Nymex July West Texas Intermediate gained 80 cents at $64.81 a barrel, 0.6% lower this week.

The US gasoline market remain extremely tight with the US economy sucking in near-record levels of petrol imports as the refining system battles with interruptions to production.

The latest report from the Energy Information Administration on Thursday showed refinery utilisation unchanged at 91.1%, disappointing analysts who hoped to see a rise.

Petrol stocks have risen for four consecutive weeks but remain 7% lower than this time last year.

US drivers face record pump prices but demand growth remains positive, up 1.4% to 9.42m b/d compared with the same period last year.

Nymex July gasoline rose 2.8 cents to $2.2312 a gallon Friday

Gasoline fell 3.9% over the week, due partly to the expiry of the June contract on Thursday.

US grains prices rose strongly this week, supported by concerns that drought could affect wheat supplies from Ukraine, with a ban on exports from July looking increasingly probable. In Chicago, July wheat rose 4.9% to $5.25¾ a bushel this week while July corn rose 3.5% to $3.89 a bushel.

Lead prices hit a series of records this week, with speculative interest boosted by interruptions to supplies from Australia where a delay of one month is expected before 9,000 tonnes of metal can be shipped from the port of Esperance. Lead hit a record $2,385 a tonne Friday, gaining 6.7% this week.

Copper rose 3.2% to $7,457.5 a tonne this week, supported by declines in stocks in Shanghai and on the London Metal Exchange.

Zinc gained 3% to $3,750 a tonne this week helped by LME stocks shrinking to a 16-year low.

Nickel increased 1.7% at $47,350 a tonne in spite of pressure from a rise in LME stocks in May and concerns that steelmakers will increase nickel-free steel production.

Gold was rangebound for much of the week but perked up Friday after the European Central Bank said it had no plans to sell more bullion this year. Under the Central Bank Gold Agreement, European banks have sold around 250 tonnes this year but analysts think they are unlikely to reach the annual 500 tonnes. Gold rose 2% to $668.10 a troy ounce.

Currencies - A deluge of data this week left the Dollar broadly higher as the likelihood of US interest rate cuts later this year faded.

The greenback remained flat for much of the week, only breaking into positive territory Friday on strong US payrolls data.

In May, 157,000 new jobs were created, which was higher than expected. Added to this, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed strong growth in the manufacturing sector in May.

The Euro hit a seven-week high of $1.3394 by midday in New York Friday, down 0.4% on the day and on the week.

Although personal consumption expenditure, the Federal Reserve's favoured measure of inflation, eased slightly in April to an annualised 2%, comments from the Fed this week showed inflation was still a concern.

Randall Kroszner, a Fed board member, said Friday that ”the main risk in the economy remained inflation”.

Over the week, the Dollar gained 0.2% against Sterling to $1.9791, and 0.3% to SFr1.2305 against the Swiss franc. Against the Yen, the Dollar hit Y122.11, up 0.3% over the week and close to a four-and-a-half-year high.

The Euro rose 0.1% to £0.6787 against Sterling and 0.1% to Y163.90 against the Yen as strong readings in the Eurozone economy suggested the European Central Bank's job in tightening monetary policy was not over.

Strong German retail sales supported the view that the sales tax increase at the beginning of the year had only a limited impact on consumer spending.

Eurozone growth was resilient in the first quarter, while unemployment in May hit a record low.

The continuing strength of the Eurozone economy will reinforce the ECB's belief that there is no need for monetary policy to be on the accomodative side.  The ECB is likely to regard the ongoing tightening in the Eurozone labour market in May as heightening the danger that wages could move higher.

Expectations for a 25 basis point rate increase to 4% in June were therefore unchanged, while the prospect of a further quarter-point to 4.25% in September was raised.

The Yen made fleeting gains against higher-yielding currencies, as speculators unwound some of their riskier Yen-funded carry trade strategies.

By the end of the week, however, the Japanese currency had given up its gains and was flat against the Euro at Y163.68 and unchanged against Sterling at Y241.39.

The Canadian Dollar reached its highest level against its US namesake since July 1977 as the country's central bank paved the way for interest rate increases. The currency rose 1.3% over the week to C$1.0642.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars both did very well against the US Dollar. The Australian Dollar gained 0.3% to ¥100.31 versus the Yen and was up 0.4% to $0.8266 versus the greenback. The New Zealand currency, meanwhile, gained 0.6% on the US Dollar to $0.7316 and was 0.89% higher to ¥89.56 in relation to Japan's currency.

Other high-yield currencies also gained in relation to the US Dollar. The Mexican peso was up 0.5% to 10.7349 pesos to the Dollar, while the Norwegian krone added 0.6% versus the greenback to NKr6.0300.

In South Africa The rand stood at R7.1040/US$ at 16:30, about 0.2% stronger than its New York close of R7.12 on Thursday. It firmed to R7.08 earlier.

Here in China, The RMB finished at 7.6473 to the Dollar on the over-the-counter (OTC) market, down from 7.6466 Thursday.

China - China's finance ministry late Tuesday announced the tripling of securities stamp tax to curb the country's soaring stock markets.

An official said the tax hike approved by the State Council -- the Chinese Cabinet -- "is intended to help promote the healthy development of the securities markets," Xinhua news agency reported.

Stamp tax on securities trading will rise from the current 0.1% to 0.3%, beginning May 30, the Ministry of Finance said.

The government lowered the tax rate from 0.2% to 0.1% in January 2005 in an effort to boost stocks trading.

Experts in China and abroad warned earlier this week of an imminent contraction in the Asian giant's roaring markets but defiant investors have continued to trade.

Earlier Tuesday it was reported that the number of stock accounts in China has breached the 100 million mark for the first time, as investors try to cash in.

The country's stock accounts totalled 100.27 million as of Monday, according to data from the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corp Ltd, the official clearing house.

More than one-fourth of the total, or about 26.6 million accounts, had been opened since the start of 2006, the Shanghai Securities News reported Tuesday.

Summary       In the US next week will see the release of a few important economic reports - but nothing as major as this week. Early in the week, data will be released on factory orders and the services industry. Later in the week, numbers on the international trade balance will come out.

At 10 am on Monday, the government will announce data on April factory orders. Economists predict that factory orders for the month will show a 0.6% increase, a slower pace than the 3.5% rise posted in March.

Tuesday morning, the Institute for Supply Management will announce its index of national non-manufacturing activity for May. The report is due out at 10 am ET. This provides a look at the country's services industries. Economists predict the main ISM index will decrease slightly to 55 from April's level of 56.4, indicating expanded growth in that part of the economy.

Friday will see the release of numbers on international trade. Economists are predicting that April's level will come in slightly higher than the deficit of $63.9 billion posted in March.

In Europe The European Central Bank is almost certain to raise its key interest rates to a five-and-a-half-year high next week to curb inflation in the eurozone economy, as it currently enjoys a robust upturn.

The ECB’s rate-setting governing council, meeting next Wednesday in the bank’s Eurotower headquarters in Frankfurt, is unanimously expected to raise its benchmark ‘refi’ refinancing rate by a quarter of a%age point to 4.0%.

With a rate increase next week considered almost a done deal, the markets will be listening out for clues as to whether the cycle of monetary tightening will continue in the coming months. As almost everyone expects the ECB to raise the refi to 4.0% on Wednesday, investors are likely to concentrate on possible hints about the future course of monetary policy.

For Japan, next week could spell trouble for Japanese equities, as capital spending growth is estimated to slow sharply in the first quarter. While this would not be entirely surprising given the 0.9% decrease we saw in the capital spending component of first quarter GDP, the data would not bode very well for the economy as a whole since the weight of expansion would rest on consumers’ shoulders. Now, the Nikkei 225 has already breached resistance at 17,825, but still sits below the psychologically important 18,000 level. Will the bullish sentiment of the equity market keep the index surging towards the February highs of 18,300.39? Perhaps, especially as signs of softer economic growth can be construed as a factor to keep the Bank of Japan from raising rates. With stock markets around the globe reaching for new highs, it’s very likely that the Nikkei 225 will follow suit and hold onto its recent gains regardless of how Capital Spending fares.

So, another 'watch, wait and see' week ahead and as always, I will keep you posted if/when any significant developments occur.

Market Review Newsletter Compiled By

Adrian Page

Managing Director

Financial Page International

Saturday 2 June 2007

www.fpi.hk or www.fpi.cn

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