Financial Page International

4 February 2012 - Global Markets Review
 

Gray

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,

 

The week started with worries about Greece and hope that the 'saviour' last weekend was going to be the EU Summit in Brussels.

 

Contrary to perhaps your belief (and I can understand this), I would give everything to go back to the days where I could review the markets and pick 2 or maybe even 3 sectors that were looking good for the following week and, most importantly, say with a huge degree of confidence that I knew what I was talking about.

 

Now, in a US and French Election Year, it is absolutely impossible to sound positive (unless you are a trader ....) and here's the rub, I know in my heart what should be happening with regards to the US,  Europe and Greece yet what I see is everything to the contrary.

 

If I developed 'Pinocchio' syndrome, I could say that the US jobs figures are for real; not to worry about Greece, Italy or Europe in general; corporate losses and jobs cuts are normal; China has no domestic issues and you should buy stocks now.

 

Pinocchio is of course fictional - akin to almost every market report I am reading currently - written by Disney characters that seem to have lost the plot and are living, in the main, in or around Orlando! You can bet your house and grandchildren that Walt Disney's earnings next week come in better than expected!

 

Therefore, please understand that it is very difficult for me to be positive about what is happening in Global Finance when ultimately, the financial world seems to be functioning on an even greater dose of 'Smoke and Mirrors' than it was in 2008.

 

And that is terribly, terribly scary.

 

You don't need to be Einstein to work out that something is seriously awry when the overnight US New Jobs figures for December didn't just beat the estimates of 140,000, they almost doubled them at 243,000!

 

Would you not think that those anlaysts that predicted 140,000 were so far off the mark .... or something else was at play here!

 

But I'll come to that in a moment (seemingly, in current market conditions, it is impossible anyway not to mention US phantom job creation; European mayhem or Greece's ability to remain solvent - and what on earth, in reality, is there to say positive about any of those?).

 

But while you mull those thoughts, I'll start this week with a couple of quick questions:

 

Q. What do Bekaert, American Airlines, AstraZeneca, WestPac, ArcelorMittal, BHP, IBM and Lafarge have in common?

 

A. They all announced massive jobs cuts this week.

 

It really is a sign of the times when companies are, as they did in 2008, seeing their earnings eradicated and instead of looking for 'growth', they are looking at trimming costs from the here-and-now - starting with jobs.

 

The knock-on effect of those soon-to-be-wielded jobs cuts is obviously higher unemployment - just at a time where many countries state that their unemployment is stabilising - apart from Spain that is!

 

My second question:

 

Q. What do Deutsche Bank, International Paper, Viacom, Singapore Airways, Hyundai Heavy Industries and Infineon have in common?

 

A. They all posted historically lower profits this week.

 

The highest proportion of European companies on record are missing profit estimates even as the region's stocks post their best start to a year since 1998.

 

Siemens and Ericsson are among the 59% of Stoxx Europe 600 Index companies reporting earnings that fell short of forecasts during the current quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

That's the worst ratio since Bloomberg started collating estimates in 2006, with 39% of companies missing projections in an average quarter.

 

Bulls (who seem to be talking just that) say the Stoxx 600 will extend this year's 8% gain as the region's stocks are still cheap and efforts by the European Central Bank to boost lending will help liquidity. The rally will fade as analysts' 2011 earnings projections are too positive even after a 9% cut, according to money managers.

 

Personally I think this is absolute nonsense, the growth as we have seen in the past 4 weeks - on top of such negative corporate and economic news - is completely unsustainable.

 

Twenty of the 34 companies in the Stoxx 600 that released results from 9 January through Thursday had per-share earnings that trailed behind analyst estimates.

 

The surge in stocks is outpacing earnings prospects as Spain's economy shrinks and borrowing costs in Portugal this week climbed to a Euro-era record. 

 

Siemens, Europe's biggest engineering company, has dropped 2.4% in 2012 as fiscal first-quarter earnings missed analysts' estimates and it cautioned that targets for the full year have become more challenging to reach. Profit at Ericsson, the world's largest maker of wireless networks, also fell short of forecasts amid slower spending from North American customers.

 

Analysts reduced estimates for last year's earnings at Stoxx 600 companies to 23.20 Euros a share in December from 25.50 Euros in the first month of 2011.

 

It's not just in Europe too where they are suffering.

 

In Japan, Panasonic widened its annual net-loss forecast to a record 780 billion Yen ($10.2 billion), making it the latest Japanese electronics company to predict declining earnings because of Thai floods and a slow economy.

 

The revision, which includes restructuring charges, compares with the 420 billion-Yen loss Panasonic predicted in October. The loss in the 12 months ending in March will be the biggest since Osaka-based Panasonic was founded in 1918, exceeding the 427.8 billion Yen in March 2002.

 

The world's largest maker of plasma TVs joins domestic peers Sony and Sharp in increasing loss forecasts as they struggle to cope with a slow global economy that is hurting sales after the Thai floods and the March 11 earthquake in Japan crippled plants and suppliers. Panasonic booked a 290 billion- Yen charge for goodwill write-down, with 250 billion Yen stemming from its purchase of Sanyo Electric. 

  

Operating profit will probably total 30 billion Yen in the year ending March, compared with the company's previous forecast of 130 billion Yen, Panasonic said. The company cut its forecast of annual revenue to 8 trillion Yen from 8.3 trillion Yen.

 

The company cut its capital expenditure plan to 300 billion Yen from 320 billion Yen, and for the three months ended 31 December, the company reported a net loss of 197.6 billion Yen.

 

Around the world, earnings reports have been dire this week with headlines such as: Energy Resources of Australia posts steep loss - Tiger Air posts third straight quarterly loss - LG posts a 2011 net loss of $391 million - Dow Chemical posts 4Q loss on charge - Deutsche Bank posts pre-tax loss of 351 million Euros .... the list goes on and on and on.

 

Not just profits (or lack of them), economically the news headlines have not been great this week either: US Productivity Growth Slows To 0.7% In Q4 - German Retail Sales Fall Unexpectedly In December - French Manufacturing Activity Continues To Fall - Swiss Jan. Manufacturing Sector Contracts Further .... another raft of negative numbers.

 

So tell me Ladies & Gentlemen, is it just me, or can I be forgiven for believing that global stockmarkets should have dropped over the course of the week as opposed to gaining an average of 4%?

  

Truly unfathomable!

 

Talking of unfathomable, what I mentioned at the start and how can I not mention this subject?

 

Last weekend's European Summit.

 

Well, it promised so much but .... seemed to pass without anything happening at all!

 

For all the rhetoric and 'determination' shown to global media on the way into the Brussels Summit, most leaders seemed to exit via either the backdoor or a trapdoor in the basement - because there were very few people of note that appeared afterwards with anything to say.

 

'Impasse' was the word most widely used in global media after the event.

 

I guess 'Impasse' must mean "gather round a table; drink vast amounts of coffee; agree that further dialogue is needed and adjourn until next time".

 

But continuing what I said at the outset, this week the focus carrying markets and a 'potential solution' to all problems globally, seems to have been the continued feeling that Greece can be saved.

 

Ladies & Gentlemen .....

 

LET GREECE FAIL!

 

Yes, it will cause short/medium-term issues in Europe and to a lesser degree around the world for sure, but this would be the catalyst I feel in bringing governments, treasuries, regulators and banking systems back to basics; to a point where they can rebuild whilst at the same time taking onboard the lessons learned. (Although I seem to remember saying that after the 2008 crisis, about lessons learned!) 

  

This would mean that Greece in turn get a fresh start, which they have to manage themselves and Portugal can watch from the sidelines and learn how - if need be - their exit will be managed most effectively as opposed to a disorganised exit that Greece is ultimately - whichever way you look at it - going to succumb to.

 

You think I'm wrong?

 

Look at it this way; it is no wonder the markets are in a quandary and have been for so long: they hate the uncertainty of public opinion and democracy.

 

It's much easier for them to deal with stitch-ups negotiated by governments and IMF officials, forcing austerity on people than face the prospect of bank losses. Worse, the Greek problem isn't even the worst calamity the Eurozone has to deal with.

 

That problem is Italy.

 

But briefly, here is the case for Greece to leave the Eurozone.

 

We're being sold this bogus line that Greece needs austerity because it spent far too much during the good years.

 

Yes, Greece did run an unsustainable deficit, but that can only be dealt with now by growing the economy - not imposing the kind of severe austerity that shrinks the economy at a horrifying rate. 

 

Some austerity!

 

It is an interesting definition of austerity that sees Greek debt grow and grow and grow.

 

All along it has been the markets themselves saying that Greece needs to exit the Euro.

 

Every time the politicians announce some grand new plan it's been the markets that say; 'umm, guys, you know that won't work'.

 

Every single time the governments, the IMF, the ECB, EFSF etc. have announced a "deal" it's been the markets that point out the Emperor is wearing no clothes.

 

It's the markets themselves that are leading Greece out of the door - fact.

 

What is causing all this is the bubble caused by European lending, which made the Greeks about twice as rich as they really are. Now they are returning to reality.

 

The creation of the Euro has facilitated the biggest national credit binge in history with countries like Greece, Italy and Portugal going on a vast spending spree using Germany's (and to a smaller extent, France's) credit card. And, as always when recession strikes, the chickens are coming home to roost.

 

Greece should leave the Eurozone for its own sake and I am not going to change my opinion on that anytime soon.

 

But there's a bigger problem that temporarily (and I do mean temporarily) remains on the back-burner: the failure of European politicians to accept this inevitable outcome illustrates the sort of political paralysis that can only make things worse.

 

And that problem is Italy.

 

Greece, as I have said before, is peanuts compared to Italy - which has €1.9 trillion in public debt and nearly €3.5 trillion in total debt.

 

The attempt to preserve Greece within the Eurozone is now a distraction from the much bigger problem of Italy.

 

And if they can't even solve the first problem, which has been dragging on for months, we really are going to be in a deeper mess than anyone seems to be letting on.

 

But then again, it seems that no-one cares as stockmarkets gain almost 4% on the week!

 

Work that one out if you can because I most certainly can't!

 

On to those numbers on the boards for the excrutiating week that was:

 

US Markets 
How the US did this week .....

 US SummaryUS stocks advanced, extending the best start to a year for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index since 1987, after a report showed that employment growth topped estimates and the jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 8.3%.

 

Bank of America, Caterpillar and Alcoa rallied at least 3.2% to pace gains among companies most- tied to economic growth. The Dow Jones Transportation Average gained 1.2% as FedEx climbed 1.9%. Genworth Financial, a mortgage guarantor and life insurer, surged 14% after swinging to a profit. Tyson Foods rose 4.1% as earnings at the meat processor beat estimates.

 

The S&P 500 added 1.5% to 1,344.90 at 4 p.m. New York time. The benchmark gauge has rallied for five straight weeks, the longest streak in a year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 156.82 points, or 1.2%, to 12,862.23, the highest level since 2008. The Russell 2000 Index of small companies jumped 2.2% to 831.11. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.6% to 2,905.66, the highest since 2000.

 

Stocks and bond yields jumped as the report fueled optimism the economy is weathering Europe's debt crisis. The 243,000 increase in payrolls was the most since April and beat all forecasts by far. The unemployment rate fell to the lowest since February 2009. Service industries in the US expanded in January at the fastest pace in almost a year.

 

The S&P 500 has recovered after plunging 19% between 29 April and 3 October 2011 amid better-than estimated economic data and corporate profits (a mere few!). It's 1.4% away from surpassing its peak nine months ago and reaching the highest since June 2008.

 

The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index climbed 2.8% amid economic optimism. The KBW Bank Index rallied 3.3%. A gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes gained 5.8%.

 

Bank of America added 5.2% to $7.84. Caterpillar, the largest construction and mining-equipment maker, increased 3.3% to $113.94. Alcoa, the largest US aluminum producer, climbed 3.3% to $10.76. FedEx, an economic bellwether as it moves goods from pharmaceuticals to financial documents, jumped 1.9% to $94.54.

 

Genworth Financial soared 14%, the most in the S&P 500, to $9.17. Chief Executive Officer Michael Fraizer has scaled back the retirement-products business to conserve capital as Genworth seeks to maintain sales of US mortgage coverage. The company has no plans to add more capital to the US mortgage insurance operation, Fraizer said Friday.

 

Tyson Foods rose 4.1% to $19.38. The meat processor reported first-quarter earnings of 42 cents a share. On average, the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimated profit of 34 cents.

 

Gilead Sciences jumped 11% to $54.70. The drugmaker that acquired Pharmasset Inc. last month for its experimental hepatitis C treatments gained after one of the medicines produced positive clinical trial results.

 

Brocade Communications Systems rose 1.4% to $5.91. Blackstone Group is studying a leveraged buyout of the company, said a person with knowledge of the situation. While Blackstone is in talks with Brocade, which has been seeking a buyer since 2009, reaching a deal may be difficult, said the person.

 

Estee Lauder lost 2.3% to $57.48. The maker of Mac cosmetics and Clinique skin care forecast third-quarter earnings of no more than 32 cents a share, before restructuring charges, missing the average analyst estimate of 41 cents.

 

Wynn Resorts slipped 4.8% to $114.98. Wynn Macau's full-year profit missed analysts' estimates as the Hong Kong-listed unit benefited less than its competitor, Sands China Ltd., from surging gambling revenue in the former Portuguese colony.

European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....

 Europe SummaryBanking stocks led the rally in Europe after another round of data suggested that the economic recovery remains on track.

 

European stocks posted the biggest weekly gain this year, sending the Stoxx Europe 600 Index to its highest level in six months, as manufacturing increased globally and the US jobless rate fell to the lowest in three years.

 

Xstrata and Glencore International surged more than 13% after the world's largest publicly traded commodities trader held talks to buy the Zug, Switzerland-based mining company. Temenos Group rallied 20% as Misys, the British maker of software for banks, said it has held talks about a merger with the Swiss company.

 

The Stoxx 600 climbed 3.6% to 264.6 this week, extending the January rally of 4% that was the best start to a year since 1998. The equity gauge has gained 8.2% in 2012 and is up 23% since its 2 1/2-year low on 22 September.

 

The Markit Economics final purchasing managers' index, a gauge of manufacturing in the Euro area, climbed to 48.8 in January from 46.9 in the prior month. A UK manufacturing index also jumped to an eight-month high.

 

GERMANY

 

German stocks rose for a fourth day, extending a six-month high, after a report showed the US economy created more jobs in January that even the most bullish economist had predicted.

 

Exporters to the US, including Daimler and Bayer, led the advance. Munich Re, the world's biggest reinsurer, and Sky Deutschland also rose. Rhoen-Klinikum fell before the operator of health-care facilities reports earnings next week.

 

The DAX Index rose 1.7% to 6,766.67 at the close in Frankfurt as it posted a weekly advance of 3.9%. The DAX has jumped 15% this year, gaining the most in January since the benchmark measure started in 1988, amid speculation the global economy will withstand the impact of the Euro area's debt crisis and as central banks acted to fuel growth. The broader HDAX Index (HDAX) also added 1.7% Friday.

 

Daimler, the carmaker that makes 24% of sales in the US, climbed 3.1% to 45.46 Euros after the jobs report. Bayer, maker of the Xarelto blood thinner, advanced 1.4% to 55.09 Euros. The company generated 23% of its revenue from North America in 2010.

 

Munich Re gained 2.8% to 106.45 Euros. Commerzbank AG raised its recommendation on the stock to "buy" from "add," and its price forecast for the shares to 118 Euros from 100 Euros.

 

Sky Deutschland, the German pay-television provider controlled by News Corp., rallied 9.3% to 2.47 Euros. The stock soared 19% Thursday after the company reported higher subscriber numbers and predicted positive earnings for 2013.

 

Rhoen-Klinikum declined 2.8% to 15.28 Euros. Analysts at Berenberg Bank wrote in a report Friday that the company may post annual net income of 152 million Euros ($199 million) when adjusting for one-time tax gains on Feb. 9. That would be "right at the lower end of the guidance range," the brokerage wrote.

 

An auction of Germany's 10-year debt on Wednesday attracted strong demand and borrowing costs fell.

 

The country sold Eur 4.093 billion 2% January 2022 bonds in the sale, the Bundesbank said. The auction drew bids totaling Eur 5.683 billion against a target of Eur 5 billion.

 

The average yield was 1.82%, down from 1.93% in the previous tap on January 4. Demand was 1.4 times the offer compared to 1.3 in the previous sale.

 

German unemployment declined further to a two-decade low in January, suggesting that the economy is weathering the debt crisis as well as external headwinds, data from the Federal labour Agency showed Tuesday.

 

The number of unemployed persons decreased by 34,000 to 2.85 million in January. The decline follows a 25,000 fall in December and was larger than the expected drop of 10,000.

 

The jobless rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 6.7%, a new record low, from 6.8% in December. Economists had expected the rate to remain steady at 6.8%. On the other hand, the unadjusted unemployment rate rose to 7.3% from 6.6%.

 

According to the labour force survey by the Federal Statistical Office, unemployment decreased slightly by 20,000 to 2.34 million in December. Meanwhile, the number of persons in employment living in Germany exceeded the 41 million-mark again.

 

Last week, results of a survey carried out by the market research group GfK indicated an improvement in sentiment among German consumers for February. Consumption is expected to play the role of stabilizing the economy and prevent a slide into recession.

 

Nonetheless, data from Federal Statistical Office Friday showed an unexpected decline in German retail sales in December due to weak Christmas sales. Retail sales turnover dropped 1.4% in December after falling 1% in November. Economists had expected 0.8% growth.

 

On a yearly basis, retail turnover dipped 0.9%, offsetting the previous month's 0.9% rise. The consensus forecast called for an annual growth of 1.2%.

 

Germany's annual inflation, measured under the EU methodology, remained unchanged in January, flash estimates from the Federal Statistical Office showed Wednesday.

 

The annual increase in the harmonized index of consumer prices held steady at 2.3% in January. Economists were expecting it to rise to 2.4% in January.

 

Month-on-month, the indicator dipped 0.5% due to seasonal factors, while the expected drop for January was 0.4%.

 

The statistical office published HICP data separately from flash consumer prices for January. The flash consumer price inflation rate was 2% in January, down from 2.1% in December.

 

FRANCE

 

In Paris the CAC40 closed the week at 3,427.92, up a whopping 1.52% for the day.

 

France witnessed a decline in borrowing costs at an auction of its longer term bonds on Thursday.

 

The Agence France Tresor raised a total Eur 7.692 billion from the sale of bonds, known as OATs, against the target range of Eur 6.5 billion - Eur 8 billion.

 

The agency sold Eur 5.968 billion of a new line of 10-year bonds maturing in April 2022 against bids totaling Eur 9.730 billion. The yield was 3.13%, less than the 3.29% paid for debt of similar maturity on January 5. Demand was 1.71 times the offer, up from 1.64 in the previous sale.

 

The country sold Eur 1.011 billion 4.25% October 2018 bonds at an average yield of 2.44%, which is less than the 3.27% paid in the previous auction in March last year. The bid-to-cover ratio for the 6-year debt rose to 4.34 from 2.62%.

 

The AFT also placed 2.50% October 2020 bonds at an average yield of 2.91%, down from 3.64% in the previous tap in May last year. Demand was 3.99 times the offer, up from 3.34 in the previous sale.

 

Despite losing its triple A credit rating from Standard & Poor's last month, France has had successful debt auctions in recent weeks.

 

Activity in the French manufacturing sector declined further in January, as estimated earlier, data from a survey by Markit Economics showed Wednesday.

 

The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector dropped to 48.5 in January from 48.9 in December. The latest reading matched the preliminary estimates. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector, while one above suggests growth.

 

New business received by French manufacturers dropped for the seventh consecutive month, reflecting the economic uncertainty among clients. The rate of decline was faster than that in December.

 

With incoming orders falling sharply, French manufacturers reduced their backlogs of work in January, at the sharpest rate since October.

 

Employment increased for the second consecutive month, but the rate of growth was only modest.

 

Input price inflation at manufacturers rose for the first time in four months, while output prices rose at the slowest pace since October 2011.

 

French consumer spending declined unexpectedly in December, figures published by the statistical office Insee showed Tuesday. In a separate report, the statistical office said producer prices decreased in December from the prior month.

 

Consumer spending dropped 0.7% in December from a month ago, reversing a 0.1% rise in November. Economists were expecting spending to log a monthly growth of 0.2%.

 

On an annual comparison, spending decreased 3.1% after falling 2.1% in November. The expected rate of decline for December was 2.1%.

 

Over the fourth quarter, consumption in goods remained stable, after rising 0.2% in the third quarter.

 

Producer prices in the French industry was down 0.1% month-on-month, in line with economists' expectations, after rising 0.4% in November. Year-on-year, producer prices were 4.7% higher in December. The annual growth also matched economists' forecast.

 

In foreign markets, producer prices rose 0.1% on a monthly basis, taking the annual growth to 2.4%.

 

The French economy is set to grow 0.5% this year, instead of 1%, Prime Minister Francois Fillon told reporters on Monday. The revision would cost the government around Eur 5 billion.

 

The revision was made to take into account the deterioration of the economic situation, he added.

 

However, the government will not resort to new austerity measures to meet deficit targets. The deficit target for this year is 4.5% of gross domestic product.

 

Fillon observed that introduction of 0.1% of financial transaction tax would generate Eur 500 million in 2012. Further, measures to counter tax evasion will create another Eur 300 million.

 

The efforts of the government and French people as well as very cautious budget will help to built the foundation of the budget without requiring extra effort from French people, said Fillon.

 

BELGIUM

 

The Bel 20 in Brussels ended the week at 2,304.58, up 1.43%.

 

Belgium fell back into recession in the second half of last year, data showed on Wednesday, the first Euro zone member not subject to a bailout programme to do so.

 

It paved the way for what is expected to be a very difficult 2012 for the 17-member bloc, both core economies and those in the debt-ridden periphery.

 

Gross domestic product (GDP) in Belgium, the bloc's sixth largest economy, shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, following a quarterly contraction of 0.1% in the July-Sept period.

 

Two consecutive quarters of contraction is generally accepted by economists as the minimum for an economy to be considered in a recession.

 

Belgium is often cited as a harbinger of things to come in Europe and many countries in the region are already sliding towards recession, hit by the Euro zone debt crisis and a wave of austerity required to cure it.

 

Economists said on Wednesday it had come as no surprise to see Belgium's recession confirmed. Indeed the 0.2% contraction was slightly better than some had expected.

 

Few also expect any improvement in the first three months of 2012, notably after the new Belgian government imposed austerity measures in December designed to save 11.3 billion Euros (9.3 billion pounds).

 

Private households in particular are downbeat, the consumer sentiment index falling to a two-and-a-half year low in January.

 

Economists broadly expected growth in the second quarter, the rate dependent on the health of trade partners. Belgium is among the most open economies in the world.

 

Year-on-year on Belgium grew 0.9% in the fourth quarter for a 1.9% total growth in 2011.

 

Belgium's first general strike in almost two decades brought parts of the country to a halt on Monday in an anti-austerity protest aimed at the new government and at EU leaders meeting in Brussels.

 

The rail network closed, buses and trams sat in depots, schools and shops shut and production stopped at the factories of many companies including carmakers Audi and Volvo, Coca Cola and imaging group Agfa-Gevaert.

 

Charleroi Airport, a hub for Ryanair and other low-cost carriers, was forced to cancel all flights due to union plans to block the access road.

 

Unions have called the general strike, Belgium's first since 1993, over government plans to raise the effective retirement age along with other measures designed to save 11.3 billion Euros.

 

Belgium has pledged to bring its public sector deficit below the EU limit of 3% of gross domestic product this year to avoid an EU fine and to reassure investors it has its finances under control.

 

The government knows growth this year will be below the 0.8% assumed for the budget drawn in December. A likely stagnation or contraction will force it to seek further savings when it revises the budget next month.

 

The battle lines are being drawn for that debate. The Socialists saying the rich should bear a greater burden, while the pro-business Liberals and centre-right Christian Democrats argue higher taxes would push the country into recession and government spending should be cut more.

 

Union leaders say they fear the government might be tempted to suspend its system of wage indexation, the linking of pay to inflation criticised by the European Commission and international economic organisations as driving up prices and undermining Belgium's competitive position.

 

Economists say a single skipping of an automatic pay hike could save the government at least 1 billion Euros.

 

For now, many Belgians appear to have accepted the need for austerity measures. According to an opinion poll in top-selling newspaper Het Laatste Nieuws last week, only 21% of Belgians supported the strike.

 

Union chiefs say they will decide after talks with the government over the next two weeks whether to strike again.

 

THE NETHERLANDS

 

In Amsterdam the AEX headed into the weekend on 326.33, up 1.01%.

 

For the Dutch, holders of the most mortgage debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, tax breaks on house payments are more than a government policy. They're a tradition under threat.

 

With debt levels at twice the European average, banks and politicians are applying pressure to change or abolish home-loan deductions, which have existed in the Netherlands since at least 1893. That's making buyers hesitate, freezing sales in a property market that's declined for three years, said Boele Staal, chairman of the Dutch Banking Association.

 

Eliminating or phasing out the deduction will make it harder for homeowners to keep up their payments and may hurt the Eur289 billion ($380 billion) Dutch residential mortgage-backed securities market, Europe's second-largest and most creditworthy, according to Standard & Poor's. The proposals come as investor demand for Dutch RMBS is climbing, narrowing spreads against benchmarks to the lowest in Europe.

 

So far, investors don't agree. The extra yield demanded to hold top-rated Dutch mortgage securities over benchmarks has narrowed 10 basis points this year to 155 basis points, or 1.55 percentage points, according to JPMorgan Chase. The spread has contracted from 425 basis points at the start of 2009. That compares to spreads of 610 basis points for Spanish home-loan bonds and 585 for debt tied to Italian borrowers.

 

Rabobank Groep's Obvion unit priced the first Dutch RMBS deal this year on Jan. 26, a 1.2 billion Euros transaction called Storm 2012-I. The deal was increased in size with a top-ranked 245 million Euros portion paying 110 basis points more than a lending benchmark.

 

As Europe's sovereign debt crisis roils the region, the prospect of rising unemployment and declining spending power is spurring Dutch policy makers to rein in spiraling debt.

 

Homebuyers can claim tax deductions on mortgage interest for 30 years, making it more affordable for them to stretch out repayment. That's also driven mortgage debt in the Netherlands to 107.1% of gross domestic product in 2010, according to the European Mortgage Federation, compared with more than 76% in the US

 

The Netherland's two biggest mortgage lenders, the national bank, the opposition labour Party and Christian Union parties and the biggest real-estate brokers group are pressing Prime Minister Mark Rutte's government to cut or revise the mortgage deductions as part of a broader housing plan.

 

Record-low interest rates from 2003 to 2005, tax breaks and competition between lenders helped fuel a Dutch mortgage boom. Banks typically offered home buyers loans for more than 4.5 times their annual salary and up to 110% of the value of the property, allowing borrowing for renovations.

 

As many as 15% of Dutch homeowners now owe more than the market value of their properties, said Central Bank President Klaas Knot.

 

"It will become a problem when you see unemployment rising and consumers may get into trouble paying interest," Knot said in an interview on Dutch television on Jan. 5. "The second problem is that the big mortgage debt distorts our banks' balance sheets."

 

Unemployment in the Netherlands was 4.5% in 2011, up from 3.7% in 2009 and is expected to rise to 5.25% in 2012, the country's Planning Agency said in December.

 

Dutch banks rely on external funding as there is a 480 billion-Euro gap between savings deposits with banks and loans to households and companies, according to the central bank. The cost of raising funds has increased amid Europe's debt crisis. Investors demand a spread of 201 basis points to hold Dutch bank debt, from 116 a year ago, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data.

 

Central Bank President Knot has suggested changing the tax deduction so it gradually declines over the life of the mortgage. ING Groep NV, the country's second-biggest mortgage lender, has proposed phasing out mortgage deductions gradually, accompanied by lower income taxes and an end to transaction taxes on home sales.

 

Dutch house prices have been falling since the third quarter of 2008 after more than doubling in the decade before that. Values, which had risen since 1985, dropped 4.1% in 2011 and may fall by another 5% this year, according to the Nederlandse Vereniging van Makelaars, a group representing Dutch property brokers. That would be a 15% decline from the 2008 peak.

 

About 227,000 homes were up for sale in the fourth quarter, a 76% increase from the third quarter of 2008, the NVM said. About 118,000 homes were sold in all of 2011, it said. Approximately 202,000 homes were sold in 2007, data from the National Statistics Bureau showed.

 

Producer price inflation in the Netherlands slowed for the third month in a row in December, data released by the Central Bureau of Statistics showed Monday.

 

Selling prices in the Dutch manufacturing industry rose 6.1% year-on-year in December, notably slower than the 7.7% growth seen in November. The rate of growth slowed for the third consecutive month.

 

Output prices of goods sold in the domestic market rose at a slower pace of 5.4% annually in December than the previous month's 6.8% growth. Prices in the export market grew 6.5% year-on-year, following November's 8.3% rise.

 

On a monthly basis, producer prices edged down 0.1% in December, reversing the previous month's 0.3% increase. In the whole of 2011, producer prices climbed 9.9% from the previous year, the agency said.

 

SWITZERLAND

 

Zurich's SMI drew a line under the trading week at 6,153.31, up 1.47%.

 

Switzerland posted an all-time high trade surplus in 2011, helped by strong trade in chemicals and chemical products, the Federal Customs Administration said Thursday.

 

The trade balance resulted in a surplus of CHF 23.8 billion in 2011, which is 22% higher than 2010. Chemical industry was the largest contributor to the favorable outcome with a trade balance of CHF 37 billion.

 

In 2011, exports climbed 2.1%, slower than 7.2% surge in 2010. Imports, meanwhile, fell 0.1% after 8.6% increase in the previous month.

 

During the fourth quarter, the trade surplus amounted to CHF 7.22 billion, higher than CHF 5.3 billion in the previous month.

 

In December, exports stagnated at CHF 15.6 billion, but grew 1.6% compared to a year earlier. Imports fell 5.3% year-on-year to CHF 13.6 billion.

 

Separately, the Federation of Swiss Watch Industry FH said that watch exports climbed 21% year-on-year in December, taking the total value of watch exports in 2011 to CHF 19.3 billion. This was 19.2% higher than a year earlier.

 

Switzerland's manufacturing sector shrank again in January, survey data from the SVME Association of Purchasing and Materials Management and Credit Suisse showed Wednesday.

 

The Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 47.3 points from revised 49.1 in the previous month. The expected reading for January was 51.2, suggesting expectations for an expansion in the sector at the start of the year.

 

The current level of the PMI would even indicate a decline in industrial activity in the months to come, the report said.

 

The data supports the assessment that there will be only weak growth in the Swiss economy this year. GDP is forecast to rise by only 0.5% in 2012.

 

Switzerland's consumption indicator recovered marginally in December, data from UBS bank showed Tuesday.

 

The UBS consumption indicator rose to 0.92 in December from 0.78 in November. The bank said its economists are confident that the consumption indicator has bottomed out and believe it could rise over the course of the year.

 

As in previous months, the indicator was boosted by the continually high volume of new car registrations, which grew 7.4% year-on-year in December compared to 13.9% increase in November.

 

Another factor in the increase was the retail sector's performance, which, although still at -12, showed a recovery from the previous months, the bank said.

 

AUSTRIA

 

The ATX in Vienna rounded out the trading session Friday on 2,215.62, up 2.07%.

 

Moody's Investors Service cut the senior debt rating on nationalised lender Kommunalkredit Austria two notches on Thursday, citing rising expectations its writedowns on Greek sovereign debt will come in higher than first thought.

 

Moody's also cut the bank's standalone financial strength rating to E, noting expectations KA will need to write down in 2011 results the lion's share of the 204 million Euro ($269 million) exposure to Greece it had as of mid-2011.

 

That represented around half KA's Tier 1 capital, Moody's said, adding it could not rule out a writedown to 30% of the notional value of Greek bonds given the latest talks on involving private investors in restructuring Greek debt.

 

KA can use reserves to help offset the impact of writedowns and can absorb losses of up to 30 million per year on its income statement, the agency noted, expecting KA to lose more than 100 million Euros in 2011.

 

KA Chief Executive Alois Steinbichler said he disagreed with the downgrade, noting the bank's restructuring efforts meant operating results were in good shape and that the outcome of Greek debt talks was still unclear.

 

He said KA would be able to absorb any hit on Greek debt without requiring any more state assistance.

 

The public-sector infrastructure finance specialist booked a 31.3 million Euro writedown on its Greek sovereign debt portfolio in August, all but wiping out its first-half profit.

 

State-owned KA is the healthy part split off from Kommunalkredit, the lender which Austria had to nationalise in 2008 during the financial crisis. The state aims to sell off the bank by the middle of next year.

 

KA Finanz is the "bad bank" that emerged from the revamp. KF has said it has nearly 1 billion Euros in Greek sovereign exposure, of which around 520 million is in the form of credit default swaps or total return swaps.

 

Telekom Austria Group announced that new subsidiary Telekom Austria Group M2M has had a first successful quarter.

 

Se­t up in September 2011, the new division reached its targets, winning 19 projects with a total value of Eur 5 million.

 

These contracts have been won across the transport and logistics, industry automation and payment systems markets. The M2M division will launch a comprehensive partner programme in spring 2012 to expand the existing partner network and solutions portfolio.

 

Activity in the Austrian manufacturing sector increased in January after falling for four months in a row, data from a survey by Markit Economics and Bank Austria showed Monday.

 

The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector rose to 51.8 in January from 49 in December. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while one below suggests decline. The index moved up after remaining below the non-change mark for four consecutive months.

 

Production in Austrian factories increased for the first time in seven months in January, and the rate of growth was substantial. New orders received by manufactures rose for the first time in eight months. However, new export orders continued to decrease during the month, though at a weaker pace.

 

Firms reduced their workforces modestly in January, marking the first decline in staffing levels in four months. Input costs increased during the month, after falling in the previous month. But, the rate of inflation was well below the series average.

 

SWEDEN

 

The OMX in Stockholm completed a hectic trading week on 1,078.66, up 1.18%.

 

Swedish appliance maker Electrolux saw its profits plunge in the fourth quarter in an increasingly competitive market as the pressure on prices increased and the sector was hit by higher raw-material costs and weaker demand.

 

Electrolux reported Thursday a net profit of just 6 million Kronor ($885,000) in the fourth quarter, far below the 860 million posted in the same three-month period a year ago.

 

Aside from tougher market conditions, particularly in Western Europe, Electrolux also said the bottom-line figures took a hit from one-time costs amounting to 825 million kronor. These were mainly due to a number of cost-saving measures that included reviewing staff levels. Electrolux didn't specify how many workers have been, or will be, laid off.

 

CEO Keith McLoughlin said his company has been seeking to raise prices, lower costs and buy companies in emerging markets in order to offset the tough conditions.

 

The company is also continuing its strategy of developing and launching new products.

 

McLoughlin said "2012 will be an intensive launch year," but that it will require more investment in marketing and product development.

 

Swedish telecommunications firm TeliaSonera Thursday reported a decline in fourth-quarter profit, despite a small increase in revenues and margin improvement. Looking ahead, the company believes its revenues and earnings in local currencies will continue to grow in 2012 despite macroeconomic and industrial challenges, but it sees a flat margin for the year.

 

In the fourth quarter, net income attributable to owners of the parent decreased to 4.97 billion Swedish kronor from 5.31 billion kronor in the previous year. On a per share basis, earnings were 1.15 kronor, lower than 1.18 kronor in the year-ago quarter.

 

In reported currency, EBITDA increased 2.1% to 9.19 billion kronor from 9 billion kronor n the prior year. EBITDA margin was 33.9%, up from 33.5% a year earlier. EBITDA, excluding non-recurring items, increased 3.2% in local currencies and excluding acquisitions.

 

Non-recurring items affecting operating income totaled 308 million kronor, which included charges of about 300 million kronor related to efficiency measures, the company noted.

 

More than $1.2 billion of loans will be used to back private equity firm CVC's buyout of Sweden's largest supplier of tools and building materials Ahlsell, bankers said on Thursday.

 

It is the largest loan to back a leveraged buyout in Western Europe since global payments services business WorldPay's acquisition by Advent International and Bain Capital in 2010, and the largest buyout loan in EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) since Polish telecoms firm Polkomtel in August 2011.

 

CVC entered exclusive talks for Ahlsell in January following an auction process and sellers Cinven and Goldman Sachs Capital Partners had been seeking some 16 billion Swedish Crowns ($2.4 billion) for the business.

 

CVC is now in discussions with banks including Goldman Sachs, Nordea and Deutsche Bank over a debt package which will come in at more than $1.2 billion, denominated in Euros and Swedish Crowns, or just over 4 times the company's EBITDA (earnings before, interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation).

 

Sweden's manufacturing sector expanded in January, contrary to economists expectations for a contraction, data from a survey by Swedbank showed Wednesday.

 

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector rose to 51.4 in January from 48.9 in December. Economists were looking for a reading of 49.5. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while one below suggests decline. The sector expanded for the first time since mid last year.

 

New orders received by manufacturers increased markedly during the month, supported mainly by strong order growth in the domestic market.

 

Production in Swedish factories increased in January, though at a slower pace. Meanwhile, firms continued to reduce their workforces, amid uncertainties about the business cycle.

 

DENMARK

 

Copenhagen's OMX closed out the Friday trading session on 432.89, up 2.10%.

 

ATP, the €78bn Danish national pension fund, recorded its best ever financial return in 2011, despite the markets stalling in the second half of the year.

 

It made an overall return on assets of 26% - that amounts to Dkr125bn, or €16.8bn, it said Friday morning.

 

This impressive looking result was mostly due to a hedging strategy, which enabled it to keep ahead of substantial growth in its financial liabilities resulting from low interest rates. But ATP also took further risk-reducing steps in the middle of 2011, selling off assets such as equities, credit and commodities, which helped protect the fund against falling markets.

 

Lars Rohde, ATP's chief investment officer, told Financial News Friday: "We are currently using only a small fraction of our available 'risk budget', so we may increase our allocations to these return-seeking assets this year. But we still think we are in for a rollercoaster ride in the markets, so we will be very cautious."

 

Pension funds' liabilities, or the total value of all the pensions they have promised to pay, are calculated using expectations of what interest rates will be in the coming decades. These expectations are indicated through the real-time market for long-dated bonds, or prices in the related swap markets.

 

These markets have been dramatically affected by the ongoing Eurozone crisis. Central banks have set rates low in an attempt to stimulate growth through policies such as quantitative easing - bond-buying - and investors have flocked to government bonds considered low-risk, such as UK gilts, German bunds or indeed Danish government bonds.

 

As a result of all these factors, ATP said its liabilities increased by €16bn during 2011 - almost as much as its assets grew. Around €14bn of this was due to falling interest rates while another €2bn was the result of a tax bill.

 

ATP's hedging strategy, which aims to insulate the fund's exposure to Danish interest rates, mostly through swaps, did what it was intended to last year - though not 100% perfectly. It covered the fund against most of the liability increase, but recorded a small €1.5bn loss.

 

Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk reported Thursday that its fourth-quarter profits soared 19% on the back of strong sales of its key diabetes drugs Victoza, NovoRapid and Levemir.

 

The world's biggest insulin maker in terms of sales said net profit in the last three months of 2011 reached 4.68 billion kroner ($825 million), up from 3.95 billion kroner in the same three-month period in 2010.

 

Sales in the quarter rose 12% to 18.12 billion kroner ($3.2 billion) from 16.12 billion.

 

Net profits for the full year 2011 came in at 17.1 billion kroner ($3 billion), up 19% from 14.4 billion kroner in 2010.

 

In 2011, Novo Nordisk said sales of modern insulins, human insulins and protein-related products in North America rose by 9% in local currencies, of which sales in China increased by 10%.

 

Chief Executive Lars Rebien Soerensen described the past 12 months as having been "a very positive year," adding the Copenhagen-based group saw "significant progress for our portfolio of clinical development projects."

 

The company's shares rose nearly 5% to 713 kroner in Copenhagen after the release of the earnings report.

 

For the year ahead, it said it expects sales growth of 7 to 11%, which is about 4 percentage points higher than initially expected.

 

Denmark's manufacturing outlook index remained unchanged from the previous month in January, data released by Statistics Denmark showed Monday.

 

The seasonally adjusted manufacturing outlook index, which assesses expectations of industrial firms in the next three months, remained unchanged at 5 in January.

 

Meanwhile, the indicator of production outlook for the three-month period dropped to 15 in January from 18 in the previous month.

 

The unadjusted indicator of finished stocks held flat during the month, after recording a reading of 1 in December. The unadjusted indicator of stock of orders, meanwhile, rose to 1 from -1 in the previous month.

 

FINLAND

 

In Helsinki the OMX finished the week at 6,022.15, up 1.33%.

 

Outokumpu, Finland's biggest stainless-steel producer, tumbled 22%, the largest decline since 2008.

 

Nasdaq OMX Helsinki, home to Nokia, is pleading with companies to list their shares on Finland's main exchange and end a drought in initial public offerings that threatens to send equity investors elsewhere.

 

Investors are crying out for more companies to list" in Finland, Lauri Rosendahl, the president of the exchange, a unit of Nasdaq OMX Group, said in an interview at the bourse on Tuesday. "There is a capital market out there that is willing to invest in good companies."

 

Last year, there were "zip, zero" new companies selling shares on the Helsinki exchange and only one spinoff in 2010, in which a firm listed a part of its business separately, Rosendahl said. That compares with a total of 53 entrants during the information technology boom of 1999 and 2000. In neighboring Stockholm, there were 29 IPOs last year.

 

The European debt crisis "has definitely hurt listings" both in Europe and the US, Rosendahl said. The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 11% last year, while the Nasdaq OMX Helsinki all-share index plunged 30%. Both indexes have risen this year.

 

Rosendahl said companies are reluctant to list in part because of a perception that such a move brings with it stricter regulatory requirements and increased costs. Also, "there's a little bit of a culture where companies are used to growing based on the cash flow they can produce themselves," he said.

 

The latest listings in Helsinki include Finnish bank Aktia in September 2009 and builder SRV, which sold shares in 2007 to help fund expansion into Russia. Paint maker Tikkurila was spun off from chemicals producer Kemira in 2010.

 

A major revamp at Nokia that includes a deal to use Microsoft software in its smartphones will impact the earnings of the Finnish handset maker throughout most of this year, Chairman Jorma Ollila said on Wednesday.

 

"For a significant part of the year the transition will be seen in the results," Ollila told Finnish national broadcaster YLE.

 

Last week, when Nokia reported a 73% fall in fourth-quarter earnings, it said it was not able to give forecasts beyond the first quarter.

 

A year ago, the world's largest cellphone maker by volume unveiled a major strategy shift to Microsoft software for its smartphones in an attempt to challenge the Apple Inc iPhone and Google Inc's Android.

 

The sales of its new Windows Phones have so far failed to dent the dominance of Apple and Google, but Ollila said the situation would change and, as the Windows Phone is a completely new platform, the take-off will take time.

 

"Nokia will make it into the three, its completely obvious and the first signs are already there," he said. "None of the operating systems have taken off quickly. It will take time, as we have seen, and as was expected."

 

Nokia said last week it sold more than one million Windows Phones in over two months, with developers showing increasing interest. Apple sold 37 million iPhones last quarter.

 

Finland's manufacturing turnover increased from last year in the three months ended October, data released by Statistics Finland showed Thursday.

 

Turnover in the manufacturing sector rose 6.4% on an annual basis in the August-October period. Sales in the domestic market advanced 8.2% annually, while in the export market they grew 4.8%.

 

Turnover in the mining and quarrying industry advanced 9.6% annually, while turnover in the chemical industry climbed 17.3% during the three-month period.

 

There was an 8.8% growth in turnover in the food industry during the month, and a 4.6% rise in the metal industry.

 

German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp has agreed in principle to sell its stainless steel unit Inoxum to Finland's Outokumpu in a deal valued at 2.7 billion Euros or $3.6 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, citing a person familiar with the matter.

 

According to the WSJ report, ThyssenKrupp's supervisory board is expected to make a decision on the sale at a meeting Tuesday afternoon. In the meantime, both companies are said to be continuing with their efforts to convince ThyssenKrupp workers and labour union IG Metall of the potential benefits of the deal. IG Metall has been repeatedly demanding concessions from Outokumpu, including an extension of mandatory benefits.

 

Under the deal, Outokumpu will reportedly buy ThyssenKrupp's Inoxum unit for a cash sum and also acquire ThyssenKrupp debt that is likely to total three figures in millions of Euros. Meanwhile, ThyssenKrupp will acquire a stake of just below 30% in Outokumpu and retain that stake for at least a year.

 

The sale of ThyssenKrupp's Inoxum unit to Outokumpu would create the world's largest maker of stainless steel, with 18,000 employees and more than 10 billion Euros in annual revenue.

 

According to the WSJ report, stainless-steel smelters at ThyssenKrupp's Krefeld and Bochum plants are likely to be closed under the deal to solve teh problem of overcapacity, while the rolling capacities at the Krefeld plant would be expanded.

 

Last Monday, ThyssenKrupp confirmed it is in talks with Outokumpu regarding the merger of its Inoxum unit. ThyssenKrupp said that all options, including an initial public offering, a spin off or a sale to another investor, remained open for Inoxum.

 

NORWAY

 

Oslo's OBX pulled the curtains on the trading session Friday at 377.58, up 1.21%.

 

Norway faces hurdles in maintaining economic growth as a deteriorating global outlook hurts exports and rising household debt spurs imbalances in the housing market, the International Monetary Fund said.

 

The country's mainland economy, which excludes oil and shipping output, will grow 2.2% this year, after expanding an estimated 2.6% in 2011, the IMF said in an Article IV report Friday. Unemployment will stay at 3.6%, the group said.

 

"The challenge going forward will be to continue stable growth in the face of a difficult near-term global outlook while at the same time reducing vulnerabilities arising from long-run fiscal pressures and high levels of household debt and house prices," the Washington-based group said.

 

The IMF said it welcomed regulatory efforts to tighten mortgage lending to an 85% loan-to-value ratio, and also recommended the country raise minimum risk weights on mortgage loans at banks, in coordination with other Nordic countries.

 

House prices rose an annual 8.4% in January, according to Norway's Real Estate Brokers Association, while consumer credit growth hovers at more than 7%. The central bank estimates private debt burdens will grow to more than 204% of disposable income this year.

 

Norway, the world's seventh-largest oil exporter, has been shielded from the worst of the debt crisis as its crude revenue generates surpluses and unemployment remains close to 3%. The central bank in December cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.75% to shield the economy from the fallout of Europe's debt crisis.

 

The IMF also said that it supports a "broadly neutral fiscal stance in the short term," and that current monetary policy is "appropriate."

 

Norway's unemployment decreased in January, while demand for labour increased, data from the Norwegian labour and Welfare Service (NAV) showed Thursday.

 

The number of unemployed fell by seasonally adjusted 3,400 in January. The jobless rate came in at 2.8%, in line with economists' expectations.

 

The number of registered unemployed totaled 71,500 in January, down 9,800 persons, or 12% from the previous year.

 

Sales, in terms of volume, declined a seasonally adjusted 0.3% month-on-month in December, against economists' expectations for a 0.2% growth. The figure excludes sales of motor vehicles.

 

Grocery trade contributed to the decline, the statistical office said. On an unadjusted basis, retail sales, excluding automobiles, grew 2.2% compared to the same month of the previous year.

 

The non-adjusted volume index increased 1.3% in the three-month period ended December compared to the same period in 2010.

 

SPAIN

 

The IBEX in Madrid drew to a close Friday on 8,861.20, up 1.01%.

 

Spain successfully sold more debt than planned at an auction on Thursday that saw declining borrowing costs.

 

The Spanish Treasury raised Eur 4.56 billion from the sale of government bonds known as Bonos. That exceeded the Eur 3.5 billion - Eur 4.5 billion target set for the auction.

 

The yield on the 4% July 2015 bond dropped to 2.861% from 3.384% in an auction last month. Demand for the 3-year debt was 1.63 times the offer, down from 1.80 in the previous sale.

 

The country paid 3.455% on the 2016 bond, less than the 4.021% in the previous sale last month. The bid-to-cover ratio rose to 3.57 from 3.24.

 

The agency placed the January 2017 bond at an average yield of 3.565%, sharply down from 5.544% in the previous auction in December. Demand was broadly unchanged at 2.7 times the offer.

 

Spain's unemployment increased by 177,470 in January from the prior month, data released by the labour Ministry showed Thursday. The unemployment rose by 4.01% in January to 4.6 million.

 

Spain has the highest jobless rate in the 17-nation currency bloc. On a seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment totaled 4.47 million, up 45,581 from December.

 

Unemployment in agriculture rose by 6,282 and increased by 15,105 in industry. In construction, unemployment rose 16,347 and climbed 132,581 in services. The group without previous employment grew by 7,155.

 

Spain's annual inflation slowed further in January, according to the flash estimate published by the statistical office INE, on Tuesday.

 

Inflation, as measured by the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), came in at 2%, down from 2.4% in December. Economists were expecting the annual rate to slow slightly to 2.3% in January.

 

Consumer price inflation also eased in January to 2% from 2.4% in December. The statistical office is slated to publish final data on February 15.

 

Eurozone inflation slowed in December to 2.7%. But it has been staying above the central bank's target of 'below, but close to 2%' since December 2010.

 

PORTUGAL

 

Lisbon's PSI General concluded the week Friday at 2,175.61, up 1.55%.

 

Portugal successfully raised its maximum target at an auction of its short-term debt on Wednesday at lower cost, despite increasing concerns over the country's economic outlook.

 

The debt agency IGCP sold Eur 1.5 billion of treasury bills in the sale, reaching the top-end of its target range of Eur 1.25 billion and Eur 1.5 billion.

 

The agency placed Eur 750 million treasury bills maturing on May 18 at an average yield of 4.068%, down from 4.346% in the previous sale on January 18. The bid-to-cover ratio, however, fell to 2.8 from 4.1.

 

The country also sold Eur 750 million of debt maturing on July 20. The yield on the paper dropped to 4.463% from 4.740% in the previous auction on January 18. Demand was 2.6 times the offer, down from 3 in the previous sale.

 

At the start of the week, Portuguese bond yields climbed to the highest level in Eurozone's history amid concerns that the country may follow Greece in seeking a second bailout to avoid a bankruptcy. The yield on 10-year Portuguese bonds over German Bunds exceeded 15% for the first time in the Euro era.

 

All the three international rating agencies have downgraded Portugal debt ratings to "junk". The economy is currently in recession and the gross domestic product shrunk 0.6% in the third quarter.

 

Portugal's economic confidence continued to weaken in January, data released by Statistics Portugal showed Monday.

 

The economic confidence index dropped to -4.7 in January from -4.4 in December. In November and October, the readings were -3.9 and -3.4 respectively. The indicator started its downward trend in October 2010.

 

Among components, the consumer confidence index dropped to -57.1 in January from -56.8 in the previous month. The sub-index that measures confidence among Portuguese manufacturers declined to -24.1 in January from -22 in December.

 

The services confidence index fell to -30.6 from -28.9, while the indicator of confidence in the trade sector edged up to -22.9 from -23, the agency said.

 

ITALY

 

The FTSE Mibtel in Milan closed the week on 16,439.60, up a round 1.00%.

 

The Italian manufacturing sector contracted at a slower pace in January, data from a survey by Markit Economics and ADACI showed Wednesday.

 

The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector rose to 46.8 in January from 44.3 in December. Economists expected the PMI to remain unchanged. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector, while one above suggests growth.

 

New business received by manufacturing firms decreased at a slower pace in January. Reflecting the fall in new orders, production also declined during the month, though at a slower pace.

 

Italian manufacturers reduced their workforce at a faster pace in January, marking the sixth consecutive monthly reduction. Backlogs of decreased for the ninth month running, highlighting the excess capacity at firms operating in the manufacturing sector.

 

Input price inflation accelerated to the sharpest in seven months in January, owing mainly to higher transport costs and unfavorable exchange rates. Meanwhile, output prices remained almost unchanged during the month.

 

Unemployment rate in Italy rose modestly in December, data from the statistical office Istat showed Tuesday.

 

The unemployment rate advanced to 8.9% in December from 8.8% in November. Economists expected the rate to rise to 8.7% from November's originally reported 8.6%.

 

The rate was 0.8 percentage point higher than the same month of the previous year. Unemployment rate among youth, on the other hand, declined 0.2 percentage points from a month earlier to 31%.

 

The number of unemployed rose 0.9% on a monthly basis to 2.243 million. On an annual basis, there was an increase of 10.9% in the number of unemployed.

 

The employment rate remained steady at 56.9% in December. During the month, there was a 0.1% decrease in the number of employed persons. Compared to November, the number of employed persons remained unchanged.

 

Italy raised Eur 7.5 billion from bond issue on Monday, close to the maximum target set for the auction.

 

The Treasury sold maximum Eur 2 billion benchmark 10-year bonds, with the demand exceeded the offer by 1.42 times. The yield on the issue eased to 6.08% from 6.98% logged on December 29.

 

The Treasury also sold Eur 3.57 billion 5-year bonds at a gross yield of 5.39% compared to 6.47% at the prior auction of similar securities. The demand exceeded the offer by 1.3 times.

 

It also raised Eur 746 million from the issue of bonds due on April 2016 and Eur 1.16 billion in bonds maturing on March 2021. The bid-to-cover ratio on bonds maturing in 2016 was 1.87 and that on bonds due in 2021 came in at 1.5.

 

This was the first issue after Fitch Ratings downgraded Italy's bond ratings to 'A-' from 'A+' last Friday.

 

EU leaders and finance ministers are set to meet in Brussels Friday. The informal meeting will discuss the steps to be taken by the EU in order to overcome the current debt crisis and tackle its consequences.

 

GREECE

 

In Athens, the Athex Composite ended both the session and the week on 762.15, down 3.82% on the session.

 

Most Greek chief executives are reviewing their companies' strategies and almost half see further job cuts this year, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP said.

 

Ninety% of CEOs are reviewing their strategy and 54% made job cuts in the past 12 months, according to an e- mailed statement from PwC's Greek unit, which interviewed 45 Greek company chiefs between September and December as part of a global survey. Forty-one% expect more cuts in workforce this year.

 

Both the figures for job cuts in the past 12 months and expected future cuts were the highest for any country in the Euro region, PwC said. Eighty-two% of CEOs said they were unhappy with their tax burden in Greece and cited that as a reason for turning to overseas markets.

 

Ninety-three% of CEOs interviewed said they lacked confidence in the government's policies for handling the economic crisis, compared with 85% in the year-earlier survey.

 

Vodafone and Wind Hellas have agreed to merge Wind with Vodafone's Greek subsidiary, with an announcement likely by 9 February.

Vodafone shareholders will hold a 60% stake in the combined operator, while Wind's shareholders will own the remaining 40%.

Vodafone group owns 99.878% of Vodafone Greece. Wind Hellas is not connected with Wind in Italy or elsewhere - as the then heavily indebted Greek operation was restructured in October 2010 and taken over by new owners.

 

Senior secured bondholders, including a unit of Providence Equity and distressed debt funds Mount Kellet Capital, Angelo Gordon and Anchorage Advisors, took 100% of the company's shares in return for agreeing to wipe out €1.2 billion of debt.

 

The head of Greece's state-controlled horseracing company was arrested Wednesday on charges that the corporation withheld taxes and owed debts of €83 million ($109 million) to the state, officials said.

 

The detention of Alexandros Zaharis, head of Horseracing Organization of Greece SA., or ODIE, is the latest of several arrests for debts to the state in the near-bankrupt country. But it is the first involving an official from a company in the broader state sector.

 

A police official confirmed Zaharis' arrest on condition of anonymity in line with police rules.

 

Police say ODIE failed to pay the state some €277,000 ($365,000) in withheld taxes on profits and a further €741,000 ($976,000) in other dues between January and May 2011, in addition to the €83 million debt.

 

The criminal charges, if proved in court, carry a minimum five-year prison sentence.

 

Beset by flagging revenues, rampant tax evasion and an inefficient tax collection system, the government has toughened tax fraud laws and cracked down on debtors, naming more than 4,000 individuals from the private sector who allegedly owe up to €1 billion ($1.3 billion) in taxes.

 

In the second half of December alone, 492 arrest warrants were issued over debts to the state and tax evasion, the financial prosecutor's office said Wednesday.

 

A list of corporate debtors was topped by the state railways and included several public sector entities.

 

Total outstanding debts to the state reach an estimated €60 billion ($78 billion) - little more than a tenth of which is seen as collectible.

 

ODIE, which is fully state-owned, is due for privatization this year under the government's ambitious plans to sell or lease €50 billion ($66 billion) worth of state assets by 2015.

 

The privatizations are part of a program of harsh austerity and sweeping market and public sector reforms pledged in return for the international rescue loans that are keeping Greece solvent.

 

The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....

 UK MarketsCar insurer Admiral Group topped the FTSE 100 on Friday as improving economic data drove the index to a six-month high.

 

 There was a strong market reaction to confirmation that the Cardiff-based company had extended its existing reinsurance partnerships until 2014 at no extra cost. Admiral's shares rose 7.9% to £10.38. The gains were enough to draw in Admiral's peers. Old Mutual was 4.2% higher at 157.8p. Aviva was 3.7% stronger at 377p and RSA Insurance was 2.7% higher at 112.7p.

 

Analysts welcomed the news, but also started to look at calling time on holdings in the stock on valuation grounds after its 18.2% advance since the start of 2012.

 

The FTSE 100 rose 105 points to 5,901.07, a gain of 1.8% - which took it to its best level since early August. The rally was helped by a broad return to risk across global markets inspired by stronger than expected jobs creation data from the US.

 

 London's gains were broad-based, with only six FTSE 100 stocks falling. Over the week, the index rose 2.9%, its best five-day gain since the first week of December.

 

 The mood was also helped by strong purchasing managers' data for the dominant services sector of the UK economy, which showed a surprise expansion and soothed the worst fears about the outlook for growth. It was the strongest such reading since March of last year.

 

Mid-cap support services stocks rose after the UK data.

 

Recruitment consultant Hays was 7.3% stronger at 85.8p. Logica, the IT outsourcer, was 4.2% higher at 81.2p. The FTSE 250 finished 1.3% higher at 11,235.15, a rise of 149 points, taking its gain so far this year to 11.2%.

 

 Back on the top tier, Glencore and Xstrata continued to rise in step with their merger plans. Glencore was 4.5% higher at 482.6p, still some way off its 530p flotation price from May last year, but higher than Wednesday's closing price of 431.8p, before news of the merger broke on Thursday morning. Xstrata moved 4.3% higher during Friday 's session to £12.83, after closing at £11.19 on Wednesday.

 

Financial stocks had a bullish week as traders bets that an unruly Greek debt default would be avoided. The optimism lingered even as talks on private sector writedowns on Greek debt dragged on.

 

Hedge fund manager Man Group was the second-best performer in the FTSE 100 with a rise of 7.8% to 136.7p. Lloyds Banking Group rose 5.1% to 34.4p, while Barclays was 4.2% higher at 237½p.

 

 BT Group, the fixed-line telecoms operator, gained 3.9% to 214p after reporting its third-quarter numbers. Top-line earnings came in at £1.5bn, meeting market forecasts, thanks to growth in subscribers for its broadband services.

 

 ITV, the free-to-air commercial broadcaster, moved ahead after analysts at Goldman Sachs lifted their price target on the stock from 84p to 102p. The shares rose 4.8% to 79.4p.

 

 Thursday's poorly-received fourth-quarter numbers from Royal Dutch Shell continued to reverberate. They drew attention to the low price of natural gas in US markets, and rising extraction costs. Shell fell 0.2% to £22.61.

Tullow Oil was lifted by news of fresh production agreements with the government of Uganda, helping its shares rise 1.5% to £14.62.

 

UK house prices declined for a second month in a row in January as poor labour market conditions and challenging economic conditions weighed on housing demand, data from the Nationwide Building Society revealed Wednesday.

 

House prices were down 0.2% month-on-month in January, the same rate of decline seen in December and also matched economists' forecast.

 

At the same time, annual growth in house prices slowed unexpectedly to 0.6% from 1% in December. The annual rate was forecast to rise to 1.2% in January. A typical house costs GBP 162,228, the lowest since February 2011.

 

The number of loan approvals for house purchase in December totaled 52,939 compared to 52,628 in the previous month, the Bank of England said Tuesday. The figure was smaller than the expected level of 54,000.

 

Total lending to individuals rose by GBP 0.4 billion in December, smaller than last month's GBP 1 billion increase. Within total lending, lending secured on dwellings rose by GBP 0.7 billion or 0.1% from the prior month.

 

Meanwhile, consumer credit fell by GBP 0.4 billion in December, reversing November's GBP 0.4 billion increase.

 

In a separate report, the BoE said M4 money supply declined at a faster pace of 1.4% month-on-month in December after falling 0.5% in November. On a yearly basis, the decline in M4 remained unchanged at 2.5%.

 

British consumer confidence climbed to its highest level in seven months in January despite concerns over the economy sliding into a recession, a survey by research group GfK NOP showed Tuesday.

 

The consumer confidence index improved to -29 in January from -33 in December. Economists had forecast a modest rise to -32. The index now stood at the same level as that of January 2011.

Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....

Asiapac IndicesJAPAN
 
 

Japanese stocks declined, with the Topix Index snapping a streak of five weekly advances amid the busiest week of the earnings season, after Nippon Sheet Glass and Oji Paper slashed profit forecasts.

 

 Nippon Sheet Glass, which depends on Europe for 40% of its sales, tumbled 12% after forecasting a loss. Oji Paper slumped 3.8%. Gree, a social networking site whose shares doubled in the last year, paced gains on the Topix after beating estimates.

 

The Topix, Japan's broadest equity gauge, lost 0.2% to 760.69 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo. For the week, the gauge posted a 0.1% decline, the first drop since the period ended 23 December. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.5% to 8,831.93 Friday.

 

Japan's Finance Minister Jun Azumi on Thursday stepped up his warning against excessive Yen gains and said the government is ready to take decisive steps to weaken the currency.

 

He said that speculative moves are rising and this development can not be overlooked. The renewed strength of the Yen once again is threatening the country's foreign trade and hampered the economy's prospects of recovery.

 

Japan posted its first annual trade deficit since 1980 with a shortfall of JPY 2.49 trillion in 2011, data from the Finance Ministry showed Friday. This largely reflected the fallout from Japan's worst earthquake on record in March. The Yen's rise as well as debt troubles in Europe have also eroded the country's export gains.

 

The recent rally in the currency was caused by market expectations that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at "exceptionally low levels" until 2014, Azumi told Parliament Friday.

 

Economists say that the Finance Minister's remarks may be indicative of another currency intervention from the authorities to contain the currency's strength after last year's record Yen sales.

 

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa reportedly said on Thursday that the appreciation of Yen was mainly caused by the safe-haven capital inflows triggered by global economic uncertainty.

 

SOUTH KOREA

 

South Korean shares ended bearish on Friday after rallying for three straight days as investors took cautious stance ahead of the announcement of the US monthly jobs data, analysts said.

 

 The benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) fell 11. 96 points, or 0.6%, to close at 1,972.34. Trading volume stood at 530.95 million shares worth 7.42 trillion won (6.64 billion US Dollars).

 

 The KOSPI took a weak start, and stayed in negative terrain throughout the session as investors were cautiously awaiting the US non-farm payrolls, which always set the tone for the market in a week or two.

 

Offshore investors turned to net sellers after buying local shares worth a whopping 1 trillion won or so in the previous session. Foreigners sold a net 141.8 billion won worth of local stocks, but they bought a total of more than 7 trillion won in stocks for this year.

 

 Globally ample liquidity and positive views on the South Korea' s economic fundamentals led foreigners to invest massive funds into the local stock market. According to the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), foreign buying of local listed stocks hit a new record high of 6.2 trillion won last month.

 

Meanwhile, local institutions kept their selling spree for the ninth consecutive session by offloading a net 270.4 billion won worth of shares, but retail investors were net buyers worth 347.7 billion won.

 

 Most large-cap shares ended lower. Market bellwether Samsung Electronics dipped 1.3% to 1,066,000 won, but its local rival LG Electronics edge up 0.22% to 90,700 won. Memory chip giant Hynix Semiconductor dropped 3.66% to 26,300, and flat screen maker LG Display tumbled 4.27% to 29,150 won on foreign selling.

 

 The world's largest shipyard Hyundai Heavy Industries plunged 7. 72% to 293,000 won after announcing negative earnings results. The shipbuilder's operating profit plunged 62.4% on-year to 405 billion won in the fourth quarter.

 

South Korean banks' new lending rates to households declined at the end of the year, the Bank of Korea said Monday.

 

The average interest rate on new loans dropped 14 basis points to 5.69% in December. The average interest rate on outstanding amounts of loans as of end-December was 6.01%, down 4 basis points from the preceding month.

 

The interest rate on loans extended to households eased to 5.37% from 5.60%.

 

Meanwhile, the average interest rate on new deposits came in at 3.77%, up 8 basis points from 3.69% for November.

 

HONG KONG

 

Hong Kong shares ended flat Friday ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that's likely to provide more clues on the health of the world's largest economy.

 

The blue-chip Hang Seng Index rose 17.53 points, or 0.08%, to 20,756.98 after trading between 20,639.49 and 20,796.74 during the session. The index jumped 1.2% this week and has risen 13% so far this year.

 

Market volume totaled HK$63.44 billion, down from HK$75.17 billion Thursday, as some investors may prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data later.

 

Hutchison Whampoa, the best-performing blue chip, rose 3.3% to HK$76.40 after the conglomerate agreed to buy Austria's third-largest mobile operator for about 1.3 billion euros including debt.

 

Bucking the trend, oil stocks fell on the back of Thursday's weaker oil prices. China PetroChina slid 1.2% to HK$11.48 and Sinopec fell 0.1% to HK$9.62.

 

Retailer Belle fell 0.7% to HK$13.52 on profit-taking after rallying 11.8% over three sessions.

 

Hong Kong's retail sales increased at a steady pace in December, data released by the Census and Statistics Department showed Thursday.

 

Retail sales value increased 23.4% year-on-year in December, at the same pace as in the previous month. However, economists expected a weaker growth of 20.5%.

 

In volume terms, retail sales advanced 17.1% on an annual basis in December, following the previous month's 16.9% growth. Economists were looking for an increase of 15.1%.

 

In the January-December period, retail sales value advanced 24.8% from a year earlier. In volume terms, sales climbed 18.4%. Looking ahead, the improved income conditions should continue to augur well for the retail business in the near term, with the prevailing strength of inbound tourism rendering additional support, a government spokesperson said.

 

CHINA

 

China's shares ended higher Friday, led by follow-through buying in financials because of undemanding valuations and gains in gold miners on the back of stronger gold prices.

 

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, ended up 0.8%, or 17.85 points, at 2330.41, adding to Thursday's 2.0% rise. The index rose 0.5% this week, gaining for the third consecutive week.

 

The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.5%, or 12.57 points, to 878.29.

 

Analysts said they expect the market to consolidate at current levels next week if Beijing doesn't release any major good news--like another cut in the reserve-requirement ratio for banks--over the weekend.

 

Among financials, insurers were among the best performers for the second consecutive session, because of their attractive valuations.

 

Insurers were trading at 1.1 to 1.6 times 2012 forecast embedded value, a relatively low level, he added. Embedded value represents the future profits an insurer's existing life-insurance policies are expected to generate.

 

China Pacific Insurance rose 2.1% to CNY21.86, adding to a 3.7% rise on Thursday; Ping An Insurance climbed 1.3% to CNY40.15 after soaring 6% Thursday; while China Life Insurance advanced 1.2% to CNY19.32 after Thursday's 4.0% rise.

 

Gold miners strengthened after gold futures settled at their highest level in 11 weeks Thursday after U.S. Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the pace of the U.S. recovery was frustratingly slow--comments that were viewed as supportive of accommodative monetary policy.

 

Zijin Mining gained 0.9% to CNY4.50 after saying Friday that it forecasts a 20% rise in 2011 net profit to CNY5.80 billion, buoyed by higher prices for gold and other major products; Zhongjin Gold added 1.2% to CNY22.42, while Shandong Gold-Mining advanced 3.5% to 35.62.

 

The final HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose slightly to 48.8 in January compared with 48.7 in December, latest survey results from Markit/HSBC showed Wednesday.

 

However, the final PMI reading was unchanged from a preliminary reading of 48.8.

 

The headline index has now posted below the 50.0 no change mark, signaling contraction, for three months in succession, HSBC said.

 

TAIWAN

 

Taiwan share prices moved in ranged trade Friday amid cautious sentiment ahead of the release of the US jobless report for December, dealers said.

 

Despite the limited fluctuations, the index managed itself well above 7,600 points as bargain hunting remained active, focusing on stocks of relatively low valuations, such as flat panel makers, while select old economy shares, including auto firms, also attracted buying, they said.

 

The weighted index closed up 22.53 points or 0.29% at the day's high of 7,674.99, off an early low of 7,608.41, on turnover of NT$152.73 billion (US$5.16 billion).

 

The market opened 4.37 points higher on a lackluster performance on Wall Street overnight and moved to the day's low as profit taking set in with some investors attempting to pocket the gains they built in the past few sessions, dealers said.

 

However, some other investors picked up bargains in late trade to boost the index back to positive territory by the end of the session, they said.

 

Flat panel firms were among the stocks favored by bargain hunters as there have been signs that screen prices have been stabilizing with Chimei Innolux up 7%, the maximum daily increase, at NT$15.70 and AU Optronics up 2.65% at NT$17.40.

 

However, Advanced Semiconductor Engineering, one of Taiwan's leading integrated circuit packaging and testing service providers, fell 1.42% to close at NT$27.80, off a low of NT$26.90, on its worse-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter of this year.

 

During the session, the machinery and electronics sector scored the highest gains among the eight largest sectors of the market, finishing up 0.46%. Cement stocks rose 0.36%, financials added 0.29%, plastics and chemicals gained 0.06%, and the paper and pulp sector closed up 0.05%.

 

On the other hand, construction shares fell 1.31%, foodstuffs shed 0.64% and textiles closed down 0.59%.

 

The local bourse will open Saturday to make up the reduced number of trading sessions over the just concluded Lunar New Year holiday.

 

Activity in Taiwan's manufacturing sector decreased at a slower pace in January, data from a survey by HSBC Bank and Markit Economics showed Wednesday.

 

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector came in at 48.9 in January, and remained below the no-change mark of 50 for the eight consecutive month. The latest reading was slightly above 47.1 recorded in December.

 

New business received by Taiwanese manufactures decreased further in January, reflecting weaker demand in both domestic and export markets. However, the rate of reduction slowed to the weakest since June 2011. Production also declined during the month, though at a slower rate.

 

Employment in the sector remained broadly steady in January as attempts to increase production capacity at some companies were offset by non-replacement of leavers at others. Input prices fell for a fourth successive month, mainly reflecting lower demand for raw materials. Output prices also decreased during the month.

 

THE PHILIPPINES

 

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index fell 1.3% to 4,758.57, snapping a three-day rally that drove the gauge Thursday to a record close. The measure posted its sharpest loss since Nov. 10 Friday, trimming this week's gain to 1.7%.

 

Cebu Air, the nation's largest budget carrier, climbed 4.8% to 71.25 pesos, the highest close since Nov. 22, after CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets reiterated their "conviction buy" rating on the stock.

 

Cebu Air shares may extend gains this year, driven by "several catalysts," including faster passenger growth, a plan to begin long-haul flights and the nation's improving tourism industry, CLSA wrote in a report dated 2 February. The stock will reach 91 pesos in 12 months, he wrote.

 

IP E-Game Ventures, a Manila-based online games publisher, advanced 1.5% to 20 centavos, the sharpest gain since 24 January. The company will expand into entertainment, hotel and leisure-related ventures, Philippine Star reported, citing President Enrique Gonzales.

 

JG Summit Holdings, owner of Cebu Air, sank 11% to 25.25 pesos, the sharpest loss since November 2008. The company said its affiliates sold 215 million shares in a private placement at 25 pesos each, a 12% discount to Thursday's 28.50-peso closing price.

 

SM Investments, holding company of Philippine billionaire Henry Sy, slid from a record, falling 3.8% to 651 pesos. The stock posted its sharpest loss since Oct. 3 after the company sold $250 million of convertible bonds and a technical indicator reached a level that some traders use as a signal to sell.

 

A three-day, 11% advance drove the shares to the highest close Thursday since the stock began trading in March 2005. The rally pushed the 14-day relative strength index to 77 Thursday, the highest since September 2010, above the level of 70 that some investors view as a sign that a security is poised to decline.

 

The Philippine government said on Thursday that the country is experiencing positive economic climate amid a challenging global economic environment.

 

Philippine Deputy Presidential Spokeswoman Abigail Valte said that contrary to allegations by some members of the opposition, economic indicators had showed an improvement in general economic conditions.

 

"Self-rated poverty is down, growth has resumed its upward trajectory as shown by the fourth quarter figures which are higher than the second and third quarter figures, unemployment in the fourth quarter was also down, infrastructure spending has been accelerated, and the stock market has once again reached new highs, " she said at a regular news briefing.

 

"All of these indicate that, while we expect this year to be challenging due to global economic environment, the business environment is improving, and policies toward promoting equitable growth are taking effect," she added.

 

The Philippine economy grew 3.7% last year and the government is eyeing 5%-6% growth for gross domestic product in 2012.

 

SINGAPORE

 

Stocks in Singapore closed 0.6 per cent higher in cautious trade on Friday following a mixed performance by US stocks overnight.

 

Analysts said investors were also awaiting the result of long-running talks between Greece and its creditors on cutting its huge debts.

 

The Straits Times Index rose 16.91 points to end at 2,917.95.

 

Volume was 3.43 billion shares.

 

Gainers led losers 275 to 142.

 

Among gainers, MDR Ltd jumped 50 per cent to S$0.009.

 

Meanwhile, Singapore Airlines dropped 3.6 per cent to S$10.61.

 

Unemployment rate in Singapore declined to its lowest level in 14 years in 2011, preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Manpower showed Tuesday.

 

The rate fell to 2% in 2011 from 2.2% in 2010. In the December quarter, the jobless rate remained unchanged at 2% compared to the previous quarter, while economists expected a modest rise to 2.1%.

 

Employment growth remained strong in 2011. Total employment grew by 36,300 in the fourth quarter of 2011, bringing growth in the whole of 2011 to 121,300. This was slightly higher than the gains of 115,900 in 2010.

 

The bulk of the employment gains continued to come from services, which added 95,100 workers in 2011, the Ministry said.

 

Based on the preliminary findings, 3,600 workers were made redundant in the fourth quarter. This was substantially higher than the 1,960 laid off in the preceding quarter. In 2011, 10,400 workers were made redundant, slightly higher than the 9,800 in 2010.

 

MALAYSIA

 

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended in the positive territory today on continued bargain hunting of penny stocks, dealers said.

 

The positive sentiment was also in tandem with regional bourses, backed by sustained inflows, the Federal Reserves' accommodative stance and reduced worries over the euro zone crisis.

 

At 5pm, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) ended 1.68 points higher at 1,538.77 after fluctuating between 1,526.03 and 1,541.31 throughout the day.

 

However, some investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of US employment data to be released later today.

 

The Finance Index advanced 41 points to 13,587.31, the Industrial Index increased 24.54 points to 2,871.28 but the Plantation Index lost 29.39 points to 8,737.92.

 

The FBM Emas Index improved 19.78 points to 10,733.79, the FBM70 Index rose 41.83 points to 12,406.53, the FBMT100 gained 16.56 points to 10,505.97 and the FBM Ace added 19.14 points to 4,536.63.

 

Gainers beat losers 461 to 399 while 352 counters were unchanged, 260 untraded and 15 others were suspended.

 

Total market volume improved to 2.84 billion shares, worth RM2.32 billion, from 2.58 billion units, valued at RM2.87 billion, transacted Thursday.

 

The local bourse will be closed on Monday and Tuesday for the Maulidur Rasul and Thaipusam holidays and will resume trading on Wednesday.

 

Volume on the main market rose to 1.78 billion shares, valued at RM2.13 billion, from 1.38 billion units, worth RM2.69 billion, recorded on Thursday.

 

Turnover on the ACE market increased to 372.48 million units, worth RM58.37 million, from 328.36 million shares, valued at RM52.42 million, registered previously.

 

Warrants, however declined to 691.30 million units, worth RM120.76 million, versus Thursday's 868.39 million units, valued at RM119.99 million.

 

Top gainers, United Plantations perked RM1.10 to RM21.80, Petronas Gas advanced 32 sen to RM16.20 and Tradewinds earned 29 sen to RM10.22.

 

Among actives, Naim Indah added nine sen to 18 sen, SAAG Consolidated improved half-a-sen to 7.5 sen while D.B.E. Resources slipped half-a-sen to 11 sen.

 

Heavyweights, Maybank eased one sen to RM8.33 but Sime Darby gained 18 sen to RM9.46 and Petronas Chemicals added six sen to RM6.79

 

Malaysia's central bank decided to leave the benchmark overnight policy rate unchanged at 3% for the fourth consecutive meeting on Tuesday, in line with economists' expectations.

 

The last policy change was in May, when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Bank Negara Malaysia hiked the rate by 25 basis to the current level.

 

The MPC said it expects the global environment to become more challenging going forward. "As Malaysia's economic growth and inflation prospects will be affected by these external developments, the MPC will continue to assess carefully the risks to domestic growth and inflation," it said.

 

According to the central bank, the latest indicators point towards continued expansion in the fourth quarter of 2011. Looking ahead, the economy is expected to continue to expand, underpinned by sustained private sector economic activity and further reinforced by public sector spending.

 

Overall growth prospects, however, would be affected by the slowdown in external demand, resulting in slower growth in exports and industrial production, the bank noted. Meanwhile, headline inflation is expected to moderate in 2012.

 

Domestic headline inflation averaged 3.2% in 2011. Going into 2012, the bank forecast cost-push inflation to moderate as slowing global economic activity alleviates the pressure on the prices of key commodities. The central bank also expects the impact of domestic demand factors on inflation to be contained.

 

THAILAND

 

The Stock Exchange of Thailand main index went up 7.28 points or 0.67% to close at 1,098.95 points at the end of trading session on Friday Afternoon. The trade value was 26.07 billion baht, with 4.00 billion shares traded.

 

The SET50 index ended at 768.96 points, up 5.56 points or 0.73 %, with a total trade value of 19.40 billion baht.

 

The SET100 index rose 11.60 points or 0.70% to stand at 1,671.99 points, with a total turnover of 22.06 billion baht.

 

The SETHD index went up 9.25 points or 0.87% to stand at 1,073.13 points, with total trade value of 7.37 billion baht.

 

The MAI index fell 1.05 point or 0.36% to close at 289.76 points, with total transaction value of 665.80 million baht.

 

Thailand's annual inflation slowed in January as the effects of severe floods last year eased further, data from the Commerce Ministry showed Wednesday.

 

Consumer price inflation fell to 3.38% in January from 3.5% a month ago. The figure was slightly weaker-than the expected 3.4%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose only 0.39%.

 

Meanwhile, core inflation that excludes food and energy rose slightly to 2.75% from 2.7%.

 

The central bank has reduced its key policy rate for a second consecutive rate-setting session in January to spur economic growth, hit hard by widespread flooding during October last year. The key rate was lowered to 3.00% from 3.25%.

 

INDONESIA

 

The Jakarta Composite index was little changed, slipping 0.02 percent to 4,015.95, the first decline in four days.

 

Aneka Tambang, the Indonesian nickel and gold producer, climbed 1.1 percent to 1,910 rupiah. Gold is headed for a fifth weekly advance in the longest rally since August. Spot gold traded at $1,758 an ounce at 3:05 p.m. Singapore time, up 1.1 percent this week. It reached $1,761.18 yesterday, the highest level since Dec. 2.

 

Media Nusantara Citra, a media company, gained 7.6 percent to 1,550 rupiah, the highest since it began trading on June 2, 2007. The company's unaudited 2011 net income rose 47 percent from a year earlier to 1.1 trillion rupiah ($122 million), Media Nusantara said in a stock exchange filing today.

 

Adaro Energy, Indonesia's second-biggest coal producer, fell 2 percent to 1,920 rupiah. The company's net income for this year and 2011 cited by the media yesterday were misquoted and the earnings results, which are still being audited, will be published March 30, Adaro said in a statement to the stock exchange. Adaro suggests shareholders "continue to consider market consensus," it said yesterday.

 

Indonesian consumer price inflation eased in January, giving room for the central bank to lower its key interest rates, data from Statistics Indonesia revealed Wednesday.

 

Inflation came in at 3.65% annually in January, down from 3.79% in December, Statistics Indonesia said Wednesday. The expected rate for January was 3.61%.

 

Month-on-month, the consumer price index gained 0.76%. At the same time, core annual inflation in January was 4.3% compared to 4.34% a month ago.

 

The central bank has set an inflation target of 3.5-5.5% for 2012 and 2013. The bank decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged for the second time in a row in January with the board of governors judging that the current interest rate is consistent with achieving the inflation target.

 

INDIA

 

India's benchmark share indices gained for the fourth straight day on Friday, to register their fifth consecutive weekly gain since September 2010, led by heavyweight Reliance Industries and private banking majors.

 

 Markets remained rangebound for most part of the trading session but recovery in late trades took the Sensex to a high of 17,630 before finally ending at 17,604 - up 173 points. Nifty ended up 56 points at 5,325.

 

 FIIs bought shares worth a net Rs 10,357.70 crore in January 2012, as per data from Sebi. On Thursday, FIIs bought shares worth Rs 1,941.23 crore - giving a fillip to the market.

 

 BSE realty index surged 2% to 1,784. Healthcare, power, FMCG and bankex advanced around 1.5% each. However, BSE metal index dropped 1% to 11,874 taking cues from the London Metal Exchange.

 

 Broader markets outperformed the benchmark with the indices surging 1.2% each to 6,046 and 6,686, respectively.

 

 NTPC was the biggest Sensex gainer and ended up 2.7% at Rs 176. Hindustan Unilever from the FMCG space moved up 2.6% at Rs 401.

From the Healthcare segment, Sun Pharma and Cipla surged 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively, after rating agency Fitch said its outlook on India's pharmaceutical sector for 2012 remains stable, as earnings prospects are expected to remain positive because of the growing global demand for generics and opportunities provided by patent expiries in developed markets.

 

Bharti Airtel added 0.7% at Rs 389 on expectation that the telecom major could emerge as one of the major beneficiaries following today's Supreme Court verdict.

 

Technology stocks like Infosys and TCS surged. TCS moved up 2% at Rs 1,168 after Fitch has affirmed a stable outlook for the India information technology (IT) services sector in 2012 on account of its strong liquidity position, even though it warned that revenue growth of the segment may moderate this year. Infosys was up 1% at Rs 2,780.

From the Realty pack, DLF rose 2% at Rs 230 on expectations that the central bank will start cutting interest rates in the coming months to prop up slowing economy.

 

Among other stocks, Marico reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 84.11 crore for the third quarter ended December 31, 2011. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 69.52 crore in the corresponding period of previous fiscal. Net sales of the company rose to Rs 1,057.81 crore for the third quarter ended December 31, 2011. It stood at Rs 817.73 crore in the same period previous fiscal. The stock rose 6% to Rs 163.

The BSE market breadth was positive. Out of 2,995 shares traded, 1,717 shares advanced while 1,166 shares declined.

 

The Indian government Thursday announced discontinuing releasing weekly primary and food inflation data based on the Wholesale Price Index or WPI, reports said, quoting the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, which releases the inflation data. The government, however, will continue releasing the monthly headline or overall inflation data, which also contains the break-up for all segments including food, non-food, fuel and manufactured items.

 

The headline inflation figures for January are scheduled to be released on February 14.

 

Besides, from this month the government will also come out with a retail inflation data based on the all-India Consumer Price Index. The first nationwide CPI numbers, for the month of January, will be released on February 21.

 

Last month the government decided to do away with the practice of releasing the weekly primary and food inflation data, as the figures were not portraying the holistic picture of the price situation.

 

The decision was taken by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

 

AUSTRALIA

 

Australian shares edged lower to a weaker finish as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of key US employment data.

 

At the close on Friday, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 16.6 points, or 0.39%, at 4,251.2, while the broader All Ordinaries index was down 13.1 points, or 0.3%, at 4,320.1.

 

The March share price index futures contract was down 22 points at 4,217, with 19,799 contracts traded.

 

On the bourse, there were 1.89 billion shares traded for a value of $4.22 billion.

 

There were 533 shares up, 470 down and 374 unchanged.

 

Economists expect the closely watched US payroll figures, due later on Friday, to show an extra 150,000 jobs added in January after rising 200,000 in December but with the unemployment rate steady at 8.5%.

 

Dragging the market down on Friday was a fall in the consumer staples sector as investors considered long-term prospects for supermarkets after Wesfarmers and Woolworths sales figures released earlier this week.

 

Wesfarmers sank 43 cents to $29.47 and Woolworths fell 20 cents to $24.40.

 

Major miners eased as investors mulled over the implications of news that Glencore International and Xstrata were planning a tie-up of their mining assets.

 

BHP Billiton shed two cents to $37.60 and Rio Tinto was off 22 cents at $70.50.

 

Banks lost ground, with Europe's debt crisis continuing to pressure lending costs.

 

Westpac chief executive Gail Kelly on Friday refused to speculate about whether the bank would pass on any cuts next week if the central bank cut its cash rate.

 

Westpac lost 13 cents to $20.79, ANZ Bank shed 25 cents to $21.11, National Australia Bank fell 14 cents to $23.75 and Commonwealth Bank of Australia lost nine cents to $50.57.

 

Shares in Magma Metals skyrocketed after nickel miner Panoramic Resources launched a $40 million takeover bid for the base metals explorer. Magma was the biggest gainer of the day, rising 5.5 cents, or 68.8%, to 13.5 cents. Panoramic was down one cent at $1.26.

 

Decmil Group added four cents to $2.48 after the engineering and construction firm won a $90 million contract for work at BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliances' Caval Ridge coal mine in Queensland.

 

Business confidence in Australia edged higher in December, according to survey results released Tuesday by National Australia Bank.

 

NAB's Business Confidence Index increased by one point to 3.0 in December.

 

Business conditions, meanwhile, were unchanged from the month before, NAB said.

 

The survey's employment index fell by 3.0 points in December to 1.0.

 

The sales category increased to 3.0 from November's 0.0 reading.

 

The index is based on NAB's survey of more than 400 businesses.

 

Fitch Ratings on Monday placed four major Australian banks' ratings on review for possible downgrade, citing weaker funding profile.

 

The agency said it placed long-term Issuer Default Ratings of Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank Limited, Westpac Banking Corporation and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group on Rating Watch Negative.

 

Fitch views the Australian major banks' ratings as under some pressure at their current levels. Further, banks are subject to uncertain macroeconomic environment as well as evolving regulatory regimes.

 

The agency expects that any downgrades of the four major Australian banks' ratings are most likely to be limited to one notch with those entities currently rated at 'AA' most at risk. Also, Fitch expects to resolve the Rating Watch Negative within a short time frame and will incorporate an updated view of Australian banks' strengths, weaknesses and trends.

 

NEW ZEALAND

 

New Zealand shares fell after Warehouse Group lowered its guidance and led a decline among retailers on the NZX 50 Index.

Investors are awaiting progress over the weekend on Greece's debt talks, and US payrolls, which are expected to show 'green shoots' in the US economy.

 

 The NZX 50 Index fell 2.4 points, or 0.1%, to 3312.22. Within the index, 23 stocks fell, 19 gained and eight were unchanged. Turnover was $85 million. The index has slipped from a three-month high and has edged up about 0.8% this year.

 

Warehouse fell 3.3% to $2.95. The retailer expects adjusted net profit of between $62 million and $66 million in the year ending July 27, down from a previous forecast of $70 million, it said in a statement Friday. Net profit will likely be about $80 million, in line with previous guidance.

 

 "Margin pressures experienced in recent months" was to blame for the downgrade, the retailer said.

 

 Hallenstein Glasson Holdings, the clothing chain, fell 2.5% to $$3.56 and children's clothing chain Pumpkin Patch dropped 1.3% to 78 cents.

 

Briscoe Group, the home ware and Rebel Sport retailer, fell 3.3% to $1.45. The retailer gained Thursday after releasing more upbeat earnings numbers.

 

 Shares in Kermadec Property Fund were unchanged at 64 cents after the property investor said it's entered into a formal sale and purchase agreement with manager Augusta Funds Management. The deal, which is contingent on shareholder approval, will bring management in-house and give the company a new funds management unit. It will also change its name to Augusta Group.

 

Units in Argosy Property Trust rose 0.6% to 83 cents after the commercial property investor Thursday said it will push on with plans to corporatise its structure in a bid to cut costs and improve corporate governance. The property investor bought out the OnePath NZ-owned manager for $20 million last year.

 

NZX gained 0.8% to $2.70 after the stock exchange operator said trading in shares and debt securities jumped in January, underpinning a stronger start to 2012. The stock exchange is poised for new listings this year, with the government's partial privatisation programme flagged to begin in the third quarter of the year.

 

The New Zealand economy may grow at a weaker-than-expected rate in the year to March 2013 due to the impact of the recent global developments, according a report from the Treasury.

 

The Treasury, in its briefing to the incoming Finance Minister, said it is lowering the real gross domestic product forecast for the year ending March 2013 by about half a percentage point from that in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update to around 3%.

 

The report observed that the financial markets are displaying significant volatility and heightened risk aversion and uncertainty due to ongoing concern over the sustainability of public debt in Europe and the US, increased worries over the health of the European banking sector and a weakening in the outlook in advanced economies.

 

Though forecasts of global growth are being revised down, the prospect of volatile and more expensive credit markets and the impact of lower global growth on commodity prices are the greatest risks to New Zealand's growth outlook, the Treasury said. The next official forecasts will be released in Budget 2012 to be published on February 16.

 

New Zealand's economic growth has been weak for some time and the large fiscal deficit and high level of external indebtedness continued to expose the economy to risks. The slowdown in growth has also revealed that the current overall cost of government program is too high, the report noted.

 

In a speech in Auckland last week, Prime Minister John Key said the country is on track to post a budget surplus in 2014/15. He said the Budget Policy Statement would show a forecast surplus in the range of NZ$300 to NZ$500 million in that year.

 

New Zealand service sector expanded at a subdued pace in December, a key survey revealed Monday.

 

The Bank of New Zealand - BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index fell to 50.6 in December from 56.2 in November. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector.

 

The results for December and October indicate that the sector may struggle for stronger expansion in the near future, Business NZ chief executive Phil O'Reilly said.

 

Business activity/sales went into contraction for the first time since July 2010 with the corresponding index falling to 49.7 in December from 59.1 in November. The new order index declined to 53.6 in December from 60.5 in November.      

Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesThe Standard & Poor's GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials rose 1.3% to close at 666.43 at 3:44 p.m. in New York, led by industrial metals.

 

Copper surged the most in two months after US payrolls rose more than forecast and the jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to a three-year low, bolstering prospects for the economy and metal demand.

 

On the Comex in New York, copper futures for March delivery jumped 3.2% to $3.9015 a pound, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Nov. 30. This week, the metal climbed 0.3%, the fourth straight gain.

 

On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months climbed 3% to $8,595 a metric ton ($3.90 a pound).

 

Aluminum, zinc, lead, tin and nickel also rose in London.

 

Crude oil gained for the first time in six sessions after the US jobless rate fell to the lowest in three years.

 

Oil futures for March delivery gained 1.5% to $97.84 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price fell 1.7% this week.

 

Brent oil for March settlement climbed 2.1% to $114.39 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.

 

Vitol Group sold North Sea Forties crude at a lower price. OAO Lukoil sold a shipment of Russian Urals in northwest Europe at parity to dated Brent, less than an offer Thursday.

 

Vitol sold a shipment of Forties for loading on Feb. 21 to Feb. 23 to Total SA at 15 cents a barrel more than dated Brent, compared with a premium of 25 cents for a transaction Thursday.

 

Natural gas fell on speculation that a surplus of the furnace fuel will increase as mild weather predicted for mid- February cuts demand.

 

On the Nymex, gas futures for March delivery fell 2.2% to $2.499 per million British thermal units.

 

UK gas surged to the highest in more than three years as freezing weather gripped Britain and the nation sought to attract more supply.

 

The day-ahead contract climbed as much as 11% to 76.1 pence a therm, or $12.05 per million Btu. It was 74.5 pence at 4:30 p.m. in London. A therm is 100,000 Btu.

 

Gasoline rose to a one-week high on the US jobs data, boosting speculation that fuel demand will improve.

 

On the Nymex, gasoline futures for March delivery rose 1.6% to $2.9144 a gallon, the highest settlement in a week. The price slipped 0.4% this week.

 

Heating-oil futures for March delivery rose 2% to $3.1144 a gallon.

 

Sugar rose, snapping the longest slump since early August, as the drop in the U.S jobless rate and service-industry expansion bolstered prospects for commodity demand.

 

Raw sugar for March delivery rose 2% to 23.94 cents a pound on ICE Futures US in New York, the biggest gain since Jan. 19. The price still fell 1.1 this week.

 

Cocoa futures for March delivery climbed 3.4% to $2,300 a metric ton. This week, the price dropped 4.4%, the most since late December.

 

Orange-juice futures for March delivery declined 1.3% to $2.0145 a pound. The price tumbled 4.5% this week, snapping a six-week rally.

 

Cotton futures for March delivery advanced 2.3% to 96.34 cents a pound, the biggest gain since Jan. 17. This week, the fiber rose 0.8%.

 

Arabica-coffee futures for March delivery climbed 0.2% to $2.1595 a pound.

 

Wheat fell for the second straight day on speculation that precipitation in the US southern Great Plains will boost prospects for winter varieties. Russia said it won't impose export duties on grain.

 

On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat futures for March delivery fell 0.3% to $6.6075 a bushel.

 

Soybean futures for March delivery rose 1.3% to $12.325 a bushel. The oilseed gained 1.1% this week, the third straight increase.

 

Corn futures for March delivery rose 0.2% to $6.445 a bushel, the fourth straight increase. The price gained 0.4% this week.

 

Cattle fell the most in two months on speculation that this year's 13% gain in prices will curb demand and as a winter storm in the Great Plains may miss most of the southern area where most animals are fed.

 

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, cattle futures for April delivery fell 1.2% to $1.2740 a pound. The price dropped 0.8% this week.

 

Feeder-cattle futures for March settlement declined 0.6% to $1.5445 a pound.

 

Hog futures for April settlement dropped 0.9% to 88.92 cents a pound. The price rose 1.8% this week.

 

Gold slumped the most in five weeks as the US added more jobs in January than forecast, signaling economic growth that may reduce the need for the Federal Reserve to expand stimulus measures.

 

On the Comex, gold futures for April delivery fell 1.1% to settle at $1,740.30 an ounce, the biggest loss since 29 December.

 

Silver futures for March delivery declined 1.2% to $33.749 an ounce.

 

On the Nymex, platinum futures for April delivery advanced 0.1% to $1,631.90 an ounce. Palladium futures for March delivery rose 0.2% to $708.85 an ounce.

Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 The Dollar strengthened on Friday after US data showed a larger than expected rise in jobs last month, increasing investors' bullish attitude towards the US economy.

 

 The US currency rose against the Euro, the pound and the Yen as investors speculated that the positive signal on the US economy would lessen the chance of a further round of quantitative easing.

 

The Euro fell as low as $1.3067, following a week of trading in a tight range against the Dollar as investors waited for the outcome of Greece's talks with its creditors to restructure its debt. It erased most of its losses by the close in New York, where it traded at $1.32. The single currency rose 0.1% against the Yen to Y100.28.

 

 The Pound reversed earlier gains against the Dollar after figures showed a rise in the UK's services industry in January. Sterling fell 0.2% to $1.5780 but rose 0.1% against the Euro to €1.2037.

 

But the Dollar fell against commodity and emerging market currencies as investors interpreted the uptick in US jobs data as positive for global growth.

 

 The Australian Dollar rose 0.5% to a six-month high against the US currency, moving back above the $1.07 level against the US Dollar to $1.0777.

 

 The Mexican Peso hit a five-month peak against the Dollar, rising 0.7% to 12.7135 pesos to the US currency.

 

 The Canadian Dollar climbed 0.4% to $1.0052 while the New Zealand Dollar rose 0.4% to $0.8360.

 

 The Yen and the Swiss franc weakened against the Euro and the Dollar, giving up some of their gains earlier in the week. Traders have speculated this week that a fresh round of intervention from both the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank could be imminent, after both currencies have approached key levels.

 

 The Swiss franc lost 0.2% against the Euro, which rose to SFr1.2068 after hitting a low of SFr1.2028 earlier in the week, just above the SFr1.20 ceiling at which the SNB has promised to intervene to weaken the franc.

 

The Dollar rose 0.4% against the Yen to reach Y76.54, erasing the gains made by the Japanese currency over the course of the week. The Yen this week hit its strongest level since the Bank of Japan last intervened in October, reaching Y76.00 against the Dollar.

 

The South African Rand firmed against the Dollar in late-afternoon trade on Friday. The Rand was bid at R7,5547 to the Dollar from its previous close of R7,6371.

 

Finally, here in China and the RMB where the RMB fell slightly against the US Dollar late Friday after the central bank guided its currency lower via a daily reference exchange rate.

 

On the over-the-counter market, the Dollar was at CNY6.3028 around 0830 GMT, up from CNY6.3018 late Thursday. It traded between CNY6.3021 and CNY6.3079.

 

Before trading began, the People's Bank of China fixed the Dollar/RMB central parity rate at 6.3102, up from Thursday's 6.3075 on the back of a stronger Dollar overseas.    

China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsPrime Minister Wen Jiabao said Thursday that China would consider working with the International Monetary Fund to help shore up Europe's finances. But he left unclear whether China was willing to drop conditions that so far have made its proposed help unappealing to European nations.

 

While Chinese leaders have pledged not to link political demands to financial investments, they have sought concessions, such as getting the European Union to relax trade strictures against low-cost Chinese goods. Mr. Wen's comments came at a Beijing news conference after he met with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany on the first day of her three-day visit to China.

 

Mrs. Merkel is the first of several European leaders scheduled to visit China this month, as China's huge holdings of foreign exchange reserves have begun to give it financial influence that could potentially rival Washington's.

 

Mr. Wen said that Chinese officials were studying whether the country should be "involving itself more" in helping Europe solve its debt troubles by investing in the region's two big rescue packages: the existing European Financial Stability Facility and the planned European Stability Mechanism. China's contributions could be channeled through the I.M.F., he said.

 

Lending money to the I.M.F. to, in turn, relend to Europe would effectively transfer more of the risk of any European debt default to the I.M.F. China has previously made clear that it would need to buffer the risk of lending more money to Europe.

 

In December Russia embraced the lending approach now being weighed by China, but Moscow was willing to lend the I.M.F. only $20 billion. Europe is trying to expand its bailout funds by hundreds of billions of Dollars.

 

Britain has also said it would consider sending more money to the I.M.F. to help with Europe's troubles - but only after the Europeans demonstrated they were finally taking bold steps to stem the contagion.

 

China had $3.18 trillion in foreign exchange reserves at the end of December, dwarfing the reserves of every other country and potentially giving it the financial firepower to make a significant contribution.

 

Having Chinese money on the table could help restore the international investing community's confidence in Europe. It would also signal that the Chinese believe Mrs. Merkel and other European leaders have taken the necessary steps to begin solving Europe's sovereign debt crisis.

 

One big question, though, is what kind of political or trade concessions China might want in exchange for assistance.

 

When Mr. Wen suggested last September that the European Union could dismantle its legal protections against low-price Chinese exports, the idea was immediately condemned by European trade officials.

 

An opinion article Thursday in the official China Daily newspaper raised Mr. Wen's trade condition again and suggested that the European Union should also make political concessions - like lifting a longstanding ban on arms exports to China. "As a Chinese saying goes, one does not visit the temple for nothing," the column warned.

 

Christine Lagarde, the I.M.F.'s managing director, has been playing a prominent role in trying to broker an agreement that will satisfy creditor nations like Germany and debtor nations like Greece at the same time. That includes a possible plan to convert the temporary, 440-billion Euro ($577 billion) European Financial Stability Facility into a permanent, 500-billion Euro ($655 billion) European Stability Mechanism.

 

European officials have been approaching China intermittently for two years. The aim is to persuade the Chinese government to increase the approximately one-quarter of its foreign exchange reserves that are thought to be held now in Euros, mostly in government bonds issued by the financially strongest countries in Europe - and to get Beijing to diversify that lending by buying the bonds of other, more troubled nations in the Euro currency union.

 

Economists and officials with a detailed knowledge of China's position have said repeatedly that China would be willing to help, but only if its loans could be made essentially risk-free. One way to do this would be for the European nations jointly to agree to repay the loans even if some nations defaulted. But Germany has been wary of any arrangement that could make it the guarantor of other European nations' liabilities, and there has been little sign that German thinking on this has changed.

 

Another way to address China's concerns about risk would be for the I.M.F. to assume the liability.

 

Chinese officials indicated in November and early December that they were leery of helping Europe, noting publicly that the country's foreign exchange reserves had been financed with money borrowed from the Chinese people. Beijing suggested that it might be safer to invest it in infrastructure projects overseas instead of government bonds.

 

But since then, the sense of crisis in Europe has diminished somewhat. That is largely because the European Central Bank in mid-December began extending large three-year loans to European commercial banks at extremely low interest rates, damping concerns of a Lehman Brothers-style liquidity crisis breaking out.

 

Europe's troubles are far from over, however. The Euro region's economy is expected to languish in recession for most of this year. Greece has also been struggling to raise the money for bond payments due next month in order to avoid a default. So the financial negotiations to stabilize Europe remain urgent.

 

A clear priority for Beijing has been to prevent a slump in the value of the Euro against China's currency, the renminbi. Such a slump, by increasing the renminbi's relative value, would make Chinese goods less competitive in Europe, China's largest export market.

 

"China supports Europe in safeguarding the stability of the Euro," Mr. Wen said at the news conference, alongside Mrs. Merkel.

 

Germany has joined the United States in the past in supporting a stronger renminbi. But Mrs. Merkel was circumspect on the subject Thursday, saying only that she supported the Chinese goal of working together to make the renminbi more convertible on global currency markets.

 

************************************

 

New China Life Insurance said it plans to raise 15 billion RMB ($2.4 billion) through debt sales, the latest Chinese insurer seeking to shore up its finances.

 

New China Life, which raised about US$1.9 billion in a dual Hong Kong-Shanghai stock-market listing last year, said Thursday that it plans to issue a 10-billion-RMB subordinated bond with a maturity of more than five years, as well as a five- billion-RMB bond with a maturity of more than 10 years.

 

The life insurer, China's fourth largest, said it will use the proceeds to help it make payments to policyholders.

 

Chinese insurers are required to keep their solvency ratios above 150%, or face a ban on expanding their business, setting up new branches and investing in some products. At the end of September, New China Life's solvency ratio was 86.6%, down from 106% at the end of June.

 

Subordinated debt is a popular capital-raising technique among Chinese financial firms. These bonds offer investors less protection if an issuer can't repay the debt but also a higher yield than regular bonds. Banks and insurers typically hold one another's subordinated debt.

 

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said in July that Chinese insurers need to raise more than 110 billion RMB in fresh funds to support their growth over the next three years.

 

China Life Insurance, the country's largest life insurer, is planning to raise 30 billion RMB through a debt issue, while Ping An Insurance of China, the second-largest life carrier, is seeking regulatory approval for a sale of as much as 26 billion RMB of bonds convertible into Class A shares, which are traded on China's domestic markets.

 

Separately, New China Life said it will start a securities-investment program in Hong Kong that it first detailed in its initial public offering prospectus. Under the program, the insurer will invest up to 15% of its assets in Hong Kong-listed securities, including stocks and bonds listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's main board, as well as debt issued by China's state-run enterprises.

 

As of June 30, New China Life's assets totaled 347 billion RMB.

 

The insurer said its board approved its bond-issuance plan and Hong Kong investment proposal. Both plans are subject to the approval of the company's shareholders and China's regulators.

 

************************************

 

A unit of China National Petroleum agreed to buy a big slice of a shale-gas play in Canada from Royal Dutch Shell, bolstering Beijing's footprint in North America's energy patch, as two other Chinese companies sealed energy deals in the US and Europe.

 

After tiptoeing into North America in recent years, Chinese companies have ratcheted up their energy deal-making as unconventional extraction methods-from oil sands to shale gas-have transformed the continent's energy market.

 

PetroChina, the Hong Kong-listed unit of CNPC, said Thursday that it bought a 20% stake in Shell's Groundbirch natural-gas development in northeastern British Columbia. In a written statement, state-controlled PetroChina said it hoped to gain shale-gas experience from Shell. Shell said the deal was part of its longer-term cooperation with CNPC.

 

Separately, EIG Global Energy Partners said sovereign-wealth fund China Investment Corporation has acquired a minority stake in the energy-asset manager, which is based in Washington, D.C. A spokeswoman for CIC declined to comment. EIG didn't disclose financial terms. EIG Chief Executive R. Blair Thomas said in an interview that the CIC stake is less than 10%.

 

EIG has emerged in recent years as a major, and astute, investor in the US energy boom. CIC was interested in EIG's expertise evaluating energy investment, Mr. Thomas said. The investment involves no associated voting rights, EIG said. The firm said CIC is already an investor in some funds managed by EIG.

 

And in Spain, a unit of state-controlled China National Offshore Oil Corporation struck a deal with closely held solar-power-equipment maker Isofoton to create a joint venture that will develop solar-power projects mainly in China, a spokeswoman for Isofoton said. The venture's initial investment is estimated at $300 million for the development of 150 megawatts this year, and the Chinese company will provide the funds, she said.

 

In recent years, North American producers have fine-tuned a technique to crack tight shale-rock formations by injecting water and chemicals, freeing up trapped gas and oil. The technology has greatly boosted supply and is now being used around the world to unlock reserves long thought unreachable.

 

Meanwhile, the growing gas supply in North America has sent natural-gas prices tumbling, making assets relatively cheap for acquirers such as PetroChina.

 

In Canada, China has also invested heavily in oil-sands developments. Companies extract bitumen from a mix of quartz sand in an expensive and energy-intensive process often more akin to strip mining. Until recently, China has limited its interest in Canadian energy plays to stakes in projects or partnerships.

 

But last year, Chinese companies started buying entire-albeit small-companies. Canada, eager to lure investment, has so far welcomed interest. Next week, Prime Minister Stephen Harper travels to China, where he has promised to promote Canada's energy potential to Chinese officials and executives.

 

Mr. Harper's government has also said it is eager to export its growing oil-sands production to China, after the US recently rejected a proposed pipeline from Canada to Texas. Currently, Canada sends almost all of its oil exports to the US

 

The Groundbirch development sits in a far-off corner of Western Canada that boasts some of the richest shale-gas basins in North America, but the area remains relatively unexploited. Last year, PetroChina agreed to-and then canceled-a $5.4 billion deal with Encana Corporation to purchase a 50% interest in nearby territory.

 

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, or Sinopec, in October bought Daylight Energy of Canada for about $2.2 billion. Daylight holds a significant position in a formation near the PetroChina-Shell play.

 

************************************

 

China's manufacturing sector had a strong January, at least according to an official survey that required extensive statistical adjustments due to last week's New Year holiday. Independent economists who conducted their own data adjustments found signs of surprising weakness.

 

 Amid the confusion, all could agree on one point: trying to get a clear read on the Chinese economy at the start of the year, when much of the country shuts down for a couple of weeks, is fiendishly difficult.

 

This has always been the case but is particularly vexing this year. The economy may be at a turning point, requiring much more policy support to keep growth on track. Yet it could be weeks, even months, before the full extent of any slowdown becomes clear.

 

China's official purchasing managers' index, an important gauge of factory activity, rose to 50.5 in January, up from 50.3 a month earlier. In remaining above 50, the PMI pointed to an expansion in industrial output that confounded forecasts for a decline.

 

The subindexes that comprise the PMI showed a sharp drop in export orders but a general increase in new orders - an indication that domestic strength was more than cushioning the impact of Europe's debt travails.

 

A separate PMI, which is sponsored by HSBC, told a similar story. The headline index was sluggish at 48.8, signalling a mild deterioration in manufacturing conditions, but export orders rose.

The quality of Chinese economic data has long come under suspicion, with critics alleging that it is manipulated by the government trying to cast a positive gloss on its achievements. Li Keqiang, who is widely expected to be China's next premier, said that GDP figures were "man-made" and "for reference only".

 

But analysts say the real problem is less manipulation and more the sheer challenge of measuring a continent-sized economy that is growing - and changing - so quickly.

 

 This challenge is particularly acute at the start of the year when businesses close and tens of millions of workers head home for the Chinese New Year. Depending on whether the week-long holiday falls in January or February, it can have a major impact on data: lavish banquets lead to a jump in food inflation that soon subsides and factory closures cause a sharp but temporary drop in industrial output.

 

 Because there were so few work days in January, statisticians had to extrapolate to produce figures for the full month, but economists suspect that they may have overestimated industrial activity in the process.

 

 "Without sufficient seasonal adjustment, PMI this January would have been downwardly distorted. However, it is also likely that seasonal adjustment was overdone," said an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "Take all monthly January and February data with a grain of salt."

 

 Yet waiting until March would be a feat of patience for investors looking to allocate funds. Putting policy on pause would also be a risk for the government. A range of partial indicators, from housing starts to freight volumes at ports, all point to a marked slowdown from China's 9.2% growth last year.

 

Many analysts had expected that the central bank would cut required reserves in January - a favoured tool in China for pumping cash into the financial system and propping up the economy. But it held its fire and instead adopted more cautious tactics, relying on open-market operations to inject liquidity.

 

Some domestic companies, especially property developers, have warned that the economy could suffer if the government does not shift soon to a more stimulative stance.

 

Premier Wen Jiabao sought to counter those fears this week, saying that policy can change course quickly if necessary.

 

"We must sharply observe and accurately judge the momentum of the domestic economy, paying utmost attention to the first signs of problems," he said at a cabinet meeting.    

Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
Europe will again be at the centre of investors' focus next week as the US earnings season passes the halfway mark and there is little on the economic calendar to give the market direction.          

  

US economic data expected next week includes weekly initial jobless claims, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index and international trade figures.           

 

In addition, seven companies across a range of industries are expected to go public next week, coming off a week that has seen more IPO flops than hits.

 

Seven companies are slated to go public, including information-technology outsourcing company EPAM Systems, Midwest grocery chain Roundy's Supermarkets and agricultural biotech company Ceres.

 

Broader market strength usually provides a welcoming environment for IPOs, but that wasn't the case this week, with two of the most popular deals ending up as flops.

 

Major stock indexes have been trending higher since the beginning of the year, and volatility has improved greatly since the summer - two factors that ordinarily make it easier for initial public offerings to price and trade well.

 

Those conditions didn't help US Silica Holdings and AVG Technologies, which surprised analysts and bankers alike by sinking on their debuts. Shares of drug developer Cempra and software maker Greenway Medical Technologies rose on their debuts this week, though shares priced below its expected range.

 

Greece remains at the forefront of the Euro zone crisis (as mentioned at the outset) as the government continues to struggle for agreement on fiscal reforms that would be accepted by political leaders and private bondholders as it tries to avoid a disorderly default.

          

Talks on a bond swap and 130 billion Euros in bailout funds have been continuing for weeks before a March deadline when 14.5 billion Euros of bonds fall due.

 

An exchange of new Greek bonds was originally scheduled to be completed by March 6, but delays in negotiations have pushed back the deadline by at least a few days.

 

Hopes that a deal was on the horizon, not surprisingly, dissipated on Friday as Euro zone finance ministers delayed a meeting scheduled for Monday.

 

There is always the chance in brinkmanship - which is what is being played here - that you have a dangerous outcome if the pieces don't come together.

 

They have until 19 March - a little over 5 weeks and that is all. They are going to keep pushing this thing until everybody gets the best deal they can out of it or they decide not to move forward and let Greece go.

 

And as I said at the start, that is what I think is going to happen anyway; all we are seeing at the moment is a last-ditch 'show' from the powers-that-be in Europe so that when Greece eventually goes down the pan, they will be able to say "you cannot accuse us of not trying".

 

The flood of earnings reports will slow next week. A total of 66 S&P 500 companies are expected to report, including Walt Disney, Coca-Cola and Cisco Systems. NYSE Euronext is also due to report results after the exchange terminated merger plans with Deutsche Boerse on Thursday.     

 

Investors will likely be focused on Thursday's European Central Bank meeting to decide on monetary policy and borrowing costs across the 17-nation currency bloc. Most analysts expect the ECB to keep borrowing costs at 1%, given that Euro-zone economic data have shown signs of strength.

 

Of more interest to investors will be any new hints about expanding the massive liquidity the ECB has provided to Euro-zone banks, which culminated in a record Eur 489 billion tender last month. That has helped push down government borrowing costs in Italy and Spain.

 

A debate is underway about whether the cash being provided to banks via the ECB's long-term refinancing operations, or LTRO, is on par with the Federal Reserve's aggressive quantitative easing efforts. The expanding balance sheets of both central banks is negative for both the Euro and Dollar, and likely to keep them hemmed into a tight range as both fight for the mantle of weakest currency.

 

And Europe's lack of a final solution to its debt crisis is putting new strains on Portuguese government yields, which recently hit record highs before retreating. A recent spate of economic figures confirms that while the 17-nation currency bloc's strongest members are weathering a downturn, peripheral nations like Portugal remain hard-pressed to find sustainable growth to reduce its debt pile.

 

The Bank of England will raise its target for asset purchases next week as the debt crisis in Europe may have already pushed Britain's economy into a second recession.

 

The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Mervyn King will increase its bond-purchase program by 50 billion pounds ($79 billion) to 325 billion pounds.

 

Policy makers will also hold their benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, according to all 57 economists in a separate poll. The bank will announce its decision at noon on Thursday in London and will vote in light of new economic forecasts to be published the following week.

 

Elsewhere, strange as it may seem but next week is going to see Australia garner more attention than usual.

 

Down under, the summer lull will be a fading memory next week when Australia's business and finance calendar kicks into overdrive.

 

Banking issues may remain centre stage with investors, borrowers and depositors alike watching closely to see whether the Reserve Bank pauses in its interest rate cuts or make it three reductions in a row.

 

Investors continue to view another interest rate cut to 4% on Tuesday as a four-in-five chance. If they are correct, the focus will swiftly shift to whether the commercial lenders pass the cut on in full to their customers - and how soon.

 

There will be other economic news to digest. On Monday, the ANZ Bank will release its monthly job ads survey, which is a leading indicator of the health of the labour market. Ads fell 0.9% in the previous month.

 

The outlook for jobs will gain more attention if more employers join companies such as Holden, Toyota, and Westpac in flagging job cuts.

 

Also on Monday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release retail sales data for December, which analysts will closely examine to get a sense of how bad - or good - the Christmas trading season has been for the sector.

 

Retail sales were flat in November, with the market looking for a 0.2% increase in December.

 

Along with the RBA, investors on Tuesday will also receive important performance updates from Macquarie Group and National Australia Bank.

 

The updates from the two banking groups may prompt revisions of analyst forecasts. For now, analysts tip Macquarie's full-year profit to come in at $840 million, and a half-year profit of $2.9 billion for NAB.

 

Miners will then become the main focus for investors. BHP Billiton on Wednesday will announce half-year results, with investors expecting almost $10 billion in profit for the period.

 

On Thursday, it's Rio Tinto's turn, with full-year results due. Consensus estimates point to a profit of $US$15.3 billion.

 

Also on Thursday will come Telstra's mid-year results. Investors expect net income of $1.48 billion for the period.

 

Tabcorp is expected to announce half-year profits of $183.9 million, while News Corp will also update the market on its results.

 

Friday will see Newcrest announce its mid-year trading results, with investors expecting the gold miner to announce a profit of $546.8 million.

 

No matter what happens though, next week is going to be all Greek to you and me; rest assured.

 
As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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Adrian Page
 
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