Financial Page International

21 January  2012- Global Markets Review

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,

Black Monday?

 

More like rosy-red Tuesday .... and beyond as financial markets continued their upward trajectory.

 

But this week, no real signs of 'black anyday' happening as US stocks in particular rose, giving the Standard & Poor's 500 Index its best start to a year since 1987, after confidence among homebuilders topped forecasts, banks rallied and concern about Europe eased.

 

The S&P 500 has risen 4% this year as measures of commodity, financial and industrial shares rallied at least 6.4%. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most- tied to the economy has surged 11% in 2012, with Alcoa and Caterpillar soaring at least 15%.

 

Stocks climbed this week as confidence among US homebuilders rose in January to the highest level since 2007. Equities extended gains as the International Monetary Fund proposed raising its lending capacity by as much as $500 billion to safeguard the economy.

 

US companies that beat analysts' earnings estimates are an exception, rather than the rule, for the fourth-quarter reporting season getting under way. Only 47.1% of companies in the S&P 500 that posted quarterly results between 1 December and Thursday exceeded the average projection

 

So-called positive surprises have surpassed 50% at a comparable point in every other quarterly reporting period for the past four years. The previous low was 51.5% in the third quarter of 2008, when a global financial crisis was taking hold.

 

Early reporters' results are one of two reasons to expect the current earnings season to be disappointing on the whole. The other is that many companies are likely to cut estimates for this year - at the very least, that is what you would expect anyway given the state of the global economy.

 

Another set of successful bond auctions in Europe and renewed confidence in the continent's banks helped markets rally this week as investors awaited developments in Greece's debt-reduction talks with private creditors.

 

The mood has been buoyed by the news that France and Spain seemingly easily tapped investors for money and did so at what were largely affordable rates, in spite of last week's downgrade of their credit ratings by Standard & Poor's.

 

There was also relief that Germany's second-largest bank, Commerzbank, Won't need to help from shareholders or the government to boost its capital base. Its shares rallied this week.

 

That helped banking stocks across Europe, particularly those most exposed to weak government debt. France's Societe Generale and Italy's UniCredit rose at least 15% over the course of the week.

 

What was rather surprising about those banking gains, was that they came the same day that a report on Italian Banks and their 'borrowing' in December was released.

 

Italy's banks, led by UniCredit itself, were the biggest users of the special three-year funding mechanism launched by the European Central Bank in December, according to a new research report.

 

UniCredit - Italy's biggest bank by assets - took €12.5bn of three-year money under the facility, closely followed by Intesa Sanpaolo, with €12bn, and Monte dei Paschi di Siena, which took €10bn, the report from analysts at Morgan Stanley says.

 

The data, submitted to Morgan Stanley but not previously disclosed, underline just how reliant banks in some Eurozone nations have become on emergency mechanisms put in place by the European authorities.

 

It will also stoke the gratitude of the Italian financial system towards Mario Draghi, who took over as president of the ECB in November, instituting the funding mechanism soon afterwards. Banks across the Eurozone periphery have been frozen out of commercial funding markets for months, as investors have shied away from anything other than the most trusted bond issuers.

 

Aside from Italian banks, other significant users of the ECB's three-year facility included Royal Bank of Scotland (always it seems in any 'hand-out' queue), which tapped it for €5bn, via its Dutch subsidiary - equivalent to a quarter of its 2012 funding needs, according to Morgan Stanley, and Spanish banks.

 

The take-up of ECB money by the big Italian banks, amounting to more than €50bn in aggregate, means they have already covered 90% of their total funding needs for 2012.

 

Supporters of the scheme say it has been a vital crutch in ensuring the economies of the Eurozone continue to function as banks reinvest the money in lending to businesses and governments. "The market has underestimated how meaningful the scheme could be to avert a credit crunch," said the author of the report.

 

After an initial hoarding of cash, the total of €489bn raised by more than 500 banks in the December auction has been put to work. Emergency deposits with the ECB have fallen from a peak of more than €450bn early in the new year to €395bn now.

 

A second three-year ECB funding auction takes place on 28 February. Speaking on Thursday in Abu Dhabi, Mr Draghi predicted that take-up of funds in the second round of the scheme would be "probably lower than the first, but very high, still very high". Morgan Stanley predicts banks will take as much as a further €400bn of ECB three-year funding.

 

Analysts believe a two-tier banking system may now be emerging - comprising groups that have access to normal commercial bond funding and those that are reliant on artificial systemic support. There has been a flurry of unsecured debt issuance in the first few weeks of January, breaking the drought in the second half of last year, but only top-rated banks have had access to the market. Mr Draghi said the issuance was "encouraging".

 

He also expressed hope that the worst of the Eurozone crisis was over, praising the "conviction, determination and realism" with which it was being tackled by policymakers.

 

Ladies and Gentlemen; add Mr Draghi's comments to the Basel III rules being diluted - what do you have? A banking system that knows it can borrow, knows it can get a reprieve on its capital ratios and so therefore ...... is back to square one - up shoots bank shares prices at the same time as their bonuses I have no doubt!

 

Banks in Europe were not the only ones ramping up positivity for the week that was.

 

Solid earnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley added to the prevailing optimism. Bank of America returned to profit in the final three months of the year while Morgan Stanley narrowed its losses.

 

And hold on, it's not just European Banks or US Banks that turned positive this week - Japan got into the spirit too!

 

Japan is bolstering its credentials as a haven from global turmoil. At a time of strain in the European interbank market, short-term funding for Japanese banks has never been steadier.

 

On Thursday, the key three-month Tokyo interbank offered rate, or Tibor, stood at 0.32929% for the 80th consecutive trading day.

 

This matches the previous record set between November 2010 and March 2011, when the rate held at 0.33538%.

 

Tibor is a measure of prevailing conditions in the interbank market for Yen, which banks use to address their short-term funding surpluses and shortfalls. As such, it is an index of stress within the banking system.

 

The fact that the three-month EuroYen (offshore) rate, which is used by the biggest Japanese banks, has been unchanged for so long - to five decimal places - is a reflection of two things, say analysts: the Bank of Japan's ultra-low interest rate policy and a lack of willing borrowers in the broader economy after the financial crisis.

 

The balance of outstanding loans at the nation's banks has shrunk in 22 of the past 25 months, despite falling prices for those loans.

 

The average interest rate on new or extended loans dropped to a record low of 1.019% in November, from 1.192% a year earlier, according to BoJ data.

 

That means surplus funds are piling up at the central bank. In December banks' total excess reserves at the BoJ averaged Y23tn ($300bn) a day - not far off the all-time high of Y25tn in March 2011, after the earthquake.

 

The BoJ has made it clear that it is committed to continuing its "virtually zero" interest rate policy until it judges that consumer price inflation of around 1% is in sight.

 

Unlike the Libor process managed by London's British Bankers' Association, which asks each bank to quote the rates at which it thinks it could obtain funding, the JBA asks banks to quote what they think the average market rate is.

 

Like the BBA, the JBA excludes the highest and lowest quoted rates for each maturity and takes the average of the remaining rates.

 

So particularly in banking terms, I guess you are thinking I was wrong to cast doom, gloom and despondency with my views on what is likely to happen with global markets; it Won't be the first time people thought I was wrong .....

 

When I said gold would reach $2,000 before the end of 2011, people thought I was mad; when oil was sat at $35 a barrel and I said it would climb to $110, people thought I'd lost the plot and when I said Italy and in particular Unicredit were in trouble 18 months ago, I received some vitriolic emails from patriotic Italians.

 

So I am not too concerned about markets as they stand today in relation to what I know will still happen.

 

Ladies & Gentlemen, in my 31 December Newsletter just three weeks ago, I mentioned that I felt stockmarkets would rally through much of Q1 - providing Europe did not buckle under its current major issues.

 

So far, so good then.

 

But it seems the World Bank is thinking along the same lines as me because on Thursday it let loose with both barrels and countries from Argentina to Australia sat up and took note.

 

The World Bank Thursday signalled a downturn so severe it would eclipse the chaos that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

 

Launching the World Bank's latest six-monthly assessment of global prospects in Beijing, the bank's lead economist, Andrew Burns, called on vulnerable nations to prepare for the worst and refinance loans now rather than waiting until funds dry up.

 

The bank halved its previous 2012 forecast for economic growth in high-income countries and is forecasting negative growth for the collection of nations that use the Euro as their currency. Its concern is that financial markets could stop working if lenders refuse to roll over European debts.

 

"A much wider financial crisis that could engulf private banks and other financial institutions on both sides of the Atlantic cannot be ruled out," the report says. "Should this happen the ensuing global downturn is likely to be deeper and longer-lasting than the recession of 2008-09.

 

"Countries do not have the fiscal and monetary space to stimulate the global economy or support the financial system to the same degree as they did in 2008-09. While developing countries are in better shape than high-income countries, they too have fewer resources available. No country and no region will escape."

 

Australia, not specifically mentioned in the report, has a relatively good budget position and a better ability than most to ward off a downturn by interest rate cuts and increased government spending, as it did in 2008.

But the bank says commodity-exporting nations such as Australia will find their budgets hit by much lower prices.

 

The World Bank is forecasting worldwide economic growth of just 2.5% this year, down from its previous forecast of 3.6%. Anything less than 3% is commonly defined as a global recession.

 

And for those of you that know me well, you will know that I am a firm believer in Feng Shui - not of the 'commercial' variety it must be said, but of personal Feng Shui.

 

So with Chinese New Year rapidly approaching, I thought that I would share a light-hearted report that I read this week concerning 'Financial Feng Shui' in 2012, the Year of The Dragon.

 

One might expect the Year of the Dragon, which kicks off next week, to be a lucky time for - dragons portrayed so auspiciously in Asia and all that.

 

But that's not necessarily the case, according to this year's edition of the Feng Shui Index released by Hong Kong-based brokerage firm CLSA (yes, honestly, there is such a thing as a Feng Shui Index - albeit not an index as you and I would know one to be).

 

The index, which applies traditional Chinese astrology to market forecasting, predicts a volatile year. Though the Year of the Dragon is traditionally considered auspicious, there are likely to be countervailing forces at work, CLSA says. The reason: This particular dragon year is associated with water, which is far less lucky for investing than other elements like fire and metal.

 

The index predicts a positive end to the year, especially in October and November, when the metal element dominates.

 

CLSA is clear that their Feng Shui Index is meant to be "tongue-in-cheek," and issues several disclaimers such as this one: "To be fair, feng shui's original purpose was to locate auspicious burial spots, not call the twists and turns of the equity markets or individual sectors."

 

The authors of the report also admit that they got last year badly wrong. The Year of The Rabbit was supposed to be especially good for playing the markets. "Lots of luck, if the Rabbit's reputation is any guide," they wrote a year ago. "And best of all for investors, indirect wealth such as market-made moolah will be the order of day."

 

It didn't turn out that way. The S&P 500 in the US was essentially flat in 2011, while Hong Kong's benchmark stock index, the Hang Seng, fell by over 19%.

 

At least one prediction from last year turned out well: CLSA said that Kim Jung-un, based on his "water dog" astrological sign, would have a great year. That's true, if you consider stepping into his father's shoes to lead North Korea to be positive for him.

 

This year, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, a "water snake," is tipped by CLSA to have just a "fair" year, but his horoscope apparently calls for a "job opening" in autumn. That seems like a shoe-in: Mr. Xi is universally expected to become China's next top ruler during the Communist Party Congress late in the year.

 

As I say, Commercial Feng Shui is one thing .....

 

Finally, it was inevitable, but still a sad day for someone of my generation.

 

After pioneering technologies that enabled the rise of Hollywood, the evolution of the family photo album and the first images ever taken on the moon, it seems a cruel twist of fate that the lasting legacy of Eastman Kodak Company (Kodak to you and me) may wind up being the picture-taking technology embedded in millions of smartphones around the world.

 

On Thursday, the 131-year-old photo-image trailblazer filed for bankruptcy, bringing an end to the corporate legacy of one of the most famous brands in the world, another failed giant pushed to irrelevancy by the digital age.

 

At the heart of Kodak's tragic demise is the digital camera, a technology invented by Kodak in the 1970s, only to be ignored by its creators and championed by its rivals.

 

Kodak's downfall is not unique. The company is the latest in a long line of physical media titans that have watched as the evolution of digital technologies subsumed their business models, shredded their profits and eventually reduced them to shadows of their former selves.

 

Whether it was the Internet reordering the music business, Netflix spelling the end for Blockbuster Video or Craigslist pushing hundreds of newspapers into bankruptcy, the ability to digitally transform media and transmit it instantly over the Web has been both disruptive and destructive for once formidable titans.

 

Many other once-untouchable companies - even those which have embraced digital media - will likely soon find they have been pushed into creditor protection by rapidly evolving smartphones and tablet computers.

 

Already, the smartphone is replacing the stand-alone digital camera for casual photographers.

 

Rapid improvements in the quality of digital cameras embedded in smartphones and the photos they take is beginning to reach a point where many consumers no longer feel the need to use a point-and-shoot device.

 

It is not uncommon to find smartphones featuring cameras with high end lenses and 10, 12 or even 14 megapixel resolutions - equal to the quality on many cameras. HTC is launching a new smartphone with a 16 MP camera, while Nokia directed countless research hours to refining the cameras in its new Lumia series of devices.

 

In a recent interview at the Consumer Electronics Show, Nokia chief executive Stephen Elop sounded distinctly like a photobug, expounding on the "apertures," "camera density" and "focal length" of the tiny cameras embedded in his new phones, emphasizing that image capturing quality is now a key consideration in the engineering process of new smartphones.

 

As well, the connected nature of smartphones allows photos to be shared more easily and quickly than ever, and a new generation of cheap image-editing applications is enabling users to transform, stylize and perfect their photos right on the device before showing them to friends.

 

Although point-and-shoot cameras are still found somewhere in most homes, at home is where they probably spend most their time. Apple's iPhone 4 is already the most popular camera for photos posted to the image-sharing site Flickr, already more popular than any digital camera produced by Nikon, Sony, Canon or Kodak.

 

Last month, the NPD Group published a report which found the percentage of photographs taken with smartphones increased from 17% in 2010 to 27% in 2011, while usage of compact cameras, dropped from 52% in 2010 to 44% in 2011.

 

It's a trend that spells trouble not just for still camera manufacturers, but also for companies that produce standalone MP3 music players, GPS navigation devices and even simple wristwatches.

And while digital cameras took more than a decade to fell Kodak, the unprecedented innovation acceleration in the smartphone industry will take its victims in a fraction of that time.

 

I'll give it 5 years before Smartphones can print the pictures too!

 

With that thought of progressive technology, on to the numbers on the boards for the week that was:

US Markets 
How the US did this week .....

 US SummaryMost US stocks rose as higher- than-estimated results at companies including IBM and Microsoft drove technology shares higher and banks rallied.

 

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 0.1% to 1,315.38 at 4 p.m. in New York, erasing a loss in the final minutes of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 96.50 points to 12,720.48, boosted by IBM after its earnings forecast topped estimates. Ten-year Treasury yields topped 2% for the first time in more than a week.

 

The S&P 500 gained 2% for the week, and is up 4.6% for 2012 for its best start to a year since 1997.

 

Sales of previously owned US homes rose in December to the highest level since January 2011. Greek officials and private creditors entered a third day of negotiations on a debt swap deal that's crucial to lowering the country's borrowings and freeing up a second round of international aid.

 

Financial shares had the largest gain among 10 groups in the S&P 500, advancing 0.7%. JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America added more than 1.1%. Technology stocks advanced 0.2% as a group, lifted by higher-than- projected quarterly results from IBM, Microsoft and Intel.

 

IBM, which comprises 11% of the share-price-weighted Dow, rose 4.4% and added 61 points to the 30-stock average Friday. Microsoft climbed 5.7% as the largest software maker's Xbox business got a boost from Christmas shoppers. Intel increased 2.9% as the chipmaker predicted first-quarter revenue that may top analysts' estimates.

 

Google, owner of the most-popular Internet search engine, fell 8.4% as revenue and profit missed estimates. American Express, the largest credit-card issuer by purchases, slid 1.8% as sales trailed forecasts.

 

General Electric, ended unchanged, erasing an earlier decline of as much as 2.5%. Profit topped estimates after its industrial order backlog rose to a record $200 billion even as weaker demand in Europe hindered sales in health care.

 

Earnings probably grew 3.4% for S&P 500 companies in the fourth quarter, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. The projection is down from 4.6% last week and 6.2% at the end of last year. The global economy is forecast to grow 2.3% in 2012, according to the median projection in a survey of economists, down from the estimate of 3.4% in July.

 

Ten-year Treasuries fell for a third day amid optimism the US economy is strengthening and Europe will resolve its debt crisis. Treasuries are off to their worst start since 2003 after yields reached record lows in 2011.

 

A benchmark gauge of US company credit risk rose from almost a five-month low. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index of credit-default swaps, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, increased by 0.7 basis point to a mid-price of 109 basis points, according to Markit Group. 

European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....

 Europe SummaryEuropean stocks retreated from a five-month high as US home sales rose less than forecast, adding to concern that gains in equities have outpaced the outlook for economic growth.

 

Saint-Gobain, Europe's largest building-materials supplier, led construction shares lower, falling 2%. BP Plc paced losses in oil and gas shares. National Bank of Greece rose for an eighth day as talks between Greek officials and private creditors entered a third day.

 

The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.3% to 255.85 at the close of trading, having earlier fallen as much as 0.6%. The gauge has still advanced 4.6% in 2012, the best start to a year since 1997.

 

The Stoxx 600 rose 2.7% this week, a fifth straight advance, amid signs the US economy is recovering, Europe will contain its debt crisis and speculation that China will ease lending curbs to spur economic growth.

 

National benchmark indexes fell in 12 of the 18 western European markets Friday. France's CAC 40, the UK's FTSE 100 and Germany's DAX Index all slid 0.2%. Greece's ASE rallied 2.7% to a two-month high.

 

GERMANY

 

German stocks retreated, with the benchmark DAX Index trimming its fifth weekly advance, as Bayer and Deutsche Telekom dropped and US home sales rose less than economists had forecast.

 

Bayer and Deutsche Telekom decreased more than 1% as analysts downgraded the stocks. Commerzbank, Germany's second-biggest lender, jumped 6.3%, leading rising shares.

 

The DAX slipped 11.87, or 0.2%, to 6,404.39 at the close in Frankfurt, its first drop this week. The gauge posted a 4.3% weekly rally as Spain and France sold bonds at lower yields and a report showed that fewer Americans than predicted had filed claims for jobless benefits. The broader HDAX Index also dropped 0.2% Friday.

 

Bayer declined 1.3% to 53.52 Euros as Germany's largest drugmaker was downgraded to "neutral" from "buy" at Nomura Holdings Inc.

 

Deutsche Telekom lost 1.4% to 8.82 Euros as the phone company was cut to "hold" from "add" at Commerzbank.

 

RWE, Germany's second-largest utility, slid 2.6% to 26.94 Euros. Profit margins at coal-fired plants in Germany may slide as much as 15% as more renewable energy and fossil-fuel plants boost capacity in Europe's biggest market this year and next, Societe Generale SA said.

 

Commerzbank jumped 6.3% to 1.72 Euros, extending Thursday's 15% gain. The lender Thursday said it had reached more than halfway to its goal of raising capital and can find all the remaining money without asking for state aid.

 

Lenders have until the end of Friday to tell national regulators how they plan to meet their capital targets. The European Banking Authority, the agency that drew up the rules, will discuss the findings at meetings with supervisors in London on 8-9 February, it said.

 

Germany's Commerzbank said Thursday it has found a way to increase its capital cushions, as required by regulators to protect against possible losses from the Eurozone debt crisis, without taking more state aid.

 

The bank said it would plug a €5.3 billion ($6.8 billion) capital shortfall identified by the European Banking Authority by "relying on its own strength." The German government already owns 25% of the bank after a previous bailout.

 

Commerzbank said it will raise €6.3 billion in capital by holding back cash from its quarterly earnings and cutting back on risky investments. The bank has until June 30 to find the additional financial padding.

 

Commerzbank's capital needs had been a point of concern in a banking system shaken by Europe's crisis over too much government debt in some countries. The EBA is pushing banks across Europe to raise €115 billion ($147.56 billion) in new capital by June 30 to strengthen the banking system. The crisis affects banks because they hold large amounts of government bonds, whose prices have been affected by fears of default.

 

European officials are trying to prevent losses from the crisis from making banks cut off loans to businesses. That could hurt the economy and deepen what is expected to be at least a mild Eurozone recession.

 

Commerzbank said it had already found €3.0 billion of the required capital by the end of last year by setting aside €1.2 billion in fourth-quarter profits and by cutting its risky loans, securities holdings and other investments by €1.6 billion. Reducing loans and investments - so-called risk weighted assets - reduces the amount of capital needed to backstop against any potential losses on those investments.

 

It added it would find the rest by the deadline using similar methods, saying that it would also save up to €250 million by compensating some employees in stock instead of cash, depending on how many employees participate.

 

Commerzbank needed state aid in the wake of the financial crisis that followed the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008. It has since been buffeted by Greece's financial difficulties; it wrote down €798 million in Greek bonds in the third quarter, saying it had taken a loss of 52% on its holdings.

 

Banks are increasing their capital in a tough environment. It is difficult to raise money from investors by issuing shares due to fears about the banking system. At the same time the EBA is pressing banks not to find the money by cutting back on loans to businesses.

 

Commerzbank cautioned that its plans to meet the capital requirement depended on there being no further deterioration of the economy and, in particular, no further escalation of the government debt crisis. It said that it still has other options if need be, including issuing equity capital instruments.

 

The bank said that it hoped to have capital buffers of 11% against its loans, investments and other securities holdings by June 30. The requirement is to have 9%, though that also includes the financial impact of a simulated partial debt default by a country.

 

Germany sold two-year treasury notes at record low yield in an auction on Wednesday as credit rating downgrades of other Eurozone nations and concerns over a Greek default increased demand for the safe-haven debt.

 

The country raised Eur 3.439 billion from the auction which had a target of Eur 4 billion, the Bundesbank said. The sale attracted bids totaling Eur 7.586 billion.

 

The yield on the December 2013 paper fell to 0.17% from 0.29% in an auction on December 14. Demand was 2.2 times the offer, up from 1.4 in the previous auction.

 

The German government on Wednesday downgraded its 2012 growth outlook as sovereign debt crisis is likely to dampen demand from Eurozone economies.

 

The largest Eurozone economy is expected to grow only 0.7% this year, down from the prior estimate of 1%, the Berlin-based Economy Ministry said in its annual economic report. The growth momentum will be underpinned by private spending.

 

The ministry projects export growth to ease sharply to 2% from 8.2% in 2011. At the same time, annual growth in imports is seen falling to 3% from 7.2% last year.

 

The RWI institute projects 0.6% growth in 2012, in line with the central bank estimate. The largest Eurozone economy expanded only 0.5% in the third quarter of 2011.

 

Wednesday, the ministry said the jobless rate will be 6.8% in 2012, down from 7.1% in 2011.

 

FRANCE

 

In Paris the CAC40 slipped 0.2%, to close at 3321.50.

 

Société Générale rose 4.5%

.

France's growth outlook for 2012 is looking grimmer than ever, a Reuters poll showed, making the government's deficit-cutting goal harder to reach and piling pressure on President Nicolas Sarkozy just weeks before a re-election battle.

 

A poll of some 20 economists, conducted over the past week, showed France probably entered a mild recession in the fourth quarter of 2011, contracting by 0.2% between October and December, then by 0.1% in the first months of 2012.

 

The downturn will be short-lived, the poll showed, with gross domestic product expanding again in the second quarter.

 

But the recovery will be lacklustre, with the economy eking out just 0.1% growth for the full year, well below a previous forecast of 1.0% in a poll conducted in October.

 

The government is also forecasting growth of 1.0%, and its target of cutting the deficit to 4.5% of GDP this year is based on that prediction.

 

Sarkozy's conservative government will determine early next month whether to revise its growth forecast when a budget update is reviewed, a source said on Wednesday.

 

France raised Eur 8.59 billion on Monday at the first debt sale the country held after rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded its triple A credit rating late last week.

 

The debt management agency Agence France Tresor placed Eur 4.503 billion of 12-week fixed-rate short-term discount Treasury bills or BTFs at an average yield of 0.165%, up from 0.023% at the previous sale on January 3.

 

The agency also sold Eur 2.192 billion of 25-week T-bills at an average yield of 0.281%, up from 0.034% in the previous auction on December 19.

 

The country also sold Eur 1.895 billion of 51-weeks paper at an average yield of 0.406%, slightly less than 0.454% paid in the previous sale.

 

Rating agency S&P downgraded France and eight other Euro area countries on Friday of last week. The rating action was a severe blow to President Nicolas Sarkozy's efforts to keep the debt crisis at bay as France prepares for Presidential elections this Spring.

 

France Telecom is in advanced talks to sell its 35% stake in Orange Austria to Hong Kong-based conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa, according to media reports on Monday.

 

The deal may value the whole of Orange Austria at 1.4 billion Euros, or $1.78 billion, and is part of France Telecom's strategy to reduce its footprint in Europe in order to cut down on costs. Orange Austria is owned by France Telecom and private equity firm Mid-Europa Partners.

 

According to media reports, the sale of the Austrian mobile company would probably include spectrum, some infrastructure, and the prepaid business, which operates under the brand 'Yesss!.

 

Orange Austria is the third-largest mobile business in Austria, with around 20% of the market. In 2010, the group recorded revenue of 578 million Euros and net loss of 9 million Euros.

 

France Telecom's Chief Executive Officer Stephane Richard has said that he plans to focus on bolstering the company's presence in emerging markets, especially in Africa and the Middle East, and exit slower growing European markets.

 

France Telecom, in late December, agreed to sell its Swiss mobile subsidiary, Orange Communication S.A, to private equity group Apax Partners for 1.6 billion Euros.

 

In late October, France Telecom said that its revenues for the third quarter, excluding the impact of regulatory measures, declined 0.5% from last year, reflecting lower mobile device sales.

 

BELGIUM

 

The Bel 20 in Brussels ended the week at 2,199.08, up 0.11%.

 

Consumer sentiment in Belgium declined in January to its lowest level since mid-2009, data released by the National Bank of Belgium revealed Thursday.

 

The consumer confidence indicator fell to -16 from -12 in December, when it climbed from November's -14. The latest reading is the lowest since July 2009, the bank said.

 

Expectations regarding the domestic economy deteriorated, following a strong improvement in the previous month. The corresponding indicator tumbled to -22 from -10.

 

The index reflecting expectations on unemployment rose to 34 from 31, indicating a deterioration in the assessment. The view on the financial situation of households was stable, with the score remaining unchanged at -5.

 

Belgians were also less upbeat regarding savings and the relevant index fell to -4 from -1.

 

Belgium sold Eur 2.96 billion of treasury bills on Tuesday and the country's one-year borrowing costs declined.

 

The Belgian Debt Agency planned to raise Eur 3 billion from the sale.

 

The agency sold Eur 1.76 billion of 3-month bills at yield of 0.429%, up from 0.264% paid in the previous sale on January 3. The bid-to-cover ratio, however, improved to 2.24 from 2.13.

 

The country placed Eur 1.2 billion of its 12-month T-bills at a yield of 1.162%, down from 2.167% in an auction in December. Demand was 2.06 times the offer, less than the 2.21 in the previous sale.

 

THE NETHERLANDS

 

In Amsterdam the AEX headed into the weekend on 320.31, a drop of 0.05% on the day.

 

Bulgarians and Romanians are ready to work for very low wages in Belgium, thus undercutting the local labour market, according to Belgian State Secretary for Repression of Fiscal and Social Fraud John Crombez.

 

Crombez's first task at his new office will be to cope with the problem that employees from the two EU newcomers are posing, according to local media.

 

Currently, some 5343 Bulgarians are living in Belgium, compared with just 892 in 2007, when the country joined the European Union. The number of Romanians residing in Belgium has grown from 5193 to 23 204 over the last five years.

 

Bulgarians and Romanians working in Belgium are most frequently employed in the fields of construction, agriculture and healthcare.

 

Crombez considers tightening the control when it comes to companies hiring foreign workers, Belgian newspapers have reported.

 

Belgium is among European Union member states that officially prolonged the temporary ban on Bulgarian and Romanian workers for two more years, until the beginning of 2014.

 

SWITZERLAND

 

Zurich's SMI drew a line under the trading week at 6,122.67, down 1.16% for the Friday session.

 

Switzerland is considering new legislation to ease banking secrecy in a bid to fight money laundering, the police and justice department said on Wednesday.

 

The Federal Council wants to amend the the law on money laundering to allow authorities to send "specific financial information such as bank account numbers, information on transactions and capital or account balances," to foreign partners, the department said in a statement.

 

This will help in "the fight against money laundering and the financing of terrorism" and "strengthen the integrity of Switzerland as a financial centre," it said.

 

The draft law aims to extend the powers of the Money Laundering Reporting Office of Switzerland (MROS) so it can demand information from third-party intermediaries after a suspicious transaction has been carried out.

 

Bern on Wednesday approved the draft amendment bill to be submitted for consultation by April 20 this year. In the interim period, cantons and political parties are to establish their positions on the subject.

 

The MROS has not been able to provide foreign partners with financial information such as bank account numbers because such information is covered by provisions on "banking secrecy or official secrecy," the Swiss department said.

 

This has had a negative impact on Switzerland, officials said, since many countries apply the principle of reciprocity and thus do not provide any financial information to the MROS.

 

In addition, since July 2011, the Egmont Groupt, representing 127 financial intelligence units, has threatened to suspend Switzerland because it is the only member that does not share information with partner authorities.

 

"Such a suspension could damage the reputation of Switzerland as a financial centre," say Swiss authorities who want to "dismantle the obstacle of secrecy in executing administrative assistance."

 

Overnight stays in Switzerland's accommodation facilities decreased modestly in November, preliminary data released by the Federal Statistical Office showed Monday.

 

Visitor overnight stays in Switzerland's hotels decreased 0.2% year-on-year to around 1.8 million in November.

 

Stays by international visitors dropped 2% annually, while overnight stays by domestic visitors increased 2% during the month.

 

In the January-December period, overnight stays declined 2% from the corresponding period last year to around 33.1 million. Stays by foreign visitors and domestic visitors decreased 3.3% and 0.2% respectively during the period.

 

Switzerland's producer and import price index decreased from last year in December, data released by the Federal Statistical Office showed Monday.

 

The producer and import price index decreased 2.3% on an annual basis in December. The domestic producer price index dropped 2.2% year-on-year, while import prices fell by 2.6%.

 

Month-on-month, the import and producer price index moved up 0.3% in December, with domestic producer prices rising 0.2% and import prices growing 0.5%.

 

In the year 2011, the producer price index dropped 0.9% from last year. Domestic producer prices fell 1.1% and import prices dropped 0.5% during the year.

 

AUSTRIA

 

The ATX in Vienna rounded out the week on 2,019.73, up 0.94%.

 

Austria avoided an expected economic downturn late last year and remains healthy, Finance Minister Maria Fekter told parliament on Thursday.

 

The economy expanded 0.3% in the third quarter versus the second quarter. The flash estimate for the final 3 months of the year is due on Feb 15.

 

"The Wifo (research institute) forecast for things to go downhill in the fourth quarter and third quarter of last year didn't happen. That means our economy is healthy and well under way, and I am confident that this will also be the case in 2012," she said.

 

The government uses Wifo forecasts to help set economic policy. Wifo expects the export-driven Austrian economy to eke out 0.4% growth this year after expanding 3.2% in 2011.

 

Fekter said her conservative People's Party and its Social Democrat coalition partners were still working on a package to improve state finances, a goal reinforced by Standard & Poor's decision to cut Austria's debt rating by one notch to AA+.

 

Telekom Austria was cut one level Friday by Moody's Investors Service after the company's weak operating performance strained the former phone monopoly's finances.

 

The operator was cut a notch, to Baa1 from A3, on the "expectation that Telekom Austria's operating performance will remain weak," Moody's said in a statement. The investment-grade rating is three levels above junk credit. The outlook is stable.

 

The Austrian government's 28.4% stake in the operator spared Telekom Austria from being cut by another grade, Moody's said. The company, which owns mobile networks in seven eastern European countries, may face liquidity constraints as it pays back 1 billion Euros ($1.29 billion) of debt this year.

 

Telekom Austria cut its 2011 and 2012 dividend forecasts by half on 16 December, citing the adverse economic climate and investments that will weight on its cash flow. Private-equity investor Ronny Pecik, who controls 20.1% of the company through shares and options, had criticized Telekom Austria's dividend policies.

 

Austria's producer price inflation slowed for the second straight month in November, data released by Statistics Austria showed Thursday.

 

The output price inflation slowed to 3.3% in November from 3.4% in October. In September, the inflation rate was 3.5%.

 

Producer prices of energy products climbed 10.4% annually, contributing the most to the overall growth in November. Prices of intermediate goods rose 2%, while prices in the capital goods industry advanced 0.9%. There was a 2.3% year-on-year increase in consumer goods prices during the month.

 

Month-on-month, output prices moved up 0.2% in November, recovering from the previous month's 0.1% decline.

 

Austria's consumer price inflation eased in December, data released by Statistics Austria showed Monday.

 

Inflation slowed to 3.2% in December from 3.6% in November. In October, the rate of inflation was 3.4%.

 

Consumer prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 4% year-on-year, while clothing and footwear prices advanced 2.7%. There was a 3.7% annual growth in housing costs and utility prices during the month, and a 4.5% increase in transportation costs.

 

Compared to November, consumer prices edged up 0.2% in December, the agency said.

 

At the same time, the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), measured under the EU methodology, increased 3.4% in December, slower than the previous month's 3.8% growth. Month-on-month, the HICP moved up 0.2% during the month.

 

In the year 2011, the average annual inflation was 3.3%, higher than 1.9% recorded in 2010. The HICP inflation for the year was 3.6%.

 

SWEDEN

 

The OMX in Stockholm completed a hectic trading week on 1,033.30, down 0.44%.

 

Sweden should establish a new committee based at its central bank with responsibility for the country's financial stability, a Swedish research body said in a report Thursday.

 

The Centre for Business and Policy Studies, or SNS in Swedish, said that for fiscal and monetary policy to be credible they need financial stability.

 

"But where the responsibility for that financial stability on a macroeconomic lies is today unclear," SNS said. To rectify this, "a financial committee should be established at the Riksbank but be kept separate from the monetary policy decision making process," SNS said.

 

One of the report's authors, Anna Larsson a researcher at Stockholm University, told an audience here that a new committee announced on Wednesday was a "step in the right direction" but only a temporary measure.

 

The Riksbank and Sweden's financial regulator said on Wednesday that they would set up a council to meet twice a year to evaluate risks to the economy.

 

In its report SNS examined the fiscal and monetary rules which Sweden has established and followed in recent years. Here Sweden is like the "best boy in class", report author Morten Ravn said.

 

The report said that the budget surplus target of 1% of gross domestic product and inflation target of 2% have been positive for the economy and should be left in place.

 

EQT, the Swedish private equity business with €18bn in committed capital, is reportedly considering shifting the management of its funds to onshore European domiciles following clarification of EU regulation.

 

EQT cites further clarification of the regulations around alternative investment management and managers as the reason for its move.

This means future funds are likely to be managed out of the UK, Netherlands, or Luxembourg.

 

EQT's website claims it runs 14 private equity funds involved in buyouts, financing and infrastructure, with more than €10bn invested in some 100 companies.

Conni Jonsson, managing partner, was reported last year suggesting that the company might opt for a so-called "Channel Islands solution".

 

Sweden's unemployment rate exceeded economists' expectations in December, data from a survey by AMV showed Tuesday.

 

The unemployment rate remained unchanged from last year at at 4.7% in December, indicating stability in the labour market. Economists expected the jobless rate to be 4.6%.

 

The number of unemployed persons decreased modestly to 214,304 in December from 216,020 a year earlier.

 

There were 49,477 new vacancies reported at the end of December, higher than 46,033 reported a year earlier.

 

DENMARK

 

Copenhagen's OMX closed out the Friday trading session on 405.46, down 0.87%.

 

Denmark, home to the world's biggest household debt burden, Won't lose its top credit rating any time soon as stable public finances and a current account surplus offset the risks, Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's said.

 

"Denmark is not a country we are particularly worried about," Fitch Managing Director Edward Parker said in an interview in Stockholm Thursday. "We are not expecting over the near term to be taking negative action on Denmark."

 

Denmark, which is struggling to emerge from a burst housing bubble and regional banking crisis, is lagging behind its Scandinavian neighbors on economic growth and budget deficit reduction. Still, bond investors are rewarding the government for a public debt burden that's half the Euro area's average and snapping up Denmark's debt. The Nordic country pays about 10 basis points less than Germany to borrow for 10 years.

 

Investors haven't been swayed by Denmark's record private debt burden, which at 310% of disposable incomes in 2010 is the world's biggest, Exane BNP Paribas estimates. Instead, markets have focused on public debt in their hunt for havens.

 

Small Danish financial institution Vestjysk Bank said on Thursday it was considering asking the government to come to its aid by converting a hybrid loan into equity, which could put the government in control of the bank.

 

Vestjysk Bank, which got a state hybrid capital loan of 1.44 billion crowns ($248.20 million) to help it through the financial crisis, could become the 11th small Danish bank to be taken over by administrators since the crisis began in 2008.

 

The tiny bank, which nonetheless ranks as Denmark's eighth biggest, has also issued 7.7 billion crowns in government-guaranteed bonds, which mainly mature this year and next year.

 

Shares in Vestjysk Bank slid 12.5% to 14.0 crowns by 10.46 GMT, putting the bank's market capitalisation at about 175 million crowns.

 

"The bank, as part of its constant assessment of its capital position, is investigating the possibilities for partially utilising the conversion option linked to the bank's acceptance of state capital," Vestjysk Bank A/S said in a statement.

 

"An eventual conversion could, depending on the point in time of conversion and amount converted, lead to the state being the main shareholder in the bank," said Vestjysk Bank.

 

It added, however, that so far it had not applied to the authorities for conversion of the loan into equity and said that there had been no change in its financial position that would necessitate a conversion.

 

Denmark's output prices increased from last year in December, data released by Statistics Denmark showed Monday.

 

Domestic supply prices increased 4.1% on an annual basis in December. Prices of Danish-produced goods rose 6% year-on-year, while prices of imported goods rose 3% during the month.

 

Prices of raw materials meant for industries rose 5.3% during the month, while prices of raw materials for agriculture dropped 0.9%. There was a 16.8% annual growth in fuel and lubricant prices during the month.

 

On a monthly basis, domestic supply prices moved up 0.1% in December, the agency said.

 

FINLAND

 

In Helsinki the OMX finished the week at 5,887.16, down 0.31%.

 

Finland is one of four countries in the Eurozone to have retained its Standard & Poors AAA rating for creditworthiness.

    

The credit rating agency downgraded its rating for nine other Eurozone countries on Friday.

    

The news led to an initial one% decline of the Euro against the US Dollar. This was later followed by a slight recovery.

    

Standard & Poors warned that Finnish prospects are still negative, which means that downgrades in 2012 and 2013 are still possible.

    

According to S&P Finland's creditworthiness faces pressures stemming from the EU's inability to make decisions to resolve the debt crisis in the Eurozone.

    

Finland has retained its highest rating with two other rating agencies - Fitch and Moody's.

 

Finland's producer price inflation slowed to the lowest in twenty-two months in December, data released by Statistics Finland showed Tuesday.

 

The producer price inflation slowed sharply to 1.8% in December from 3.7% in November, which was unchanged from October. The latest rate was the lowest since February 2010, when output prices increased 1.2%.

 

Prices of goods sold in the domestic market advanced 2.2% annually, while prices of goods meant for the overseas market moved up 1.3% in December.

 

At the same time, the export price index moved up 1.3% year-on-year in December, while the import price index climbed 4.6%.

 

On a monthly basis, producer prices edged down 0.4% in December, after holding flat in the previous month.

 

Nokia will publish its fourth quarter and annual results 2011 on Thursday January 26, 2012 at approximately 1pm Finnish time. The press release will be available on the Nokia website immediately after publication.

 

Nokia's analyst conference call will begin at 3pm Finnish time. A webcast of the conference call will be available Here at http://www.nokia.com/global/about-nokia/investors/financials/reports/results---reports/.

 

Nokia publishes in stock exchange releases a summary of its interim reports only. The stock exchange releases include a quarter-specific link to the complete interim reports with tables in PDF-format. The complete fourth quarter and annual results 2011 report with tables will be available Here http://www.results.nokia.com/results/Nokia_results2011Q4e.pdf.

 

Investors should not rely on summaries of Nokia's interim reports only, but should review the complete interim reports with tables.

 

NORWAY

 

Oslo's OBX pulled the curtains on the trading session Friday at 365.18, down 0.75%.

 

As credit ratings for European countries continue to be downgraded, investors are seeking a stable alternative in the form of Scandinavian government bonds. One place they are doing so is Norway.

Yields on 10-year Norwegian government bonds dropped to 1.81% earlier this month from 2.4% in September 2010, bringing them almost at par with safe-haven German bunds.

Even though yields in Norway had risen back to 2.13% by Wednesday, the country has been able to avoid the worst of the economic slowdown in Europe. The economy was growing at an annual rate of roughly 3.8% at the end of the third quarter.

 

Norwegian banks tightened credit standards for households and corporates in the final three months of 2011, according to the central bank's quarterly bank lending survey published Thursday.

 

The lenders said they expect somewhat tighter credit standards for households and unchanged credit standards for enterprises in the first quarter of 2012.

 

Meanwhile, corporate credit demand decreased in the fourth quarter of 2011, while household credit demand increased. Responding to the survey, the banks said they expect broadly unchanged household credit demand and reduced corporate credit demand.

 

Lending margins rose on both household and corporate loans in the fourth quarter and banks expect lending margins to continue to rise somewhat on both household and corporate loans ahead.

 

Norges Bank's bank lending survey was conducted during December 22, 2011 to January 9, 2012.

 

Norway's merchandise trade surplus increased to the highest in around three years in December, data released by Statistics Norway showed Monday.

 

The trade surplus climbed 10.8% from last year to NOK41.19 billion in December, hitting the highest level since 2008.

 

Export of goods increased 6.3% from last year to NOK81.25 billion during the month. Shipments of crude oil advanced 6.7% annually, while dispatches of natural gas climbed 8.1%.

 

The value of imports moved up 2% year-on-year to NOK40.06 billion in November, while on a monthly basis, arrivals decreased 8.8%.

 

In the January-December period, the value of exports increased 12.5% from the corresponding period a year earlier, while imports rose 9.3%, the agency said.

 

SPAIN

 

The IBEX in Madrid drew to a close Friday on 8,561.90, down 0.49%.

 

Spain passed its biggest test of market sentiment so far this year on Thursday, selling more longer-term debt than hoped as the government pressed ahead with efforts to reform an ailing economy aided by a European Central Bank backstop.

 

The sale, which included benchmark 10-year paper and followed a strong auction of shorter bonds last week, meant Madrid had already covered 19% of its funding needs for 2012 and raised hopes of a revival in demand for debt from other parts of the Euro zone's struggling periphery.

 

It also signalled markets have largely shrugged off last week's salvo of Euro zone rating downgrades from Standard & Poor's, an impression reinforced by a strong bond sale in Paris.

 

Spain's first 10-year bond offering since mid-December raised more than forecast at 3 billion Euros, at a yield of 5.403% that broadly met expectations and marked a drop of more than 150 basis points since the same bond was last sold in November.

 

Bankinter, a Madrid-based mortgage lender, took 5 billion Euros ($6.45 billion) in three- year loans from the European Central Bank and will put some of the funds to work by lending them out.

 

The bank will lend the money in higher-yielding loans and also use it to acquire short-duration government bonds and buy back its own debt, Chief Executive Officer Maria Dolores Dancausa said in a news conference in Madrid Friday.

 

As many as 523 Euro-area lenders took money from the ECB's injection of 489 billion Euros into the banking system last month. Spanish banks' average borrowings from the ECB rose in December to 118.9 billion Euros, the highest level in 18 months, after lenders tapped the loans.

 

Spain successfully raised Eur 6.61 billion from the sale of its bonds maturing in 2016, 2019 and 2022 on Thursday, far exceeding the maximum target set for the auction, reports said.

 

The Spanish Treasury had planned to raise between Eur Eur 3.5 billion and Eur 4.5 billion from the sale. The yield on the 10-year debt reportedly declined and demand was stronger than the previous auction on November 17.

 

The latest bond sale was the first since Standard & Poor's downgraded Spain by two-notches to 'A' from 'AA-'. Investors have apparently shrugged off the credit rating downgrade news as indicated by the debt auction results this week. Spanish debt yields also declined at a Treasury bills auction on Tuesday, the first debt sale since the S&P downgrade last week.

 

Spain saw its borrowing costs decline on Tuesday in the first debt auction since rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded its credit rating last week.

 

The Spanish Treasury raised Eur 4.88 billion from 12-and 18-month treasury bills sale versus its target of between Eur 4 billion and Eur 5 billion.

 

The yield on the 12-month debt fell to 2.049% from 4.050% at an auction on December 13. The country paid 2.399% on the 18-month paper, down from 4.226% in the previous sale.

 

Demand for 12-month bills was 3.54 times the offer, up from 3.14 in December. The bid-to-cover ratio for the 18-month debt, however, fell to 3.23 from 4.97.

 

Standard & Poor's downgraded nine Eurozone nations last Friday, including the top-rated France and Austria. Spain received a two-notch rating cut to 'A' from 'AA-'.

 

Investors have apparently shrugged off the credit rating downgrade news as indicated by the debt auction results this week. Elsewhere Friday, the European Financial Stability Facility raised Eur 1.501 billion from the sale of its new six-month bills, data from the Bundesbank revealed.

 

The Euro area rescue fund sold the 6-month paper at an average yield of 0.2664%. Demand was 3.1 times the amount on offer. The debt offering came just a day after S&P cut EFSF credit rating to 'AA+' from 'AAA'.

 

PORTUGAL

 

Lisbon's PSI General concluded the week Friday at 2,165.68, up 0.15%.

 

Portugal is trading in default territory after investors offloaded the country's bonds this week amid rising fears of contagion, hurting a government debt auction on Wednesday. Worries are mounting that the private sector and Greece will fail to agree a restructuring package for Athens' debt.

 

Portuguese 10-year bond yields, which have an inverse relationship with prices, jumped to a new Euro-era high of 14.40% in London on Wednesday.

 

Portugal does not have a bond maturing until June, when €10bn is due for repayment. Its borrowing needs are also modest at €17.5bn. However, investors worry about Portugal's painfully slow growth, which could impact on its ability to service its debts.

 

Many investors were forced to sell Portuguese bonds after Standard & Poor's downgraded the country to junk on Friday. Other funds sold Portuguese debt after Lisbon was removed from Citigroup's European Bond Index, which these investors track, because of its fall to junk status.

 

All three main credit rating agencies, S&P, Moody's, and Fitch, rate Portugal as junk, below investment grade. In the Eurozone, only Greece is also rated junk by all the agencies.

 

The markets are pricing in a 65% chance that Portugal will default over the next five years, according to credit default swaps. These instruments, which protect some investors from default, while others use them as a speculative device, leapt to record highs this week.

 

Portuguese bond prices have slumped to levels considered by many investors to be in default territory. Bond prices for benchmark 10-year debt were trading at slightly over 50% of par on Wednesday morning, recovering from levels below 50% on Monday.

 

Portugal successfully raised the maximum amount it planned at an auction of its treasury bills on Wednesday, which was the first sale since Standard & Poor's downgraded the country's rating last week.

 

The debt agency IGCP raised Eur 2.5 billion from the sale of Portugal's 3-,6- and 11-month paper. The agency planned to raise between Eur 2 and Eur 2.5 billion from the auction.

 

The country sold Eur 1.25 billion of the December 2012 bill at an average yield of 4.986%, down from 5.902% in the previous sale on April 6 last year. The bid-to-cover ratio for the 11-month paper was 2.1 compared with 2.6 in the previous auction.

 

This was the first auction with nearly a year maturity since the country raised Eur 455 million in the April 6 auction at higher cost and it sought a bailout from the European Union the same day.

 

The 6-month T-bill was placed on a yield of 4.740%, down from 5.250% in a sale on November 16. The country sold Eur 754 million of the security. Demand was 3 time the offer, down from 4.1 in the previous sale.

 

The 3-month debt was placed at a yield of 4.346%, unchanged from the previous auction on January 4. The agency raised Eur 496 million from the sale. The bid-to-cover ratio rose to 4.1 from 2.4.

 

ITALY

 

The FTSE Mibtel in Milan closed the week on 15,632.10, down 0.13%.

 

Italy's banks, led by UniCredit, were the biggest users of the special three-year funding mechanism launched by the European Central Bank in December, according to a new report.

 

UniCredit - Italy's biggest bank by assets - took €12.5bn of three-year money under the facility, closely followed by Intesa Sanpaolo, with €12bn, and Monte dei Paschi di Siena, which took €10bn, the report from analysts at Morgan Stanley says.

 

The data, submitted to Morgan Stanley but not previously disclosed, underlines just how reliant banks in the peripheral Eurozone nations are on emergency mechanisms put in place by the European authorities.

 

The take-up of ECB money by the big Italian banks, amounting to more than €50bn in aggregate, means they have already covered 90% of their total funding needs for 2012.

 

Supporters of the scheme say it has been a vital crutch to ensure the economies of the Eurozone continue to function. After an initial hoarding of cash, the total of €489bn raised by more than 500 banks in the December auction has been put to work. Emergency deposits with the ECB have fallen from a peak of more than €450bn early in the new year to €395bn now.

 

A second three-year ECB funding auction takes place next month, which Morgan Stanley predicts will generate as much as €400bn more of funding demand.

 

Banks' normal funding sources - unsecured debt issuance - virtually dried up in the second half of last year. There has been a flurry of issuance by top-rated banks in the first few weeks of January, suggesting that a two-tier banking system may be emerging - comprising groups that have access to normal commercial bond funding and those that are reliant of artificial systemic support.

 

Italy's current account deficit decreased from last year in November, data released by the central bank showed Wednesday.

 

The current account deficit declined to Eur3.45billion in November from Eur5.15 billion a year earlier.

 

The deficit in the goods trade account decreased to Eur1.12 billion in November from Eur2.77 billion last year, while the deficit in the services account narrowed sharply to Eur815 million from Eur1.42 billion

 

The income account showed a deficit of Eur1.36 billion during the month, higher than the previous month's Eur744 million deficit. The balance in the current transfers account was a deficit of Eur151 million, lower than the Eur212 million deficit recorded in November 2010.

 

The twelve months ended November, the balance in the current account was a deficit of Eur56.21 billion, higher than the Eur49.09 billion deficit seen in the corresponding period last year.

 

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said that Germany and other creditor nations should do more to help Italy and other indebted nations to lower their borrowing costs.

 

In an interview to the Financial Times, Monti warned that there would be a powerful political backlash among the Eurozone's struggling periphery if the creditor countries failed to act.

 

He said that it was in Germany's "own enlightened self-interest" to make use of its strong fiscal weight to lower the borrowing costs of Italy and other struggling governments.

 

He told FT that the introduction of commonly-backed bonds and increasing the rescue fund's firepower could help calm the nervous investors, an idea fiercely opposed by many in the German government.

 

Monti noted that Italy was cutting expenditure "for the good of future generations of Italians."

 

GREECE

 

In Athens, the Athex Composite ended both the session and the week on 708.18, up 2.67% for Friday.

 

Economic reforms in highly indebted Greece are coming along slowly, but the Greeks have made many sacrifices and people must be patient, the head of the European Commission's special task force to help rebuild the Greek economy said on Thursday.

Greece meets its private creditors on Thursday for a second day of bargaining on a crucial bond swap deal, with time running out for reaching a compromise needed to avoid an unruly default.

 

Speaking on German television, Horst Reichenbach stressed the need for a quick agreement and continued disbursement of bailout payments.

 

"No one I speak with dares to imagine what would happen if the coming weeks do not lead to a good result, if the private banks' participation cannot be agreed and if the next tranche of aid is not paid out," he said on German broadcaster ARD.

 

With austerity programs hitting Greek household finances hard, public opposition to reform is not surprising, he said.

 

"It's clear the Greeks have been forced to make enormous sacrifices, and in many areas," he said. "So strikes and demonstrations are not so surprising."

 

"On the other hand, the political class knows that it must negotiate, that it must perform, that it must convince creditors, and that something must change in Greece."

 

Sales of Greece's 13-week treasury bills exceeded target at an auction on Tuesday.

 

The Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) sold Eur 1.625 billion of 13-weeks paper versus the Eur 1.25 billion on offer. The sale attracted bids totaling Eur 3.630 billion.

 

The yield fell slightly to 4.64% from 4.68% at the previous auction on December 20. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.90, compared with 2.91 in the previous sale.

 

Primary dealers can additionally submit non-competitive bids up to 30% of the amount initially auctioned until January 19, the PDMA said.

 

Greece's money managers saw a 25% increase in the value of net outflows from mutual funds in 2011 compared with 2010, the Hellenic Fund and Asset Management Association said.

 

Equity assets managed were negatively affected by a 60% drop last year in the level of the Athens Stock Exchange's FTSE/ASE 20 large-cap index, the Athens-based group said in an e-mailed statement Friday. Equities accounted for 22% of total mutual-fund assets and bonds for 23%.

 

The total value of UCITS mutual funds stood at 5.2 billion Euros ($6.7 billion) at the end of December, down from almost 8 billion Euros at the end of 2010 and 5.9 billion Euros at the end of the third quarter, according to the statement.

 

Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities, or UCITS, is a regulated European fund format that allows managers to invest in derivatives, according to the European Commission's website.

 

The total value of assets managed by the association's 35 members, including real-estate and closed-end funds, declined to 8.55 billion Euros as of 31 December from 9.6 billion Euros on 30 September, the association said.

The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....

 UK MarketsA rating downgrade for Petrofac sent its shares toward the bottom of the FTSE 100 on Friday while the index slipped back from six-month highs.

 

The oilfield services company fell 4.3% to £14.40 after JPMorgan Cazenove cut its rating on the stock from "overweight" to "neutral", citing concern about Petrofac's pipeline of new orders.

 

The biggest single faller on the index was Weir Group. Traders said the engineer was vulnerable to record-low natural gas production prices, raising questions about the outlook for capital expenditure. The engineer's pumps, valves and storage products are widely used in the shale gas industry. Its shares fell 6% to £19.76.

 

Weaker commodities markets also left resource stocks exposed.

BP fell 3.1% to 467½p following a downgrade from Oddo Securities. BG Group shed 2.2% to £14.57 and Royal Dutch Shell B was 1.6% softer at £23.29.

 

The FTSE 100 closed little changed, losing 12.60 points to 5,728.55, a fall of 0.2%. The slip came after it reached a six-month closing high on Thursday, having finished above 5,700 points on Wednesday for the first time since late October. The index was up 1.3% over the week.

 

Interdealer broker Icap was the top blue-chip riser, gaining 4.1% to 335¾p. It was helped by upbeat broker comment on the stock from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which called it "significantly undervalued". In the wider sector, Royal Bank of Scotland was 1.4% higher at 27½p and Schroders, the fund manager, gained 1.7% to £14.61.

Talk of the potential benefits to Diageo of a sale of its Guinness brand came along with a rating upgrade from Investec Securities. The broker raised its rating on the stock from "hold" to "buy", saying any such sale could increase the company's firepower for a move into emerging markets. The stock rose 0.9% to £13.93.

 

Hopes that the resolution of Vodafone's longstanding dispute with the tax authorities in India could lead to a fresh capital return from the company gave its shares a boost.

 

HMV looks set to survive the turbulent conditions on the high street after striking a deal with its banks to waive covenants on £180m of debt - a move that came after it announced key suppliers in the music and film industry were to take a small equity position in the group.

 

Both developments sent shares in HMV rocketing on Friday, up almost 200% at the close.

 

Now that HMV is one of the only specialist retailers on the high street selling CDs and DVDs after the collapse of Zavvi and Woolworths, its suppliers, have acted to preserve their biggest route to market. Warrants representing 2.5% of the group's equity have been granted to key film and music suppliers, including Vivendi-owned Universal Music, Sony, Warner Brothers, Disney and Paramount in accordance with their share of HMV's business.

 

This show of support has convinced its banking syndicate to amend and reset covenant tests due on its existing borrowings in 2012 with "significantly enhanced headroom".

 

Premier Foods, the company behind brands such as Hovis and Mr Kipling, jumped 37% this week after announcing ambitious cost cutting plans, an intention to concentrate on its core "power brands" while selling non-core businesses, as well as its intention to cut staff numbers by 5%.

 

Aim-traded advertising company Adventis rose 175% after announcing better than expected trading results and the completion of its restructuring plan while, in contrast, Sunkar Resources plunged 50.7% on news of a diluting share placement at the Kazakh phosphorite company.

 

Drug developer Phytopharm rose 20% after releasing positive pre-clinical results for Cogane, its treatment for a severe form of motor nEuron disease.

 

Online fashion retailer Asos advanced 19% on the back of its strong Christmas results. The Aim-quoted company announced that revenues had risen 45% over the same period in 2010 with sales growing by a similar amount. Asos's North American division saw sales growth of 146%.

 

Fashion brand Mulberry also bounced, by 12.5%, due to its own strong Christmas results. The fashion brand reported a 35% like-for-like sales rise over Christmas driven by strong sales of its classic handbag designs.

 

The UK unemployment rate reached its highest level since 1995, increasing concerns about the fragile state of the economy. However, people claiming unemployment benefits increased by less than expected in December.

 

Data from the Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday that the jobless rate was 8.4% of the economically active population during the three months ended November. That was the biggest since 1995 and larger than the 8.3% rate expected by economists.

 

The number of unemployed rose 118,000 over the three month period to 2.68 million, which has not been higher since 1994.

 

Weakened economic activity, low business confidence and mounting public sector job cuts look set to take a serious toll on jobs through much of 2012.

 

The Ernst & Young ITEM Club provided a bleak outlook for the UK labour market in its quarterly report. The think tank said unemployment will be just shy of the 3 million mark in the first half of 2013, representing 9.3% of the UK's labour force.

 

The ONS said the number of people in employment rose by 18,000 to 29.12 million, which represents a rate of 70.3%.

 

In December, there were 1.60 million people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance, up 1,200 on the previous month. Economists were expecting an increase of 7,000. The claimant count rate remained unchanged at 5%, in line with expectations.

 

Total pay, including bonuses, rose by 1.9% annually during three months to November, down from 2.1% in the three months through October. Likewise, regular pay, excluding bonus, grew 1.9%, but up from 1.8%.

 

British consumer confidence declined in December due to continued strong pessimism regarding the economy's prospects this year, a survey by Nationwide Building Society revealed Thursday.

 

The consumer confidence index fell to 38 in December from 40 in November. This was the second lowest score in the survey history. Despite the decline, the index was above October's record low of 36. The expectations index fell to 50 from 55 in November.

 

"Right to the end, 2011 was an extremely tough year for UK consumers," Nationwide said. "With the UK recovery unlikely to gain much forward momentum in 2012 we are unlikely to see confidence surge in the near term," they added.

 

Economic as well as political uncertainty in the Eurozone has paralyzed the UK economy's recovery and it has entered a technical recession, the Ernst & Young ITEM Club said in its quarterly forecast on Monday. The 2012 growth forecast was downgraded to 0.2% and it expects 1.8% expansion in 2013.

 

Meanwhile, Nationwide said it expects slowing inflation to help to ease the squeeze on household income. The Bank of England had forecast inflation to ease sharply this year.

 

Official data showed this month that consumer price inflation in the U.K slowed to a six-month low of 4.2% in December from 4.8% in November.

 

During its monetary policy meeting earlier this month, the Bank of England left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.50% and continued the quantitative easing program at the current level, given that additional measures announced in October are yet to conclude. Economists widely expect more stimulus from the central bank at the February meeting.

Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN
 
Tokyo stocks posted strong gains Friday, as a sharply higher Euro on the back of easing tension over Euro-zone financial issues, helped exporters such as Honda, Canon and TDK to push the Nikkei Stock Average to a fresh 10-week high.

 

The Nikkei added 126.68 points, or 1.5%, to 8766.36 following the prior session's 1.0% advance. The closing mark was the highest for the benchmark index since 7 November.

 

For the week, the Nikkei added 3.1% and is now up 3.7% for the year so far. The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues also added 14.79 points, or 2.0%, to 755.47, with 31 of 33 subindexes ending in positive territory.

 

Volume continued to look brisk, as 2.59 billion shares changed hands - the highest total since 9 August. It was the third straight session that the figure exceeded 2.0 billion, underscoring the return of robust investment flows.

 

The broader indexes opened sharply higher and remained well above break-even for the duration of the session.

 

Initial overseas investor buying patterns also looked bullish, as offshore accounts at nine foreign brokerages placed net buy orders for 11.3 million Japanese shares overnight - the first day of premarket buying after 11 days of selling to start the new year.

 

Initial buying of semiconductor-related shares following the release of Intel's solid earnings results was short-lived for many issues, as players took advantage of the prior session's sharp gains to lock in profits. Tokyo Electron lost 0.5% at Y4,335, while Dainippon Screen Manufacturing dropped 2.8% at Y661.

 

Others managed to survive the sell-pressure to close still higher, however. Advantest added 1.2% at Y762 and Kyocera tacked on 2.7% at Y6,550. Chip wafer maker Sumco added 6.3% on top of Thursday's 9.4% advance to close at Y645.

 

The Topix real estate subindex was the biggest percentage gainer on the board, adding 5.7% after Fuji Media Service, a subsidiary of Fuji Media Holdings, announced a takeover bid for Sankei Building on January 19. The tender offer of Y740 per share was roughly 150% higher than Sankei's closing value the previous day, sparking speculative bidding throughout the real estate sector.

 

Japan's average cash earnings per employee declined less than initially estimated in November, preliminary data from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare showed Thursday.

 

Total cash earnings were down 0.2% year-on-year compared to the preliminary estimate of 1% drop.

 

Regular pay dropped 0.3% annually, in contrast to an initially estimated 0.3% rise. Meanwhile, overtime pay rose 2.2% from a year ago, revised up from 1.3%.

 

Mitsui Fudosan and Mitsubishi Estate ended up 7.0% at Y1,258 and up 6.3% at Y1,264, respectively.

 

Financials were led by Nomura Holdings's 5.2% advance to Y281. Dai-ichi Life Insurance also added 5.2% at Y81,100, while Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group surged 5.1% at Y350 after US financial shares rallied overnight on earnings results from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.

 

March Nikkei 225 futures closed up 100 points, or 1.2%, at 8750 on the Osaka Securities Exchange.

 

SOUTH KOREA

 

Korean stocks jumped 1.82% Friday as signs of optimism in Europe and the US eased jitters, whetting foreign investor appetite for risky assets, analysts said. The local currency rose against the US Dollar.

 

The benchmark KOSPI gained 34.83 points to 1,949.80. Trading volume was moderate at 397.4 million shares worth 7.24 trillion Won ($6.38 billion) with gainers outpacing losers 490 to 353.

 

Foreign investors snatched up local shares worth 1.41 trillion Won, the largest net purchase since Sept. 1 last year, extending their buying streak to a ninth consecutive session.

 

Foreigners scooped up tech issues, causing the market behemoth Samsung Electronics to rise 3.08% to 1,105,000 Won and leading chip maker Hynix Semiconductor to soar 2.47% to 26,950 Won.

 

Brokerages and financial firms boosted the KOSPI, with Mirae Asset Securities spiking 7.61% to 37,450 Won and No. 3 player Woori Investment & Securities surging 6.35% to 13,400 Won.

 

Shipbuilders and oil refiners finished bullish. STX Offshore & Shipbuilding skyrocketed 11.72% to 13,350 Won and top refiner SK Innovation shot up 6.69% to 10,500 Won.

 

In contrast, autos lost ground, with No. 2 player Kia Motors shedding 0.3% to 67,300 Won and smallest maker Ssangyong Motors falling 3.79% to 7,370 Won.

 

North Korea owes South Korea more than W1 trillion in loans provided in the form of food aid and other support, according to government data on Wednesday (US$1=W1,142). If the W2.3 trillion South Korea provided indirectly to North Korea through the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) between 1998 and 2006 for the abortive construction of a light-water reactor is included, the total amount of loans swells to around W3.5 trillion.

 

According to the Unification Ministry, the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations gave North Korea 2.4 million tons of rice and 200,000 tons of corn in the form of loans between 2000 to 2007 that the North has to repay over 20 years at an annual interest of 1%.

 

The food aid amounted to US$720 million and carried a 10-year grace period. Interest payment alone totaled $155.2 million. The first tranche of the loans maturing on June 7 of this year amounts to $5.83 million. North Korea has to repay $5.78 million in 2013, $19.73 million in 2014, and $19.56 million in 2015. The redemption deadline continues until 2037.

 

HONG KONG

 

Hong Kong shares ended Friday at their highest in more than three months, tracking Wall Street's gains overnight on hopes of a continuous recovery of the global economy, with banking giant HSBC leading the gains.

 

The blue-chip Hang Seng Index rose 167.42 points, or 0.8%, to end at its intraday high of 20,110.37, the highest since it closed at 20,212 on Sept. 2. Market volume totaled HK$65.96 billion, slightly down from HK$78.85 billion Thursday.

 

However, analysts said Hong Kong's blue-chip index will likely face profit-taking pressure next week after a 5.8% rise this week and an accumulative 9.1% rally since the start of this year.

 

The local bourse will resume trading next Thursday after closing from Monday to Wednesday for the Lunar New Year holidays.

 

Banking heavyweight HSBC jumped 3.7% to HK$64.55, on the back of an improved global economic outlook as well as easing concerns about the European debt crisis. UK-based Standard Chartered ended 4.2% higher at HK$186.40.

 

Sportwear retailer Li Ning surged 8.5% to HK$7.29 on news that it has agreed to sell US$119 million in convertible bonds to US buyout firm TPG Group and Singaporean sovereign-wealth fund Government of Singapore Investment Corp.

 

Bucking the trend, property and transport company Shun Tak Holdings fell 6.7% at HK$2.93 after it said Friday it plans to raise up to US$250 million in a rights issue to fund its existing business activities and new investment opportunities. Jewelry retailer Luk Fook fell 7.9% at HK$29.80, following a shares placement to raise HK$1.36 billion Thursday.

 

Hong Kong's jobless rate declined to 3.3% during October to December, the Census and Statistics Department said Thursday. The unemployment rate was 3.4% in September to November period.

 

The underemployment rate also fell to 1.4%, from 1.5% in September to November. The number of unemployed persons decreased by around 5,100 to 116,100 during three months ended December.

 

Secretary for Labour and Welfare, Matthew Cheung Kin-chung said, "Increased business activities during the run-up to the Lunar New Year will boost Labour demand further; and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at low levels in the near term."

 

CHINA

 

China's shares ended at a six-week high Friday as a marginal increase in a leading manufacturing indicator cemented views that China's economy is far from a hard landing while optimism from Europe also aided sentiment.

 

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, ended up 1.0%, or 23.05 points, at 2319.12, the highest level since 8 December, when it closed at 2329.82. The Shanghai index rose 3.3% this week. The Shenzhen Composite Index gained 1.6% to 861.15.

 

The preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, a gauge of nationwide manufacturing activity, rose to 48.8 in January compared with a 48.7 final reading in December. It was a third straight month of contraction for the gauge, but the modest rise reinforced the view that Asia's biggest economy was likely to avoid a hard landing.

 

China's stock market will be closed for the whole of next week and will reopen on 30 January.

 

Among the biggest gainers was Shenzhen Development Bank which said it will spend as much as CNY2.7 billion to gain full control of its unit Ping An Bank. SDB jumped 6.3% to CNY16.78 on trade resumption; it had been suspended from trading since 10 January.

 

Funds continued to flow into insurers that have low price-to-earnings ratios, analysts said. China Life rose 1.7% to CNY19.33, Ping An rose 1.5% to CNY39.10, and China Pacific added 2.9% to CNY21.84.

 

ZTE ended up 2.1% at CNY15.35 after the company late Thursday dismissed talk that it had lost its patent lawsuit with Ericsson. Both firms have also agreed to withdraw all patent infringement lawsuits against each other.

 

A leading indicator for the Chinese economy rose at a faster pace in December, signaling an improvement in economic activity in the coming months due to a number of seasonal factors.

 

The Conference Board said Wednesday that its leading economic index (LEI) increased 0.7% in December to 222, following a 0.5% increase in November and a 0.4% increase in October.

 

The coincident economic index, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.8% in December to 215.4, following a 1.1% increase in November.

 

TAIWAN

 

Taiwan markets were closed Friday for the Lunar New Year holiday.

 

Despite continuing uncertainty over the Eurozone debt crisis, Taiwan's economy is expected to bottom out by April thanks to the recovering US economy, Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) Vice Chairman Hu Chung-ying said Wednesday.

 

Hu said he was cautiously -optimistic about the global economy this year because the strength of the US economy would partly offset the negative impact of the European debt problem.

 

Hu's remarks came a day after the World Bank warned of a possible slump in its Global Economic Prospects report.

 

The report said a recession in Europe and a slowdown in developing countries would hurt the world economy as a whole.

 

The World Bank cut its growth forecast for the 17 Eurozone countries from 1.8% to minus 0.3% this year, and trimmed its forecast for developing countries this year from 6.2% to 5.4%. It forecast that the US economy would grow 2.2% this year.

 

"The rising strength of the US economy is far stronger than the downside drag from Europe," Hu told a media briefing.

 

However, this does not mean the Eurozone's debt problem would not impact Taiwan's economy at all, he added.

 

Since the peak period of European countries' debt repayment would be between next month and April, Hu said this would drag down Taiwan's economy in the first quarter, with the potential impact on the economy extending even into April.

 

However, if the Eurozone's debt problem could be solved or controlled in the first quarter, Taiwan's economy would rebound after the first quarter as it benefited from the rising US economy, he said.

 

"This would help Taiwan to maintain at least 4% economic growth this year," Hu said.

 

THE PHILIPPINES

 

The Philippine central bank's decision to cut its interest rates sent the Philippine stock market rallying to another record high on Friday.

 

The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index jumped by 1.01% or 47.53 points to 4,747.90, while the broader all-share index gained 0.76% or 24.09 points to 3,193.15.

 

Trading volume reached 5.66 billion shares worth 7.45 billion pesos (171.90 million US Dollars) with 108 stocks advancing, 58 declining, and 43 unchanged.

 

All six counters closed higher, led by the property sector which jumped by 2.32%.

 

The Philippines cut interest rates for the first time since July 2009, joining emerging markets from Thailand to Indonesia in easing monetary policy as a deteriorating global economy threatens growth.

 

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lowered the rate it pays lenders for overnight deposits by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25%, according to a statement in Manila Friday. The decision was predicted by 13 of 17 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, with the rest expecting no change. The central bank maintained the reserve requirement ratio at 21%.

 

"The Philippine economy is likely to face external headwinds in 2012," Governor Amando Tetangco said in the statement. "The benign inflation outlook allowed some scope for a reduction in policy rates to help boost economic activity and support market confidence."

 

SINGAPORE

 

Singapore share prices ended 1.36% higher on Friday, ahead of the Lunar New Year break for local investors.

 

The blue-chip Straits Times Index rose 38.18 points to close at 2,849.38 amid regional bullishness after some positive US earnings results as well as increasingly encouraging US economic data.

 

Regional sentiment was also boosted after strong French and Spanish bond sales.

 

Overall volume traded on the Singapore Exchange was robust, at 1.69 billion shares. The value of shares traded on Friday crept above the S$2 billion mark. Gainers outnumbered losers 253 to 140.

 

Among the gainers, Noble Group surged 5.8% to S$1.285 while Genting Singapore climbed 3.9% to S$1.595.

 

Markets in Singapore will be closed on Monday and Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holidays.

 

Singapore attracted a record S$13.7 billion in fixed asset investments in 2011, the Economic Development Board (EDB) said in a statement on Tuesday.

 

This was almost in line with the forecasts made in January last year for investments worth S$12 billion to S$14 billion. In 2010, EDB fetched S$12.9 billion.

 

The investment planning agency said that it expects investment commitments to be sustained around 2011 levels. It forecasts to achieve S$13 billion to S$15 billion in fixed asset investments this year.

 

Investment interest in Asia remained healthy in spite of the uncertainties in the global economy, especially in the Eurozone, the Board said.

 

Fixed asset investments refers to capital investment in facilities, equipment and machinery.

 

MALAYSIA

 

Bursa Malaysia closed higher Friday on good buying momentum as investors found bargains in heavyweight counters despite some profit taking ahead of the extended weekend.

 

At 5pm, the FBM KLCI rose 5.85 points or 0.39% to 1,522.66 after opening 1.33 points higher at 1,518.14.

 

A dealer said sentiment was boosted by bullish regional performance following overnight gains on Wall Street and solid demand for Spanish and French bond auctions.

 

"Despite the long break, investors were willing to take more risk as they were upbeat of the year of the dragon as Friday was the last trading day for the year of rabbit," he added.

 

The market will be closed on Monday and Tuesday for the Chinese New Year celebrations.

 

The Finance Index advanced 59.58 points to 13,473.27 and the Plantation Index jumped 81.20 points to 8,586.91 but the Industrial Index declined 2.04 points to 2,771.75.

 

The FBM Emas increased 47.02 points to 10,526.88, the FBM Mid 70 perked up 66.26 points to 11,893.15 and the FBM ACE was up 30.47 points to 4,367.73.

 

Some 1.65 billion shares worth RM1.49 billion changed hands compared with 1.94 billion shares worth RM1.62 billion Thursday with gainers overwhelming losers 512 to 249.

 

DBE Gurney was among the most active after the company confirmed that it had plans for a private placement to raise funds for working capital requirements and was in talks with a shareholder of CI Holding Bhd.

The counter declined one sen to 12.5 sen while its warrants lost half a sen to seven sen.

 

Among heavyweights, Maybank gained six sen to RM8.26, Sime Darby slid two sen to RM9.08 while Petronas Chemicals was unchanged at RM6.68.

 

Volume on the Main Market declined to 1.03 billion shares worth RM1.40 billion from 1.13 billion shares valued at RM1.5 billion registered Thursday.

 

Turnover on the ACE Market slipped to 463.64 million units worth RM71.84 million from 505.52 million units worth RM65.58 million recorded previously.

 

Warrants decreased to 157.26 million units valued at RM20.81 million from 297.85 million units worth RM48.11 million.

 

Malaysia's consumer price inflation slowed more than economists expected in December, data released by the Department of Statistics showed Wednesday.

 

The consumer price index increased 3% year-on-year in December, after rising 3.3% in November. Economists expected inflation to ease to 3.1%.

 

Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose 5.1% annually, while clothing and footwear prices moved up 0.8%. There was a 1.7% annual growth in housing costs and utility prices during the month, and a 1.9% rise in prices in the transport sector.

 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.1% in December. In the January-December period, prices increased 3.2% from the corresponding period last year.

 

THAILAND

 

The Stock Exchange of Thailand main index declined 0.28 points or 0.03% to close at 1,058.66 on Friday. Trding turnover was modest at 26.36 billion Baht, with 3.49 billion shares traded.

 

The SET50 index ended at 739.56 points, down 1.04 points or 0.14 %, with trade value of 16.21 billion Baht. The SET100 fell 2.03 points or 0.13% to 1,608.94 points, with total turnover of 20.18 billion Baht.

 

The SETHD index went down 5.27 points or 0.51% to 1,031.96 points, with total trade value of 7.29 billion Baht. The MAI index rose 0.28 points or 0.10% to close at 278.24, with total transaction value of 587.14 billion Baht.

 

The top five most active shares were; INTUCH closed at 46.00 Baht, up 2.00 Baht (4.55%). ADVANC closed at 150.00 Baht, down 3.00 Baht (1.96%); STA closed at 20.80 Baht, up 1.20 Baht (6.12%).

 

KBANK closed at 123.50 Baht, up 2.50 Baht (2.07%) and ESSO closed at 12.40 Baht, up 0.60 Baht (5.08%).

 

Rice production in Thailand, the world's largest exporter, may climb 16% to an all-time high in the season from October as farmers expand plantings to offset losses from floods that inundated farms this crop year.

 

Total output may surge to 36 million metric tons, split between 25 million tons in the main crop and a second harvest of 11 million tons, Apichart Jongskul, secretary-general of the Office of Agricultural Economics, said in an interview Friday. Annual production may total 31.05 million tons in the current crop year after the floods, down from 34.48 million tons the previous season, data from the Bangkok-based office show.

 

Higher output from Thailand, together with a record crop from India and shipments from Vietnam, may depress global prices even as the Thai government pursues a policy of purchasing rough rice from farmers above local rates. It's normal to see a bumper crop after flooding, according to Korbsook Iamsuri, president of Thai Rice Exporters Association, the largest shippers' group.

 

"Farmers will increase production to make up for losses from floods," Apichart said. The government's price-support program -- introduced by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra last year -- will also encourage farmers to plant more, he said.

 

INDONESIA

 

The Jakarta Composite index fell 0.4% to 3,986.52, the first drop in four days. The gauge has gained 1.3% this week, its sixth weekly increase.

 

Nickel producers: International Nickel Indonesia, the nation's biggest producer of the metal, increased 4.2% to 3,725 rupiah, the highest close since Oct. 28. Aneka Tambang, the second largest, climbed 1.2% to 1,750 rupiah. Nickel futures advanced 3.6% to $20,200 a metric ton in London Thursday, the steepest increase since 16 December.

 

Selamat Sempurna, an automotive component maker, rose 2.6% to 1,560 rupiah. The company signed an agreement Thursday with Tokyo Radiator to set up a joint venture to produce and trade heat-exchange products, Selamat Sempurna said.

 

Semen Gresik, Indonesia's biggest cement maker, fell 4.8% to 11,850 rupiah, the sharpest drop since 1 November, as recent gains were deemed excessive, according to analysts at Valbury Asia Securities in Jakarta. The stock's 14-day relative-strength index, a moving average based on how rapidly prices have advanced or fallen, rose to 71 Thursday. A reading of 70 or above suggests to some investors that the stock is poised to fall.

 

Actual foreign direct investment in Indonesia increased to IDR 175.3 trillion in 2011, data from Investment Coordinating Board showed Thursday.

 

Investment inflows into the economy is expected to rise after the nation received rating upgrades from two credit rating agencies.

 

Thursday, Moody's Investors Service lifted the sovereign ratings of Southeast Asia's largest economy to investment grade. Earlier, Fitch Ratings made a similar revision in December.

 

INDIA

 

Indian shares ended at their highest level in more than six weeks Friday, with bank shares leading the gains and with support from positive Asian markets.

Trading remained choppy in the latter half of the session mirroring weak European stocks. Also, investors trimmed positions heading into the weekend.

 

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index added 0.6% to end at 16,739.01. This was the index's highest finish since closing at 16,877.06 on Dec. 7, 2011.

 

Friday, the Sensex traded between 16,611.71 and 16,788.48.

On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty gained 0.6 % to close at 5,048.60.

 

Trading volume in the BSE's cash segment increased to 28.80 billion Rupees from Thursday's 24.62 billion Rupees. Decliners outnumbered gainers 1,481 to 1,363, while 112 stocks were unchanged.

 

The Sensex has risen 8.3% so far this month, with foreign fund buying seen as a key contributor to the comfortable start in 2012.

 

Deutsche Bank said in a note that the improvement in equities, among other markets, reflect more the easing of global uncertainties than a genuine turnaround in the Indian economy.

 

"Investors have by no means given up on India; they just need a more enabling set of regulations, as well as tangible improvements in governance and macro conditions," the house said.

 

The bank index jumped 3.5% to touch a more than two-month high.

 

Indian shares ended at their highest level in more than six weeks Friday, with bank shares leading the gains and with support from positive Asian markets.

 

Trading remained choppy in the latter half of the session mirroring weak European stocks. Also, investors trimmed positions heading into the weekend.

 

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index added 0.6% to end at 16,739.01. This was the index's highest finish since closing at 16,877.06 on Dec. 7, 2011.

 

Friday, the Sensex traded between 16,611.71 and 16,788.48.

On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty gained 0.6 % to close at 5,048.60.

 

Trading volume in the BSE's cash segment increased to 28.80 billion Rupees from Thursday's 24.62 billion Rupees. Decliners outnumbered gainers 1,481 to 1,363, while 112 stocks were unchanged.

 

The Sensex has risen 8.3% so far this month, with foreign fund buying seen as a key contributor to the comfortable start in 2012.

 

Deutsche Bank said in a note that the improvement in equities, among other markets, reflect more the easing of global uncertainties than a genuine turnaround in the Indian economy.

 

"Investors have by no means given up on India; they just need a more enabling set of regulations, as well as tangible improvements in governance and macro conditions," the house said.

 

The bank index jumped 3.5% to touch a more than two-month high.

 

India's food prices decreased for the third time in a row in the week ended January 07, but the rate of decline eased from the previous week, preliminary data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed Thursday.

 

Wholesale prices of food articles decreased 0.42% on an annual basis in the week ended January 07, slower than the 2.9% fall seen in the preceding week ended December 31. Food prices dropped for the third month in a row.

 

Prices of primary articles as a whole increased 2.47% year-on-year in the seven-day period, following the previous week's 0.51% growth. At the same time, prices of non-food products moved up at a faster rate of 1.84% than the preceding week's 1.29% rise.

 

Meanwhile, the growth in fuel and power prices remained unchanged at 14.45% during the week, the agency said.

 

AUSTRALIA

 

Improving market sentiment around Europe's sovereign debt crisis and the US economy buoyed Australia's share market Friday.

 

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed up 0.6% at 4239.6 after base-metal prices rallied overnight and shares on Wall Street reached the highest levels in six months. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as US jobless claims fell, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley earnings beat market expectations, and the Greek government and private-sector creditors appeared to move closer to a debt-restructuring deal.

 

Energy, industrials, consumer-discretionary and materials stocks outperformed, while the consumer-staples, utilities and health-care sectors lagged. Woodside Petroleum gained 1.5%, Lynas and Iluka surged 11% and 7.9%, respectively, and Macquarie jumped 3%.

 

While the market remained hemmed in by resistance from a symmetrical triangle pattern, some traders were taking a positive view after the S&P 500 rose 4.5% year to date, thanks to improving economic data and a cooling of concern over the European crisis.

 

Woodside Petroleum hit an eight-week high of A$34.17 as analysts applauded its December-quarter production report, although RBS said the potential for Royal Dutch Shell to dump its 24% stake would cap near-term upside potential.

 

Iluka surged to a five-month high after CLSA initiated coverage of the company with a Buy rating and A$20 price target. The broker was bullish on the titanium dioxide pigment market and said Iluka was trading on undemanding price multiples with an attractive dividend yield.

 

Lynas Corp. shares hit a 13-month high before Malaysia's Atomic Energy Licensing Board meets on Jan. 30 to decide whether the company should be granted a temporary license to operate a planned rare earths plant in eastern Malaysia. Malaysia's cabinet has said it will make the final decision after the atomic-energy agency makes its recommendation.

 

Investment bank Macquarie Group hit a two-week high after US peer Morgan Stanley surged 5.4%.

 

AGL Energy retreated 0.3% after Citigroup Inc. cut its rating to Neutral from Buy, saying coal-seam gas is turning into a headache for the company in New South Wales state. Its ability to pursue its exploration program in the Gloucester and Hunter basins is being hampered by community issues reluctance by the state government to take a decisive stance on the long-term role of coal-seam gas, the bank said.

 

Australia land sales improved slightly in the September quarter, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) said Thursday. This was the third consecutive increase in sales volume.

 

The volume of land sales increased 1.3% in the September quarter compared to the previous period. However, volumes were still 16.8% lower than in the September quarter of 2010 and was less than half the September 2009 peak.

 

The weighted median land value in Australia grew 0.5% in the September quarter to be 1.7% higher than the comparable quarter in 2010.

 

Inflation expectations among Australian consumers increased in January, mainly due to higher transport costs, the Melbourne Institute said Thursday.

 

The median expected inflation rate increased to 2.8% in January from 2.4% in December.

 

Australia's leading indicator of employment increased for the fifth month in a row in January, but the rate of growth slowed from the previous month, the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR) said Wednesday.

 

The leading indicator of employment increased by 0.015 point on a monthly basis in January, after rising 0.063 point in December. In November, the index advanced by 0.088 point. However, cyclical employment recorded decline for the eleventh consecutive month, data showed.

 

DEEWR said it is early to confirm that a quickening in employment growth is in prospect, because the indicator has risen for fewer than six consecutive months.

 

The leading indicator is designed to give advance warning of turning points in cyclical employment, which is measured as the deviation of the one-year trend in employment from the six-year trend.

 

NEW ZEALAND

 

New Zealand shares gained for a fourth day as the prospect of a low-interest rate environment encouraged confident investors to seek out higher-yielding stocks. Listed property entities paced Friday's rise.

The NZX 50 Index rose 11.71 points, or 0.4%, to 3276.45. Within the index, 23 stocks rose, 16 fell, and 11 were unchanged.

Turnover was $78.5 million.

 

Listed property companies paced the benchmark index as investors sought out traditionally high-yielding stocks, with Goodman Property Trust gaining 1.5% to $1.10, Argosy Property Trust up 0.6% to 81 cents, DNZ Property Fund rising 0.4% $1.275, and Kiwi Income Property Trust gaining 0.5% to $1.035.

 

Food ingredient manufacturer Goodman Fielder led the NZX 50 higher Friday, gaining 4.9% to 64 cents.

 

Pumpkin Patch gained 4% to 52 cents, following Thursday's 7.1% gain, as investors regained confidence in the retailer after it Thursday announced it would quit its ailing UK operation.

 

Fletcher Building continued its rally, gaining 0.6% to $6.28 as long-term investors take advantage of the traditionally low share price.

 

Shares in Contact Energy were unchanged at $4.86 Friday, having dropped 6.2% this week.

 

Tower was the biggest decliner on the benchmark index, falling 4% to $1.44. The insurer's ownership is up in the air at the moment, as cornerstone shareholder Guinness Peat Group exits its investments, though the Canterbury earthquakes have dimmed the sector's immediate appeal.

 

GPG gained 1.8% to 55 cents after it said it appointed investment banker Scott Malcolm to its board as an independent director.

 

NZ Refining fell 3.1% to $2.81, following Thursday's 4% decline when the country's sole refining operation downgraded its earnings forecast.

 

Consumer prices in New Zealand declined unexpectedly in the December quarter, due to a fall in vegetable prices, the latest figures from Statistics New Zealand showed Thursday.

 

The consumer price index fell 0.3% quarter-on-quarter during the period, while economists expected the index to rise 0.4%, maintaining a steady pace of increase from the September quarter.

 

Vegetable prices dropped 25% in the December quarter, causing a 2.2% fall in overall food prices.

 

"The larger-than-usual fall for vegetables reflects a supply shortage in the three months to September," Statistics New Zealand prices manager Chris Pike said. If vegetable prices had remained constant in the December 2011 quarter, the CPI would have risen 0.1%, Pike said.

 

Prices for telecommunication services, furniture, kitchenware, and appliances were also lower than the September quarter. However, these falls were partly countered by rise in international air fares and petrol.

 

In the year to the December quarter, the CPI rose 1.8%. This was weaker than the 2.6% rise expected by economists and a 4.6% increase in the year to the September quarter. Unlike the previous four quarters, the latest annual increase does not include most of the effects of the Goods and Services Tax increase of October 2010, the statistical office said.

 

On an annual basis, petrol prices increased 11%. Costs of cigarettes and tobacco rose 9.4%, while housing rentals increased 2%.

 

Residential property sales in New Zealand increased from last year in December, data from a survey by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) showed Wednesday.

 

Sales of housing properties increased 20.1% year-on-year to 5,316 in December. The latest figure was the biggest for the month of December since 2007. Month-on-month, overall house sales increased a seasonally adjusted 5.6% in December.

 

The national median house price moved up 0.9% annually to around NZ$355,000 in December. However, house prices decreased 3.4% on a monthly basis. Meanwhile, the national median days to sell remained steady 35 days during the month.

 

At the same time, the housing price index increased 3.1% on an annual basis in December, while on a monthly basis the index decreased 0.1%, the survey showed.

 

New Zealand business activity moderated in the December quarter, the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) showed Tuesday.

 

Firms' trading activity eased to -4% from +1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is consistent with annual economic growth of around 1.6%, the institute said.       

Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesSilver and orange juice surged 5% Friday on an otherwise dull day in the commodities complex, while copper and oil slid as traders awaited a Greek debt deal and absorbed disappointing data from China.

 

Frozen concentrated orange juice jumped by the 10-cent daily limit, ending within sight of a record on speculation that the USDA was set to block imports from Brazil due to the presence of an illegal fungicide.

 

The FDA said it would clear more OJ imports from 5 countries after testing for carbendazim, but it made no mention of Brazil and said 26 out of the 45 samples it had taken were 'pending analysis and/or are under compliance review.'

This fueled talk that those samples were from Brazil, which accounts for nearly half of all US imports.

 

All the precious metals rose this week. The biggest gainer was silver which ended Friday's session 7.6% higher than it began the week. The next biggest gainer was palladium which ended Friday's session 6.3% higher than it started the week. Platinum climbed 2.6% in the last five days and gold was up two%.

Today marks the third week in a row that gold and the other precious metals have risen. Since the start of the year just three weeks ago gold is up more than six%.

 

Copper traders are the least bearish in a month as the metal has its best start to a year since 2009 and stockpiles tracked by the world's biggest metals exchange were poised to slump to the lowest in 2 1/2 years.

 

Fourteen of 30 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the metal to decline next week, the lowest proportion since Dec. 23. Three were neutral. Prices reached a four-month high of $8,428.50 a metric ton today, taking this year's advance to 11%. Inventories (LSCA) tracked by the London Metal Exchange are already the smallest since December 2010 and existing orders to withdraw metal may reduce that to the lowest since July 2009.

 

China, which consumes 40% of the world's copper, expanded 8.9% in the fourth quarter, the slowest pace in 10 quarters. That increased speculation the government will stimulate lending to shore up the economy. While global growth is slowing, demand is still exceeding supply from mines. The shortages will reach 363,000 tons this year, enough to meet more than a month of European demand, Barclays Capital estimates.

 

Copper is rebounding from a 21% plunge in 2011, the first decline since 2008. Its rally this year beat the 1.3% gain in the Standard & Poor's GSCI Index (MXWD) of 24 commodities and the 4.6% advance in the MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) of equities. Treasuries are down 0.3%, a Bank of America Corp. index shows. Copper fell 1.6% Friday to $8,230.25 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, bringing this year's gain to 8.3%, the best start to a year since 2009.

 

China's fourth-quarter growth, announced by the national statistics bureau Tuesday, exceeded the 8.7% anticipated by economists.

 

Stockpiles monitored by the LME slid 27% since October to 348,750 tons, with Asian inventories plunging 82% in the period. Combined stockpiles tracked by bourses in London, New York and Shanghai tumbled 16% over the same period.

 

The metal's 14-day relative-strength index Thursday rose above 70, a level that indicates to some analysts who study technical charts that a drop in prices may be imminent.

 

Cocoa futures eased on Friday as lower-than-expected North American grindings growth fuelled demand concerns.

Arabica coffee and raw sugar and were steady, as investors eyed news on the European debt crisis including Greece's debt talks, aimed at helping the country avoid a debt default.

 

Cocoa futures on ICE eased with March down $14 or 0.6% at $2,306 a tonne, as the disappointing grind data weighed.

 

North American cocoa grindings in the fourth quarter of 2011 rose by 1.49% from the fourth quarter in 2010, to 118,926 tonnes, coming in below expectations as the number of participating plants went down.  

 

Arabica coffee prices were steady as the market was underpinned by a lack of high quality beans with key producer Colombia between crops and expected to see annual production remain below average levels.

Benchmark March arabica coffee futures on ICE were up 0.8 cent or 0.4% at $2.275 per lb.

 

Dealers said that Colombia's main crop, which was harvested from September 2011, was below expectations as a tree renovation programme and unfavourable weather hit output.

 

Oil fell to a one-month low as Chinese manufacturing contracted and negotiations to resolve Greece's debt crisis entered a third day, fanning concern that Europe's economy will slow.

 

The preliminary January reading of a Chinese purchasing managers' index showed that manufacturing declined for a third month. The Euro fell against the Dollar as talks in Athens on debt swaps resumed.

 

Oil futures for February delivery dropped 1.9% to $98.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since Dec. 20.

 

Brent oil for March settlement fell 1.5% $109.86 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

 

Royal Dutch Shell sold North Sea Forties crude at a higher price than Thursday. China International United Petroleum & Chemical failed to buy Russian Urals blend.

 

Gasoline fell the most in a week after US demand slid to a 10-year low and Greek debt concerns mounted, spurring speculation that European fuel demand will wane.

 

On the Nymex, gasoline futures for February delivery fell 1.1% to $2.7844 a gallon, the biggest drop since 12 January.

 

Heating oil for February delivery declined 1.6% to $2.9884 a gallon.

Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 The Euro fell from weekly highs reached against the Dollar and the Yen on Friday as investors took profits ahead of any sign from Greece that an agreement had been reached on restructuring the nation's debt.

 

Currency analysts said that the outcome of the private sector involvement talks in Greece this week would be crucial in determining the path of the Euro in the short term. But investment banks said that most of their clients believed the Euro would move lower against the Dollar in the coming months whether a deal was struck in Greece or not.

 

The single currency gave up some of its gains against the Yen after reaching its weakest level in 11 years against the Japanese currency earlier in the week, falling 0.4% to Y99.60. The Euro fell 0.2% against the Dollar to $1.2935.

 

Currency analysts attributed some of the moves higher in the Euro against the Dollar in recent days to investors covering existing short positions on the single currency.

 

Sterling rose against the Dollar, with some traders speculating that news that a Chinese sovereign wealth fund was buying a stake in Thames Water could be positive for the pound - though analysts at Citi said it was still not clear what currency the purchase would be funded with.

 

The pound was 0.5% higher against the Dollar at $1.5570 and 0.5% higher against the Euro at €1.2009.

Emerging market currencies gave up some of their gains amid the general risk aversion on Friday but were broadly higher over the week against the US Dollar.

 

The Turkish Lira was down 0.3% against the Dollar to TL1.8296, but gained nearly 2% over the week. The Mexican Peso fell 0.1% to 13.2335 Pesos against the Dollar but rose nearly 3% over the week. The Brazilian Real rose 0.1% to R1.7637, a 1.2% gain over the week.

 

Analysts at Credit Suisse said they were revising up predictions for emerging market currencies for the year, though they warned that short-term concerns over the Eurozone could lead the Dollar and the Yen to outperform in the weeks ahead.

 

Asian currencies had a third weekly gain, led by India's Rupee and South Korea's Won, as signs of a global economic recovery and falling European borrowing costs boosted demand for emerging-market assets.

 

The Won gained for a fourth day, its longest run of appreciation in seven weeks. Data on 18 January showed South Korea's department store sales increased 11%, the most in eight months.

 

The Ringgit climbed for a third week and the Rupiah jumped 1.5% this week to 8,945 per Dollar as Indonesia attained an investment-grade credit rating from Moody's Investors Service on Jan. 18.

 

Finally, as always I'll close out currencies with the RMB. China's RMB was lower against the US Dollar late Friday, the last session before the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday, as importers bought Dollars for trade settlements.

 

On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar was at CNY6.3390 around 0830 GMT, up from CNY6.3167 late Thursday. It traded between CNY6.3105 and CNY6.3402.

 

The People's Bank of China fixed the Dollar/RMB central parity rate at 6.3138, down from Thursday's 6.3173, after the Euro hit a two-week high following successful European bond auctions.

 

However, Dollar-buying by importers to meet month-end settlement deadlines lifted the US currency for a second straight session, traders said.

 

The RMB has fallen 0.7% so far this year, but has gained 7.7% since June 2010, when China unpegged its currency from the Dollar. It's down 0.5% on the week.         

China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsChina's economy expanded 8.9% in the fourth quarter of last year, extending a slowdown that began at the start of 2011 and is expected to continue into 2012.
  

"In terms of the domestic and international situation, 2012 will be a year of complexity and challenges so we should be fully prepared," said Ma Jiantang, spokesman for China's National Bureau of Statistics, as he unveiled the latest figures for the world's second-largest economy.

 

The fourth quarter figure represents a slight drop from the 9.1% growth rate in the third quarter, but came in higher than median analyst forecasts of 8.7%.

 

The gradual slowdown over the course of 2011 has led most analysts to conclude that Beijing has successfully engineered a "soft landing" for the economy, as price increases have fallen back from a peak of 6.5% in July to 4.1% in December.

 

But although the growth figure for the fourth quarter was stronger than most analysts expected, the monthly breakdown of the data left little doubt that the Chinese economy is continuing to slow.

 

Investment, the main engine of the economy, slipped from 25% year on year in October to 18.5% in December, while export growth to Europe and the US is falling.

 

In December, China's imports slowed more than expected. Since much of the country's imports are reprocessed and turned into finished goods for export this has been seen as a sign of falling future exports.

 

Mr Ma said on Tuesday that China would face a "gloomy, highly complicated and severe international environment", mainly due to "sluggishness in the main developed economies".

 

The other key concern for China's economy is the domestic real estate market, which has been one of the main drivers of growth for the last decade.

 

Many analysts are predicting a sharper slowdown in the coming months.

 

"We expect GDP growth to slow more markedly in the first quarter due to the sharp investment slowdown under way," economists at Citi said in a note.

 

JPMorgan expects economic growth to slow to 7.6% from a year earlier in the first quarter of 2012, driven down in part by declining exports.

 

But a deceleration has long been expected - the question has been whether it will be gradual or a hard landing.

 

************************************

 

China and the United Arab Emirates signed a multibillion-Dollar currency swap deal in the latest indication of the growing political and economic links between Beijing and countries in the oil-rich Gulf region.

 

The swap valued at RMB35bn ($5.5bn), the latest in a string of currency deals China has agreed with foreign nations, is effective for three years and will allow the central banks to draw on the local currency facility to ease bilateral trading.

 

The announcement, which came as the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited the UAE for the first time as part of a three country-tour of Gulf oil states, acts as both a political statement to bolster China's ties to the UAE, and a pragmatic measure to increase business with the Gulf's regional trade hub.

 

China has set up currency swap agreements with more than ten countries, though few have been drawn down, prompting some analysts to suggest that they are more politically-motivated statements than measures to significantly boost trade.

 

Boosting Sino-Emirati relations comes at a time when major international business deals are developing in the UAE and oil prices are crossing $100 a barrel.

 

Abu Dhabi, holder of 7% of the world's proven oil reserves, plans to tender its precious oil concessions due to expire in 2014. Analysts have said that eastern companies are likely to challenge western companies such as Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil, BP and Total, who currently hold the contracts.

 

Despite the economic downturn, bilateral trade between China and the UAE improved last year. Trade in the first 11 months of the year grew to $32bn, a 38% increase compared to the first 11 months of last year, according to official statistics.

 

China has over the past three years started to promote the use of the RMB in international trade, seeking to reduce its reliance on the US Dollar. However, so far, transactions in Chinese currency have been limited, partly because China retains strict limits on flows of the currency across its borders.

 

The UAE may be a particularly tough market in which to shift trading away from Dollars, considering the local currency, like most others in the Gulf, is pegged to the greenback. The Abu Dhabi-based central bank said in November that it had returned to buying Dollars after replacing their reserves with bonds including Japanese government debt.

 

************************************

 

A Chinese sovereign wealth fund is poised to buy a stake in the water network that serves London, in what would be the fund's first acquisition in the UK following investment talks with British politicians.

 

The deal follows a visit to China this week by UK chancellor George Osborne, who has been urging Chinese investors to inject money into British infrastructure projects. Beijing has been seeking more lucrative returns than those available from low-yielding government bonds.

 

The acquisition of up to 10% of the holding company that owns Thames Water is close to being agreed by China Investment Corporation, the country's $410bn sovereign wealth fund, according to one person familiar with the situation. The Chinese investment was confirmed by a senior government official.

 

In December Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, acquired about 9.9% of Thames Water from a consortium of investors led by Australian investment bank Macquarie.

 

The bank declined at the time to reveal terms of the sale of the stake in Kemble Water, which is the holding company for the UK utility.

 

Mr Osborne this week held "very serious meetings of substance" during a short visit to Beijing, including with Lou Jiwei, chairman of CIC, as well as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world's biggest bank by market capitalisation.

 

Mr Lou wrote in the Financial Times last November that he saw a "win-win" situation where Chinese funds would help to update the west's infrastructure - starting with Britain - on the grounds that such schemes offered solid returns.

 

He praised Britain as "one of the most open economies in the world" with a "sound legal system". In his article, Mr Lou suggested Chinese companies and investors wanted to own and operate infrastructure in the west as well as help build it.

 

Thames Water, which provides sewerage services to 14m customers and water to 8.8m in London and the Thames Valley, was sold for an enterprise value of £8bn by German utility group RWE in 2006, which included £4.8bn in cash and £3.2bn in debt.

 

The water holding company is owned by a consortium of investors, the largest of which are funds managed by Macquarie. The Australian bank also manages investment of the utility on behalf of other shareholders.

 

The Macquarie-led consortium, which beat three other serious bidders in the 2006 auction including one led by the Qatar Investment Authority, said it remained committed to managing Thames Water as its majority owner.

 

It is the largest of the 10 water and sewerage companies in England and Wales by both regulatory capital value and number of customers served.

 

The latest investment in Thames Water comes halfway through the second year of a five-year funding settlement for water companies in England and Wales with the industry watchdog Ofwat.

 

It also follows the publication of a government white paper, which has been generally interpreted as seeking to protect the attraction of the industry as a safe haven for equity and debt investors.

 

************************************

 

A Chinese rating agency has warned that the European debt crisis could spiral into a currency crisis this year as foreign confidence in the Euro collapses.

 

Dagong Global Credit Rating, which has made headlines before in twice downgrading the US sovereign rating, said in its annual outlook that the US would remain a safe haven this year while Europe would court disaster.

 

Dagong is a private agency that does not speak for the Chinese government. Beijing has consistently voiced public support for the Euro and expressed confidence in Europe's ability to fix its debt woes.

 

But the warning chimes with growing unease in private among Chinese officials about the prospects for the single currency.

 

Dagong said that the European Stability Mechanism and other bail-out funds for heavily indebted nations were not big enough, leaving a large expansion of credit by the European Central Bank as the "ultimate solution". It added that the ECB was already headed down this path, inflating assets in the Eurozone by 37% from a year earlier.

While such ECB action might prevent the debt crisis from worsening, it would leave the Euro vulnerable, Dagong said.

 

"The Euro's credibility will decline and it will be difficult to avoid a sell-off of the currency caused by a collapse of foreign confidence," the report said. "This signifies that the overall direction in 2012 will be for the European debt crisis to develop into a crisis of the Euro currency."

 

However, Michel Barnier, the European Union internal markets commissioner, said he had been reassured on China's position as he visited Beijing this week to meet regulators.

 

"All of the messages that I received ... were ones of great vigilance about what is happening in Europe, but also confidence in Europe and the Eurozone," he told the Financial Times. "I explained that this confidence is justified by our unbreakable determination to consolidate the Eurozone."

 

In an indication of their concerns, top Chinese leaders recently summoned the head of a global audit firm to Beijing to get an independent assessment of Europe's debt woes, according to sources familiar with the matter.

 

However, Chinese companies have at the same time also become more active in buying European assets. The number of Chinese mergers and acquisitions in Europe last year climbed to 44 from 25 in 2010, according to a report recently published by PwC.

Dagong is a leader in the group of Chinese rating agencies that Beijing has been pushing to develop as alternatives to the dominant international agencies such as S&P and Moody's.

 

However, Dagong's professionalism has also been questioned by some Chinese investors. It came under fire last year when it gave the debt-riddled, lossmaking railway ministry a higher credit rating than the central government itself.

Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 Stock markets have had a spring in their step recently - the Euro zone crisis notwithstanding, European stocks and the S&P 500 are both up about 4% so far this month.

 

But this has not been a zero sum game across the equity/fixed income divide given Bunds have managed to hold their ground during that time. That caused a marked breakdown in the firmly negative correlation that existed until late October/November between stocks and Bunds, the Euro zone safe haven of choice.

 

Under crisis conditions, of the sort that have prevailed in the Euro zone in the past couple of years, the negative relationship between stocks and Bunds has usually re-asserted itself before long. The question is, which asset class will take the strain when that happens this time around?

 

Greece and its private sector creditors are working against the clock to secure a mutually acceptable debt restructuring deal that would allow the next installment of bailout money to be disbursed in time for hefty March redemptions.

 

The devil is in the details and even under the most optimistic scenario, the process is still fraught with risks as far as investors are concerned (not least given the possibility of legal challenges to any deal).

 

While ISDA's verdict on whether CDS will be triggered will depend on the nature of the deal, the main credit rating agencies have said losses incurred by private bondholders - whether imposed or "voluntary" - would trigger a selective or restricted default rating.

 

Investors are concerned about the precedent this could set for other Southern European countries and such worries have shown up most markedly in Portuguese bond and credit default swap markets.

 

Portugal, which was downgraded to junk status by S&P, is also struggling with a debt mountain and has seen its borrowing costs soar to levels that will delay its return to primary bond markets. That guarantees a difficult backdrop for a European finance ministers' meeting at the beginning of the coming week.

 

Euro zone countries have held successful debt auctions despite the persistent reasons for concern about the Euro zone crisis and S&P's (expected) mass ratings downgrade. Debt management offices of these issuers have so far tended to offer shorter-dated paper and the extent to which banks flush with cheap three-year ECB money are willing to take up longer-dated bonds has yet to be tested.

 

While there will be more of a lull in peripheral bond issuance in the coming week, Germany's 30-year Bund auction on Wednesday will show just how desperate investors are to preserve capital - the coupon on the 30-year Bund is 3.25%, which is comparable to the yield on French 10-years bonds in the secondary market.

 

Barring a full blown Greek credit event, investors will make time for post-FOMC comments on January 25 to see whether the US central bank is inclined to undertake further quantitative easing.

 

Stock markets are pushing past five-month highs on both sides of the Atlantic, with Germany's DAX leading the way by gaining twice as much as the broader FTSEurofirst 300 and outpacing the rise in US equity markets.

 

Some analysts say the bright start to the year is more a reflection of fund managers' welcoming in new money than a function of any real change in the Euro zone crisis/global economy backdrop.

 

The attraction for those brave enough to take a punt is clear, with European equity risk premia close to record levels.

 

But any significant extension of the move higher in European equity markets is likely to depend on progress in resolving some thorny short-term problems, such as mentioned, Greece.

 

In the absence of unexpected upsets on this front, investors will scan the corporate fundamentals of internationally focused firms including Anglo American, Novartis, Nokia and ST Micro to determine the extent to which they have been insulated from the regional malaise.

 

The Euro/Yen's slide to 11-year lows is prompting traders to weigh the chances of Japanese intervention on a cross that isn't usually the focus of such official action.

 

If comments by ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny are anything to go by, Euro zone officials are a long way from viewing moves in Euro/Yen as a problem. One-month Euro/Yen volatilities have been broadly steady in recent weeks and are well below the highs in the region of 20% seen in September - hardly evidence of the disorderly market conditions that are usually used to justify intervention and a sign that sharp spikes in Euro/Yen are not expected by the FX options market.

 

All things considered, another busy week ahead although China is closed throughout the week for the Chinese New Year holidays.

 

With that in mind, I'll close this week's Newsletter by wishing you all a Happy Chinese New Year, Year of the Dragon, Gong Xi Fa Cai.  

As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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