Global Weekly Markets Review - 28 April 2007

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,

Quite a week all round really, with the US Dollar finally falling to record lows against the Euro, CITIC Bank gaining 96% in one day and the Spanish Residential Property Market seemingly approaching imminent collapse.

But there was much more to the week insomuch as the US Data announced yesterday is, I feel, the turning point for markets.  Couple this with a mixed week ahead, holidays playing a key role in terms of market volume, I think we can now start to watch markets come down.

But rather than ponder what I have been saying for a while now, let's go to the numbers and see how they played out this week:

US Markets - A fresh batch of strong earnings updates pushed Wall Street stocks to historic highs this week, but the advance remained more symbolic than substantial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average breached the 13,000 point threshold for the first time on Wednesday, in a move heralded by bulls as a sign of good times ahead.

Yet the technical breakthrough came amid a listless week for the broader S&P 500 index. The benchmark index closed 0.7% higher this week after falling slightly on four out of five days. The Dow rose 1.2% this week.

The Dow closed 0.1% up on Friday at 13,120.94 while the S&P 500 was 0.2 points lower at 1,494.08.

The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.1% at 2,557.21.

The indices were led upwards by companies such as Whirlpool and 3M that were boosted by a weak Dollar and strong growth overseas. Railway and steel stocks, which are more exposed to the US economy, fared less well.

Microsoft broke through the $30 mark for the first time since the launch of the Vista operating system to stand up 3.5% to $30.12 on Friday. But overall investor sentiment was subdued by data showing economic growth slowing.

This came towards the end of one of the best months on Wall Street for more than three years. The Dow rose 6.2% in April, but the gains were driven by a relatively narrow base. About half of the gains were made by just eight of the 30 Dow component stocks.

The steady rise in stocks has made it a testing month for short-sellers. Amazon, for instance, rose 36.9% to $61.50 this week after entering April with short selling of its stock at the highest level since 2003.

While the surge was sparked by a strong earnings report, the jump was partly explained by the unwinding of loss-making short positions.

With more than two-thirds of the company?s shares held by a handful of investors, many short sellers looking to buy the stock may have found it hard to come by.

Baker Hughes, the oil services group, was one of the biggest risers this week, up 11.7% to $81.01.

Like many other US groups reporting during the week, Baker was boosted by strong overseas sales. Whirlpool rose 17.6% to $106.41 in spite of a US housing downturn because of strong appliance sales abroad.

Meanwhile 3M, the Post-it Note maker that generates the majority of its revenues overseas, rose 4.9% to $81.55 on strong profits.

Railways and steel, two sectors that surged this year amid a burst of takeover speculation, began to lose some of their shine.

The S&P Rail index, which is up 19.9% this year, fell 3.5% this week amid signs of weak traffic volume. CSX fell 2.9% to $43.74.

Profit updates from a number of steel groups undermined hopes that the steel cycle was on the up. US Steel slipped 3.6% to $103.04 while Nucor fell 4.1% to $64.94.

Apple surged 9.8% to $98.92 after handily beating analysts? profit estimates as sales of Macintosh computers rose strongly.

Texas Instruments gave upbeat guidance on chip demand, sending its stock up 7.2% this week to $34.83. But relatively positive sentiment towards the sector began to wane on Friday.

Broadcom plunged 4.2% to $33.40 on Friday after the chipmaker fell short of analysts? sales forecasts.

JetBlue Airways slipped 3.6% to $10 after JPMorgan described the group as ?the most expensive airline money can buy? as it cut its rating on the company from ?neutral? to ?underweight?.

JPMorgan reduced its recommendation on a total of six airlines, including US Airways and Continental, citing concerns about over-supply and weaker demand.

Pressure on General Electric to pare its operations increased on Friday after Citigroup advocated selling the conglomerate?s NBC Universal media division.

Jeffrey Sprague, a Citigroup analyst, said the group ?needs to be more focused? and should sell NBC because it had ?no meaningful synergy with the rest of the portfolio?.

Shares in GE, down 1% this year, rose 2.8% to $36.84 on Friday.

European Markets - European equities edged lower this week as Spanish stocks slumped on fears the country?s 10-year housing boom was over.

The 3.1% weekly fall for Spain?s Ibex 35 to 14,403.6 underlined fears that the country?s red-hot property sector had reached a peak just as market observers were forecasting slowing demand due to an oversupply of new homes.

So, let's start this week's European review down on the Mediterranean and in Spain where Shares closed lower on continued profit-taking.

The IBEX-35 index closed down 207.4 points or 1.42% at 14,403.6, after trading in a range of 14,342-14,618, on turnover of 6.8  billion Eur.

Equities opened lower after a negative close on Wall Street and in Asian markets, continuing to lose ground over the morning, as the main bluechips saw profit-taking as well as property stocks, on ongoing concerns about the outlook for the sector in Spain.

Telefonica fell 0.26 Eur to 16.55, while BBVA was down 0.30 at 17.71 and Repsol YPF lost 0.69 to 24.32.

SCH shed 0.32 to 13.21, after reporting in-line first-quarter results. Investors were disappointed, however, that the bank did not provide any update on its role in the RBoS consortium's indicative bid for ABN Amro, with concerns still in place regarding a possible hike at the Spanish bank to finance any deal.

Bankinter dropped 0.35 to 63.35, as fears about the outlook for the mortgage loan market continued to hit the stock.

Endesa bucked the bluechip trend, up 0.13 at 40.30 and Altadis rising 0.33 to 48.63, while Ferrovial was also firm, up 0.20 at 78.50, after reporting robust first-quarter results on strong construction and services performances.

Other constructors and property issues were largely on offer, however, as investors were still spooked over the possibility of the real estate bubble bursting sooner rather than later.

ACS lost 0.28 to 45.72, Sacyr was down 0.59 at 39.95, Colonial lost 0.60 to 56.50, OHL lost 1.21 to 32.79 and Urbas fell 0.05 or 2.13% to 2.30.

Iberia remained firm on continued M&A talk, adding 0.11 or 2.94% to 3.85.

Other winners included Sogecable, up 0.23 at 30.20, after the shares were upgraded to 'overweight' from 'neutral' by JP Morgan, with a raised price target of 36.6 Eur from 25.9 Eur.

Amongst second-line gainers, Avanzit rose 0.08 to 7.46, on news that its Avanzit Telecom unit has reached an agreement with Telefonica to renew its contract with the telecoms giant for ten years for a total of 600  million Eur.

Neighbours Italy saw the Mibtel close lower, led by AEM on worries its planned merger with ASM Brescia will not go ahead.

The Mibtel index was down 0.34% to 33,892 points and the S&P/Mib was off 0.46% to 43,642.

Volume was an estimated 7.581  billion Eur.

Among utilities, AEM lost 1.66% to 2.85 Eur and possible merger partner ASM fell 1.99% to 4.88. Yesterday, AEM officials said a merger was not an obligation and there are still sticking points.

Brokers said they still expect the AEM/ASM merger to go ahead, while failure to do so would push down AEM. ASM was seen weaker on a report of a lower-than-expected AEM share swap ratio.

Terna fell 1.65% to 2.7125. Brokers said the drought and electricity shortages are not negative for Terna because the government is likely to favour additional investments, increasing the firm's earnings capacity.

Snam RG lost 1.15% to 4.715. Brokers pointed to the company's share buyback coming to an end as a negative factor.

Enel was down 0.72% to 8.295.

Eni lost 0.73% to 24.35

Alitalia fell 1.05% to 0.869, extending recent losses on negative broker comment. Analysts say they do not expect a privatisation bidder will offer much more than the reported 0.50 Eur/share initial offers.

Banks were mixed. Unicredito was down 1.41% to 7.57. Brokers continue to see it merging with another bank. One broker said it could digest both Societe Generale and Capitalia.

Capitalia lost 0.79% to 7.00. BMPS was down 0.84% to 4.945 after comments by the bank ruling out a domestic merger with a similar sized bank.

Generali rose 0.24% to 33.71. Brokers said they favour the strategy in its joint venture in east Europe with PPF, announced yesterday, adding Generali paid a high price in the same way it overpaid for Toro last year.

Fondiaria-SAI was down 0.26% to 38.85 after completing a bancassurance alliance with Banca Italease, up 1.99% to 45.17.

Pirelli gained 3.74% to 0.9295 and Telecom Italia was up 0.44% to 2.265. Reports say Telefonica and Italian banks are closer to proposing an offer for stakes in Pirelli unit Olimpia, which owns 18% of Telecom Italia.

And last but not least in the warmer part of Europe, to Greece where Greek shares closed sharply lower, led down by Alpha Bank, as market sentiment was hammered by worse-than-expected US GDP figures.

The ASE general index closed 1.2% lower at 4,792.6 while the bluechips sank even further, 1.5% lower to 2,561.8. Mid-caps slid 0.6% to 6,047.2, small caps were almost unchanged at 950.5, and the banking sector slid 1.8%.

Decliners far outnumbered advancers 172 to 87 while 59 were unchanged in solid trading volume of about 400  million Eur.

Alpha Bank led bluechip losses throughout the session and plummeted 4.8% to 23 Eur on their mixed first-quarter results announcement. While net profit was up 70% to 256.1  million Eur, in line with expectations, net interest income missed forecasts and led investors to re-examine other local banks.

Bank of Piraeus ended 2.1% lower to 26.9 Eur and EFG Eurobank closed down 1.3% to 30.8 Eur, on the negative sentiment in the banking sector.

Emporiki Bank, a unit of France's Credit Agricole also closed 2.1% lower to 21.66 Eur. The negative market sentiment overwhelmed the release of their ambitious 2007 to 2011 business plan where they said before tax profits will rise 30% annually to 600  million Eur by 2011.

Lottery operator OPAP fell 1.1% to 28.56 Eur on reports that it will declare the winner of its long-awaited IT and terminals tender in mid-July, as opposed to June.

Alternative telecom and ISP operator Forthnet dropped 1.2% to 11.28 Eur after Iceland controlled fund Novator placed 10.8% of the company at 10.5 Eur per share, which was an 8.06% discount to yesterday's closing price.

Construction holding company Hellenic Technodomiki outperformed the market, closing flat at 10.3 Eur on announcements that its partnership with Edison, from Italy, and Viohalco will build a 400 MW CCGT plant in Thisvi, Greece.

Heading to the opposite end of Europe and into Scandinavia where in Finland the Helsinki market closed lower, mirroring other major exchanges, as investors took profits on heavyweight stocks, though TietoEnator outperformed on the back of its first-quarter report.

The OMX Helsinki 25 index ended 0.48% lower at 3,181.01, and the OMX Helsinki all-share index closed down 0.46% to 10,836.28. Turnover was a little over 1.5  billion Eur.

TietoEnator provided relief to a mostly-weaker leaderboard, climbing 4.47% to 23.63 Eur.

FIM repeated its 'accumulate' rating on the stock, highlighting the IT services provider's consensus-beating quarterly numbers and 'excellent' organic sales growth.

But it said: 'The markets may still be feeling cautious about TietoEnator. Last year showed that problems can arise unexpectedly and fast.'

Elsewhere in the tech sector, Nokia fell 0.53% to 18.74 Eur, Perlos added 3.62% to 4.29 Eur and Elcoteq rose 1.27% to 6.40 Eur. eQ Bank has upped its rating on Elcoteq to 'accumulate' from 'reduce', saying it still believes the company is for sale.

In engineering, Metso slipped 1.49% to 40.99 Eur after its first-quarter results missed consensus expectations.

Kone fell 1.01% to 44.99 Eur, while Outokumpu gained 1.53% to 25.28 Eur.

Outokumpu has offloaded its 12% stake in Outotec, saying it will book a 142  million Eur gain on the sale.

Konecranes handed back initial gains as generally weak sentiment in the market overshadowed its better-than-expected January-March results. The stock finished down 0.20% at 25.50 Eur.

In telecoms, Elisa dropped 1.83% to 21.47 Eur and TeliaSonera fell 2.01% to 5.85 Eur.

In Norway, Oslo share prices closed lower, led down by a faltering oil price and Statoil, as production concerns took the edge off news of a 2  billion usd oil sands acquisition by Statoil in Canada.

The OSEBX benchmark index closed 3.31 points down at 475.23 and the OSEAX All Share index dropped 3.35 points to 537.63.

Total turnover amounted to 13.2  billion NKr.

Statoil lost 2.3% to 166.75 NKr, as negative market sentiment undermined news that it was said it had an agreed an all-cash offer to acquire Canada's North American Oil Sands Corporation (NAOSC), in a deal worth 2  billion usd, or 20 cad per share.

Also helping sap Statoil's strength was news, after the market closed on Thursday night, that Statoil will miss its 2007 production guidance after deciding to 'temporarily cease' production of gas and condensate from the Kvitebjorn field in the North Sea, cutting total Norwegian production by 190,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd).

The firm, which had previously forecast daily production of 1.3  million boepd during 2007, said it will now announce a new production forecast during the week commencing May 7.

Among other Norwegian energy producers Norsk Hydro slid 2.4% to 206 NKr.

Oil services companies also had a weaker time.

Eastern Drilling closed down 0.4% to 134. It posted a first quarter operating loss of 518  million usd, narrowing from an 802  million loss at the same point last year, as it continues to invest in new rig capacity.

Eastern Drilling is currently subject to a 135 NKr per share mandatory offer from peer Seadrill, which currently owns 63.96% of the firm, following a drawn-out bidding process. Seadrill ended the session 0.9% easier at 98.50.

Fred Olsen Energy, the Norwegian offshore drilling services firm, paid the penalty after it posted first quarter results below expectations at both the operating and pretax levels, on higher operating costs and reduced revenues from the Bredford Dolphin rig, which is undergoing scheduled renovations.

For the first quarter, Fred Olsen posted operating profits of 246.9  million NKr, down from 267.8  million last time, and below the 272  million consensus forecast of analysts polled by TDN Finans.

Fred Olsen closed down 1% at 297 NKr.

To Copenhagen in Denmark now where Danish shares closed lower, following losses in most European markets, with sentiment negatively affected by weaker-than-expected US GDP figures.

The OMXC20 index closed 2.92 points lower at 484.91 and the OMXCB Benchmark index shed 2.27 points to 467.00.

The OMXC All Share index was down 1.86 points at 463.71 on turnover of 4.58  billion DKr.

Carlsberg was up 1.00 DKr at 604.00, coming off earlier heights after gaining sharply on the announcement that its main stakeholder Carlsberg Foundation will reduce its minimum share capital holding requirement in the group to 25% from 51%.

SAS added 0.50 DKr to 124.50. The group said said the three-day wildcat strike amongst its Danish cabin crew has ended and that flights out of Copenhagen will now resume their normal schedule.

Nordea shed 0.75 DKr to 94.75. The bank's new group manager Christian Clausen said, according to Boersen, that the group is ready to make acquisitions in 3-4 years when it has implemented its newly announced reorganization of the bank.

Among other shares, Lundbeck was down 3.50 DKr at 131.50, Vestas Wind Systems shed 5.00 DKr to 363.00, FL Smidth gained 7.00 DKr to 418.00 and Novo Nordisk added 3.00 DKr to 544.00.

And bringing Scandinavia to a close we go to Sweden where in Stockholm shares closed slightly lower with Skanska and Scania finishing sharply higher, and SCA sharply lower after their respective first quarter results.

The OMX Stockholm index closed down 0.60% at 411.35 and the OMX Stockholm 30 was down 0.80% at 1,264.61. Turnover was 33.912  billion SKr.

Shares in Scania B closed up 30 SKr or 4.85 SKr at 649, after the truck and bus producer blew the market away with far stronger margins and order intake than expected, and said it expects demand to remain high throughout 2007.

Scania's first quarter profit after financials of 2.995  billion SKr, was up 42% from a year earlier and ahead of analysts' forecasts of 2.556  billion. Order intake increased 45% to 27.637  billion SKr.

Volvo B also closed up 2.15% at 130.75.

Skanska B also bucked the weak market closing up 3.18% at 154.00 after reporting better-than-expected results.

Ericsson B closed down 0.96% at 25.70 and Nokia down 1.01% at 170.75.

Among telecom operators, TeliaSonera closed down 2.29% at 53.25 and Tele2 B down 1.08% at 114.75.

Swedish Match closed up 3.13% at 123.75, on relief that the results were not as weak as feared, and the bullish outlook.

The rest of the market largely closed lower.

Among engineering stocks, Sandvik finished down 3.21% at 128.25, Atlas Copco A down 2.14% at 251.50, and SKF B down 1.86% at 145.

Elsewhere in the market, Nordea closed down 1.19% at 116.60, Boliden down 0.60% at 166.50, Electrolux B up 0.57% at 175.50, and Hennes & Mauritz B down 0.34% at 444.50.

Skating down to Switzerland now where in Zurich Share prices closed markedly lower, in line with other European markets, on widespread profit-taking, with chemical stocks and financials among the biggest fallers.

The Swiss Market Index closed 61.35 points lower at 9,419.90 and the Swiss Performance Index finished down 45.64 points at 7,609.91.

The Euro was slightly higher against the Swiss franc, at 1.6452 sfr, while the Dollar was little changed at 1.2087 sfr.

Top faller was Swisscom, down 23 sfr or 5.1% at 424.75 sfr with the Swiss telecom going ex-dividend with a payout of 17 sfr.

Chemicals stocks were also broadly lower, hit by rising oil prices with Clariant, off 0.60 sfr or 2.9% at 19.95 sfr, Givaudan, down 24 sfr or 2.1% at 1,132 sfr, and Ciba, down 1.40 sfr or 1.7% at 79.75 sfr ahead of first quarter results next Thursday.

Banking stocks handed back recent strong gains: UBS fell 1.30 sfr or 1.6% at 78.65, Julius Baer was 1.20 sfr or 1.4% lower at 85.2, while Credit Suisse shed 0.45 sfr at 94.6 sfr.

Among drugmakers, Novartis shed 0.2 sfr at 70.8, reversing earlier gains. Earlier today, the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) recommended European approval for its influenza vaccine Optaflu.

Novartis also reported that results from an independent study in Japan show use of its blood pressure drug Diovan, in combination with conventional therapy, can significantly reduce the risk of cardiovascular events and strokes.

Peer Roche dropped 2.80 sfr or 1.2% at 229.50 sfr.

Bucking the trend, Adecco gained 3.25 sfr or 4.1% at 83 sfr boosted by strong first quarter results from Dutch competitor Vedior.

Synthes was the second strongest gainer, adding 3.20 sfr or 2.1% at 157.20, after the Swiss medical device maker, in a surprise move, named former chief operating officer Michel Orsinger the new CEO of the group with immediate effect.

Synthes' former chief executive, Hansjoerg Wyss, will remain chairman of the board of directors.

Also outperforming were Nobel Biocare, up 6.25 sfr or 1.5% at 433.25 sfr, and ABB, trading 0.2 sfr higher at 24.5 sfr; both stocks extended yesterday's gains after reporting first-quarter results.

Nestle closed off 0.25 sfr at 479.75 sfr.

Into The Netherlands now where shares closed lower in Amsterdam but with Vedior outperforming the remainder of the Index.

The AEX closed 3.55 points or 0.66% lower at 530.49, after opening at 33.18 and trading in a range of 529.05-534.38.

Corporate Express led decliners, falling 2.28% at 9.85 Eur.

Fortis slipped 1.56% at 33.52 after it indicated it is prepared to make a public offer for ABN Amro in a consortium with two other banks.

Takeover target ABN Amro gained 1.24% at 36.75 as fellow financials ING and Aegon declined. ING fell 1.36% at 33.34 and Aegon shed 1.31% at 15.11.

On the mid-cap, Tele Atlas led decliners, down 2.90% at 15.40, after solid gains earlier this weak on the back of improved US market share for sector peer TomTom, which today gained 0.76% at 31.65.

DSM fell 1.16% at 34.99 Eur after it came out with a 'mixed bag' of first-quarter results, showing earnings at the bottom of the expected range.

ASML shed 0.79% to 19.98 after German peer Infineon reported disappointing second-quarter numbers that were hit by falling semiconductor prices.

On the AEX, Vedior led gainers, soaring 4.89% at 18.88 Eur after the staffing group reported better-than-expected first-quarter results and said it expected continued strong performance ahead for the second quarter.

AEX peer Randstad fell 1.29% at 57.55, while mid-capper USG gained 1.58% at 34.14 after its inline first-quarter results yesterday.

Getronics put on 0.60% at 6.75 amid news the IT services company is selling 70% of its shares in Getronics Japan to NTT Data Corp for 33  million Eur.

Ahold traded flat at 9.30, off an intra-day high of 9.54 amid news that CEO Anders Moberg will step down in July. Analysts were pleased CFO John Rishton will be acting CEO until a final decision on succession is announced later this year.

Crucell traded flat at 18.90 after the company said it had extended its research licence agreement for its PER-C6 cell line technology with Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics.

Into Germany now where in Frankfurt the German market was no different to the rest of Europe, closing down largely due to US Data.

The DAX was 8.90 points or 0.12% lower at 7,378.12 while the MDAX lost 31.99 points or 0.30% to 10,707.91.

The TecDAX dipped 2.65 points or 0.30% to 890.11, with DAX futures falling 10.50 points or 0.14% to 7,420.50.

Shares in Munich Re led bluechips lower, dropping 4.57 Eur or 3.38% to 130.58, after trading ex-dividend of 4.50 Eur per share.

Infineon dipped 0.27 Eur or 2.27% to 11.63, after the German chipmaker reported disappointing second-quarter numbers because of falling semiconductor prices.

Deutsche Boerse was also in negative territory, losing 3.20 Eur or 1.85% to 170.20.

Tui was close behind, shedding 0.31 Eur or 1.51% to 20.26.

Deutsche Post was the best performer on the index, rising 1.29 Eur or 5.30% to 25.65, amid rumours that The Children's Investment Fund (TCI) wants to pay 30.25 Eur per share for a stake of between 25 and 30% in the postal carrier.

Altana shares were also up, rising 1.70 Eur or 3.23% to 54.40.

Shares in MAN AG gained 2.39 Eur or 2.49% to 98.21.

Deutsche Postbank was also in the positive zone, rising 1.60 Eur or 2.29% to 71.40, as rumours that its parent company might sell its 50.1% stake were rekindled despite media reports to the contrary.

On the MDAX, Celesio was the worst performer, dipping 2.00 Eur or 3.64% to 53.02, as it corrected from strong gains yesterday, dealers said.

Wacker Chemie was at its heels, losing 3.01 Eur or 2.21% to 133.15.

Deutz meanwhile rose 0.85 Eur or 7.98% to 11.50, closely followed by IKB DT Industriebank, which gained 0.59 Eur or 1.96 Eur to 30.73.

Tele Atlas lost 0.62 Eur or 3.92% to 15.28 Eur on the TecDAX with Freenet rising 0.31 Eur or 1.38% to 22.81.

In Belgium, Brussels shares fared no better than the rest of Europe with the Bel 20 closing down 0.31%, down 14.55 to finish at 4643.43.

The main news coming out of Belgium yesterday surrounded Fortis being allowed to view the books of ABN Amro which is the subject to a hostile take-over bid from Royal Bank of Scotland.

Other than that, Belgian markets were pretty quiet.

And rounding off Europe this week we go to France where in Paris Share prices closed down Friday after flirting with six-year highs earlier in the day, as disappointing figures for GDP growth in the US weighed on sentiment prompting a wave of profit-taking.

The CAC-40 index finished down 13.67 points or 0.23% at 5,930.77 on volume of 6.0  billion Eur.

Among CAC-40 stocks, 11 closed higher and 29 closed lower.

On the Matif, May CAC-40 futures were trading 7.0 points or 0.09% lower at 5,899.0.

On the broader indices, the SBF-80 index closed down 17.54 or 0.24% at 7,318.92, while the SBF-120 finished down 10.07 or 0.23% at 4,342.46.

Thomson led the losers on the CAC-40, closing down 0.23 Eur or 1.61% at 14.03 and adding to yesterday's losses which followed a fall in first quarter sales and the news that the group expects no major change in business trends in the second quarter.

Vallourec followed suit, shedding 2.58 or 1.23% to end at 206.45 as investors locked in profits from recent speculation-fuelled gains.

Alcatel-Lucent was 0.08 or 0.82% lower at 9.72, adding to yesterday's losses but still up on the week after a slide in first quarter sales and earnings was accompanied by news the group's order book is growing again.

On the second line, Eiffage fell sharply, finishing down 3.81 or 3.71% at 98.83. The share has shed more than 7% since the start of the week as investors consider it increasingly unlikely Sacyr Vallehermoso will make a cash bid for its French rival, and are even sceptical over whether it will succeed with its all-paper offer.

On the upside, Societe Generale closed up 3.37 or 2.22% at 155.40 after an early afternoon surge sparked by renewed rumours of a buyout by BNP Paribas.

Also up, Veolia Environnement finished 1.58 or 2.69% ahead at 60.42 as the market welcomed news it is to buy German waste management group Sulo for 1.45  billion Eur.

Confirming a report in today's Die Welt, Veolia said in a statement that the acquisition will give its Veolia Environmental Services division annual sales in Germany of around 1.5  billion Eur, or 16% of the unit's total revenues.

On the second line, Dassault Systemes soared 2.75 or 6.77% to end at 43.35 after a 5% increase in net profit in first quarter 2007 came in ahead of market consensus, prompting UBS to reiterate its 'buy' stance.

Net profit in the period was 32.9  million Eur, up from 31.3  million a year ago and marginally ahead of the 31.60  million anticipated by analysts, according to estimates compiled by Thomson Financial.

Casino Guichard-Perrachon added 1.12 or 1.44% to finish at 79.12, helped by a target price upgrade at ING to 88 Eur from 76.81.

UK Market - Severn Trent defied the downward trend in London on Friday as traders built positions ahead of a key regulatory ruling.

Next week, the Competition Commission’s decision is due over a merger between Mid Kent Water and South East Water.

If the deal is waved through – and this is by no means a given as industry regulator Ofwat is opposed to it – then it could trigger further activity in the sector.

With Cazenove upgrading its rating on Severn Trent to “outperform”, the shares closed firmed 0.1 per cent higher to £14.65.

That contrasted with the wider market, where leading shares took a tumble.

Unsettled by data that showed the US economy had grown at its slowest rate in four years during the first quarter, the FTSE 100 closed 50.7 points, or 0.8 per cent, lower at 6,418.7, while the FTSE 250 eased 37.4 points, or 0.3 per cent, to 11,903.5.

Scottish & Newcastle was the session’s best performing FTSE 100 stock, rising 6.7 per cent to 625p amid hopes of a merger with Carlsberg.

Yesterday, the charitable foundation that controls the Danish brewer revealed that it had applied for permission to amend its charter so that it can hold 51 per cent of the voting rights, but only 25 per cent of the capital.

“This is a highly significant move which, in our view, is primarily designed to allow Carlsberg to merge with or bid for Scottish & Newcastle in due course,” Cazenove said.

ITV added 2.2 per cent to 118.4p after the Office of Fair Trading said the purchase by BSkyB, unchanged at 568½p, of a 17.9 per cent stake in the commercial broadcaster raised competition concerns that warranted further investigation.

Traders said Sky could be forced to divest its stake and were that to happen then Virgin Media could return with another offer for ITV.

Elsewhere, private equity bid rumours swirled around Kingfisher, which rose 0.9 per cent to 270p.

GlaxoSmithKline slipped 1.7 per cent to £14.40 after Morgan Stanley said it was concerned that an impending US Supreme Court decision could make it more difficult for the drugs industry to defend its patents.

Royal Bank of Scotland faded 1.5 per cent to £19.40 after indicating that it was prepared to launch a hostile bid for ABN Amro.

That news had a positive impact on Barclays, however. Its shares rose 1 per cent to 725½p as traders took the view that failure to win ABN would leave Barclays vulnerable to a bid.

Away from the blue chips, Charter was marked 4.3 per cent higher at £10.32 in the wake of very strong results from Lincoln Electric, one of its main competitors in the welding market. UBS responded to the figures by increasing its target price for Charter to £12 from £10.20.

Group 4 Securicor gained 3.5 per cent to 236¼p after a block of 62.6m shares, or nearly 5 per cent, changed hands at 226½p.

However, speculation that Centaurus, the activist hedge fund, had been adding to its 5 per cent holding was said to be wide of the mark. Traders think Friday's trade was merely Centaurus switching its holding from one prime broker to another.

CRH eased 1.3 per cent to €31.85 despite talk that John Magnier and JP McManus have been developing a stake in the Irish building materials group.

Berkeley Group outperformed the rest of the housebuilding sector, rising 2.9 per cent to £17.07 on speculation that the company is to accelerate plans to return cash to shareholders.

In the same sector, Barratt Developments shed 3.1 per cent to £10.81 as arbitrage funds unwound positions following the completion of its £2.2bn acquisition of rival Wilson Bowden.

Japan & Asia Pacific - Shares across the Asia-Pacific region closed lower on profit taking ahead of holidays in Japan and China next week.

Tokyo shares finished lower as investors squared positions before Japan enters the Golden Week break beginning this weekend, dealers said.

Weak economic data released this morning also weighed on sentiment.

Japanese financial markets are open for only two trading days next week, so market watchers expect trade to be thin, with the Nikkei 225 seen moving within a narrow range of from 17,300 to 17,500 points.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed down 28.76 points or 0.17% at 17,400.41, off a low of 17,299.37. For the week, the index dropped 0.3%.

The TOPIX index of all first-section issues fell 2.41 points or 0.14% to 1,701.00, off a low of 1,694.04. For the week, the index fell 0.53%.

Soft data released Friday morning, including March consumer inflation data and production data, weighed on stocks in early trade, with the index moving within a tight range in the afternoon as investors generally stayed on the sidelines.

Investors adjusted their positions ahead of a long holiday. The market will be closed next Monday, Thursday and Friday for public holidays. Trade is expected to be thin and share prices are seen staying rangebound next week.

Hong Kong shares were weaker in afternoon trade as investors locked in profits amid worries that China may announce further tightening measures during the long Labor Day holiday next week.

The Hang Seng Index closed down 140.79 points at 20,526.50. Turnover was heavy at 64.17 billion Hong Kong Dollars (8.2 billion US).

In mainland China, A-shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed lower on profit-taking ahead of the May 1 holidays with property and steel stocks losing ground.

The markets will only be open on Monday next week.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A- and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, closed down 23.20 points, or 0.61%, at 3,759.87, after moving between 3,720.60 and 3,802.92.

The key index rose 4.90% for the week. Turnover rose to 162.82  billion yuan from 142.17  billion in the previous session.

The speculation in CITIC Bank's A-share debut indicates that the sentiment has evolved to 'irrational' from 'optimistic', and it might be better to lock in gains for the moment.

CITIC Bank Co Ltd closed up 96.03% at 11.37 yuan from its IPO price of 5.80, after opening at 9.21 yuan on its trading debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Analysts said the bank's A-share price was significantly over-valued.

Property developers and steelmakers were under pressure from profit-taking, with China Merchants Property Development Co Ltd down 1.44 yuan or 3.79% at 36.58.

Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd was down 1.31 yuan or 4.08% at 30.76. China Vanke Co Ltd was down 0.61 yuan or 3.29% at 17.95.

Wuhan Steel Processing Co Ltd was down 0.41 yuan or 3.53% at 11.19.

Angang New Steel Co Ltd was down 0.71 yuan or 3.94% at 17.29. Maanshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd was down 0.18 yuan or 2.15% at 8.19.

Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co Ltd was down 1.69 yuan or 6.20% at 25.59 even though its first quarter net profit surged 760%.

China Merchants Bank Co Ltd was down 0.54 yuan or 2.69% at 19.50. It said first quarter net profit rose to 2.46  billion yuan from 1.43  billion the year earlier after it booked strong growth in net interest income.

Industrial Bank Co Ltd, in which Hong Kong's Hang Seng Bank holds a 15.98% stake, was down 0.81 yuan or 2.50% at 31.58 after its first quarter net profit came in at 1.408  billion yuan.

China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd was down 0.18 yuan or 2.63% at 6.66. It said it cut its net loss for the first quarter to 510.86  million yuan from 955.12  million a year earlier, thanks to higher passenger traffic.

Textile firms were boosted by rotational interest, with Hunan Huasheng Co Ltd up by its 10% daily limit at 12.95 yuan.

Youngor Group Co Ltd was up 10% at 25.25 yuan. Ningbo Shanshan Co Ltd was also up 10% at 16.21.

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co Ltd was up 0.14 yuan or 1.13% at 12.53 after swinging back to net profit in the first quarter.

Ping An Insurance (Group) Co  was up 5.09 yuan or 8.70% at 63.60 after reporting net profit in the three months to March of 3.958  billion yuan.

The Shanghai A-share Index was down 24.84 points or 0.62% at 3,950.84 on turnover of 161.70  billion yuan and the Shenzhen A-share Index was down 9.63 points or 0.87% at 1,098.40 on turnover of 77.08  billion yuan.

The FTSE/Xinhua China A 50 Index was down 134.90 points at 12,975.94. The FTSE/Xinhua China A 200 Index was down 75.33 points to 9,734.23 and the FTSE/Xinhua China A 600 Index was down 47.11 points at 8,831.31.

In Singapore share prices fell 0.24% on profit-taking ahead of the weekend. The Straits Times Index fell 8.29 points to 3,398.6. Volume totalled 2.55 billion shares worth 2.11 billion Singapore Dollars ($1.39 billion). ST Engineering fell 0.16 to 3.54.

Malaysian share prices closed 0.66% higher following a record-setting rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average overnight. The composite index closed up 8.80 points at 1,324.77. Volume traded was at 1.47 billion shares, which valued at 2.79 billion ringgit. Tenaga fell 0.20 ringgit to 11.60.

Thailand's market closed 0.63% higher, bucking a sluggish regional market, as foreign investors bought banking and energy stocks on bargain hunting. The composite index rose 4.32 points to 695.11 on turnover of 1.3 billion shares worth 8.8 billion baht (254 million Dollars). Some 1,000 police were to be deployed for security. PTT rose 2.00 baht to 216.00.

To India now where in Mumbai share prices fell 2.25%, snapping five straight days of gains, on weak Asian trends as investors locked in gains. The Mumbai 30-share Sensex fell 320.3 points to 13,908.58. India?s largest private sector Reliance Industries and largest telecom firm Bharti Airtel dropped after earnings data was announced. Bharti fell 35.8 rupees to 826.25. afp

Seoul shares closed lower on profit taking by institutions, retreating from yesterday's record high, with sentiment undercut by weak output data and investors turning cautious ahead of the weekend.

According to official data, South Korea's production expanded 3.1% year-on-year in March, largely due to stronger production of semiconductor chips, machinery, display panels and parts. The figure missed the market consensus estimate of a 5.5% rise.

The KOSPI index closed down 10.61 points or 0.68% at 1,542.52, after moving between 1,537.37 and 1,553.23, The benchmark index gained 9.34 points for this week.

In Taiwan share prices closed at the day?s low, down 0.63%, as early gains driven by another record in the Dow Jones Industrial Average overnight gave way to profit-taking. The weighted index closed down 50.62 points at 7,949.42 points on turnover was 91.78 billion Taiwan Dollars ($2.76 billion). Bellwether Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) reflected the mood of the market, failing to boost buying interest despite the company?s positive guidance for the current second quarter. TSMC closed down 0.90 at 69.00 Dollars.

Australian stocks have succumbed to profit-taking, ending down as the key resource and banking sectors slid lower. Australian shares fell 1% on Friday to a two-week closing low as investors turned cautious ahead of key US economic growth data, with top miners leading losses following a fall in base metal prices.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index ended 60.6 points lower at 6151.6, while the all ordinaries fell 56.8 points to 6141.

On the Sydney Futures Exchange, the June share price index contract dropped 41 points to 6193 on a volume of 17,524 contracts.

In banking, ANZ lost 42 cents to $30.46, Westpac shed 29 cents to $27.04, Commonwealth dropped six cents to $53.04 and NAB backtracked three cents to $43.16.

Meanwhile in resources, BHP Billiton reversed 83 cents to $29.39 and Rio Tinto was $2.19 poorer at $82.70.

gold producers were mixed, Newcrest up 20 cents at $23.80, Lihir slipped six cents to $2.96.

Energy interests were mixed also, with Woodside Petroleum down 10 cents at $39.25, but Santos gained 10 cents to $11.25.

Cement maker and takeover target Rinker Group warned that a depressed US housing market may cut into its profit in the 2008 financial year, but its shares ended two cents up at $18.66.

Travel group Flight Centre also managed to gain eight cents to $16.41 after reporting that nine-month profit is running well ahead of expectations.

New Zealand stocks rose slightly Friday in relatively quiet trade as the market continued to digest the effects of the central banks' interest rate rise Thursday.

The benchmark NZX-50 index closed up 6.5 points, or 0.2%, to 4,181.44.

Medical device maker Fisher & Paykel Healthcare added 0.8% to NZ$3.65 as the New Zealand Dollar moved back toward $0.7400 on Reserve Bank comments that the currency is unjustifiably high.

Tourist attraction and motor home rental operator Tourism Holdings extended its gains, advancing 4.6% to NZ$2.27 following its earnings upgrade Thursday.

Fellow tourism sector stocks benefited from the positive sentiment, with national carrier Air New Zealand adding 2.2% to NZ$2.85, Auckland International Airport gaining 2.5% to NZ$2.48 and Wellington airport majority shareholder Infratil up 0.3% to NZ$5.87.

Stock exchange operator NZ Exchange gained 2.5% to NZ$10.04 after posting first-quarter results 48% higher than the same period a year ago and advising its mid-term outlook is positive.

Discount retailer The Warehouse fell 2.5% to NZ$6.92 as the New Zealand Commerce Commission delayed until May 25 its ruling on whether supermarket rivals Woolworths and Foodstuffs can bid for 100% of the company.

Home appliance maker Fisher & Paykel Appliances lost 0.8% to NZ$3.57 following its decision to move some manufacturing to Thailand to save between NZ$10 and NZ$15 million a year.

Commodities - Crude prices rose strongly on Friday as geopolitical risks returned to the market after Saudi security forces arrested scores of terrorist suspects involved in plotting attacks on oil facilities.

Talk that US intelligence services had brought forward estimates of when Tehran would have nuclear-bomb-grade material ready also stirred fear of supply disruption from Iran.

ICE June Brent crude rose 58 cents to $68.23 a barrel on Friday, up 2.6% over the week. Nymex June West Texas Intermediate added 90 cents at $65.96 a barrel, up 4% this week.

Demand fundamentals remain strongly supportive. Concerns over US petrol supplies approaching summer were heightened by a larger-than-expected fall in US gasoline stocks, which have declined for 11 consecutive weeks. Nymex May RBOB gasoline increased 8% to $2.3070 a gallon this week.

US grain prices retreated yesterday after a volatile week of trading in which concerns over the impact of weather conditions on spring corn planting and winter wheat harvesting dominated sentiment.

In Chicago, May corn dipped 2¾ cents to $362 a bushel on Friday as improving weather was expected next week. But farmers have fallen behind with planting, prompting traders to say that the market was in a transitional phase that would last until there was clarification on how well plantings had gone.

Planting conditions for soyabeans remain favourable but global stockpiles are plentiful and a huge harvest from South America is being exported aggressively so US farmers face fierce price competition. May soyabeans fell 0.6 cents to $1.93 a bushel on Friday.

May wheat dropped 8¾ cents to $4.98¼ on Friday. The USDA is due to provide a vital update on the extent of frost damage on the winter wheat crop on Monday.

The threat of strike action next week in Peru, a major producer of copper, zinc, gold and silver, provided support for base metals.

Copper breached the key $8,000 a tonne level but failure to hold above that prompted technical-led selling. Copper fell 2.6% to $7,745 a tonne this week.

After reaching a contract high of 415,200 a tonne, tin fell 3.1% to $13,250 a tonne this week, helped by an improvement in the supply situation in Indonesia.

Currencies - The Dollar fell to a record low against the Euro on Friday after data revealed that the US economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the first quarter.

The Dollar had been weak against the Euro all week and on Wednesday, following the release of below-forecast US housing data, was within touching distance of its all-time low.

US gross domestic product figures on Friday finally pushed the Dollar down to a fresh record of $1.3682 against the Euro, surpassing the previous all-time trough of $1.3670 that it hit in December 2004.

Growth had slowed to 1.3% in the first quarter, its weakest pace for four years and below expectations for a 1.8 per rise.

The Dollar has been pressurised significantly by softer US growth, concerns over the housing market, and the increased possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year.

The Dollar clawed back some of its losses later in Friday?s session to stand at $1.3630, down 0.3% on the week.

The Dollar also fell 0.3% to SFr1.2040 against the Swiss franc and eased 0.1% to £2.0030 against the pound over the week.

In contrast, the Euro was supported by a robust Ifo survey of German business confidence, which rose to its second-highest level since 1990 in April.

Analysts said the index cemented expectations that the European Central Bank would raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4% at its June meeting.

Germany revised up its 2007 growth forecasts and moved to ease fears over the impact of a strong Euro on the economy. ?The German economy is obviously coping well with the current Euro/Dollar exchange rate,? said Michael Glos, the German economics minister.

?If there were further strong gains it would mean some risks but currently, and this can be seen in the performance of exports, it?s bearable.?

Over the week, the Euro rose 0.5% to £0.6818 against the pound and climbed 0.2% to SFr1.6450 against the Swiss franc.

The yen fell to a record low against the Euro as Japanese economic data disappointed. The Japanese currency regained some poise after the Bank of Japan, which as expected left interest rates unchanged at 0.5% after its monthly meeting, said the economy was still on track to deliver expansion and normalisation in prices.

More broad-based yen weakness looks likely over the coming week or so.

Over the week, the yen fell 1.1% to Y163.15 against the Euro, 0.6% to Y119.40 against Dollar and 0.6% to Y239.10 against sterling on Friday.

The New Zealand Dollar fell 0.8% over the week to $0.7420 against the Dollar as investors reasoned that the country?s interest rate cycle had peaked after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates by 25bp to 7.75% this week.

The Australian Dollar also tumbled, 0.6% to $0.8320 against its US counterpart over the week.

One of the biggest movers on the day Friday was the Canadian Dollar, which rose to a seven-month high against its US counterpart. The US Dollar fell 0.6% to C$1.1155

Closing out currencies this week, as always ending with the RMB where the yuan finished at a new record high of 7.7135 to the Dollar on the over-the-counter (OTC) market Friday, up from 7.7263 Thursday. On the exchange-traded market, the RMB finished at 7.7115, also a new high and up from 7.7288 Thursday.

China - Baidu.com, China's top search engine, is on a roll.

The company announced its first-quarter revenue and profit more than doubled thanks to skyrocketing demand for online ads.

Baidu reported first-quarter revenue of 275.6 million renminbi ($35.6 million as of March 31, the last day of the period being reported), an increase of 103% over the same period last year. Net income rose 143%, to 85.5 million renminbi. The company credit the increases to rising demand for online ads from Chinese companies. Baidu's results come despite earlier concerns of softness in ad sales due to the annual Chinese New Year holiday, when businesses across China shut down.

Looking ahead, Baidu expects this growth to continue, with second-quarter revenue to show gains of up to 41% on a sequential basis.

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According to the China Gold Association, China's gold production has grown from 181 tonnes in 2001 to 240.08 tonnes in 2006, an average annual growth rate of 5.6% and all time year-on year high.

Following the reform of the gold system, China's gold industry entered a new era in gold development. The gold industrial system was increasing perfected. A number of large and medium-sized enterprises sprang up rapidly and flourished. Bullion investment and paper gold became more common. China's gold market is gradually changing.

In the meantime, China's gold and jewelry market developed rapidly. The quantity of sales has increased at an annual rate of approximately 20%. China is now the third biggest consumer of gold in the world. Total sales of gold and jewelry were valued at more than 1,400 billion yuan ($181 billion), and exports were valued at $5.49 billion. China has become one of the largest gold and jewelry trade centers in the world.

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Shares in China Citic Bank nearly doubled in their first day of trading in Shanghai on Friday and also rose strongly in Hong Kong after the biggest initial public offering of the year so far.

Citic Bank raised $5.4bn from the flotation, which was only the second to be conducted simultaneously on the Hong Kong and Shanghai exchanges, following the $21.9bn listing by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China last year, the largest IPO ever.

In spite of concerns about the high valuations for Chinese stocks, especially in the financial sector, shares in China?s seventh-largest bank surged 96% in Shanghai, rising from an IPO price of Rmb5.80 to Rmb11.37, making it the latest in a series of mainland flotations to earn dramatic premiums on the first day of trading. In Hong Kong the shares rose from HK$5.86 to HK$6.68, an increase of 14%.

Chen Xiaoxian, president of Citic Bank, said that the debut in Shanghai had been stronger than expected, although some analysts put this down to the relatively small size of the mainland tranche, which was less than half the size of the Hong Kong allotment.

Mainland shares are trading at considerable premiums to those of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong at the moment, boosted by the flood of new money coming into the market from retail investors and the relative scarcity of high-quality companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges.

However, mainland shares have risen so sharply in recent months that many investors and analysts have started to predict an imminent correction.

On Thursday, the vice-chairman of the country?s social security fund and one of the most influential investors in China warned that the market was ?defying gravity?.

Gao Xiqing, vice-chairman of the National Council for Social Security Fund, said the fund was reducing its exposure to mainland equities.

The IPO values Citic Bank?s shares at 2.75 times book value, which is well above the levels for most large international banks but in line with the valuations of other listed Chinese banks such as ICBC and Bank of China.

Bookrunners for the Citic Bank IPO were Lehman Brothers, Citigroup, HSBC, China International Capital Corporation and Citic Securities.

Summary       As mentioned at the outset of today's review, I feel that next week will see markets turn sharply negative and this will of course be compounded the following week by the fact that Bank Holidays and major holidays in Japan and China will not allow those particular markets to react until week commencing 7 May.

So all told, the picture we see next week will be somewhat false and the true extent of market sentiment will not be felt until 7 May - and then I think we can brace ourselves for the expected negativity.

I hope that you all have a very pleasant weekend and for those fortunate enough to be taking a break during the Chinese Labour Week holidays coming up, safe travels.

As always, I will keep you posted as/when developments occur but I expect the markets to be relatively quiet - but negative - in the shortened coming week.

Market Review Newsletter Compiled By

Adrian Page

Managing Director

Financial Page International

Saturday 28 April 2007

www.fpi.hk or www.fpi.cn

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