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Global Weekly Markets Review - 24 November 2007
Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen,
This week saw the US Dollar cross the $1.49 line against the Euro, heading for $1.50 after the US markets closed for Thanksgiving. It then bounced after the London market had opened on Friday. I do expect a small bounce in the US Dollar over the next week, but not for long as a secondary phase of the crisis comes into play.
What crisis, you may well ask? It is the sub-prime crisis, credit crunch crisis, US Dollar crisis as it spreads into the global economy - as well as inside the good old US of A of course.
The first phase is the onset of the crisis, together with smoothing words to calm markets, but to no avail. The second phase is when there is public recognition that there is a crisis, followed by all involved coming together to give the impression that the crisis is being resolved. This phase precedes watching the system begin to actually break down despite the superficial efforts of global monetary authorities to the contrary.
Are we there yet? The global credit crisis hit Asia particularly like a tsunami hits the shore there for the first time this week, triggering a massive run for cover as investors fled their holdings of dubious fixed interest investments.
So what did we see this week in Asia?
Yields on three-month deposits in China and Korea plummeted almost 1% over this week, driven by hasty withdrawals from money market funds and credit derivatives. The crisis has flowed from the States and is beginning to paralyze the whole global economy.
Korean and Chinese three-month yields have fallen from 4% to 1% in a matter of days. Asian investors appear to be opting for deposit accounts with government guarantees. Are investors now under the belief that Asian banks have yet to announce horrendous losses from the US mortgage disaster?
The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell 4.15%, while Tokyo's Nikkei tumbled to the lowest level in a year and a half.
This sudden “flight from risk” has led to a sudden unwinding of the $1,200 billion Yen "carry trade" as hedge funds and Japanese investors close risky positions. The Yen has roared back from Yen122 to Yen107.90 against the Dollar since early October, crushing the gains of those slowest to move out of these positions.
And then what happened to this 'financial tsunami' - it moved to Europe where .......
The iTraxx index measuring default insurance on bank and insurance bonds hit an all-time high of 63.5. Bund-Swap-Spreads were going through the roof there. Spreads on low-grade European bonds had been jumping 10 basis points a day, for the last week.
Suddenly, in a startling move, the European Covered Bond Council said it was suspending trading of mortgage-linked bonds in the inter-bank-market owing to the "undue over-acceleration in the widening of spreads."
Abbey National today cancelled its sale of covered bonds, the third company to withdraw an issue this week.
Then there was an alarming spike in the "Ted spread" between commercial Libor and US Treasury bills, now near 150 basis points. The London Interbank Offered Rate [Libor]] is now at a premium to T-bills not seen since the dark days of 1987.
And we are told to expect problems from this crisis could last for two more years as the real tragedy for the sub-prime mortgage holders. But now it is a US Dollar/banking credibility problem threatening to engulf the entire global economy.
Authorities overseeing the crisis are blithely raising their hands saying markets must find their own level. This is complete inaction, but is it a result of their powerlessness in the face of these massive waves of capital?
The finger pointing at the suppressed RMB is ducking the issue. The statement that the US Dollar is not a problem of the US is confirmation that the US will not do anything about its weakness and why should the Fed'? It is to their advantage to see a weaker US Dollar. I don't expect the Fed' to do anything about the weak Dollar now or in the future. From the perspective of the US, the US Dollar is bedrock, so the problem lies with those dealing with the US of A. Not only is it in the interests of the US to see a weak Dollar, there is little that they can could do to rectify the Dollar's performance, until foreign investors take action against it. But they are in a strong position to do so.
So the ball is in a foreign court. Until China particularly and Asia are far less dependent on the US it is not in their interest to see a Dollar collapse or even the buying power of the Dollar diminish. It is however in their interests to use the Dollar to buy up all the assets they can across the globe until they are spent. That would see a major rise in the power of China in the global economy. That is already well on the way and continuing at a frantic pace.
There is little incentive to sell the Dollars to lower their presence in national reserves, because this would lower the value of the remaining Dollars in the reserves. Consequently we all have to live with a falling Dollar, consequential rising global inflation, picking up speed as the velocity of the fall of the Dollar is diminished through market intervention, breeding more inflation still. The result has to be paper currencies across the world having to accept that to keep their economies healthy they must accept inflation, or see their international competitiveness reduce their own national growth.
In such a climate there is absolutely nothing to stop the price of gold in all currencies from trending higher and higher and higher still.
The trigger to this rise is the awful loss of confidence in the banking system and the investments they have engineered. It is called “risk aversion”, but it is more serious than that. Harsh lessons are being learned from bitter experiences that have shocked even the most experienced of investors. Will the crisis go away? Not for quite some time to come it is sure. In fact, it could worsen as the structures on which confidence stands stumble under the doubts and fears.
Then it becomes simply a matter of prudence and wisdom for investors of all types in all parts of the globe to protect themselves against this turmoil in something that is not an obligation, a promise, something not dependent on the performance of people or any other hope. Where can they go? They need something they can know will not evaporate as quickly as a changing exchange rate, something they can grip in their hands, something solid that has proved itself in just these sort of times - gold.
With the global market so integrated, so informed, so fast and now so volatile, expect this relatively small market to get a great deal of attention to make it evolve into something totally different to what we see at the moment!
So my tip for the week, as it has been most of this year - Gold.
Let's take a look at the numbers this week then:
With shoppers hitting the stores after Thanksgiving on Friday, beginning the most important shopping period of the year, US retailers were the focus of worries about a lacklustre holiday season. The Federal Reserve added to the prevailing malaise this week after it gave a downbeat assessment of prospects for US economic growth. “We’ve certainly upped the odds of a recession,” Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at The Hartford, said. The S&P 500 rose 1,7% to 1440.70 on Friday, closing the week on a high note as traders went bargain hunting after recent sharp falls. However the index was down 1.2% for the week, a trading period truncated by the Thanksgiving holiday and a half-day session on Friday. The S&P 500 has remained below its 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive sessions, a bearish indicator, longer than during the initial summer credit squeeze. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.5% on the week at 12,980.88, briefly falling below its mid-August trough before traders bought into weakness. The Nasdaq Composite was down 1.5% on the week at 2,596.60. The index has fallen 9.2% from its 52-week high, set on October 31, as technology stocks have struggled to find a footing. Transport stocks, a traditional bellwether of economic sentiment, fared particularly poorly, with crude oil prices rising above $99 a barrel this week. The Dow transport index, down 2.5% at 4,451.07, neared a key bearish indicator, a 20% fall from its high for the year. Among the worst performing stocks this week were Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-sponsored enterprises that provide liquidity to US mortgage markets by buying, securitising and guaranteeing home loans. The declining value of its mortgage-related securities contributed to a $2bn loss at Freddie Mac this week, with the shares falling 35% to $26.47. Freddie warned it will need to raise capital, possibly by slashing its dividend in half, in order to meet regulatory requirements. Fannie Mae, a rival mortgage agency, was down 20.9% to $32.20, amid continuing worries about the way it accounts for loan losses. Concerns that these agencies will be constrained in their ability to provide liquidity to the broader mortgage market hit a range of financial stocks this week. Countrywide Financial sank 20.1% on the week to $9.65 after analysts said the company could be affected if GSEs stopped buying its mortgages in the secondary market. However, the company said rumours that it would seek baNKruptcy protection were “absolutely false”. Meanwhile the big banks once again suffered a torrid week, precipitated by a Goldman Sachs analyst note that forecast another $48bn in writedowns by the end of 2008. Citigroup shed 6.8% to $31.70 after the note said Citi could take $22bn in writedowns linked to its portfolio of collateralised debt obligations, $11bn this quarter, and $11bn next year. Homebuilder stocks were also punished amid a deepening malaise in the US real estate market. The S&P homebuilder index was down 14.3% this week at 318.07, declining for six consecutive days before buyers sparked a rebound on Friday. Shares in Pulte Homes shed 25% of their value this week at $9.63. With house prices plummeting, nervous investors are keeping a careful eye on retail sales amid fears that belt-tightening consumers may deliver a poor shopping holiday season. Office Depot fell 8.6% to $17.50 this week after quarterly earnings fell 9% while Lowe’s, the home improvement chain, was down 11% at $22.27 during the period after it cut its full-year outlook. Gap declined 6% to $18.89 after same-store sales fell 5%. However, the retail picture was not universally bleak. Nordstrom rose 9.9% to $35.72 on the week, after the department store’s quarterly earnings beat expectations. Electronics retailer Circuit City soared 19.5% to $6.51 on Friday, 5.9% higher for the week. Elsewhere, General Motors was the Dow’s biggest faller this week, down 7.2% at $27.16. |
There are growing fears that at least one European institution could go out of business due to the ongoing fallout from losses in the US subprime mortgage and structured finance markets. The iTraxx Senior Financial index – which represents the cost of insuring the senior debt of 25 European financial companies against default – hit 64 basis points in afternoon trade, the highest level since the index began three years ago. This means it now costs €64,000 ($95,000) annually to protect €10m worth of senior financial debt against default over five years, €4,000 more than when the index last peaked at the height of the credit crunch in August. The pressure on banks globally has intensified as liquidity in the interbank money market has tightened. For example, three-month US Dollar Libor, the rate at which banks lend to each other, hit 5.02% on Wednesday. Such pressure led the UK mortgage lender Paragon to warn investors this week that it might have to issue shares to raise capital early next year. But on to the markets themselves for the week and starting with Germany where in Frankfurt German shares closed higher as Deutsche Postbank charged to the front of DAX gainers on renewed M&A speculation, while Wall Street, open only for a half-day, began today's session in positive territory. The DAX was up 46.86 points or 0.62% at 7,608.96. The MDAX added 200.32 points or 2.2% to 9,286.8, while the TecDAX gained 7.55 points or 0.86% to 881.24. DAX futures were up 46.00 points or 0.61% to 7,641.00, while bund futures were 0.10 or 0.09% lower at 115.21. The German market is largely driven at present by investors looking for buying opportunities, which is in turn supporting the DAX, although volumes are low. Leading blue chips higher, Deutsche Postbank added 2.34 Eur or 4.14% to 58.86 as dealers noted increased speculation about a sale of the bank on renewed statements of interest from rivals. Its shares were added to Merrill Lynch's 'most preferred banking list'. Deutsche Post was 0.80 Eur or 3.71% higher at 22.35. MAN rose 4.00 Eur or 3.88% to 106.99, correcting from yesterday's losses. Siemens added 1.84 Eur or 1.91% to 98.23 after WestLB raised its stance on the electronics giant to 'buy' from 'add' and lifted its price target to 116 Eur per share from 114, largely on valuation grounds, after the stock's underperformance during the last 10 days. At the other end of the index, Henkel -- the session's worst performer -- was 0.55 Eur or 1.48% weaker at 36.55 on speculation the household goods manufacturer might be mulling a capital increase. RWE lost 1.02 Eur or 1.10% to 91.96 as takeover speculation petered out. Peer E.ON lost 1.51 Eur or 1.08% to 137.69, while Bayer retreated 0.63 Eur or 1.10% to 56.75. K&S was the worst performer on the MDAX, down 4.87 Eur or 4.10% at 113.97, after it issued its third profit warning in two months, blaming the impact of the weak US Dollar against the Euro and subsequent changes to its currency hedging strategy. At the other end, IKB surged 0.95 Eur or 10.97% to 9.61, making it the top gainer. GEA Group shares added 1.78 Eur or 8.51% to 22.70 on rumours a Kuwaiti investment group wants to raise its stake in the company to 25% from just under 7.8%. TecDAX-listed ADVA was up 0.25 Eur or 5.54% at 4.76 as the index's top gainer. In Brussels, Belgian shares also closed higher. At the close, the Bel 20 was up 88.73 points or 2.26% at 4,011.95. Heavyweight financials led the blue-chip index upwards. Belgo-French financial services group Dexia rose 0.83 Eur or 4.98% to 17.48, while peer Fortis was up 0.81 Eur or 4.98% to 17.06. KBC Group was up 1.97 Eur or 2.25% at 89.40. Imaging technology company Agfa-Gevaert rose 0.31 Eur or 4.68% to 6.94 as investors went bargain-hunting after recent share weakness. Elsewhere, chemicals and pharmaceuticals group Solvay was 3.02 Eur or 3.26% higher at 95.58, while healthcare group Omega Pharma was up 1.03 Eur or 2.36% at 44.64. National telecoms group Belgacom was 0.33 Eur or 0.96% higher at 34.54. The group will cut the period for opening up the VDSL (Very High Speed Digital Subscriber Line) market to competition to 18 months from three years previously, following submissions made by Flemish-based VRM, reported De Tijd, citing the Flemish regulator. Utility Suez inched up 0.29 Eur or 0.63% to 46.00, while brewer InBev edged up 0.05 Eur or 0.09% to 58.12. Outside the Bel 20, shipping group Euronav soared 1.62 Eur or 9.96% to 12.70, boosted by climbing rates for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) tankers. A trader said: "Tanker rates are going through the roof," adding that rates have been increasing in recent days. The trader said shares of other companies in the sector are also supported. Projector and display maker Barco rose 2.46 Eur or 5.29% to 48.94 after it sold its production site at Sevenslaan in Kortrijk to Gent-based brownfield developer PSR for 1.8 million Eur. Media group Roularta inched up 0.21 Eur or 0.41% to 50.89. ING lowered its target price to 58.00 Eur from 65.00 Eur, keeping its 'hold' rating, following third-quarter results. In France , Paris Share prices ended sharply higher, with the main indices adding around 2%, as morning gains driven by financials were reinforced by a rebound on Wall Street following the Thanksgiving holiday. The CAC-40 index finished up 105.07 points or 1.94% at 5,521.17. Among CAC-40 stocks, 37 closed higher and three closed lower. On the Matif, December CAC-40 futures were trading at 5,542.5. On the broader indices, the SBF-80 index closed up 160.60 or 2.64% at 6,242.81 and the SBF-120 ended 79.60 or 2.03% higher at 3,993.30. In Paris, the US rebound pushed shares higher after moderate morning gains. Friday's sharp rise allowed the CAC-40 to climb back up almost level with last Friday's close of 5,523.63. Financial stocks led the gainers today as investors took heart from yesterday's encouraging news on Natixis' US unit CIFG and a positive report today on the French banking sector from ratings agency Moody's. The agency said the outlook for French banks remains stable, reflecting their relatively ample capitalisation and diversified business models, as well as the supportive and efficient regulatory environment. Natixis extended yesterday's gains, climbing 0.53 Eur or 4.05% to 13.62. The corporate bank also announced it will bring forward its third-quarter results statement to Sunday, as opposed to its scheduled date of Nov 29, saying it wants "to give investors the information as soon as possible." Among other banks, Franco-Belgian bank Dexia climbed 0.86 or 5.16% to 17.53, BNP Paribas added 3.48 or 5.08% to 71.93, Credit Agricole rose 1.05 or 5.00% to 22.05, and Societe Generale was up 3.85 or 4.10 at 97.75. Insurers were also in focus following a report that Axa is mulling a bid for France's number one life insurance company, CNP Assurances. Shares in CNP surged 8.01 or 11.00% to 80.85, while Axa was up 1.09 or 4.30% at 26.42. Cheuvreux raised its stance on CNP to 'country selected' from 'outperform' on the back of the rumour, saying the insurer's "value could be revealed soon." But Banque Postale, Caisse d'Epargne and Caisse des Depots, who together hold over 70% of CNP, subsequently issued separate statements denying any intention of selling their shares in the insurance company. Another major gainer was Iliad, owner of internet service provider Free, which jumped 5.33 or 8.37% to 69.00, amid positive sentiment on the group's potential entry into the mobile telecoms market. Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to 'overweight' from 'equal-weight', saying the potential risk of the group's mobile telecoms ambitions has been overestimated. "The market is now fully aware that Iliad could obtain France's last 3G licence and valuation and risk-reward are sufficiently compelling to take a long-term positive view," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note. In contrast, France Telecom, owner of mobile operator Orange, saw further profit-taking, dropping 0.09 or 0.35% to 25.65. The entry of a fourth mobile operator into the market is widely perceived as a competitive threat to the existing players, France Telecom, Bouygues, which owns Bouygues Telecom, and Vivendi, owner of SFr. Elsewhere among the risers, auto stocks joined in the rally after seeing profit-taking in recent sessions along with other cyclicals. Michelin added 2.76 or 3.67% to 78.00, Renault rose 3.06 or 3.36% to 94.00, while Peugeot climbed 1.42 or 2.79% to 52.37. Alstom continuing yesterday's recovery, rising 6.89 or 4.90% to 147.36. The share is in focus at the moment amid speculation that president Nicolas Sarkozy's state visit to China might yield significant contracts for French industrial groups. French daily Le Figaro today reported that French companies, including Areva, Alcatel-Lucent and Alstom, might reap contracts worth a total of 10 billion Eur during the visit. Areva climbed 34.05 or 4.94% to 723.00. Shares in the state-owned nuclear engineering group were also supported by a report in Le Figaro this morning claiming that the 7 billion Eur deal Areva is expected to sign with China will be paid in Euros rather than Dollars. Also among midcaps, Rexel rose 0.60 or 4.84% to 13.00 after the electrical supplies companies announced agreement on a cash offer of 4.85 Eur per share for all Hagemeyer shares. Natixis Securities analysts reiterated an 'Accumulate' opinion on Rexel with a 17 Eur target, highlighting that Rexel has a firm commitment from banks to finance the whole offer and the takeover will enable Rexel to retain its world leadership. Elsewhere, caravan and camping equipment maker Trigano surged 2.63 or 8.88% to 32.26 after giving stronger-than-expected guidance for 2008. The company said it expects to reach 1 billion Eur in sales, supported by favourable market trends as well as increased production capacity and organisational changes. Seismic explorer CGG Veritas added 6.56 or 3.63% to 187.07. The company announced this afternoon that it is to sell its 12.7% stake in Norwegian peer Eastern Echo Holding to US-based Schlumberger, which is a carrying out a takeover offer for Eastern. Back on the CAC-40, defence and aerospace group EADS trailed the market, adding 0.11 or 0.52% to 21.41 after last night's statements from chief executive Tom Enders, who said the decline in the Dollar is "life-threatening" for the group and will cause "massive losses" at Airbus. In The Netherlands Shares in Amsterdam also closed broadly higher. The AEX closed up 7.54 points or 1.55% at 492.47, after opening at 484.72, touching an early low of 484.72 and a pre-close high of 493.15. Staffing issue Randstad led AEX gainers, up 4.79% to 30.64 Eur, while Vedior added 1.91% at 11.74. Midcapper USG People put on 3.87% to 16.38. Philips rose 4.71% to 28.44 Eur on news Dutch MPs have passed a bill doubling the limit on the amount of tax-free share buybacks, sparking positive sentiment towards shares in cash-rich Philips, market sources said. Ordina went up 6.44% to 11.24 and LogicaCMG rose 4.35% to 1.68, but fellow tech stock ASML fared less well, falling 0.97% to 22.55. Oce slid 1.21% to 11.39 and ASMI weakened 0.26% to 15.51. Among financials, Fortis rose 4.67% to 17.05, Aegon advanced 2.68% to 11.86 and ING was up 3.45% to 25.22. ArcelorMittal added 3.35% 48.44 at following reports the company is open to a listing in India but says current government norms are just not feasible at this time. Akzo Nobel rose 3.25% to 50.88 after the European Commission extended its inquiry deadline for the company's acquisition of Imperial Chemical Industries PLC to Dec 14 from Nov 30. Hagemeyer was up 1.96% to 4.68 Eur as it agreed to recommend a cash offer of 4.85 Eur per share from French peer Rexel. On the midcap, BAM rose 5.21% to 14.55 Eur and Boskalis Westminster put on 6.84% to 37.0 Eur, with Petercam attributing the gains to relief in the market following strong losses in the past few weeks. Local issue Fornix Biosciences soared 9.87% to 18.25 Eur after SNS upped the stock to 'buy' from 'accumulate' in anticipation of clinical study results regarding its Oralgen Grasses product. VastNed Retail climbed 0.87% to 66.25 after the company said it will not agree to a request from potential bidder IEF Capital for additional information about the Dutch property group's operations. VastNed Retail said information for all companies interested in VastNed Retail would be ready by Dec 14 but IEF Capital wants the information by Nov 26. Draka rose 7.22% to 22.14 ahead of its trading update, due on Monday. Analysts expect the company to reiterate its second-half guidance. Royal Dutch Shell remained the strongest decliner on the AEX, falling 1.64% to 27.65, as oil prices continued to fall from recent highs. Midcapper Fugro slid 1.12% to 51.89. Other decliners include Unilever, off 0.58% to 23.89; Heineken, down 0.74% to 42.98; and TomTom, weakening 0.73% to 59.43. On the midcap, Tele Atlas slipped 0.24% to 29.02. Local stock Antonov plunged 16.46% to 0.66 Eur after it said its co-operation deal with Geely would not go any further. In Zurich, Swiss shares ended the week sharply higher as bargain hunters moved in amidst a dearth of corporate news, while Wall Street gains added a further boost. At the close, the Swiss Market Index was up 144.72 points or 1.8% higher at 8,371.83, while the Swiss Performance Index was also 109.67 points or 1.6% higher at 6,792.41. The Euro weakened against the Swiss franc to 1.6342 SFr, while the Dollar gained to 1.1026. Banking stocks made a strong recovery, led by Julius Baer, which was at the top of the index, 4.20 SFr or 5.1% higher at 87.00. Meanwhile, UBS was up 1.64 SFr or 3.4% at 49.74 and Credit Suisse was 1.05 SFr or 1.7% higher at 62.95. Pharmaceuticals heavyweights also lifted the index. Novartis continued yesterday's rally, closing 2.00 SFr or 3.3% higher at 62.10. Rival Roche also advanced, up 0.80 SFr to 214.20. The drug firm was on track to meeting its targeted product approvals for this and next year, with half of its approval already secured for the year. Another major bluechip, Nestle, also lent weight, closing 5.00 SFr or 1.0% higher at 529. The insurance sector also closed the week on a positive note. Zurich Financial was 6.00 SFr or 2.0% higher at 307.75, while Swiss Life gained 5.25 SFr or 1.8% to 297.00. Baloise climbed 0.80 SFr to 105.70. Reinsurer Swiss Re was also up 1.20 SFr or 1.5% at 82.20. Swatch was the only stock in retreat, ending the week at the bottom of the chart, down 2.25 SFr to 299.00. Into Austria now where in Vienna Shares closed higher, led up by a recovery in financials but weighed by losses in utility Verbund on profit-taking. The ATX closed up 1.51% or 62.96 points at 4,241.79. The ATX Prime closed 1.44% or 28.36 points higher at 2,003.46 Austrian financials recouped some of the extensive losses made earlier this week as investors looked to snap up bargains. Erste Bank rose 2.57% to 45.44ur. Raiffeisen International was up 1.83% at 102.75 Eur after analysts at KBC upped their target price on the bank to 127 Eur from 124.60 and confirmed their 'buy' recommendation. Verbund, one of the decliners, fell 1.93% to 43.21 Eur on extended profit-taking after rising consistently on the back of high wholesale electricity prices over the past two months. Shares in A-TEC closed higher after closing lower 15 days in a row because of a myriad of problems surrounding the industrial company. Having traded in the 80.7594.30 Eur band, A-TEC was last dealt up 0.23% at 86.50 Eur. Travelling up on bargain-hunting after a sharp downturn this week, Wienerberger closed up 4.04% at 36.31 Eur. The bricks and roof tiles company said earlier it had acquired a small bolt-on hollow brick manufacturer for an undisclosed sum. Strabag recovered ground for the second day and closed 1.39% higher at 46.10 Eur thanks to an announcement yesterday afternoon that the company had won two substantial plant construction orders in Russia. Austrian Airlines added 7.18% to 5.67 Eur, while Mayr-Melnhof Karton closed up 1.43% at 73.55 Eur. Both gained for the second day on the bank of share repurchase programmes from Nov 27, which were announced yesterday, Intercell last dealt at 24.26 Eur, up 3.45% on the day after the vaccine company said it had received an 80 million payment from Novartis as part of the alliance signed in July. Wiener Staedtische climbed 3.01% to 46.56 Eur after analysts at Erste Bank raised the target price for the insurance company to 72 Eur from 70, and confirmed their 'buy' rating on the stock. Elsewhere on the ATX Prime, shares in distressed Meinl European Land (MEL) rose 0.34% to 8.83 Eur on bargain hunting. This morning, Vienna Stock Exchange said this morning it will terminate MEL's contract to trade on the index on Dec 21 and relegate it to the third market. Christ Water Technology and Semperit which both posted nine-month results this morning closed down 6.18% and 0.68% respectively at 11.99 Eur and 27.60 Eur. Into Scandinavia now and starting with Norway where Oslo's Share prices closed higher, led up by Norske Skog after the company's chief executive talked the price up, by Frontline on rising rates for oil transport, and also by Storebrand, dealers said. The OSEBX Benchmark index closed 9.30 points higher at 475.31, and the OSEAX All Share index rose 9.02 points to 554.04. Total turnover was 8.31 billion NKr. Norske Skog closed 3.45 NKr higher at 34.2 after the company's chief executive, Christian Rynning-Tonnesen, was quoted by newspaper Aftenposten as saying the paper-maker's share price has fallen too far. Shares in the firm have fallen more than 55% during the last three months on a combination of rising input prices and lower sales prices, which have together conspired to wipe out the benefits of Norske Skog's wide-ranging turnaround programme. Yara International rose 2.75 to 197.75. Frontline added 12 to 250.5 after spot rates from the Middle East, for the per-day charter rate of oil tankers, jumped overnight. The stock is benefiting from a jump in VLCC rates eastward from the Gulf, which doubled overnight to almost 100,000 usd per day. Petroleum Geo-Services rose 2 to 147.75 on hopes of further good news at the firm's capital markets day next week. Carnegie reiterated its 'neutral' recommendation on Petroleum Geo-Services ahead of the capital markets day. The "2008 guidance will be launched but a bullish mood is already expected," the broker said, noting 175 NKr price target leaves 20% upside. StatoilHydro was up 2.6 at 173.7, and Seadrill rose 2.25 to 114.25. Petrobank Energy and Resources fell 8 to 302 on news the company is to buy Peerless Energy in a deal worth 334 million usd. Deep Ocean fell 0.4 to 23.6 after the group's third-quarter pretax profits came in at 45.6 million NKr, down from a proforma figure last year of 59.0 million, after being hit by a combination of forex fluctuations and the docking of key vessels. Jinhui Shipping added 2.75 to 62.5. It is to acquire two Very Large Ore Carriers from China Shipbuilding & Offshore International for a total price of 245 million usd for delivery in 2011. Storebrand was up 5.5 at 62.1 after stronger-than-expected results from Danish peer TrygVesta's Norwegian operations, dealers said. DnB NOR rose 3.8 to 84.2. NEAS put on 2.4 to 28. The firm said it has won an advisory deal with Askerhus University Hospital worth 4-8 million NKr. Pronova BioPharma was down 0.2 at 24, having jumped yesterday on speculation it could be a takeover target. Grenland Group rose 2 to 30. It has been awarded a subsea engineering contract by FMC Technologies worth 70-75 million NKr. Delivery is scheduled for spring 2009. Norsk Hydro was up 2.2 at 72.2, Aker Kvaerner rose 0.75 to 165 and Aker Yards was 2.5 higher at 85.5. Elsewhere, Telenor rose 2.5 to 127.5, Tandberg was up 1 at 113.75 and Orkla added 1.3 to 97.6. In Sweden , Stockholm's Shares closed slightly higher on bargain hunting after recent declines, with defence group Saab performing strongly after a prestigious order win. The OMX Stockholm index closed up 0.69% at 341.32, while the OMX Stockholm 30 index closed up 0.22% at 1,055.93. Turnover was 18.26 billion SKr. The main sub-indices movers today were retailing, up 1.06%; materials, up 2.77%; and industrials, up 0.75%. The major movers within these indices were Hennes & Mauritz B, up 1.02% at 398, Lundin Mining, up 7.02% at 61, and Scania B, up 3.70% at 140. Ericsson B closed down 0.67% at 14.72. The Stockholm Stock Exchange has started an investigation to determine whether Ericsson broke market communication rules at the company's investor meeting last Tuesday, the newspaper Svenska Dagbladet reported. At the meeting, Ericsson released information that sparked an 11% decline in its share price. Securitas B closed up 2.75% at 84. Credit Suisse has upgraded the share to 'neutral' from 'underperform', according to dealers, and increased the target price to 83 SKr, from 81. In a note to clients, the broker said that while the third-quarter results were disappointing, with EBITA some 9% below its estimates, the core operations were not far off the mark. Unless fears of a European recession grow, the broker said it believes near-term downside is now limited. In other news, Securitas said it has entered into an agreement to acquire 90% of the shares in the Peruvian security services company Forza S.A, at an estimated enterprise value of 94 million SKr. Forza has annual sales of approximately 160 million SKr and is one of the four largest security services providers in Peru, and the company has approximately 3,200 employees. Saab B closed up 4.69% at 122.75. Saab said it has won an order worth 105 million aud (600 million SKr) to design and develop the Combat Management System for Australia's new Landing Helicopter Dock amphibious class of ships. Special features of the system will include helicopter control, watercraft control and close-in self defence against military and asymmetric threats, Saab said. Volvo B closed down 0.24% at 102.25. Volvo said deliveries of its trucks, which includes Volvo Trucks, Nissan Diesel, Mack and Renault Trucks, was 185,048 units in the Jan-Oct period, up 2% on the same time last year. Volvo's CEO Leif Johansson said he believes that truck sales in North America will rebound in 2008-2009. However he does not expect another dip from current levels, just a delay of the recovery, and said the European truck market continues to be strong with no signs of a slowdown, the newspaper Dagens Industri reported. Into Finland now where Helsinki shares closed higher as blue chips stocks clawed back some of this week's losses, with forestry stocks among the best performers on bargain-hunting after a recent slump. The OMX Helsinki 25 ended up 0.95% at 3,005.76 and the OMX Helsinki closed 0.96% higher at 11,497.20. Volume was 937 million Eur. Stora Enso R ended up 3.06% at 10.44 Eur, UPM-Kymmene up 1.30% at 13.20 Eur and M-real B, which hit its lowest level in at least ten years yesterday, was 3.58% firmer at 3.18 Eur. Glitnir repeated its 'buy' rating on M-real, saying there is a plenty of upside potential as conditions in the paper sector improve. It has a 7.00 Eur price target on the share. Also supporting paper stocks were comments by the chief executive of Norwegian rival Norske Skog, who was quoted in a Norwegian newspaper as saying that he believes Norske's share price has fallen too far. Other gainers were Nokia, up 1.33% at 26.00 Eur, Metso, up 1.88% at 36.27 Eur and Cargotec, 3.64% higher at 33.90 Eur. Kemira rose ended 1.67% firmer at 13.42 Eur. Kemira said its Pigments business is to lay off 56 people at its production plant in Pori to cut costs, with the majority to take early retirement packages. Talks with staff at the factory, which employs about 600 people, concluded yesterday. Elisa gave up earlier gains to close 0.91% lower at 20.69 Eur. Elisa last night said it would hold an EGM following demands from its biggest shareholder for a structural revamp of the telecoms group. In other news, Elisa said it has signed a seven-year revolving credit facility worth 130 million Eur, which will be limited to general corporate purposes. And rounding out Scandinavia this week we go to Denmark where Copenhagen's shares closed higher, led up by TrygVesta after a stronger-than-expected third-quarter report, and by Mols-Linien and DFDS after Clipper Group, which owns stock in DFDS, bought 30% of Mols-Linien. The OMXC20 index closed 12.59 points higher at 461.59, while the OMXCB Benchmark index rose 10.87 points to 437.61. The OMXC All Share index closed 10.75 points higher at 445.41 on turnover of 3.91 billion DKr. TrygVesta closed 12.5 DKr higher at 384.5 after the group reiterated its forecasts for full-year premium growth and pre-tax profit. The insurer posted third-quarter pretax profit of 726 million DKr, down from 1.1 billion, on gross premiums earned of 4.23 billion DKr, up from 4.07 billion. Pretax profit in the nine-month period was slightly higher at 2.471 billion DKr, compared with 2.461 billion a year earlier. A poll of analysts by RB Boersen had expected a drop to 2.425 billion on average. Gross premiums earned in the first nine months rose to 12.338 billion DKr from 12.036 previously. The combined ratio remained unchanged in the quarter at 83.7, and dipped slightly in the nine-month period to 86.0 from 86.1 a year earlier. For 2008, a premium growth of 5% in local currency, a combined ratio of about 90 excluding run-offs and return on equity of 20-22% is expected, the company said. Amagerbanken recommended 'cautious buy' of TrygVesta stock after the earnings report and following the 15% fall in the share price since mid-October. Peer insurer Topdanmark also rose, by 35 to 744, while the banks recovered from recent falls. Danske Bank added 9.75 to 197.25, Sydbank was up 9.25 at 207.5 and Jyske Bank ended the session 8.5 higher at 395.5. Mols-Linien rose 21 to 830 after Scandlines sold its 30% stake in the ferry operator to companies controlled by the privately held Clipper Group for 68.5 million Eur, or 600.7 DKr a share. Positive sentiment from this lifted DFDS, where Clipper has 5.9% of the shares, by 40 DKr to 790. DS Torm added 6.25 to 188.25. Nordea Bank said its share analysis unit S&P has raised Torm to 'hold' from 'sell'. Peer shipping line DS Norden was up 12.5 at 493. AP Moller-Maersk A rose 2,200 to 61,500 and the B-shares added 2,200 to 62,400, adding to their recent recovery. DSV was 5 higher at 113. The transport group's chief executive, Kurt Larsen, told daily Berlingske Tidende he sees 'no reason why we cannot repeat the growth rates... we have made the last couple of years'. He also said he expects his group's margins to improve despite high growth rates. ALK-Abello B was up 24 at 732, extending gains yesterday following its nine-month report and positive trial results for allergy vaccine Grazax in treatment of children. Jyske Bank cut its target price cut to 1,300 DKr from 1,863 DKr on prospects of slower uptake of Grazax and lower than expected sales of the grass pollen allergy treatment. Novo Nordisk B rose 11 to 636. The share split announced in August will take effect on Dec 3. The nominal value of the shares will be reduced to 1 DKr from 2 DKr 'to increase liquidity in its shares', while the ratio of the B-shares to US ADRs remains one to one. Lundbeck added 2.5 to 146.5 and Coloplast was 19 higher at 468. FLSmidth rose 7.5 to 462.5. The engineering group is expected to post a nine-months pretax profit on Tuesday of 1.203 billion DKr, up from 501 million DKr a year earlier, on the back of a 64% sales increase to 14.024 billion DKr, according to a survey of analysts by RB Boersen. NKT Holding was 8 higher at 475, with investors shrugging off target price cuts at two brokers. Jyske Bank cut its target to 665 DKr from 685, while Gudme Raaschou Bank lowered its target to 620 DKr from 635. Both have an unchanged 'buy' on the stock. William Demant Holding added 5 to 441.5. Goldman Sachs cut its target to 440 DKr from 520 on a reiterated 'neutral'. GN Store Nord rose 0.7 to 39, while Vestas Wind Systems was down 0.5 at 440. Carlsberg B was 10 higher at 623. John Dunsmore, chief executive of Scottish & Newcastle, which Carlsberg and Heineken are trying to take over, said in a press meeting that his group aims to take over the entirety of joint venture BBH and install a new partner instead of Carlsberg, Berlingske Business reported. Dealers said S&N held an investor meeting in Copenhagen this morning, but there was little new, few questions were allowed and it seemed more a way of boosting the takeover price than being informative. Peer brewer Royal Unibrew was up 35 at 515, Danisco added 7.5 to 363.5 and Novozymes rose 9 to 515. Moving down to the Mediterranean now and starting with Greece where Athen's shares partially recovered from recently lost ground and closed sharply higher in very heavy trade, led by the Greek Postal Savings Bank (GPSB) and Public Power Corp (PPC). The ASE general index jumped 2% to 4,925.6 and the blue-chip index rose 2.3% to 2,602. The mid cap index closed 2% higher at 6,098.1 and the small cap index increased 3.8% to 1,004.9. Advancers outnumbered decliners 248 to 29 while 52 were unchanged in very heavy trade of roughly 1.76 billion Eur which was skewed higher by two block trades of 6.08% of Hellenic Telecoms (OTE). GPSB led blue chip gainers and spiked 8.3% to 12.96 Eur, recovering from recent falls after broker Goldman Sachs reiterated its 'buy' rating and noted that the bank has underperformed Greek peers by about 30% in the year to date. Electricity utility PPC jumped 7.9% to 30.5 Eur on positive sentiment surrounding its new business plan and market talk that the government will approve a generous tariff hike soon. Following the news, UBS upped its target price to 21 Eur from 17.5 Eur and raised its rating to 'neutral' from 'sell'. Lottery operator OPAP closed 3.2% higher at 26.64 Eur following an upbeat nine month results conference call yesterday conducted by its new CEO, Christos Hatziemmanouil. The CEO said he intends to streamline decision making, avoid protracted legal disputes for tenders, and focus on new accountability structure emphasizing responsibility to shareholders. ATEBank jumped 3.2% to 3.82 Eur. It announced better than expected nine month results on Wednesday and said in its conference call today that it sees a strong fourth quarter and positive 2008 performance due to rising household lending. Luxury goods retailer Folli Follie increased by 4.3% to 25.4 Eur. A Thomson Financial News analysts consensus poll sees its nine month group net profit rising 15% year on year to 60 million Eur when it announces its results on Wednesday, Nov 28. OTE closed 0.4% lower at 25 Eur. Morgan Stanley increased its target price by 4% to 28 Eur and kept its rating at 'overweight', noting its recent underperformance. Marfin Popular Bank grew 3.2% to 9.52 Eur, recovering from recent losses and lifted by expectations that it will announce solid nine month results next Tuesday. Bank of Piraeus closed up 4.8% at 25.8 Eur, and the Bank of Cyrpus gained 2.6% to 11.6 Eur, both rebounding from recent falls. Neighbours Italy saw Milan markets also close higher, extending morning gains thanks to a positive opening on Wall Street. The Mibtel closed up 1.64% at 29,147 and the S&P/Mib added 1.73% to 38,012. Turnover was an estimated 6.22 billion Eur. UniCredit added 4.39% to 5.685, leading the banking sector higher. BMPS added 3.65% to 3.75, Banco Popolare rose 3.14% to 14.31 and Intesa gained 2.17% to 5.22. Impregilo gained 4.29% to 4.08 as the construction sector rebounded. Italcementi, up 4.23% at 13.45, after losing almost 20% of its value since the start of this month, as CA Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to 'outperform' from 'underperform' with a 16 Eur target price. That broker said Italcementi's multiples are the lowest in the sector, while the cement group is resilient, given its strong presence in emerging markets. The broker downgraded Buzzi Unicem to 'underperform' from 'outperform' with the price target cut to 18.40 Eur from 24.60 Eur. Buzzi dropped 0.54% to 17.79. Telecom Italia added 1.27% to 2.16 on expectations that the group will appoint a new management new week. Into Spain now where Madrid Share prices closed near session highs in quiet trade, with M&A deals dominating sentiment as Bankinter and Corp Dermoestetica soaring on fresh bid news, while Iberia underperformed on expectations of a drawn-out bidding war. The IBEX-35 index closed up 75.10 points at 15,392.20, after trading in a range of 15,267-15,400. Bankinter gained 1.26 Eur or 11.24% to 12.47 after Credit Agricole said it hopes to get Bank of Spain approval to raise its stake in the Spanish bank to 25-29.99% by March 31, 2008. Other banks were firm, with BBVA rising 0.30 to 16.36 and Santander put on 0.14 to 14.49, while Banesto added 0.08 to 13.74 and Sabadell was up 0.03 at 7.32. Also benefiting from M&A speculation, Corp Dermoestetica soared 1.50 or 23.08% to 8.00, after its chairman confirmed non-binding offers for his 50.01% stake in the medical services provider. Iberia was on offer, shedding 0.06 to 3.20, as analysts see the airline remaining in Spanish hands in the short-term amid an extended bid process. BA is expected to announce Monday whether it will take up its first right of refusal on BBVA's 7% stake in the air carrier put up for sale earlier this week. Abertis slipped 0.03 to 22.22, as investors digested news that the concessionaire has hiked its stake in Brisa, but rules out a full bid. And we round off Europe this week in Portugal where in Lisbon Shares closed sharply higher, adding to gains yesterday in line with positive sentiment in Europe, boosted by blue chip BCP and Banco BPI on reports the two banks are near a merger agreement and also by Sonaecom on M&A talk. The PSI 20 index closed up 134.63 points or 1.05% at 13,013.89 after trading in the 12,910-13,046 band. Equities opened higher and rose slightly after to trade in a narrow range well in positive territory throughout the day before closing near highs after a positive performance on Wall St. BCP gained 0.10 Eur or 3.26% to 3.17 and BPI rose 0.20 or 3.66% to 5.67, after further un-sourced press reports suggesting the banks are close to a merger agreement. Press reports cited BPI chairman Artur Santos Silva as saying the outcome of merger talks should come next week, while Semanario Economico said the banks have agreed to rotating the post of CEO at the merged entity every three years, surpassing a potential deal-breaker. Among telecoms, Sonaecom gained 0.13 or 3.47% to 3.88 and PT Multimedia rose 0.03 to 9.23, both off earlier highs, on reports Sonaecom has been in contact with several PTM shareholders to sound out the possibilities of a friendly merger. Later, PTM denied the reports indicating it is in merger talks with rival telecom operator Sonaecom. In a statement, PTM said that no 'direct or indirect, formal or informal' M&A contacts have been made between the two companies. Meanwhile, Sonaecom said it has been considering consolidation opportunities in the telecoms market, with a friendly merger with PTM one of many hypotheses under consideration. Conglomerate Sonae rose 0.04 or 2.06% to 1.98, tracking gains in Sonaecom, in which it has an about 50% stake. Pulp and paper stock Portucel was up 0.05 or 2.20% at 2.32 after ESN included the company in its 'European top picks' list. Additionally, analysts cited pulp price increases by several of its peers as signalling strength in the pulp market. In the energy sector, EDP added 0.04 to 4.69, supporting the PSI 20, while grid operator REN gained 0.02 to 3.54. Among the few fallers, Brisa shed 0.07 to 10.03. Earlier, Abertis said it has raised its stake in Brisa by 4.58% to 14.58%, paying 272.2 million Eur for the additional shares, adding it has no plans to make a bid for the Portuguese group. |
The FTSE 100 rallied for a second consecutive session following a fall of more than 3% between Monday and Wednesday. The main index closed up 106.8 points, or 1.7%, at 6,262.1 while the FTSE 250 gained 216.3 points, or 2.1%, to 10,531.2. The gains, made while the US was preoccupied with the Thanksgiving holiday, meant losses during the week were limited to 0.5% for the blue-chips and 2.2% for the mid-caps. Merger and acquisitions rumours drove the rebound in the mining sector, with Rio Tinto up 7.9% to £53.15 on talk that BHP Billiton was preparing to raise its offer. Vedanta Resources gained 7.2% to £20.36 amid talk a Chinese buyer was prepared to pay up to £27-a-share for the India-based group. However, some dealers thought the rumour may have been timed to coincide with unwelcome news that India’s Supreme Court had denied the company’s petition to begin mining bauxite in Orissa province. Anglo American, up 6.1% to £29.80, was boosted by an HSBC upgrade from “neutral to “overweight” with a £35 price target. Some other sectors hit hard earlier in the week also rebounded, including banks, retailers and housebuilders. Gains for the under-pressure housebuilders came despite news of a slump in mortgage approvals last month. Taylor Wimpey rose 7.8% to 196.2p, Barratt Developments added 5.4% to 484¼p and Persimmon gained 5.3% to 794p. Royal Bank of Scotland led the banks higher with a gain of 4.7% to 421p while Northern Rock reversed early losses to close up 2.2% at 85.9p. Takeover speculation sent Mitchells & Butlers 7.2% higher to 641p ahead of next week’s figures from the pubs and bars group. United Utilities gained 2.1% to 718p as dealers welcomed the £1.14bn recouped from the sale of its electricity distribution assets, most of which will be returned to shareholders. Centrica lost 2.2% to 347¾p as Citigroup placed 17.3m shares in the energy supplier at 342p. Oil stocks slipped back as the crude price moved further from the $99.29 high hit earlier in the week. Royal Dutch Shell lost 1.5% to £19.81 and BG Group slipped 0.4% to 986p. In the mid-caps, Biffa rose 24.8% to 325p as a bid vehicle comprised of Montagu Private Equity and HgCapital said the waste management group had rejected their approach for a recommended offer. Sports Direct fell 2.9% to a new all-time low of 93¼p the day after England’s failure to qualify for next year’s European football championships prompted the sporting goods retailer to warn on profits. |
Chinese shares had a volatile day, dropping in the morning but then rising in the afternoon on speculation that the stronger Rmb would boost demand for Chinese assets. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed back above the 5,000 level, after dropping below it Thursday for the first time since August. It closed one% higher at 5,032.13. Shenzhen rose by 1.5% to 1,272.14. The MSCI Asia Pacific index moved up 0.2% to 506.64 as of 4:19 pm in Hong Kong. The addition follows an 8.3% decline over a six day period. Japan , as mentioned, was closed for a public holiday Friday. Hong Kong shares closed higher on Friday as investors picked up bargains in badly hit sectors such as properties and banks after the key Hang Seng index fell 6.8% in the last two sessions. Comments from Hong Kong billionaire Lee Shau-kee, also known as 'Asia's Warren Buffett', also spurred buying interest. Lee said he is ready to invest 10 billion Hong Kong Dollars in the local market after reportedly spending as much as 2 billion Dollars on stocks yesterday. The Hang Seng index closed up 536.17 points or 2.1% at 26,541.09 , ending the week down 3.9%. Turnover reached 104.89 billion Hong Kong Dollars. Chinese banks led the market's advance after Standard & Poor's raised its ratings on Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and two other mainland lenders. Investors bought CNOOC Ltd, which rose 4.4%, after Lee Shau-kee endorsed the oil company among strong market performers for the near term, but MTR Corp shed gains following an announcement of a cut in rail fares. Sinotrans Shipping, China's third-largest dry bulk shipper, failed expectations after staging a weak market debut. South Korean shares finished lower after a volatile session Friday as investors dumped stocks on worries the market may fall further on a shaky outlook for the US economy, the country's key trading partner. Bargain hunters attempted to push the market higher at the opening but the the momentum quickly lost steam as sellers emerged, dragging down the key KOSPI index by nearly 3%. Losses in Chinese markets also dented sentiment. The KOSPI index closed down 26.14 points or 1.5% at 1,772.88, after trading between 1,745.26 and 1,820.61. The benchmark index shed nearly 8% this week. Shares of shipbuilders, machinery makers and brokerage houses were among key decliners. China A-shares closed higher after a late rebound by banks and airlines, dealers said, although turnover hit its lowest level since the end of 2006. They said investors adopted a wait-and-see attitude after Thursday's more than 4% tumble. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed up 47.97 points or 0.96% at 5,032.13, ending the week down 5.37%. Turnover fell to 50.21 billion RMB from 64.73 in the previous session, the lowest level since December 28, 2006. The Shanghai Composite Index has retreated nearly 20% from its all-time high at 6,124.04 points on Oct 16 but the market is still up 88% this year. Some analysts said now is a good time for medium-term investors to build positions in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index components, with their price-to-earnings ratios down to about 30 times. Market liquidity is also expected to improve next week after funds frozen in a large initial public offering are returned on Monday to investors who failed to obtain shares. China Railway Group, the country's largest construction company, said it attracted 3.383 trln RMB in subscriptions for its Shanghai IPO, exceeding the previous record of 3.378 trln set by PetroChina in October. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China added 0.14 RMB to 7.90, and Huaxia Bank Co Ltd surged 1.50 RMB or 8.16 to 19.89. Airlines, which have large debt payments denominated in usd, recovered partly because of further appreciation of the RMB. The central bank today set a record high daily reference rate for the RMB at 7.3992. China Southern Airlines Co Ltd soared 2.13 RMB or the 10% daily limit to 23.44 and Air China Ltd rose 1.41 RMB to 20.66. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp gained 0.22 RMB to 22.32 in choppy trade. PetroChina Co Ltd, the country's largest oil producer, pared earlier losses and closed down 0.52 RMB at 34.59. It hit its lowest level since listing at 33.75. The Shanghai A-share Index rose 50.81 points or 0.97% at 5,281.78 and the Shenzhen A-share Index was up 20.34 points or 1.55% at 1,334.40. The FTSE/Xinhua China A 50 Index was up 308.64 points at 19,472.15 and the FTSE/Xinhua China A 200 Index was up 220.30 points at 13,903.14. In Taiwan , Taipei Share prices closed sharply lower, with the key index at a three-month low, as early gains spurred by stronger-than-expected economic growth gave way to renewed worries over global market outlook. Third-quarter GDP data helped the market get off to a firmer start but investors lost their nerve after witnessing continued weakness on China bourses, dealers noted. Taiwan's Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) announced yesterday that gross domestic product (GDP) rose 6.92% year-on-year in the third quarter, surpassing its own previous projection as well as analyst estimates. The cabinet-level agency also raised the full-year economic growth forecast to 5.46% from a previous projection of 4.58% made in August. The weighted index closed down 157.17 points or 1.85% at the day's low of 8,342.20, and off a high of 8.559.05. Turnover of 106.77 billion Taiwan Dollars. For the week, the index is down 422.62 points or 4.82%. Decliners led risers 1,826 to 281, with 292 stocks unchanged. A total of 42 stocks closed limit-down and five limit-up. The food sector was down 5.18%, construction sector down 2.17%, cement down 2.03%, plastics/petrochemical down 2.01%, electronics down 1.91%, paper down 1.86%, textiles down 1.28%, and financial down 1.08%. The only bright spot was the steel sector, which benefited from China Steel's 5.42% increase in first-quarter 2008 domestic prices. China Steel closed up 0.40 Taiwan Dollars at 41.60, helping the sector gain 0.40%. The Taiwan Dollar closed the morning at 32.353 to the US Dollar, compared with the previous close of 32.340. Uni-President was limit-down 2.90 Taiwan Dollars or 6.90% at 39.10, extending losses as the recent slide on Hong Kong bourse dampened investor enthusiasm about the company's plan to list its mainland operations in the southern Chinese territory. Taiwan Cement was down 1.35 Taiwan Dollars or 2.97% at 44.05, and Formosa Plastics lost 2.00 Taiwan Dollars or 2.33% at 84.00. TSMC was down 0.30 at 59.60 and UMC fell 0.20 tot 19.70. Taiwan Cooperative Bank was down 0.30 at 22.95 on a report that Cathay Financial unit Cathay Life has lowered its take in the bank. Cathay Financial was down 0.70 at 69.10. Shin Kong Financial was down 0.70 Taiwan Dollars or 2.72% at 25.00, with its ongoing share repurchase program having limited impact. Masterlink Securities was down 0.35 Taiwan Dollars or 2.47% at 13.80, failing to benefit from news that Shin Kong Financial has secured regulatory approval to increase its stake in Masterlink by 10%. Philippine shares closed slightly higher Friday on a technical rebound led by index heavyweight Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co, snapping a three-day decline. The market was also supported by rotational interest into cheaper stocks. Trading throughout the session was hampered by a technical glitch, with traders unable to see how the benchmark composite was doing. The market closed at 12:10 pm with the Philippine Stock Exchange failing to resolve the technical problems. PSE was forced to compute the level of the main index manually. At the close, Manila's composite index was up 15.50 points or 0.5% at 3,494.44. For the week the index was down 2.9%. Except for the composite index, all the other indexes were reflected on trading screens. The broader all-share index closed up 5.94 points or 0.3% at 2,127.71. Gainers outnumbered decliners 71 to 30, while 54 stocks were unchanged. A total of 1.8 billion shares worth 3.9 billion Pesos were traded. The lack of fresh, convincing leads discouraged investors from taking firmer positions, with financial markets in the US closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Index heavyweight PLDT bounced from yesterday's slide, adding 10 Pesos or 0.3% to 3,010. Power producer First Gen Corp gained 2.50 Pesos or 4.3% to 60.50 Pesos after the government declared its consortium the winning bidder for a 60% stake in PNOC Energy Development Corp. First Gen led the consortium that submitted the highest bid of 58.5 billion Pesos for the stake. PNOC-EDC inched up 10 centavos or 1.5% to 7 Pesos. Financial counters were higher led by Banco de Oro-EPCI, the country's second-largest bank in terms of assets. The stock rose 1.50 Pesos or 2.9% to 52.00 Pesos. Bank of the Philippine Islands gained 50 centavos or 0.8% to 61.50 Pesos. Property developer Ayala Land Inc edged up 25 centavos or 1.6% to 16 Pesos. Mall operator SM Prime Holdings was up 25 centavos or 2.2% at 11.50 Pesos. Decliners included food and beverage conglomerate San Miguel Corp. The company's A-shares, which are limited to Filipino investors, lost 3 Pesos or 6.6% to 42.50 Pesos. Its B-shares, which are open to all investors, fell 1.50 Pesos or 3.3% to 44 Pesos. Conglomerate Ayala Corp lost 5 Pesos or 0.9% to 555 Pesos. Indonesian shares closed higher Friday led by Astra International and miners, but gains were limited as some market players squared positions ahead of the weekend. Indosat also ended higher on strong nine-month results. Trading volume was thin as many market players stayed on the sideline waiting for fresh leads. The composite index closed up 14.83 points or 0.6% at 2,584.35, off a high of 2,595.54. For the week, the main index fell 84.35 points or 3.2%. The LQ-45 was up 3.74 points at 563.60. Volume was 2.18 billion shares worth 3.55 trillion Rupiah. Gainers led decliners 89 to 71, with 70 stocks unchanged. The Indonesian Rupiah was trading at 9,370/9,373 to the US Dollar, compared to 9,385/9,395 late Thursday. Automotive company Astra International rose 800 Rupiah or 3.6% to 23,200 and oil and gas producer Medco was up 250 Rupiah or 4.9% at 5,400. Coal producer Bumi Resources rose 325 Rupiah or 7.5% to 4,650, Bukit Asam, also a coal producer, added 150 Rupiah or 1.5% to 10,300, nickel and gold miner Antam rose 300 or 6.9% to 4,650 and nickel miner Inco rose 2,000 Rupiah or 2.1% to 95,000. Plantation company Astra Agro rose 750 Rupiah or 3.5% to 21,950 and Bakrie Sumatra edged up 25 Rupiah or 1.2% to 2,150. Telkom fell 150 Rupiah or 1.5% to 10,050, after a high of 10,300, while rival Indosat advanced 250 Rupiah or 2.9% to 8,800 after announcing that its net profit for the first nine months rose 56% to 1.45 trillion Rupiah, helped by stronger sales. Interest in Indosat was also fueled by upbeat note by Citigroup. The investment house said Friday it has raised its target price for Indosat by 17% to 9,600 Rupiah, in line with the upward revision of its forecast for the company's earnings for 2007-2009. Malaysian shares closed higher Friday on a technical rebound led by index heavyweights, snapping a five-day decline. Volumes were lean with many traders still worried about the uncertain outlook for the US economy. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) was up 9.39 points or 0.7% at 1,353.55. For the week, the KLCI was down 33.09 points or 2.4%. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia 30-large cap index added 79.03 points or 0.9% to 8,623.44, and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia second board index was up 23.32 points or 0.3% at 6,830.69. Gainers led decliners 478 to 298, with 306 stocks unchanged and 246 counters untraded. Volume was a low 679.486 million shares, valued at 1.071 billion Ringgit. Late bargain-hunting in select index heavyweights gave the market the momentum to finish higher despite thin volumes and a generally cautious mood. Among index heavyweights, state-run Telekom Malaysia gained 10 sen or 1% to 10.50 Ringgit while national power company Tenaga was up 10 sen or 1.1% at 9.05 Ringgit and Maybank, Malaysia's largest bank, added 10 sen or 0.9% to 11.60 Ringgit. Other major stocks like casino operator Genting gained 25 sen or 3.3% at 7.75 Ringgit after the group announced a special dividend of 30 sen per share for the third quarter. Diversified group YTL Corp added 20 sen or 2.7% to 7.55 Ringgit after it said fiscal first-quarter net profit rose 46% to 225 million Ringgit. State-owned shipping company MISC Bhd rose 5 sen or 0.5% to 9.75 Ringgit. The company said its second-quarter net profit dropped to 639 million Ringgit from 683 million Ringgit a year before. DiGi.com, the local unit of Norway's Telenor, was the biggest decliner, falling 40 sen or 1.7% to 23.30 Ringgit. AirAsia, Southeast Asia's largest budget airline, was down 1 sen or 0.6% at 1.77 Ringgit ahead of the release of its first-quarter results later today. Proton Holdings dropped 2 sen or 0.5% to 4.04 Ringgit. The national carmaker will soon unveil its turnaround plan following the government's decision to end talks with Volkswagen and General Motors about a strategic alliance, the Edge Financial Daily reported. Plantation company Kuala Lumpur Kepong slid 10 sen or 0.6% to 15.70 Ringgit, while IOI Corp, the largest listed oil palm planter in the country, added 10 sen or 1.5% to 6.95 Ringgit The Ringgit closed at 3.3580/3630 against the US Dollar. Three-month interbank rates were quoted at 3.55/58% and overnight rates stood at 3.48/50%. Singapore shares closed higher on Friday as investors hunted for bargains, but the overall market tone remained cautious due to the unexpected spike in October inflation. The consumer price index in Singapore rose at a faster-than-expected 3.6% in October from a year ago as soaring fuel prices boosted the cost of transportation, as well as housing, the Department of Statistics said Friday. The benchmark Straits Times Index rose 13.01 points or 0.4% to close at 3,325.89, after moving between an intraday low of 3,311.16 and a high of 33,41.59 points. For the week, the index was down 115.07 points or 3.3%. There were 1.4 billion shares valued at 1.5 billion Singapore Dollars in Friday's trade. Gainers outnumbered decliners 374 to 332 with 2,078 stocks unchanged. Despite the acceleration in inflation, partly caused by higher goods and services tax (GST), the country's de facto central bank - the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) - is likely to maintain its current monetary policy of allowing the gradual and modest appreciation of the Singapore Dollar's nominal effective exchange rate with a slight tightening bias. Singapore Telecommunications supported the index, rising 4 Singapore cents to 3.72 Dollars. DBS Vickers said the company should see just a minimal decline in earnings in the event that its Indonesian unit PT Telkomsel gets penalized by a tariff reduction. DBS Vickers has a target price of 4.50 Singapore Dollars for SingTel, with a 'buy' recommendation. Water treatment specialist Hyflux surged 31 cents to 3.22 Dollars after announcing that its unit Hyflux Water Trust has launched an initial public offering of 165 million shares at 78 Singapore cents a share. The company will inject its 13 water treatment facilities into Hyflux Water Trust and will hold a 25% stake in the trust unit post-IPO. Most banking stocks were steady. DBS Group was unchanged at 19.0 Dollars and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp flat at 8.20 Dollars. United Overseas Bank fell 20 cents to 18.80 Dollars. Property stocks were mixed, with Keppel Land up 5 cents at 7.65 Dollars, City Developments added 20 cents to 13.70 while CapitaLand was steady at 6.50 Dollars. There were still concerns that the government's latest measure, aimed at preventing home buyers from deferring initial payments on properties under construction, will crimp housing demand. Trading debutante packaging materials manufacturer Dynamic Colours closed at 18 cents, below its initial public offer price of 21.5 cents. Thai share prices closed 1.91% higher Friday in a technical rebound. However, the gains are expected to be short-lived as investors remain cautious amid continuing uncertainty in global stock markets. The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index jumped 15.43 points or 1.91% to close at 824.25, and the blue chip SET-50 index rose 13.23 points to 603.00. Gainers overwhelmed losers 251 to 76 and 118 stocks were unchanged, with market turnover of 2.2 billion shares worth 16.8 billion Baht . The Thai Baht was stable against the Dollar at 33.82-83 Baht, compared to Thursday's close of 33.81-83. The unit weakened slightly against the Euro, closing at 50.18-40 compared to previous day's close at 50.10-18. The country's largest lender Bangkok Bank dropped 1.00 Baht at 114.00 Baht, but Kasikornbank rose 1.50 to 81.50 and Siam Commercial Bank added 0.50 Baht to 82.50. Siam Cement rose 6.00 Baht to 230.00 Baht, and Thai Airways edged up 0.25 Baht to 36.75 Baht. PTT Plc gained 4.00 to 360.00 Baht and its subsidiary PTT Exploration and Production jumped 8.00 to 147.00 Baht. Indian shares ended their six-day losing streak, as bargain-hunters bought beaten down blue-chips. The Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark Sensex rose 1.76% or 326.55 points at 18,852.87, while the National Stock Exchange's S&P CNX Nifty gained 1.62% to 5,608.60 points. Among the BSE 30, 22 shares gained and 8 lost. In the broader market 1,760 shares advanced, 1,034 declined and 48 were unchanged. Trading was choppy as concerns over capital inflows and a bleak outlook for the US economy persist. Shares of India's information technology companies were in special demand, with the BSE IT Index surging 1.44% to 4,017.10 points, which analysts attributed to covering of short positions. Software bellwether Infosy Technologies Ltd rose 1.71% to 1,558 Rupees, its larger peer Tata Consultancy Services Ltd gained 1.13% to 960 Rupees, and Wipro Ltd gained 0.94% to 442.05 Rupees. Shares of DLF Ltd surged 5.58% to 868.65 Rupees after two leading business dailies reported that US-based Burger King was interested in setting up a 51:49 joint venture with India's largest property developer. Shares of automobile manufacturers also saw demand, after a sluggish period since the Indian central hiked the cash reserve ratio for banks, and dashed hopes for a cut in interest rates on loans, which facilitate most vehicle sales in India. Bajaj Auto Ltd gained 2.46% to 2,533.30 Rupees after the company said demand continues post the festive season, with an estimated 50,000 customers waiting to buy the Platina range of bikes and 20,000 waiting for the XCD 125 range. Tata Motors Ltd rose 3.27% to 714.65 Rupees on reports that the potential bid for Ford Motors Jaguar and Land Rover units now had the backing of the global automakers British union. If Ford Motor goes ahead with the sale of its UK-based units, it must be to somebody with an established presence and background in manufacturing, and Tata best meets these criteria, the union said in a statement. Purvankara Projects Ltd rose 2.32% to 400.90 Rupees after the company said it had won a 6.30 billion Rupee bid for land in the southern Indian city of Hyderabad. The company will use the land for mixed development of high-end ultra luxury retail, residential, commercial and hospitality complexes, Puravankara Projects said. Down under now and starting with New Zealand where Wellington shares closed higher Friday in cautious, low-volume trading after the US Thanksgiving holiday. The benchmark NZX-50 index rose 16.78 points or 0.4% to close at 4,071.00 on light turnover worth 71.2 million New Zealand Dollars. Market leader Telecom rose 7 cents to 4.27 Dollars, providing most of the upward momentum for the broader market. Fletcher Building fell 5 cents to 11.75 Dollars despite being named as the prime contractor to revamp Auckland's Eden Park stadium for the 2011 Rugby World Cup. Contact Energy rose 4 cents to 8.89 Dollars and retirement village operator Ryman Healthcare was up 2 cents at 2.07 Dollars after reporting a 22% rise in half-year net profit. NZ Oil & Gas fell 2 cents to 1.10 Dollars after gaining 11 cents Thursday on news that the estimate of oil reserves in its Tui oil and gas field has increased 30% to 41.7 million barrels. Casino operator Sky City ended unchanged on 5.18 Dollars, with possible bidders for the company expected to show their hands early next week. Market movements suggest investors are not optimistic that any high-priced bids for Sky City will emerge. And rounding out the Asia Pacific region this week, we go to Sydney where Australian shares closed a thin session lower on Friday, as the major banking and resources stocks led the market lower for the sixth week in a row. The S&P/ASX 200 closed 4.1 points or 0.1% lower at 6,330.2, after trading between 6,312.7 and 6,344.4. For the week, the benchmark index was down 131.7 points or 2%. The All Ordinaries closed down 2.7 points or 0.04% at 6,392.4. The market was directionless due to a lack of fresh leads from Wall Street overnight, with the US markets closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Uncertainty about the outcome of the Australian federal election tomorrow also kept some investors sidelined, though its significance in the minds of investors paled next to concerns about the US economy and ongoing fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis. The S&P/ASX 200 December futures contract was off 14 points at 6,357. Volume traded was 2.7 billion shares worth about 4.1 billion Australian Dollars. Decliners outstripped gainers 634 to 620, with 370 issues unchanged at the closing bell. The yield on the 10-year bond eased 0.0125 of a percentage point to 5.8475% while the yield on 90-day bills was down 0.005 of a percentage point to 7.165%. The Australian market is heading for its worst month in more than six years with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index already down 6.2% for the month, its biggest monthly decline since a 6.9% fall in September 2001. Notwithstanding the dismal performance, the market has held up reasonably well against other markets due to robust economic growth, strong earnings in the banking sector and Australia's proximity to Asia. From their highs in either October or early November to their recent lows Australian shares have fallen 8%, European shares have fallen 9%, US shares have fallen 10%, Japanese shares have fallen 15% and Asian shares have fallen 14%. Among individual stocks, National Australia Bank fell 53 cents or 1.3% to 39.95 Dollars, Commonwealth Bank dropped 70 cents or 1.2% to 57.20 Dollars and Westpac was down 42 cents or 1.5% at 26.84 Dollars. BHP Billiton, which wants to merge with its smaller rival Rio Tinto, shed 17 cents or 0.4% to 40.27 Dollars. Rio closed 37 cents or 0.3% lower at 128.40 Dollars. Insurance group QBE jumped 90 cents or 2.9% to 31.75 Dollars after investment bank UBS upgraded its recommendation on the stock to 'buy'. |
Oil hit a record $99.29 on Wednesday but profit-taking thwarted its latest efforts to reach the century mark. We have seen massive sell-offs in US equities, credit markets are seizing up again and base metal prices have undergone severe corrections in recent weeks. Energy bulls seems to be oblivious to all this, as they gun for the $100 mark and beyond. Nymex January West Texas Intermediate rose 81 cents to $98.10 a barrel Friday, gaining 3.2% this week. ICE January Brent surged $1.25 to $95.75 a barrel, up 4.5% this week. Platinum hit a record $1,475 a troy ounce Friday, gaining 2% this week on news of further supply disruptions in South Africa. Impala Platinum, the world’s second-largest producer, shut one of two shafts at its Marula mine after a worker was killed. Strike action by the National Union of Mineworkers is planned for December 4 and the government is to start a nationwide safety audit next month, which is raising concerns about further supply disruptions in an already tight market. Gold surged 2.5% to $824.20 a troy ounce in late London trading Friday, up 4.7% this week, supported by Dollar weakness and fears over an oil- induced rise in inflation. In Chicago, grains enjoyed support from strong US weekly export sales data. Soyabeans soared to a 34-year high Friday on news of US export sales of 1.81m tonnes, up 39% compared with the previous week and well above the consensus market forecast. China, the world’s largest importer, is buying more beans as its domestic yields are expected to decline this year. CBOT January soyabeans rose 17 cents to $11.01 a bushel Friday, a gain of 2.2% this week. CBOT December corn added 7 cents to $3.89 a bushel Friday, up 2.5% this week after export sales jumped 35% to 1.85m tonnes. CBOT December wheat gained 16½ cents to $8.20 a bushel Friday, rebounding 9.4% this week after export sales increased 18% to 491,800 tonnes. Further support came from recent talk that India is looking to buy an additional 300,000 tonnes of wheat. |
Analysts said the relentless flow of negative news from US banks and retailers and the weakening outlook for technology companies weighed on the Dollar. The bearish mood was exacerbated by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday as it expressed concern over the possibility of a sharp downturn in economic growth. While the Dollar weakened all week, the move took a decidedly more violent turn Friday as liquidity dried up due to the holidays in the US and Japan. Indeed, the Dollar tumbled to a record low of $1.4966 against the Euro and SFr1.0899 against the Swiss franc at one point. Analysts said holiday-thinned trading conditions provided the ideal opportunity for many of the key underlying trends in the foreign exchange market to extend further. However, after its slump, the Dollar recouped some of its losses Friday as comments from the European Central Bank hit dealing screens. Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez, governor of the Bank of Spain and an ECB council member, said world financial turmoil threatened a stronger-than-expected slowdown in the Eurozone, while Jean Claude Trichet, ECB president, said “brutal” movements in the foreign exchange market were unwelcome. Nevertheless, over the week, the Dollar fell 1% to $1.4810 against the Euro, dropped 1.4% to SFr1.1015 against the Swiss franc and lost 0.2% to $2.0590 against Sterling. The Dollar plummeted 2.8% to Y107.90 against the Yen on the week, hitting its weakest level since May 2005. The Yen also advanced against other currencies. Weakness on global equity markets heightened risk aversion and saw investors shy away from carry trades, in which the low-yielding Japanese currency is sold to finance the purchase of riskier, higher-yielding assets elsewhere. Analysts said a report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development had boosted demand for the Yen. The OECD said losses caused by the meltdown in the US mortgage market could hit $300bn and that the credit crunch had yet to inflict damage on equity markets. Over the week the Yen rose 1.7% to Y159.85 against the Euro, climbed 0.8% to Y222.10 against the Pound and gained 5% to Y94.10 and 3.5% to Y81.05 against the higher-yielding Australian and New Zealand Dollars respectively. Meanwhile, the Pound dropped to its lowest level in 4½ years against the Euro after minutes from the Bank of England’s November meeting showed two of its nine-strong monetary policy committee voted for a cut in UK interest rates. Analysts expressed surprise that John Gieve, the central bank’s normally hawkish deputy governor, had joined with David Blanchflower, who was alone in voting for a cut in rates at the October meeting. The Pound fell 0.8% to £0.7203 against the Euro over the week. South Africa's Rand softened more than 1.1% against the Dollar on Friday, as the greenback staged a slight recovery abroad. The Rand was at 6.8425 against the Dollar after earlier touching 6.8600 from it's previous close of 6.7825. The Australian Dollar was buying 87.16 US cents, 93 Japanese Yen, 42 British pence and 58 Euro cents. And rounding off currencies this week as usual, we go to China and the RMB. The RMB finished at 7.4060 to the Dollar on the over-the-counter (OTC) market, a new high and compared with 7.4145 Thursday. On the exchange-traded market, the RMB also ended at a fresh high of 7.4106, compared with Thursday's record close of 7.4110. |
Mr Mandelson’s comments reiterated the call he made in Washington this month highlighting Brussels’ concern ahead of a Sino-EU summit in the Chinese capital next week. European frustration with China’s limits on market access for foreign companies and an exchange rate policy seen as undervaluing the renminbi has been fuelled by the growth of a trade deficit with China to €86bn in the first seven months of the year. “Europe is becoming more open to China, but I can’t sustain that unless China shows the same openness to us,” Mr Mandelson told the Financial Times, warning he would come under increasing pressure to take tougher action if Beijing did not move to clear market barriers. “During the six days that I spent in China, the trade deficit will grow by over €2bn, or €15m an hour – that is what I call unsustainable,” he said. “There are real issues of market access, legal protection, as well as the other issues we are dealing with – like counterfeiting and export of fake goods.” Mr Mandelson’s call on China reflects frustration among European companies at what they see as Beijing’s failure to act on a host of long-standing complaints. He said Chinese leaders needed to reduce non-tariff barriers, regulation and discrimination against European companies. “When we pin them to the actions, they respond in terms of trade fairs and investment promotion,” he said. “I don’t want take-aways or overnight presentational devices. I want real sustained action to remedy the problems.” Mr Mandelson made clear a Chinese failure to deliver change could force Brussels to resort to trade defence measures, such as anti-dumping duties, or – in extremis – complaints to the World Trade Organisation. China should “manage its currency better” for its own economic good and to address the widening trade gap, he said. Mr Mandelson’s warning will add to tensions surrounding next week’s EU-China summit. A survey of EU companies by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in Beijing highlighted dissatisfaction with China’s lack of government transparency, its record on intellectual property protection and its cumbersome bureaucratic procedures. “The investment climate is unfortunately not changing much, not getting better,” Jörg Wuttke, the Chamber President, said. Intellectual property rights protection remained a problem for 66% of responding companies, he added. “There has been a lot of talk and not much walk.” In spite of such complaints, 61% of companies reported being profitable and 73% were optimistic about future growth, the survey found. ********************************************************** China allowed its RMB to creep to another record high in its tightly controlled spot currency trading Friday, ahead of visits by key European officials, but analysts cautioned that the movement might not signal any larger moves to come. Instead, outside of spot currency trading, a more significant signal that might emerge is a shift to Euros from Dollars in any deals with European companies announced during the visits. French President Nicolas Sarkozy will make his first state visit to China this weekend. Then Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, European Union Commissioner Joaquin Almunia and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will arrives in Beijing on Nov. 27 for two days of talks. The central People's Bank of China set its official parity rate for RMB trading at a record high of 7.3992 to the Dollar Friday morning, compared with 7.4150 the previous trading day, according to XFN-Asia. The RMB finished at 7.4060 to the Dollar on the over-the-counter market. The Chinese currency moved up 0.11% on a net basis, and about 0.24% against the European unit. Sarkozy will be accompanied by a delegation of French industry leaders. During his visit, China is expected to announce a deal with Areva SA, the world's largest builder of nuclear reactors, which could be worth between 5 billion and 7 billion Euros, according to various media reports. For the first time, the Areva deal will be concluded in Euros and not in the customary Dollars, according to a Reuters report Friday citing an unnamed source. "The agreement that Areva should sign on Monday in Beijing with China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corp. will be denominated in Euros," the source was quoted as saying, confirming a report in France's Le Figaro newspaper. |
Summary Russia's central bank will start accepting Eurobonds as collateral for its daily repurchasing auctions from next week, its deputy chairman said on Wednesday.
The move aims to widen funding options for Russian banks after months of a liquidity squeeze stemming from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis.
In the US itself next week, four major investment banks will close their books for the year. Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley observe a fiscal year end of November 30.
The key risk for the week will be the potential for a liquidity squeeze going into 30 November.
Banks, along with entities trying to get a jump on the calendar year end, will be attempting to clean up their balance sheets for reporting. As a result, the selling of inventory and positions could run into illiquid conditions associated with the recent volatility and the holidays, causing spreads to widen.
Analysts in the US are hoping that next week will bring a clearer picture of the state of the housing sector. Sales of new and existing homes — already near record lows — are expected to have declined again last month. Analysts will also keep an eye on the independent Case-Shiller index of home prices and the Fed’s beige book, a survey of business conditions across the country.
US consumer confidence data for November is released Tuesday and existing and new home sales Wednesday and Thursday. Housing data aren't expected to show any sign of improvement. On Thursday, the markets will also get the preliminary reading for 3Q GDP, which is expected to be revised up to around 5% from the initially reported 3.9% - reminding investors that the economy had some momentum in the third quarter. However, given the current market turmoil, the data are likely to be seen as out-of-date and of little bearing to the economic outlook.
Computer-maker Dell reports its fiscal year 2008 third-quarter results Thursday, amid concerns that its reliance on the slumping US market for a bulk of its sales will derail what has been largely a turnaround story this year.
Sears Holdings reports third-quarter results next Thursday, and analysts expect earnings per share to decline 6%. The Hoffman Estates, Ill., retailer is likely being hit harder than others by the stumbling housing market, which has sapped demand for washing machines, lawn mowers, power tools and home furnishings. But while short interest in Sears shares has risen in recent months, the chain has some high-profile backers.
Richard W. Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, will speak Wednesday during a community forum in Amarillo, Texas, hosted by the Dallas Fed. Fisher is slated to discuss the regional economy and the Federal Reserve, and also to take questions from the audience - if he is anything like Ben Bernanke was two weeks ago, we will get a lot more "Um's" and "Ugh's" banded around - but would the Texan's even notice?
Canadian banks are to begin reporting their fourth-quarter earnings next week, with Bank of Montreal (BMO) kicking things off as usual. The bank issues its results Tuesday, followed by Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) Thursday and Royal Bank of Canada (RY) Friday. All of the banks except TD have announced charges related to their holdings of troubled securities, but have offset those hits with other one-time gains. Nevertheless, analysts will be on the outlook for trading losses and expect wholesale revenues to show a decline.
In the UK, trading statements from Barclays, Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley loom over next week. The statements could either provide some reassurance or presumably more concern over the credit crunch.
Amidst all of this in the UK, the market awaits news which we are told may come as early as next week on the bids for Northern Rock. Should these prove at a higher value than has been anticipated it could boost the UK significantly, however many believe it will continue to weigh on sentiment.
Also expected next week is a bid defense from Rio Tinto against its approach from BHP Biliton. Fund managers will listen to the conference call carefully hopeful that miners can continue to drive returns as they have for many stars over the past year.
All told Ladies and Gentlemen, next week should, in my view, start fairly positively Monday and then taper off to more losses over the week as the credit-crunch fears continue. With so many banks having to report next week, I think we could well see a few more 'shock' announcements of larger write-downs and these will of course, unsettle markets further.
As always, I will keep you posted as/when major developments occur and wish you all a pleasant weekend in the meantime.
Market Review Newsletter Compiled By
Adrian Page
Managing Director
Financial Page International
Saturday 24 November 2007
"Money Does Not Perform. People Do!"
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