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Global Weekly Markets Review - 28 July 2007
Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen,
So, I was 3 months too early in my prediction .... I said everyone should be out of equities by April and the crash never started until July - but looking on the bright side, at least all those that listened were actually out of Equities this week when the rot set in! Weren't you?
It never took rocket science to predict that the markets were positioned way too high given the underlying credit concerns, M & A rumour driving markets relentlessly higher and weaker fundamentals across in the US.
But now that it has happened, let's look a little closer at the damage.
In the S&P 500 index experienced its worst performance since September 2002 as heightened credit market concerns battered stocks.
London saw all this year’s gains wiped out this week.
There were also heavy falls in Asian stock markets, European stocks were lower and corporate debt markets saw further sell-offs.
Where will it all end?
Personally - and you all know that I am not afraid to say what I feel - I think we may see a small bounce or two next week but I see the US market wiping probably 15% at least off of its value. The UK only needs another 5% to have achieved that.
But there is a bright side I think; Europe. At the moment, I don't see Europe's declines being anywhere near those that are coming for the US. Europe is not US Dollar reliant; good corporate earnings figures are coming out and the fundamentals are not so bad from where I am sitting.
But to give you a better view of the depth of decline globally this week, let's go straight to the numbers:
Bad earnings news from the housing sector continued as DR Horton, the homebuilder, reported its first ever quarterly loss. Its shares were down 11.7% for the week at $16.92. Beazer Homes also posted a $123m quarterly loss, sending its shares down 20.2% at $15.66. This followed second quarter losses reported late on Wednesday from Pulte Homes, whose shares sank 10% to $19.84. Ryland Group shares fared better than the rest of the sector but still ended the week down 3.9% at $33.94. Countrywide, the largest US mortgage lender, fell 12.2% to $30.09 after it posted a 33% slide in second quarter profit. The weaker housing market prompted it to lower the 2007 outlook. Shares in recently floated private equity and hedge fund group Fortress Investment Group suffered a bout of investor uncertainty last week. It was down 10.5per cent for the week at $19.95. Financials were once again hit by continuing subprime concerns. Bear Stearns shares were down 7.1% at $125.10 while Citigroup lost 6.3% to close at $47.53, JPMorgan fell 5.3% to $45.02 and Goldman Sachs fell 4.5 per to $196.68. CME Group reported a 15% rise in quarterly results as the merger between the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings and the Chicago Board of Trade was completed. Its shares roe 1% to $562.54. By the close of trading in New York, the S&P 500 index was down 4.9% for the week at 1,458.95 while the Nasdaq Composite Index was 4.7% lower at 2,562.24. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 4.2% lower at 13,265.47 for the week. In earnings news, Chevron reported a 24% rise in second quarter profit, but its shares suffered from the prevailing bearish mood, ending the week down 5.7% at $86.88. Investors received upbeat news on the economy on Friday, as the Commerce Department reported that the nation’s economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace during the second quarter. Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.4% annual rate for the second quarter, while the first quarter was downwardly revised to 0.6% from an original estimate of 0.7%. Banks are struggling to clear a backlog of debt deals that are required to fund this year’s record level of buy-outs. Debt financing for the Chrysler and AllianceBoots buy-outs ran into difficulties earlier in the week and investors say the huge pipeline of deals will not ease until the mood in credit stabilises. In other corporate news, Boeing raised its full-year earnings forecast and reported net income of $1.35 a share in the second quarter compared with a loss of $160m, or 21 cents, a year earlier, when the company paid a $615m government fine. Its shares rose 0.8% to $104.74. ConocoPhillips and Colgate-Palmolive also reported better-than-expected second quarter results, buoying sentiment during the week although ConocoPhillips finished the week down 6.3% at $80.84. Colgate-Palmolive shares rose 2% to $68.99. |
The FTSE Eurofirst 300 fell 5% during the week, to close at 1,520.06; its lowest level for almost four months. The index of leading European shares has fallen 6.6% in a fortnight. The Xetra Dax closed down 5.4% at 7,451.68 while in Paris the Cac ended the week 5.3% lower at 5,643.96. So, let's start in Germany where Frankfurt stocks ended lower with Metro, Linde and Deutsche Postbank leading decliners but the blue chip board cut its losses as Volkswagen soared on the back of its consensus-beating first-half figures and an upward revision of its outlook. The DAX was down 57.28 points or 0.76% at 7,451.68, after trading between 7,372.89 points and 7,535.37 points. The MDAX was up 18.11 points or 0.17% at 10,552.31 points, while the TecDAX lost 8.21 points or 0.91% at 891.24 points. DAX futures were down 13.00 points or 0.17% at 7,487.00 while bund futures shed 0.04 or 0.04% to 112.99 points. Metro led losers, down 2.01 Eur or 3.46% at 56.09 ahead of next Wednesday's publication of second-quarter figures, which analysts said would show a decline in profits. Linde was the second worst performer, sliding lower 2.29 or 2.66% at 83.74. It is expected to unveil on Monday a decline in second-quarter profits due to costs related to its takeover of BOC Group, analysts said. Net profit is expected to fall 112 million Eur from 136 million Eur a year earlier, according to the average estimate of 12 analysts. Deutsche Postbank, which is disclosing quarterly results next Monday, pared 1.49 or 2.60% at 55.71. Analysts said they expect second quarter to show a subdued performance and which will not prompt them to reassess their valuation of the stock. Deutsche Boerse, also reporting second quarter figures next week, lost 2.05 or 2.41% at 82.85. Analysts expect the Frankfurt Stock Exchange operator to report record-setting second-quarter figures on Tuesday, due to high volatility on the stock market last quarter. Bucking the trend, Volkswagen rose 4.28 Eur or 3.55% at 124.83, ending the day as the best performer on the blue chip board. The company reported consensus-busting first-half figures and revised upward its forecast this year. RWE closed down 0.35 or 0.45% at 78.05 after a brief upward spike late afternoon, which was triggered by market talk that Electricite de France is interested in buying the electricity business of the German utility and may well make a bid for the whole company. Infineon added 0.01 or 0.08% at 12.21 after releasing third-quarter figures which were largely in line with expectations. Siemens, up 0.69 or 0.73% at 94.79, benefited from a Deutsche Bank note which raised the price target of the company to 130 Eur per share from 120. Boersen-Zeitung newspaper reported too that Siemens wrote down the value of its Enterprise Networks unit by 355 million Eur in preparation for a sale of the unit. Over on the MDAX, Aareal Bank led outperformers, adding 1.90 Eur or 5.51% at 36.40 while Heidelberger Druck lost 1.66 or 4.53% at 35.00. GPC was down 0.85 Eur or 9.39% at 8.20 on the TecDAX while Carl-Zeiss was up 0.56 Eur or 3.80% at 15.29. Neighbours Belgium fared no better as the market ended down with Solvay sinking after the chemical and pharmaceutical group posted second quarter results showing a 21% drop in net profit. At the close, the Bel 20 was down 27.98 points or 0.64% at 4,341.99. Solvay was down 6.25 Eur or 5.44% at 108.67 Eur. The group's net decreased to 195.0 million Eur from 246.0 million, with Solvay's share of net income at 183.0 million Eur down from 236.0 million, below the analysts' estimates range of 199.0-202.0 million Eur. Sales grew to 2.436 billion Eur from 2.388 billion in the second quarter of 2006, matching analysts' forecasts of 2.425-2.452 billion. Colruyt was down 1.39 Eur or 0.91% at 151.30 Eur. After the market closed, the discount supermarket group said its three month sales from April 1 increased 6.7% to 1.37 billion Eur from 1.28 billion last year. Retail sales grew 5.8% to 1.06 billion and wholesale, foodservice sales grew 8.6% to 227.6 million. Other activities rose 13.6% to 81.9 million Eur from 72.0 million. UCB was down 0.31 Eur or 0.78% at 39.19 Eur. The pharmaceutical group was upgraded to 'outperform' from 'neutral' at Exane BNP Paribas following a first half earnings report yesterday. Utility Suez fell 0.28 Eur or 0.73% to 38.15 Eur. For the heavyweight financials, Dexia was down 0.13 Eur or 0.59% at 21.76 Eur, Fortis was down 0.05 Eur or 0.17% at 29.11 Eur and KBC Group rose 0.90 Eur or 0.96% to 94.60 Eur. KBC said it won approval from Russia's central bank to buy a 95% stake in Absolut Bank. Outside the Bel 20, Deceuninck was down 0.73 Eur or 3.34% at 21.10 Eur. The door and window manufacturer posted first half results which showed a net profit in line with analysts' expectations. Net for the first half came in at 2.3 million Eur against a net loss of 9.8 last year, in line with analysts' expectations of a net figure seen between a loss of 0.9 million Eur and a 4.5 million Eur profit. Car distribution and rental group D'Ieteren fell 17.36 Eur or 5.65% to 289.74 Eur. GIMV was down 0.22 Eur or 0.44% at 50.08 Eur. After the market closed, the venture capital group said it has sold its 12.0% stake in Belgium's frozen vegetables manufacturer and distributor Dujardin Foods to Netherlands-based NPM Capital. The sale will have a positive impact of 6.4 million Eur or 0.27 Eur per share on the stock's equity value of March 31. Across to The Netherlands now where Amsterdam shares closed lower on Wall Street's negative and jittery trade. The AEX closed down 6.35 points or 1.19% to 526.69 after opening at 528.55 and trading in a range of 525.78-535.94. DSM was down 2.92% to 36.62 Eur at midday, with investors surrendering to the market gloom rather than looking at ING raising its price target on DSM to 42 Eur from 40 and JP Morgan upping its target to 40 Eur from 39. Ahold went 2.42% lower to 9.27 and TomTom weakened 2.39% to 44.11. Heavyweight Royal Dutch Shell closed down 2.14% to 28.33 and oil peer SBM Offshore was off 1.41% to 29.43 while midcapper Fugro proved the exception, up 0.52% to 48.41. Financials closed down, with Fortis down 2.05% to 29.14, Aegon falling 1.20% to 13.13, and ING off 1.34% to 30.88 after the bank said it agreed to buy Santander's Latin American pension operations for 960 million Eur. ABN Amro slid 1.02% to 35.10 with market sources saying Monday's results will be overshadowed by nervousness about a likely announcement on the Dutch bank's stance towards the drawn-out takeover battle surrounding it. On the midcap, Aalberts was down 6.22% to 18.84, Wereldhave fell 5.69% to 88.80, Crucell shed 5.50% to 15.28 and ASMI went 2.58% lower to 20.36 ahead of results expected Monday. TNT was the sole AEX gainer, rising 0.64% to 31.29 ahead of results expected Monday. On the midcap, Univar was up 1.16% to 50.60, Boskalis Westminster put on 0.89% to 28.25, LogicaCMG added 0.89% at 2.27 and BAM was 0.74% higher to 20.48. Small cap OPG lost 3.27% to 23.75 after the company gave a poor full year outlook when releasing its second quarter results. Into France now where Paris Share prices closed lower as investors remained cautious after Thursday's slide on credit fears, while more mixed corporate earnings encouraged the downward trend. The CAC-40 index finished down 31.09 points or 0.55% at 5,643.96. Among CAC-40 stocks, 12 closed higher and 28 closed lower. On the Matif, August CAC-40 futures were trading at 5,669.5. On the broader indices, the SBF-80 index closed down 44.18 or 0.64% at 6,834.44, while the SBF-120 ended down 23.25 or 0.56% at 4,120.56. Michelin was the biggest blue-chip faller, ending down 3.48 Eur or 3.72% at 90.08. The tyre maker's first half results were in line with expectations, but it has been pushed lower this week by declines among vehicle makers, notably European truck producers, amid concerns about their own outlooks and the implications for tyre sales. Capgemini dropped 1.17 or 2.27% to 50.33 after analysts were disappointed by its first half results and full year sales outlook. Deutsche Bank analysts said that 'guidance of 9.0% sales growth, (down) from 11.5% in the first half obviously infers a second half slowdown'. The broker kept its 'hold' recommendation and 58 Eur target. Capgemini also cooled recent speculation of a takeover bid from Infosys Technologies by saying it has had 'no contact of any sort' with the Indian software group. Property group Unibail-Rodamco continued to suffer amid fears about the housing market, shedding 4.10 or 2.42% to 165.39. Gaz de France, meanwhile, slipped 0.68 or 1.95% to 34.13 after reporting an 11% drop in first half sales. On the upside, STMicroelectronics led CAC-40 risers, adding 0.18 or 1.44% to 12.66, as it clawed back a little of its 9% losses in the previous two sessions following its disappointing second-quarter results and outlook. Saint-Gobain rose 1.02 or 1.27% to 81.28. The construction materials group reported much stronger than expected interims overnight and lifted its full year guidance, prompting UBS to lift its price target to 105 Eur. The company also announced this morning that it is selling its reinforcement and composites business to Owens Corning for 640 million usd. EADS climbed 0.26 or 1.17% to 22.50, lifted by an upgrade to 'neutral' from 'reduce' at UBS today, with the broker citing yesterday's better-than-expected second quarter results. LVMH added 0.76 or 0.95% to 81.01 after the luxury goods group LVMH said first half operating profit was rose 11% and organic sales 12% versus a year ago, with profit margin also improving. Food retailer Carrefour, finally, rose 0.32 or 0.62% to 51.64. The group said this morning it will sell its own-brand activities in Portugal to Sonae for an enterprise value of 662 million Eur. Into Switzerland now where Zurich Share prices finished the week little changed after a volatile trading session. At the close, the Swiss Market Index was 0.83 points lower at 8,705.57, while the Swiss Performance Index dropped 9.97 points to 7,129.40. Although the market rebounded in the early afternoon, even gains in heavyweight Nestle, which closed the trading up 4.25 SFr or 0.9% at 457.25, failed to arrest the overall downward trend. Apart from its defensive characteristics, Nestle was helped by news that the EU Commission has approved its 5.5 billion usd acquisition of Novartis baby food unit Gerber. Focus was on Julius Baer, down 1.9% or 1.60 at 82.50 SFr, as a strong set of first half results failed to impress investors and did little to offset ongoing pressures on the banking sector. Credit Suisse dropped 0.30 SFr to 78.50, while UBS fell 0.50 SFr to 66.10. In the pharma sector, Roche eased 0.50 to 210, benefiting from its defensive characteristics, as did Novartis, which closed flat at 64.80 SFr, also benefiting from the Gerber news as well as its agreement with the US FDA to allow restricted access to its irritable bowel syndrome drug Zelnorm, which it was forced to withdraw from the market earlier this year. Novartis inched 0.05 SFr higher to 64.85 SFr. Earlier, Credit Suisse raised its stance on the European pharmaceutical industry to 'market weight' from 'underweight', and said current problems experienced in the broader equity markets should only have a small impact on larger pharmaceutical companies. Major losers included Adecco, down 4 SFr or 4.7% at 81.85 SFr, and Nobel Biocare, shedding 3.3% or 12.25 SFr to 364.50, amid speculation CEO Heliane Canepa could be replaced, possibly by former Syngenta CFO Domenico Scala, due to the dental implant maker's lack of success in the US market. Outside the SMI, Swissquote closed 2.8% or 1.95 SFr lower at 66.80. Earlier, the group reported a first half net profit rise of 34.4% to 24.5 million SFr and hiked its full year guidance. Next-door in Austria , Vienna Shares closed lower, with most ATX index components posting losses as the Vienna bourse proved especially vulnerable to the global turndown in equity markets. The ATX closed down 1.32% or 60.89 points at 4,567.11. The ATX Prime closed down 1.50% or 34.58 points at 2,269.71. Decliners on the ATX were led by BWIN, which ended the day down 6.56% at 20.51 Eur after slumping sharply late in the trading session. Observers attributed the share's losses in heavy volumes to its exceptionally high volatility. Shares in RHI shed 4.03% to 36.90 Eur on Friday, as investors continued to react adversely to the lower-than-expected first half results the company released on Thursday. OMV closed down 3.30% at 45.07 Eur, in-line with a broader decline among oil sector stocks. The ATX heavyweight today denied press reports OMV will launch a formal bid for Hungary's MOL imminently. A-TEC Industries shares lost 2.89% to close at 156.50 Eur, more than 9% below their closing price a week earlier. Shares in Andritz shed 2.78% to 49.40 Eur in exceptionally heavy volumes one week ahead of second-quarter results that observers generally expect to be very solid. A steep decline in above average trading volumes also marked fellow industrial share voestalpine, which closed down 2.46% at 59.00 Eur. Wiener Staedtische underperformed the ATX on Friday by closing down 1.89% lower at 52.00 Eur. However, the insurance share was only 2.80% lower week-on-week, compared to the index's decline of 5.53% for the week as a whole. Continuing negative market sentiment towards biotech shares sent Intercell down a 1.57% to 25.10 Eur on Friday, with the share closing 9.87% lower than a week earlier. Index heavyweight Erste Bank ended trading at 53.50 Eur, down 1.02% for the day and 3.97% for the week. Fellow financial share Raiffeisen International's closing price of 111.00 Eur was only 0.13% lower for the trading day, but marked a decline of 6.57% for the week as a whole. Wienerberger led the small group of winners on the ATX by gaining 0.88% to 46.99 Eur on Friday. However, the share was still down 9.18% for the week, with investors particularly concerned about what impact the housing market slowdown in the US will have on the bricks and tiles conglomerate. Telekom Austria shares gained 0.46% to 17.62 Eur on bargain hunting following declines that caused the telecom share to end this week 6.97% lower than its closing price last Friday. Boehler-Uddeholm rose 0.38% to 73.28 Eur, while insurance share Uniqa remained unchanged at 25 Eur, managing to lose only 0.20% during the course of the week. On the ATX Prime, Austrian Airlines closed down 3.87% at 8.45 Eur, as the negative market trend in the airlines sector outweighed news that Raiffeisen Centrobank had upped its rating for the carrier to 'buy' at a target price of 11.50 Eur. Into Scandinavia now and starting this week with Norway where in Oslo Share prices closed lower, led down by Fast Search & Transfer after a profit warning, while Renewable Energy Corporation (REC) was higher after better-than-expected second-quarter earnings. The OSEBX Benchmark index closed 8.03 points lower at 485.75 and the OSEAX All Share index fell 9.05 points to 562.00. Total turnover was 12.17 billion NKr. Fast Search & Transfer closed 4.25 NKr lower at 10.75 after the search platform specialist warned its second-quarter results were unlikely to meet market expectations, with sales coming in at between 34-38 million usd compared to what analysts say is a consensus forecast in the region of 50 million. The group said 'changes in business practice' and the tightening of internal control procedures have had an adverse impact on second-quarter revenues. Telenor rose 1.5 to 107.75. DiGi.com, where Telenor holds 61%, said it has not made any proposal to any potential strategic partner although it is continuously evaluating potential opportunities with them. Speculation is rife that DiGi is close to striking a deal with rival TimeDotcom, which owns a 3G license, while DiGi does not. Telenor must cut its stake in DiGi.com to 49% by year-end. Renewable Energy added 1.75 to 225.5 after the group posted second-quarter profits ahead of expectations at both the pretax and operating levels, boosted by surging demand for its silicon wafers, with the share rise supported by the group's reiterated bullish forecast. EBITDA came in at 812 million NKr, up from 387 million last year, and ahead of the 780 million consensus forecast of analysts polled by TDN Finans. Pretax profits were 716 million NKr, up from 274 million year-on-year, and ahead of the 671 million figure forecast by analysts. Sales, meanwhile, came in at 1.67 billion NKr, up from 1.00 billion last year and ahead of the 1.59 billion consensus forecast. Hafslund B was 3.5 lower at 150. Orion Securities reiterated its 'buy' recommendation on the stock with a 167 NKr price target price after Hafslund posted second-quarter results below expectations at the end of last week. The weaker performance was driven by a 40% year-on-year fall in average power sales prices. However, dealers said Orion's recommendation is based on its outlook for Hafslund, which has said it is expecting a normalisation of electricity prices during the course of 2008. Prosafe was 2.1 lower at 90. Dealers said Orion Securities has hiked its rating on the Norwegian offshore services firm to 'buy' from 'hold'. Share prices closed lower, led down by Fast Search & Transfer after a profit warning, while Renewable Energy Corporation (REC) was higher after better-than-expected second-quarter earnings. The OSEBX Benchmark index closed 8.03 points lower at 485.75 and the OSEAX All Share index fell 9.05 points to 562.00. Total turnover was 12.17 billion NKr. Fast Search & Transfer closed 4.25 NKr lower at 10.75 after the search platform specialist warned its second-quarter results were unlikely to meet market expectations, with sales coming in at between 34-38 million usd compared to what analysts say is a consensus forecast in the region of 50 million. The group said 'changes in business practice' and the tightening of internal control procedures have had an adverse impact on second-quarter revenues. Telenor rose 1.5 to 107.75. DiGi.com, where Telenor holds 61%, said it has not made any proposal to any potential strategic partner although it is continuously evaluating potential opportunities with them. Speculation is rife that DiGi is close to striking a deal with rival TimeDotcom, which owns a 3G license, while DiGi does not. Telenor must cut its stake in DiGi.com to 49% by year-end. Renewable Energy added 1.75 to 225.5 after the group posted second-quarter profits ahead of expectations at both the pretax and operating levels, boosted by surging demand for its silicon wafers, with the share rise supported by the group's reiterated bullish forecast. EBITDA came in at 812 million NKr, up from 387 million last year, and ahead of the 780 million consensus forecast of analysts polled by TDN Finans. Pretax profits were 716 million NKr, up from 274 million year-on-year, and ahead of the 671 million figure forecast by analysts. Sales, meanwhile, came in at 1.67 billion NKr, up from 1.00 billion last year and ahead of the 1.59 billion consensus forecast. Looking ahead, REC said it continues to have faith in the strong growth of the global market for solar cells. The numbers followed the group's announcement late yesterday that it has won a contract to supply multi-crystalline silicon wafers to Moser Baer, in a deal worth 5.1 billion NKr over the next eight years. Hafslund B was 3.5 lower at 150. Orion Securities reiterated its 'buy' recommendation on the stock with a 167 NKr price target price after Hafslund posted second-quarter results below expectations at the end of last week. The weaker performance was driven by a 40% year-on-year fall in average power sales prices. Prosafe was 2.1 lower at 90. Dealers said Orion Securities has hiked its rating on the Norwegian offshore services firm to 'buy' from 'hold'. Statoil fell 5.25 to 170 ahead of the group's second-quarter results Monday morning. The consensus is for pretax profit of 28.08 billion NKr vs 32.19 billion on sales of 103.63 billion NKr vs 108.38 billion. Norsk Hydro was down 9.5 at 219, Petroleum Geo-Services shed 4.5 to 138.5, Seadrill fell 3 to 115, Fred Olsen Energy shed 9 to 281, Golar LNG was down 2.5 at 103.5, Subsea 7 fell 2.5 to 137.5 and Wilh Wilhelmsen B was 12 lower at 207. Elsewhere, Norske Skog was down 1.8 at 82.6, Yara International fell 0.75 to 154.5, Aker Kvaerner was 2 lower at 154, Aker Yards shed 2 to 68, Orkla fell 0.5 to 106, Schibsted was down 4 at 257 and Storebrand was down 1.3 at 88.5, while DnB NOR added 1.2 to 79.7. Across in Finland Helsinki saw its share market close slightly lower, with losses in shares such as UPM-Kymmene, Outotec and Stora Enso offsetting gains in blue-chips like Nokia, M-real B and YIT. The OMX Helsinki 25 closed down 0.20% at 3,122.86, while the OMX Helsinki all-share index ended 0.73% higher at 11,049.08 on turnover of 1.961 billion Eur. Nokia closed 3.25% firmer at 20.66 Eur. YIT, one of the bourse's second biggest climber, ended up 4.35% at 23.05 Eur. Metso added 1.13% to 44.76 Eur. The stock had fallen Friday as a wider equity sell-off eclipsed consensus-beating April-June numbers from the engineering group. Among sector peers, Konecranes K closed up 0.87% at 28.85 Eur, and Wartsila B up 1.17% at 50.26 Eur, while Kone was up 0.15% to 47.37 Eur. Nokian Tyres was 3.44% lower at 23.58 Eur. Stock in stainless steel maker Outokumpu was up 0.44% to 23.02 Eur after being upgraded to 'neutral' from 'sell' on valuation grounds at Goldman Sachs. The broker believes stainless base prices will begin to recover in the fourth quarter. However, it has not yet turned a buyer of stainless producers as the risk of a continuation of the sharp correction in the nickel price could prolong the de-stocking phase beyond its current expectations. Outotec finished 3.73% lower at 41.80 Eur. The company said it has won a 15 million Eur contract for the supply of chromite pelletising and sinter plant from South Africa's Samancor Chrome. In forestry, Stora Enso R and UPM-Kymmene were extending Thursday's losses inspired largely by concern about rising timber costs. Stora Enso R closed down 3.96% at 12.60 Eur and UPM-Kymmene was 2.72% lower at 16.46 Eur. Peer M-real B bucked the trend with a 4.59% gain to 4.79 Eur. FIM has repeated its 'buy' stance on M-real with a 7 Eur price target. In telecoms, Elisa gave up earlier gains and finished 0.26% lower at 19.55 Eur, and TeliaSonera 0.18% lower at 5.40 Eur after the latter's second-quarter report published this morning. Analysts cheered the appointment of former NCR Corp chairman and chief executive, Lars Nyberg, as TeliaSonera's new chief executive. Across now to Denmark where in Copenhagen Share prices closed lower, led down by Novozymes after a broker downgrade on valuation grounds. The OMXC20 index closed 6.97 points lower at 491.94, and the OMXCB Benchmark index fell 7.52 points to 471.53. The OMXC All Share index closed 6.05 points lower at 483.44 on turnover of 5.36 billion DKr. Novozymes closed 30 DKr lower at 640 after the stock was downgraded to 'reduce 1' from 'neutral 1' at UBS on valuation grounds. However, the broker raised its target price for the Danish enzymes maker to 624 DKr from 600 DKr. UBS said that Novozymes has an 'unjustifiable' EV/EBITDA ratio of 20 and a 2008 price/earnings ratio of 35. Nordea Bank also said the Novozymes share price was 'a bit strained'. The bank has a 'hold' and a 585 DKr target on the stock. Danisco shed 2 to 407.5. Carlsberg B fell 11 to 698. SparNord Bank recommended investors to sell Carlsberg today as the group is under pressure from rising raw materials prices, which it cannot pass on to customers. Royal Unibrew shed 17 to 725. AP Moller-Maersk A added 500 to 70,700, while the B-shares were 600 lower at 70,900 after Asian shipping peers fell overnight. Peer Mitsui OSK Lines said net profit for the fiscal first quarter ended June was 50% higher than a year before, lifted by a recovery in freight rates and higher volumes of cargo handled. The share nevertheless fell 2.7% as Japanese share prices closed sharply lower following the sharp sell-off on Wall Street Thursday. DS Norden was down 4 at 420. Citing Lloyd's List, Danske Bank said the Indian government has signalled a change in the import rules for cement to ease rising prices. The bank added that 15% of DS Norden's bulk business is cement. DS Torm fell 5 to 213.5, while DSV added 0.75 to 119.5. Novo Nordisk B was down 17 at 562. Analysts polled by RB Boersen expect the group to post a first-half pretax profit of 4.969 billion DKr on August 3, up 18% from a year ago. Lundbeck shed 1 to 141.75 and Coloplast fell 6 to 455. Bavarian Nordic was 7.5 lower at 443. The pharmaceutical company's share price has declined sharply in recent weeks as investors doubt there will be more major orders to come for its smallpox vaccine, daily Jyllands-Posten said. FLSmidth was 10.5 lower at 474.5. Canada's GL&V is expected today to decide on whether to accept the engineering group's 4.8 billion DKr bid for its minerals activities, announced in April. Elsewhere, GN Store Nord added 0.25 to 64.75, while Vestas Wind Systems shed 10 to 361, William Demant Holding was down 4 at 550, Danske Bank fell 4.5 to 230.5, Topdanmark was 14 lower at 901 and TrygVesta shed 6 to 419. And rounding out the Nordic arena this week we go to Sweden where in Stockholm shares closed slightly lower on continued profit-taking and as nervousness after Thursday's sell-off extended into Friday's session. The OMX Stockholm index closed down 0.29% at 395.41, while the OMX Stockholm 30 index ended 0.26% higher at 1,215.46. Turnover was 29.97 billion SKr. The main sector movers were materials, which closed down 1.15%; retailing, up 1.92%; and healthcare, 1.35% lower. The major movers within these sectors included SSAB A, down 1.91% at 231.50 SKr bid; Hennes & Mauritz B, up 2.50% at 390; and AstraZeneca, down 1.827% at 351.50. TeliaSonera closed down 0.20% at 49.60, with investors shrugging off the company's slightly weaker than expected second quarter results and focusing on the appointment of Lars Nyberg as the company's new CEO. Electrolux B was up 3.41% at 167, after being upgraded by Morgan Stanley to 'equalweight' from 'underweight', which also raised its target price by 16% to 170 SKr. Scania B closed flat at 160.50, following the over 11% sell-off in the stock yesterday in the wake of the company's second quarter results. Volvo B closed down 2.73% at 124.50. Parvus Asset Management said it has exited Violet Partners LP, cutting the latter's stake in Volvo by 10 million shares to 33.2 million, corresponding to 4.18% of the votes, and 1.64% of capital. Violet Partners previously owned 5.44% of the votes and 2.13% of the capital in Volvo. Violet Partners was set up by activist funds Parvus and Cevian Capital in order to pool their stakes in Volvo. Let's head South now and into the Med' where in Athens Greek shares closed sharply lower, effected by the volatility on international bourses and led down by Titan Cement. The ASE general index dropped 1.5% to 4,901.2, while the blue chip index lost 1.6% to 2,608.1. Mid caps fell 2% to 6,500.9 and small caps shed 1% to 1,153.6. The banking sector lost 1.9%, largely due to National Bank of Greece profit-taking. Decliners outnumbered advancers 224 to 49, while 38 were unchanged in solid volume of 593 million Eur. Titan Cement led blue chip decliners throughout the session and plummeted 3.7% to 39 Eur after its weak first half year results announcement yesterday. Broker National Securities-P&K Securities cut its target price from 46 Eur to 40.8 Eur on the disappointing figures. National Bank of Greece fell 2.7% to 43.9 Eur and in heavy trading volume as jittery investors cashed in on recent gains. Emporiki Bank closed 1.6% lower at 20.7 Eur. It said first half year group net profits fell 33.5% year on year to 61 million Eur, after trade closed yesterday, which was below brokers' expectations. Alpha Bank fell 1.7% to 24.16 Eur, EFG Eurobank slid 2.1% to 26.32 Eur and the Bank of Cyprus lost 1.7% to 12.48 Eur all on the generally negative sentiment in the banking sector. Betting technology company Intralot closed 1.3% lower at 24.38 Eur, unaffected by news that it has been selected as the lowest bidder in the New Mexico Lottery tender to provide gaming systems to the State for 7 years. Refrigeration company Frigoglass ended unchanged at 22 Eur. A Thomson Financial News analyst consensus poll sees it first half year group net profit rising 19% year on year to 40 million Eur, when it announces its results next Friday. Next door in Italy , Milan Share prices closed lower, tracking the weaker trend of US equities and led by falls in Lottomatica. The Mibtel index fell 0.30% to 31,142, while the S&P/Mib was down 0.23% to 39,581. Estimated volume traded was 7.928 billion Eur. Brokers said the stronger than expected US Q2 GDP data gave the market a fillip in the afternoon before shares fell back again. Quarterly results continued to be a factor for a number of companies, though brokers pointed to surprises among small caps rather than blue chips. Lottomatica lost 2.93% to 27.52 Eur, falling after yesterday's gains on a court suspending a 4 billion Eur regulatory fine and depressed today by loss of a New Mexico lottery concession. Seat PG saw volatile trading, ending down 2.70% to 0.41. The stock has a large debt burden and reacts to worries on interest rates. Autogrill fell 2.40% to 15.43. In the luxury sector, Luxottica lost 1.69% to 26.15 after an analyst meeting and lower than expected same store sales growth. Bulgari rose 1.62% to 11.06 ahead of next week's sales data. Tod's eased 0.08% to 60.99 ahead of consensus busting first half sales. Oil sector stocks were mixed. Eni lost 1.95 pc to 25.61 after yesterday's results which were broadly in line with expectations. Lehman Bros in a note said the second quarter results were 'solid' and that Eni's limited exposure to refinery activities should justify a further outperformance of the stock compared to the sector. Saipem fell 2.31% to 25.74. Tenaris was up 2.33% to 17.63. Leading gainers included Mondadori, up 4.09% to 6.97 and Intesa Sanpaolo up 2.19% to 5.47, which brokers said both offer strong yield in a period when investors are avoiding risky growth stocks. Among other banks, Unicredito fell 0.56% to 6.075 on worries over its Capitalia merger and ahead of shareholder meetings on the deal next week. At the end of the session Citigroup reiterated its 'buy'. Generali added 1.25% to 28.25 ahead of next week's results, which are expected to rise. Analysts said they don't expect a preview of September's business plan update, which is the driver for the stock. Alitalia gained 3.84% to 0.823 on prospects for a new privatisation attempt with easier conditions for buyers. Brokers say most investors avoid Alitalia because of its speculative nature. Indesit added 0.33% to 15.50 on positive reaction to yesterday's results. One broker said the Italian company has successfully cut its brands to a handful while rival Electrolux has 20. Pirelli fell 1.38% to 0.8205 after yesterday evening's in-line results. Prysmian lost 0.79% to 19.15. Goldman Sachs started coverage with a 'buy' on the stock and a 24 Eur price target. The US broker said it sees the company raising full year operating result guidance. Telecom Italia eased 0.30% to 1.965. Lehman reiterated its 'equal weight' after this week's results, saying investors are waiting for new shareholders to take charge and take strategic decisions. And bringing Europe to a close this week we go to Spain where in Madrid Share prices closed higher as selected stocks defied the global sell-off, with BME leading after half year earnings beat forecasts and Indra also strong as it raised full year guidance. The IBEX-35 index closed up 47.10 points at 14,587.5, after trading in a range of 14,378-14,655. BME led the pack, up 1.21 Eur or 3.10% at 40.22, lifted by forecast-beating first half results and ongoing hopes for sector consolidation. Indra was also strong, up 0.37 or 2.02% at 18.68 after the group raised its 2007 guidance on solid first half earnings, triggering broker upgrades from the likes of Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse. Santander, rising 0.20 to 13.70 reversed yesterday's declines as investors focused on the bank's solid first half results. Other heavyweights were also ahead, with BBVA up 0.12 to 17.89, Telefonica 0.11 higher at 17.01 while Repsol YPF rose 0.04 to 27.00, recovering slightly from yesterday's declines triggered by a weak set of second quarter numbers. Altadis gained 0.25 to 47.95, after a report that Canadian tobacco company Rothmans Inc is studying the possibility of countering Imperial Tobacco Group's 50 Eur per share offer. Among builders, Acciona slumped 5.75 or 2.98% to 186.95, depressed by an overall downbeat market reaction to first half earnings outlook, with heightening concerns over the impact of rising interest rates also weighing. Sector peer Ferrovial rebounded, up 0.55 to 65.00. |
At the end of its worst week since January 2003, a series of nascent rallies were snuffed out amid continued anxiety that turmoil in the credit markets could threaten the sustainability of the leverage buy-out boom. Following its worst one-day%age-point fall in more than four years on Thursday, the FTSE100 lost a further 36 points, or 0.6%, to 6,215.2. The index was down 5.6% for the week and all its gains for the year to date were erased. The mid-cap FTSE 250 lost 48.9 points, or 0.4%, to 10,984.5, down a remarkable 7.1% over the five-day period. Amid the carnage, bargain hunters emerged to pick up many of the year’s worst performing stocks. These included Northern Rock, 2.9% higher at 792p, Persimmon, up 2% to £10.99, Barratt Developments, 1.6% higher at 904½p, Liberty International, 1.2% firmer at £10.38, and British Land, up 0.7% to £12.12. Some of these gains were due to the closing of short positions, dealers said. Ahead of a busy week in the banking sector, HSBC rose 1.2% to 880½p. The UK’s six largest lenders report figures next week starting with HSBC, the biggest, on Monday. Shares in the bank hit a two-year low of 870p this week amid worries about the effect of weakness in the US subprime market on its HSBC Finance lending arm. Citigroup admitted that “uncertainty remains on US subprime mortgages” and reiterated its “hold” rating on the stock. Also on Monday, a US Food and Drug Administration advisory panel is due to meet to discuss the heart-attack risk of Avandia, the diabetes drug owned by GlaxoSmithKline. The pharmaceuticals group slipped 1.8% to £12.25. Of the risers, Resolution gained 2.9% to 649½p – the only stock on the FTSE 100 to end the week in positive territory – as closed life fund specialist Pearl Assurance raised its interest in the company from 11.28% to 15.85%. Resolution has agreed an £8.6bn merger with Friends Provident, which slipped 0.8% to 180p in heavy trading. The stock weakened as hopes that Axa might launch a counterbid were dealt a blow by news the French insurer’s fund management arm had cut its stake in the life assurer from 11.1% to 10.7%. There was vague talk that Standard Life, the life assurance company, was eyeing a bid for Friends. Standard Life shares fell 1.8% to 290½p. The nervousness in the debt markets was underlined as Cadbury Schweppes confirmed it would postpone the sale of its North American beverages arm. While this came as bad news for the company, shares in Cadbury rallied 2.4% to 603½p as the likes of Blackstone Group and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts were cited as being in the running to buy the division. National Grid firmed 2% to 701p as Cazenove reiterated its “outperform” stance on the power generator. The broker said National Grid was a natural hedge against volatile markets, pointing out its share price was closely linked to US nominal bond yields. Rolls-Royce gained 2.4% to 508p as Credit Suisse raised its stance on the engine maker from “neutral” to “outperform”. The bank said the “long-cycle and cash-generative characteristics of the company are not reflected in the current share price”. Credit Suisse upgraded Vodafone from “outperform” to “neutral”. The telecoms group rose 1.3% to 151.2p as the bank said there was “sufficient upside to our 170p price target to warrant an outperform rating. Among the fallers, mining stocks continued their poor run, with Anglo American down 4% to £27.39, Vedanta Resources off 3.9% to £16.18 and Antofagasta 3.6% lower at 674p. Many of the stocks at the centre of recent takeover speculation were also hit hard, with Experian Group down 3.3% to 551p, Punch Taverns 2.1% lower at £11.54 and Whitbread off 2% to £16.41. Emap jumped 12.4% to 858p as the owner of Heat magazine hoisted the “for sale” sign after “various unsolicited proposals” for parts of the group. |
Markets in Hong Kong, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines also fell sharply. Mainland Chinese stocks, however, ended the day flat. In Hong Kong , Share prices closed sharply lower, with the main index suffering its biggest single-day drop since 5 March. Selling in the local bourse was spread across the board, with HSBC among the stocks hit as investors fretted over the bank's exposure to the US sub-prime mortgage market. The Hang Seng Index closed down 641.28 points or 2.76% at 22,570.41, off a low of 22,443.10 and high of 22,854.54. Friday's fall was the largest in both points as well as%age terms since March 5, when the index dropped 777 points or 4%. For the week, the index is down 721.49 points or 3.09%. Turnover Friday was 112.52 billion HKD. Among blue chips, HSBC fell 2.10 HKD or 1.47% at 141.10, China Mobile was down 2.35 HKD or 2.56% at 89.35, Hutchison Whampoa shed 2.65 HKD or 3.11% to 82.55 and Swire Pacific gave up 2.80 HKD or 3.07% at 88.55. Hang Seng Bank lost 1.40 HKD or 1.25% at 110.20, Bank of East Asia was down 0.30 HKD or 0.66% at 45.35 and BOC Hong Kong fell 0.52 HKD or 2.63% at 19.28. The financial sub-index closed down 820.67 points or 2.31% at 34,767.89. HSBC and its unit Hang Seng Bank will release their first-half results on Monday, while Bank of East Asia will report on Thursday. China financials were also lower after recent strong gains. ICBC lost 0.20 HKD or 4.12% at 4.66, China Merchants was down 0.70 HKD or 2.48% at 27.50, Bank of China fell 0.13 HKD or 3.13% to 4.02 and China Life lost 1.15 HKD or 3.46% at 32.05. Property counters did not escape Friday's sell-off, with the sectoral sub-index falling 1,067.51 points or 3.87% to 26,548.39. Japan 's Nikkei average dropped 2.36% to its lowest in nearly three months on Friday on a plunge in the US market and a stronger Yen, while this Sunday's parliamentary election kept the market in check. Canon Inc. tumbled 5.5% to 6,510 Yen after cutting its annual profit outlook, becoming the biggest drag on the Nikkei, while Fujitsu Ltd. also plunged 6.2% to 789 Yen on its dimmer forecast. An election for half the seats in the upper house of Japan's parliament will be held on Sunday, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party seen faring poorly because of funding scandals and voter anger over lost pension records. The stock market may dip if the ruling party loses by a hefty margin, but the effect may be short-lived. The Nikkei was down 418.28 points at 17,283.81, the lowest close since 1 May. The broader TOPIX index shed 2.16% to 1,699.71. Auto stocks also declined as the Dollar hit a fresh three-month low against the Yen at 118.02 Yen on electronic trading platform EBS in early Asian trade before recovering to around 119.10 Yen. Honda Motor Co Ltd lost 2.5% to 4,310 Yen and Toyota Motor Corp slipped 1.6% to 7,260 Yen. However, Sony Corp. bucked the overall bearish trend, gaining 1.1% at 6,420 Yen, after the electronics giant said its quarterly profit more than trebled on strong sales of digital cameras and a softer Yen. A notable stock was Promise Co. Ltd. which plummeted 8.2% to 3,040 Yen after it launched a bid for Sanyo Shinpan Finance Co. Ltd. and also said first-half losses would be worse than first thought. South Korean shares plunged Friday along with other Asian bourses. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, fell 4.1% to 1,883.22. It was the biggest drop since June 3, 2004, when it dropped 4.3%. Only on Wednesday, the index closed above the 2,000-point level for the first time ever. Philippine shares plunged Friday, hurt by the aftershock of the overnight fall on Wall Street. A technical problem that delayed the opening of the bourse by more than an hour added to the anxiety. The 30-company Philippine Stock Exchange Index plummeted 140.92 points, or 3.9%, to 3,518.76 - its steepest single day fall since August 28, 1997. The index rose 0.4% Thursday. Losers, led by property developer Vista Land & Lifescapes Inc., outnumbered gainers 141 to 8, with 24 issues unchanged. Vista Land, which listed shares sold in a follow-on offer on Thursday, fell 5.8% to 6.50 Pesos. Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co., whose American depositary receipts fell 2% overnight in New York, retreated 1.3% to 2,625 Pesos. The Taiwan stock market fell 4.2% Friday on overnight Wall Street falls and weak futures trading. The Taiwan stock market index TAIEX dropped 404.14 points to finish at 9,162.28 points, the biggest drop in a year since the market dropped 4.4% on June 8, 2006. Singapore shares closed sharply lower Friday as investors reduced positions. Lackluster corporate results from DBS Group Holdings and Chartered Semiconductor here, prompted investors to dump shares. Sentiment towards property stocks here has also been dented by uncertainty in the wake of government measures to cool the booming property sector. The Straits Times index (STI) closed down 87.03 points or 2.4% at 3,492.70, after trading between 3,444.05 and 3,503.76. The index lost 158.68 points or 4.3% during the week. There were 4.11 billion shares traded worth 4.11 billion Singapore Dollars. Losers outnumbered gainers 957 to 142, with 512 stocks unchanged. The Stock Exchange of Thailand ’s composite index plunged more than 18 points in the morning trading session in the same direction with other stock markets around the world and upon concerns over simmering political violence. The index nose-dived over 18 points at the opening bell and continued a free fall to more than 22 points before recouping its loss and closing at 867.34, down 16.82 or 1.9%, with a heavy trading value of 17.88 billion Baht in the morning session. In addition, the local political situation turned to heat up again as police late Thursday placed all nine key anti-coup protest leaders in custody at Bangkok's Sam Sen police station for questioning. Investors were worried the detention would lead to the political violence and so decided to sell stocks heavily to reduce risks. Malaysian share prices closed sharply lower Friday. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) lost 26.12 points or 1.9% to 1,355.38, off an intraday high of 1,361.70 and a low of 1,347.95. For the week, the KLCI lost 26.98 points or 2.0%. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia 30-large cap index fell 123.98 points or 1.4% to 8,547.89 and the second board index declined 1.89 points or 1.6% to 117.27. Losers outnumbered gainers 883 to 144, with 149 stocks unchanged. Trading volume was hefty at 1.997 billion shares, valued at 3.448 billion Ringgit. Indonesian shares closed sharply lower in line with mostAsian markets. The composite index closed down 66.85 points or 2.8% at 2,298.41 on volume of 7.19 billion shares worth 6.3 trillion rupiah. Over the week, the index lost 67.98 points or 2.9%. The LQ45 index was down 14.87 points or 473.91. Declines led advances 197 to 44, while 30 stocks were unchanged. China A-shares closed mixed, with Shanghai slightly lower as banks were hit by profit-taking after the composite index hit a new high Thursday. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A- and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, closed down 1.10 points at 4,345.36. The Shanghai A-share Index was down 1.11 points at 4,557.43 while the Shenzhen A-share Index was up 16.81 points or 1.31% at 1,301.80. China B-shares closed lower led by large caps with profit-taking emerging after the benchmark Shanghai Composite index hit an all-time high Thursday. The Shanghai B-share Index was down 0.47 points or 0.15% at 317.57 and the Shenzhen B-share Index down 15.99 points or 2.02% at 774.36. In India , as the benchmark Sensex suffered a biggest loss of the last four months on the Bombay Stock Exchange on Friday, the metal stocks came under heavy bear - hammering and shed maximum points following reports of weak trend at the London Metal Exchange. As the key index dropped by 541.74 points at 15,234.57, the metal index plunged by 638.19 points at 11,501.52 on aggressive selling by funds at almost all leading counters. Friday's fall of the Sensex was the biggest since April 2 and 27 of the 30 BSE stocks were in the red. Wall Street's biggest loss in five months has dragged down the Australian share market and led to a third straight day of losses. Australian investors wiped $41 billion off the value of the market. Shares fell 2.8% by the close of trade, in what was the biggest one-day fall since September 2001. Friday's losses have been spurred on by the continued housing slump in the United States. The All Ordinaries Index has shed 174 points to 6,127, while the ASX 200 is down 175 points at 6,082. Stocks exposed to the US market have been hit hard. James Hardie Industries has slipped 4.8% to $7.71. Macquarie Bank has lost 5.8% to $81.15. The other banks are also well down. The Commonwealth Bank has fallen $1.21 to $54.57. The mining sector has had substantial losses after another fall in commodities prices. BHP Billiton has slipped about 3.5% to $35.97 and Rio Tinto has fallen $3.28 to $90.60. Oil and gas producer Woodside Petroleum has approved the $11.2 billion Pluto liquid natural gas development in Western Australia. Woodside Petroleum has fallen 3% to $43. Channel Seven has lost 4% to $10.91 after losing its C7 case in the Federal Court today. The news was not any better for retail stocks. The Coles Group has fallen 3.5% to $14.29. New Zealand 's benchmark NZX-50 Index dropped 1.8%, or 79.77 points, to 4,246.01, its biggest one-day%age fall since 4 May 2006. The top stock, Telecom Corp. of New Zealand Ltd., slumped 2.5% to NZ$4.70. |
Crude prices rebounded with ICE September Brent up 62 cents at $75.80 a barrel and Nymex September West Texas up $1.05 at $76.00. For the week, Brent fell 2.3% but WTI rose 0.3%. WTI this week overtook Brent for the first time since February as more US refineries have come back on stream, raising demand for US crude. The IMF warned in its latest global update that “the risk of an oil price spike remains a concern”. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries played down the impact of near-record oil prices on global economic activity amid ongoing pressure on Opec to raise production. Gold fell 3.3% to $662.30 a troy ounce over the week as hedge funds liquidated profitable positions. Gold has not benefited as a safe haven in spite of rising risk aversion. Base metals retreated as risk aversion rose this week. Copper fell 4% to $7,785 a tonne this week but found support Friday after Codelco suspended production at the El Teniente division, home to the world’s largest underground mine. Lead dropped 14.6% to $2,990 a tonne this week after reaching a record $3,500 last Friday. The Baltic Dry Index, the best gauge of the global bulk shipping costs, rose 4.4% this week to a record 6,890 points Friday. The index set fresh records every day this week, propelled by strong demand for bulk commodities such as iron ore and coal, and congestion at ports in Australia and Latin America. Shipping costs are also being lifted by tightness in global grain markets. Lower European wheat exports are forcing some countries, such as Bangladesh, to buy US wheat, lengthening trade routes. Wheat prices rose on both sides of the Atlantic, because of concerns about the European harvest as estimates for the French and German crop were cut. More rain is forecast for Europe’s producing regions this weekend. November milling wheat futures rose 9% to €209 a tonne and touched €213 a tonne Friday, the highest price since the contract was launched in 1998. In Chicago, CBOT September wheat gained 5.1% to $6.48 a bushel, after hitting an 11-year high at $6.64 on Thursday. Rising wheat prices supported corn since US farmers use both as animal feed. CBOT September corn was flat over the week at $3.18 a bushel. CBOT September soyabeans fell 4.1% to $8.15¼ a bushel for the week. |
Analysts said as long as the problems in US credit markets were seen as a US rather than a global issue it would be the Dollar that suffered rather than riskier carry trades and emerging market currencies. Yet, as it became clear that the problems in the US were spilling over, contributing to sharp falls in global asset markets on Thursday, carry trades and emerging market currencies were hit. The Yen rose 4.9% to Y91.77 against the New Zealand Dollar over the week, in spite of a 25 basis-point interest rate rise to 8.25% by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and gained 4.1% to Y102.16 against the Australian Dollar. It climbed 3% to Y241.70 against Sterling, 3% to a six-week high of Y162.50 against the Euro and 2% to a three-month high of Y118.90 against the Dollar. The low-yielding Swiss franc, carry trade investors’ second favourite funding currency, rose 0.5% to SFr1.6525 against the Euro on the week, 0.5% to SFr2.4570 against the Pound and 1.6% to SFr1.0395 against the Australian Dollar. Emerging market currencies suffered, with the Brazilian real falling 4.3% to R1.9350 against the Dollar over the week. The Dollar benefited from the turmoil, pulling away from its lows against the Euro and Sterling. Over the week, the Dollar rose 1.3% to $1.3650 against the single currency and climbed 1.3% to $2.0290 against the Pound. Asian currencies fell sharply on Friday on concern that the deterioration in the US housing market could raise credit costs and put a brake on the global economy. The Australian Dollar, Indian Rupee, Indonesian Rupiah, and Philippine Peso were among the biggest losers as risk-averse investors moved to less volatile assets. The Japanese Yen was the region's sole gainer as investors unwound carry trades, whereby they borrow in low-yielding currencies such as the Yen for investment in other currencies or markets with higher yields. That drove the Yen to a three-month high against the Dollar and a six-week peak versus the Euro. Among the region's currencies, the Australian Dollar was down 2.27% against the US Dollar, as investors unwound carry trade transactions, at $0.8648, according to Reuters data. The Rupee, meanwhile, was down 0.44% at Rs40.52 against the Dollar, off a nine-year high of 40.20 hit on Tuesday. The Indonesian Rupiah fell as low as Rp9,240 per Dollar, down more than 1.3% and at its lowest level since mid-March. The Philippine Peso also fell as much as 1% to 45.8 per Dollar and the Malaysian Ringgit was down by a similar%age at a one-month low of 3.468 per Dollar. The Korean Won also suffered Friday against the US Dollar, which rose to 921.7 from 918.2. Elsewhere, South Africa's Rand closed at 7.0975 to the Dollar Friday, 0.25% weaker than its close in New York on Thursday, when it lost almost three% of its value in one of its biggest session falls.
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The branch will submit another application for local incorporation to the regulator within six months, the report said. Allianz already has a 51-49 life insurance joint venture in China with the CITIC Trust & Investment Co. According to the report, both Tokyo Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance and France's Groupama SA were also rejected by the CIRC for local incorporation. Earlier, AIU Insurance Co, a unit of American International Group Inc (AIG), and US-based Liberty Mutual announced that they have won the regulator's approval to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China. As part of the accords at the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue held in May, China promised to make decisions before Aug 1 on allowing branches of foreign property insurance companies to get local incorporation. *********************************************** China's top leadership said Thursday the economy was in good shape but preventing dangerous overheating was the nation's top economic policy priority. The meeting, comprised of China's senior leadership and chaired by President Hu Jintao, concluded that rising price levels needed to be controlled, along with excessively rapid credit and investment activity and trade surplus growth. The government had to "prevent general price levels from rising too quickly," said the official statement carried by Xinhua. The report also concluded that blind investment and high levels of investment had to be reduced, while "appropriately stable monetary policy should be moderately tightened". The formulation regarding monetary tightening first appeared in a report issued following a State Council meeting chaired in mid-June by Premier Wen Jiabao and has since appeared in numerous other government documents. China's economy expanded by a faster-than-expected 11.9% in the second quarter, the government reported last week. Consumer price inflation in June alone surged to a near-three year high of 4.4%. The central bank raised benchmark interest rates Saturday, in the fifth such adjustment since April last year. Analysts believe the government is widely expected to approve at least one more interest rate increase before the end of this year. On Wednesday the International Monetary Fund revised China's 2007 gross domestic product forecast up 1.2%age points to 11.2% and 2008 growth up a full point to 10.5% in its latest World Economic Outlook. |
Summary Next week could see a bounce.
Let's face it, over the past three months any sharp decline in the US is met with the Fed', Congress or Mr Bush himself jumping in to save markets by announcing some small matter of 3 million jobs they overlooked the month before and .... bingo, the markets come back.
So I am not entirely discounting Elvis appearing sometime over the weekend with a donation of 40 Billion US Dollars to wipe out the Sub-Prime Debt problem and before you know it, the Dow will be back on track for further new highs.
I am discounting 'nothing' at the moment Ladies and Gentlemen, because so far in the last 3 months the US Markets have ignored all of the factual indicators and ploughed ahead for the most bizarre of reasons. So if the Fed Chairman on Monday announces that Elvis re-appeared and donated a few Billion, whilst at the same time he found an extra 3 Million jobs that were unaccounted for last week and 500,000 new house sales - it would not in the least surprise me!
I hope that you all have a wonderful weekend and as always, I will keep you all posted if Elvis comes up with any market-saving news next week.
Market Review Newsletter Compiled By
Adrian Page
Managing Director
Financial Page International
Saturday 28 July 2007
"Money Does Not Perform. People Do!"
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