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Global Weekly Markets Review - 6 October 2007
Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen,
Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you some 'magic' today.
I will turn the US August new job figures from a negative 4,000, into a positive 89,000! Done!
See how easy that was to get investors to keep throwing their money at the US market?
I also give you this week's leading headlines from the Financial Times and other important reads:
Credit squeeze costs banks $18bn
ECB pegs rates as credit crisis bites
US Recession Unavoidable
Merrill Lynch 5 Billion Dollar Loss
UBS, Citigroup and Credit Suisse Warn of Lost Billions
Home Sales Seen Down Heavily in September
Dollar Confidence at Weakest Ever
And what do all of those headlines do to the markets? They drive them up!
On to the numbers before I start to sound like an old record, repeating myself week after week:
The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 1,557.59 points, surpassing the previous record set in July. The index also hit a new intraday record of 1,561.91 and has gained 2% this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also set a new intraday high of 14,124.54 but settled just shy of a record close, at 14,066.01, 1.3% higher on the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed 2.9% higher on the week at 2,780.32. Some of the strongest gains were recorded on the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks, up 4.9% this week at 844.85. Much-anticipated jobs data provided a lift to the markets, even as they reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The futures market on Friday calculated an implied probability of 48% that the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of this month compared with an 84% likelihood a week ago. Unemployment rose 0.1% in September to 4.7%. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4%, up 4.1% on the year. Positive jobs news lifted transport stocks, a traditional bellwether of the economy. The Dow transport index gained 3.3% to 4,997.17 for the week. Consumer staples were flat while consumer discretionary and retailers stocks surged. Circuit City was 15.4% higher at $9.13 on the week. Home Depot, up 5.5% at $34.22, and Wal-Mart, 3.9% higher at $45.37, were among the Dow's best performers. Equity volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Option Exchange's Vix index, slid 6.4% on the week to 16.84. It was a big week for the banking sector. Merrill Lynch and Citigroup warned about third-quarter earnings. Bear Stearns told investors most of its businesses were on the “rebound”. Merrill said it expected a net loss in the third quarter of up to 50 cents a share after taking $4.5bn in writedowns linked to collaterised debt obligations and subprime mortgages. With the bad news in the open, the shares were 7.6% higher on the week at $76.67. Citigroup, up 3.5% at $48.30, warned that third-quarter earnings would probably fall 60%. It faces writing down $3bn in subprime, leveraged loan and fixed income credit exposure. Bear Stearns gained 7.1% to $131.58. Technology stocks continued their rally. Research in Motion soared 15% to a high of $113.37 after it reported fiscal second-quarter profit that met expectations and raised guidance for the third quarter. Google, up 4.7% at $594.05, set a record high after Bear Stearns raised its 2008 price target to $700. Alcoa on Friday gained 3% to $38.79, 0.8% lower this week, after it announced the restructuring of its electrical and electronic solutions business. General Electric climbed 0.9% to $41.77 after it said lighting plants in Brazil and the US would close with the loss of up to 1,400 jobs. Homebuilder stocks were the surprise of the week. The S&P homebuilder index put on 12.3% to 459.86 points after an analyst at Citi Investment Research said it was time to buy into the sector. Among the best performers on the S&P were Pulte Homes, up 13.4% at $15.43; DR Horton, 14.4% higher at $14.65; and KB Home, up 17.3% at $29.40. The automotive sector was again in focus after the big car manufacturers reported September sales figures. General Motors gained 4.1% to $38.20 after it reported increased US sales of 4% last month. Energy stocks had a disappointing week as crude oil futures were sluggish. The S&P energy index was 0.2% lower on the week at 578.05. |
Speaking after the ECB held its main interest rate at 4% at a meeting in Vienna, Jean-Claude Trichet, president, went further in stressing the downside risks to growth in the Eurozone. Although the ECB would not let up in the battle against inflation , significant changes in the wording of Mr Trichet's statement hinted strongly that the central bank saw little case for further rises in borrowing costs. So how did this affect the markets this week? German shares closed higher, tracking Wall Street, after a broadly in-line US September employment report and a large upward revision to the number of jobs created in August fanned hopes that the economy there will remain robust. The DAX closed 57.19 points or 0.72% higher at 8,002.18 after trading between in the 7,946.34 and 8,014.16 in the session. The MDAX was up 94.54 points, or 0.90% at 10,631.37 points, while the TecDAX added 8.74 points, or 0.88%, to 997.51. DAX futures were up 55.50 points or 0.69% to 8,073.00, while bund futures declined 0.59 points or 0.52% to 112.39. Leading blue chips ended higher, Deutsche Boerse rose 4.66 Eur or 4.64% to 105.15 Eur on speculation that it and Volkswagen might soon replace Endesa SA and ABN AMRO Holdings NV in the Dow Jones EurO STOXX 50 index. Volkswagen gained 7.05 Eur, 4.38%, 167.97 Eur. Inclusion in the STOXX 50 could happen if current takeover bids for Endesa and ABN Amro Holdings are realised, removing the companies from the exchange. The STOXX 50's composition is reviewed annually in September, with inclusion occurring in October. Acciona SA and Enel SpA's joint bid for Endesa SA has won 85.30% shareholder acceptance, stock market regulator CNMV said today. A 70 billion Eur takeover offer from a consortium of banks led by Royal Bank of Scotland is nearly certain after Barclays PLC has conceded defeat in the takeover battle for Dutch bank ABN AMRO. Traders said inclusion in the index could help the share price as mutual funds, which base their holdings on the the index, would need to buy shares in Deutsche Boerse or Volkswagen, creating increased demand. Deutsche Post shares added 0.34 Eur or 1.67% to 20.71 Eur as traders pointed to technical trading reasons. SAP was 0.62 Eur or 1.51% higher at 41.63 Eur. The software company received an award for providing excellent service from the US-based Service & Support Professionals Association (SSPA). Munich Re gained 1.30 Eur or 0.97% to 135.70 Eur after UBS raised the insurer to 'buy' from 'neutral' as part of a review of the European reinsurance sector. At the other end of the index, Infineon fell 0.26 Eur or 2.28% to 11.14 Eur after technology researcher Gartner yesterday cut its 2008 global spending outlook for chip equipment to 43.7 billion Eur, down 4.3% from its mid-July forecast of 45.7 billion Eur. Traders said a Morgan Stanley chip industry coverage update released earlier in the week, which talked of 'inventory correction', was also raising fears that another slowdown in the sector is on its way. Adidas was 0.56 Eur or 1.23% lower at 45.11 Eur. Over on the MDAX, Premiere was 1.11 Eur or 7.12% higher at 16.70 Eur, while Kloeckner & Co fell 1.94 Eur or 3.72% to 50.28 Eur. TecDAX-listed Software added 2.74 Eur or 4.08% to 69.88 Eur, while ADVA dropped 0.17 Eur or 2.88% to 5.73 Eur. Now to France where the Paris market also ended the day higher. The CAC-40 index finished up 38.85 points or 0.67% at 5,843.24. Among CAC-40 stocks, 29 closed higher, 1 ended flat and 10 closed lower. On the Matif, October CAC-40 futures were trading at 5,842. On the broader indices, the SBF-80 index closed up 45.82 or 0.67% at 6,911.65 while the SBF-120 ended 28.27 or 0.67% higher at 4,252.55. Renault was among the major climbers, adding 2.30 Eur or 2.11% to 111.36, rebounding from profit-taking yesterday. A local dealer said Renault has underperformed rival Peugeot in the recent upturn, despite publishing a higher rise in car sales for the month of September. He also speculated that the French state might be pushing up Renault's share price in preparation for a partial sale of its 15% stake, as finance minister Christine Lagarde has made it clear the government is planning disposals to raise funds. Peugeot ended up 0.24 or 0.40% at 59.94 while tyre maker Michelin also trailed the market, rising 0.19 or 0.20% to 97.43. Steel maker ArcelorMittal ended as the biggest bluechip climber, up 1.45 or 2.70% at 55.20. Banks mostly continued their rally of late as investors remained optimistic that the worst of the credit crisis is over. In an indication of this more confident tone towards banks, Merrill Lynch shares rose in the US, despite its warning of a third-quarter loss, as investors looked to return to more normal results in the current quarter. Among French banks, BNP Paribas gained 1.26 or 1.55% to 82.41, Credit Agricole was up 0.31 or 1.09% at 28.76, while Societe Generale added 0.93 or 0.73% to 127.79. However Dexia shed 0.20 or 0.87% to 22.67 after acting as a defensive play in recent weeks compared to other financials. Among other rising bluechips, Accor gained 1.05 or 1.58% to 67.55 as a positive note from Cheuvreux and optimism over the positive impact of the Rugby World Cup outweighed concerns over Marriott's poor results yesterday. Cheuvreux analysts today reiterated their 'buy' rating on the stock and 80 Eur price target. Luxury goods stocks remained in the spotlight after yesterday's rumours that Hermes International might be the focus of interest from Belgian investor Albert Frere, as well as from rival French luxury groups PPR and LVMH. Hermes ended up 2.22 or 2.63% at 86.70, on top of its 4.68% jump Thursday. PPR climbed 2.55 or 1.89% to 137.55, while LVMH inched up 0.07 or 0.08% to 85.99. Pernod Ricard also gained ground, adding 1.90 or 1.24% to 155.49, helped by the publication of its resolutions for its Nov 7 AGM, including proposals for a two-for-one share split to increase liquidity, and a request that the board be granted authority to issue equity or debt. Separately, Les Echos today published an encouraging article on the idea of an Absolut acquisition, highlighting Pernod's successful track record with the purchase of Seagram in 2001 and Allied Domecq in 2005. Among falling CAC-40 stocks, Alcatel-Lucent dropped 0.06 or 0.83% to 7.15. The Financial Times today claimed AT&T has considered dropping the group as a supplier of WCDMA third generation mobile telecoms equipment due to delivery delays, and may now give part of its contract to other suppliers. However, Alcatel-Lucent pared their losses at the end of the session, helped by a company statement calling the press report 'inaccurate' and that its W-CDMA market share with AT&T 'has remained relatively stable and we continue to work to meet our commitments to maintain our market share.' Lagardere SCA ended as the biggest CAC-40 faller, down 0.87 or 1.47% at 58.48. The stock remains under pressure after Le Figaro reported the contents of an interim memo from markets regulator AMF about its inquiry into possible insider trading at EADS, in which Lagardere is a leading shareholder. Capgemini continued to shrug off recent speculation-fuelled gains, giving up 0.65 or 1.43% to 44.75. In contrast, fellow IT stock Business Objects rose 1.21 or 3.58% to 35.00, despite at downgrade to 'neutral' from 'outperform' at Credit Suisse. SG Securities today singled out the business software group as its 'wise hot pick,' while speculation continues to circulate over a possible takeover bid. The Netherlands saw Amsterdam shares continue the upward trend in Europe, while Hagemeyer soared on M&A rumours. The AEX closed 4.85 points or 0.90% higher at the days's high of 546.60, after trading in a range of 542.29-546.50. Hagemeyer surged 11.83% to 3.97 Eur amid continued M&A talk that competitor Rexel may put out a takeover bid. Dutch market authority AFM confirmed that it has contacted Hagemeyer about the strong share price gains of today. Corporate Express added 4.09% to 7.89 Eur while Arcelor Mittal rose 2.76% to 55.20 Eur. Fortis added 2.81% to 22.69 Eur after Barclays withdrew its takeover bid on ABN Amro, ensuring that the RBS consortium -- of which Fortis is a member -- will succeed in its bid on the Dutch banking group. ABN Amro itself ended flat at 37.61 Eur. TomTom put on 1.95% to 51.77 Eur after several days of losses over worries that TomTom may have to raise its bidding price on Tele Atlas, which added 0.69% to 23.23 Eur, well above the 21.25 Eur per share bid price from TomTom. Wolters Kluwer rose 1.22% to 20.75 Eur amid news that it has expanded a licensing agreement with Autonomy. Royal Dutch Shell rose 0.43% to 28.24 Eur amid news that is plans to divest company-owned retail gasoline sites in the US. Decliners were few among blue chips. Philips lost 0.55% to 30.88 Eur and Randstad shed 0.89% to 41.12. Van der Moolen led gainers among midcap shares, adding 4.66% to 3.37 Eur, while Wereldhave put on 4.60% to 86.88 Eur. Univar edged 0.04% higher to 53.27 Eur as CVC declared its takeover bid on Univar unconditional. CVC said 97.2% of Univar shares have been tendered. Vopak shed 0.82% to 39.95 Eur, Aalberts shed 1.15% to 17.12 and LogicaCMG dropped 1.34% to 2.21 Eur. Into Belgium now where in Brussels Shares closed higher with bancassurer Fortis rising 3% on news that Barclays plc, which was also bidding for Dutch peer ABN Amro NV, has withdrawn its bid. The Bel 20 closed up 25.38 points or 0.57% at 4,434.91. Fortis fell back slightly from earlier highs to close up 0.66 Eur or 2.99% at 22.71 on exceptional volume, with 21.7 million shares traded. The bank said 'We take note of the fact that Barclays has withdrawn its offer,' but declined to comment further. Peer KBC closed up 0.42 Eur or 0.42% at 100.73, whilst telecoms group Belgacom was up 1.06 Eur or 3.32% at 33.00. UCB was up 0.11 Eur or 0.56% at 41.62. Earlier, the pharmaceuticals group said it has settled its patent litigation in the US over epileptic drug Keppra. Omega Pharma, which spun off its Arseus professional health division, closed up 0.37 Eur or 0.59% at 62.73. In negative territory, imaging and technology group Agfa-Gevaert dropped 0.21 Eur or 1.54% to 13.44, whilst bank Dexia fell 0.19 Eur or 0.83% to 22.69. Mobistar was down 0.45 Eur or 0.71% at 62.55, reversing some of yesterday's gains. Analysts were sceptical over the likelihood of France Telecom buying a 49.8% stake. Outside the Bel 20, Arseus was down 0.30 Eur or 2.93% at 9.95 following its IPO at 10.25 Eur. Car leasing group D'Ieteren was up 6.23 Eur or 2.04% at 310.93. The company denied rumours of plans to bid for remaining 40% stake in Avis Europe. In Zurich, Switzerland 's share market also rose. The Swiss Market Index closed 21.99 points higher at 9,075.35 and the Swiss Performance Index closed 23.64 points up at 7,389.42. The Euro rose to 1.6648 SFr while the Dollar was up at 1.1772 SFr. Among the SMI's gainers was employment group Adecco which closed 1.5%, or 1.15 SFr higher at 74.95. ABB rose 0.30 SFr to close at 31.70 after the Swedish-Swiss engineering group said it had won an order worth 110 million usd from Germany's E.ON to build a power converter system for a power station in Germany. Nestle was 2 SFr higher to close at 509. Selected financial stocks also gained, with Swiss Life adding 1.00 SFr to close at 312.75 after saying it is thinking of selling operations in Belgium and Holland. Baloise was 0.30 SFr higher to close at 121.50. Earlier, the insurance group said it will set up a life insurance unit in Liechtenstein. Credit Suisse was up 0.40 SFr to close at 81.85 and UBS rose 0.35 SFr to close at 67.95. But Julius Baer shed 0.90 SFr to close at 90.70 with some analysts seeing its share price as expensive. Earlier, Julius Baer acquired Monaco-based Capital Invest SAM, effective Oct 4, 2007. Pharmaceuticals also underperformed the market, with Novartis off 0.05 SFr to close at 64.00. Yesterday, the Swiss pharmaceuticals group pulled its pain-killer Prexige off the Canadian market, with the news overshadowing today's EU approval for postmenopausal osteoporosis drug Aclasta. Rival Roche was unchanged, closing at 211.80. Outside the SMI, Barry Callebaut was 3.2%, or 29 SFr, higher to close at 940.50 after it acquired a new cocoa factory in the US which is seen boosting sales and EBIT growth in 2007-2008. In Vienna, Austrian Shares closed higher, with ratings-related gains by Raiffeisen International and A-TEC Industries, as well as very strong advances by Wienerberger and Boehler-Uddeholm, leading an almost comprehensive rally in the Vienna Stock Exchange's blue-chip segment. The ATX closed up 1.91% or 90.60 points at 4,843.89. The ATX Prime closed up 1.69% or 38.52 points at 2,315.42. Into Scandinavia now and starting with Finland where Helsinki shares closed firmer led by Nokia, on bargain-hunting after Thursday's sharp falls. The OMX Helsinki 25 closed up 0.63% at 3,278.15 and the OMX Helsinki all-share index was 0.62% higher at 12,099.30 on 1.515 billion Eur turnover. Nokia closed 1.14% firmer at 25.84 Eur on bargain-hunting. Bear Stearns raised its target price for Nokia in 2008 to 31 Eur from 27 Eur, based on higher earnings forecasts. In a note to clients, Bear Stearns said it also raises its earning estimates of next year for the handset maker. 'Our checks indicate that Nokia's units are tracking better than expected, and while ASP's are a bit softer than we expected, mobile device margins seem to be holding up quite well,' it added. The brokerage said also it believes that 'Nokia's market share remains robust'. Paper closed mixed, with UPM-Kymmene adding 0.71% to 15.60 Eur, while Stora Enso R gave up earlier gains to close 0.95% lower at 12.52 Eur. In banks, Nordea ended unchanged at 12.31 Eur, while OKO A was 1.03% higher at 14.75 Eur. Insurer Sampo A was 0.27% higher at 22.16 Eur. Orion B ended 0.57% higher at 17.69 Eur. Orion was cut to 'neutral' from 'buy' at Goldman Sachs, which also raised target price to 19.5 from 19 Eur. Stockmann B ended 0.35% lighter at 33.64 Eur. Lindex AB said 44% of its shareholders have already expressed support for Stockmann's recommended bid on the Swedish fashion retailer, launched on Oct 1. The shareholders have given undertakings to sell their shares to Stockmann, however these undertakings may be withdrawn if a third party launches a higher bid, said Lindex. Stockmann is offering 116 SKr per share for Lindex. Elsewhere, Huhtamaki finished 1.54% lower at 10.23 Eur after it was downgraded to 'reduce' from 'buy' by eQ Bank. In a note to clients, eQ Bank said it is cutting its stance on the company following the two recent profit warnings issued by Huhtamaki's peers, Bemis and Sonoco. In Sweden Stockholm shares closed firmly higher led by Ericsson, on reports it is taking business from Alcatel-Lucent, and by Volvo, after reassuring US jobs data for September helped assuage fears over the strength of the US economy. The OMX Stockholm index closed up 1.10% at 402.79, while the OMX Stockholm 30 was 1.13% higher at 1,257.70. Turnover amounted to 24.970 billion SKr. Ericsson B closed up up 2.38% at 26.70 SKr after the FT reported the company is set to win orders with AT&T from troubled Franco-American rival Alcatel-Lucent. The newspaper said Ericsson is capitalising on Alcatel-Lucent's severe difficulties to strengthen its position in the WCDMA mobile network market. Lucent was originally part of a 2 billion usd AT&T order won in conjunction with Ericsson and Siemens in 2004. Ericsson's share was initially 50%, but will now likely exceed this amount after Alcatel-Lucent failed to deliver kit on time, allowing Ericsson to step in. Among the telecom operators, TeliaSonera closed unchanged at 56.50, and Tele2 B up 0.18% at 136.50. Volvo B closed up 3.39% at 122.00, helped by today's US jobs data. Volvo derives around a third of its heavy truck sales from the US market. Engineering stocks also had a bullish session, with SKF B closing up 3.27% at 142.00, Sandvik up 1.62% at 141.00, and Atlas Copco A up 1.95% at 117.75. OMX closed down 0.18% at 283.50. Qatar has applied for up to 100% ownership authorisation even though they are very unlikely to want to get full ownership, Dagen Induistri reported citing unnamed sources. Lundin Mining Corporation closed up 2.38% at 86.00. The company said it expects to increase zinc ore production at its Neves Corvo mine in Portugal, to 2,400,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) from 400,000 tpa, significantly increasing the company's overall annual zinc and lead production. At the same time, at Zinkgruvan in Sweden, copper ore production is planned to increase by 33% to 1.2 million tonnes per annum by 2010. Boliden also closed up 1.25% at 142.50 after it said it has been cleared to double production at its Aitik plant to 36 million tonnes a year. The banks closed broadly flat, while elsewhere in the market Hennes & Mauritz B gained 1.85% to close at 412.50, Electrolux B up 1.69% at 150.50, and Skanska B up 1.99% at 141.25. Neighbours Denmark saw Copenhagen Shares close slightly higher led up by Vestas Wind Systems AS, as investor sentiment received a boost following the release of stronger-than expected US employment data earlier in the day. The OMXC20 index was up 1.61 points at 509.02 and the OMXCB Benchmark index gained 2.26 points to 484.53. The OMXC All Share index closed up 2.40 points at 495.27, on turnover of 4.91 billion DKr. Vestas Wind Systems AS gained 14.00 DKr to 437.50. DS Norden AS was up 20.00 DKr at 606.00, as Danske Markets initiated coverage of the shipping group with a 'hold' recommendation and a target price of 600 DKr. GN Store Nord AS gained 1.25 DKr to 55.25. Goldman Sachs started coverage of the group with a 'neutral' rating and a target price of 60 DKr. The brokerage said it sees limited upside potential for GN's share, even if its hearing aid division Resound becomes involved in a break-up or buyout scenario. Bang & Olufsen AS added 2.00 DKr to 594.00 ahead of its first quarter report, due on Monday. NKT Holding AS was up 2.00 DKr at 596.00. According to RB Boersen news agency, Alm. Brand raised its price target for the group to 675 DKr from 625 DKr. Genmab AS gained 8.50 DKr to 335.00. The pharmaceutical company said it has issued 188,900 warrants to its employees, with an average value estimated at 135.25 DKr. Among other heavily traded shares, DSV AS was up 5.00 DKr at 135.50, FL Smidth AS fell 9.00 DKr to 559.00 and Danske Bank AS shed 1.75 DKr to 215.00. And rounding out Scandinavia this week we go to Norway where in Oslo Share prices closed higher, led up by Fast Search & Transfer following six contract wins in a week, and by Tandberg, which rebounded following recent falls, while Acta slumped after warning its third quarter results would be well below expectations, dealers said. The OSEBX Benchmark index closed 0.58% higher at 487.93 and the OSEAX All Share index rose 0.56% to 564.47. Total turnover amounted to 12.13 billion NKr. Internet search company Fast Search & Transfer led the Norwegian bourse higher, finishing the day 2.61% higher at 11.80 NKr after announcing six new deals for the deployment of its Fast Enterprise Search Platform. Shares in Fast slumped more than 35% in July after the firm issued a major profit warning and then posted second quarter results below expectations. However the stock has recovered in recent weeks, gaining more than 9% in the last week alone. Tandberg, the video-conferencing equipment manufacturer, also recovered recent losses, to finish the day 2.57% higher at 129.50, having struggled for much of the week following weaker results and bearish comments from two of its main competitors. Having started the day in the red, the OSEBX was helped ahead of the close by what dealers described as encouraging employment data from the US, with a broadly in-line September employment report and a large upward revision to the number of jobs created in August. Oil prices also helped the Norwegian bourse, holding onto the bulk of Thursday's gains. StatoilHydro gained 0.14% to 174.25, while DNO fell 0.72% to end at 11.10. PA Resources finished 1.32% higher at 57.50 after DnB NOR Markets reiterated its 'buy' recommendation on the stock while increasing its price target to 65 NKr from 60. In the oil services sector, Petroleum Geo-Services was 0.84% higher at 150, Prosafe fell 0.65% to 91.90, and Fred Olsen Energy closed unchanged at 280. Engineering giant Aker Kvaerner rose 2.22% to 173, while Seadrill recovered yesterday's losses to close 1.71% higher at 119. Yesterday Seadrill fell after SEB Enskilda cut its recommendation on the stock to 'sell' from 'hold' ahead of what it expects to be a period of limited positive newsflow and delays to key newbuild rigs. Elsewhere, Renewable Energy Corporation extended yesterday's gains to finish up 1.11% at 249.75. Earlier this week REC boss Erik Thorsen told daily newspaper Aftenposten that believes the conditions that would allow solar energy to have unlimited growth potential are on the horizon, with the cost of producing solar panels set to halve by 2010. Yara International closed 1.36% higher at 167.50. The chemicals group said it now owns 97.55% of Finland's Kemira Growhow, after the completion of its mandatory offer for all shares in the group. Ementor, meanwhile, built on yesterday's gains to finish 0.98% stronger at 51.75. Reports yesterday suggested that Topnordic - the Nordic IT group that includes Ementor - has been inundated with calls from telecoms operators wishing to sell their services through the group's large pan-Nordic distributor network. Leading the fallers was financial services firm Acta, which slumped 15.23% after warning that its third quarter figures will come in well below expectations. The firm said third quarter revenues are likely to come in at 122 million NKr, well below analyst expectations, as a result of the firm's low overall investment activity. According to analysts in Oslo, revenues for the current quarter were expected to come in nearer 500 million NKr. Despite the weaker third quarter results, Acta said it is maintaining its target of 2.7 billion NKr in revenues for the period 2005-2007. Acta however added that the third quarter issues are short-term in nature, and that it is 'taking measures in order to increase future earnings'. Down now into the Med' and starting with Italy where Milan Share prices closed higher, supported by US jobs data this afternoon, and led by AEM on positive broker comment and Fiat on comments from the company on its operations, brokers said. The Mibtel index was up 0.58% to 31,675 points and the S&P/Mib rose 0.55% to 40,800. Volume traded was an estimated 5.445 billion Eur. Brokers said the bourse was more or less flat ahead of the US data, which also prompted a strengthening in the Dollar helping stocks with US exposure. AEM was up 3.65% to 2.755 Eur after positive comment from Morgan Stanley, which retained its 'outperform' rating and upped the target price to 3.5 Eur, from 3.3, citing prospects for its merger with ASM Brescia. ASM Brescia gained 4.45% to 4.575. Edison, in which AEM is a major shareholder, was up 1.38% to 2.3225, also buoyed by a Morgan Stanley 'outperform' rating and a price target rise to 2.8 Eur, from 2.6. Enel rose 0.71% to 8.055 after results from its bid for Endesa in Spain, raising its stake to 67%, whiles its partner Acciona has another 25. Eni added 0.97% to 25.96. Brokers increasingly see the company reaching a deal with the Kazakh government over development of the Kashagan field. Italy prime minister Romano Prodi flies to Kazakhstan this weekend. Fiat gained 2.03% to 22.13 after yesterday's positive comments from its Iveco lorry unit on third quarter and full year prospects. Today, Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne reiterated full year group targets. Among Dollar stocks Autogrill was up 1.94% to 13.98 and Bulgari rose 0.09% to 11.10. Lottomatica was down 0.12% to 25.58 with a contract win in Oregon, US more than offset by reports a fund is selling stock. Atlantia rose 1.86% to 25.15, extending yesterday's gains on a regulatory deal with the Italian government, which analysts say will ease the way towards an Abertis merger. Atlantia has yet to confirm the deal. Cements were higher. Italcementi gained 1.99% to 17.19. Buzzi Unicem was up 1.46% to 20.26. Finmeccanica lost 1.54% to 20.40 after a report on it possibly having to pay back subsidies to the government. Among banks, BPM was off 0.76% to 10.60, subsiding after merger speculation. Brokers are not excited by the speculated Unipol or Credit Mutuel tie-ups, especially if these do not involve a full-scale merger. Unipol gained 1.54% to 2.6125. Seat PG rose 0.26% to 0.3915 after Bear Stearns started coverage with 'peer perform'. One broker said Seat's fundamentals remain strong even if private equity buyers can no longer find funds to buy the company. L'Espresso fell 1.17% to 3.64 after yesterday's gains. Pirelli lost 1.54% to 0.832 amid continued delays in completed the sale of its stake in Telecom Italia, off 0.24% to 2.07. Into Spain now where Madrid Share prices closed sharply higher, and near session highs, boosted by Wall Street's early strength after reassuring US jobs data, with heavyweights like Telefonica and Santander leading, while Vueling soared on M&A hopes The IBEX-35 index ended up 174.1 points or 1.18% at 14,892.10, after trading in a range of 14,712-14,900. Telefonica led the market higher, gaining 0.45 Eur or 2.38% to 19.34 on heavy volume of 53.5 million, rebounding from several sessions of losses. Santander gained 0.12 to 13.94 after Barclays withdrew its offer for ABN Amro, paving the way for a successful bid for the Spanish bank's consortium with RBS and Fortis. The outcome of the bid is expected to be announced next week. Abertis put on 0.34 to 22.89, on hopes that Atlantia's 'gentleman's agreement' with the Italian government could be a first step to unblocking the two concessionaires' long-awaited tie-up. Among small and medium caps, Vueling soared 2.12 or 26.5% to 10.12 on volume of 3.5 million on rumours that Hemisferio could launch a bid, with news that core shareholder Grupo Planeta has no plans to sell-out, refuting recent press speculation, also underpinning sentiment. Admirall climbed 1.09 or 7.22% to 16.19, after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a 'buy' rating and 19 Eur per share target price. Jazztel surged 0.05 or 11.63% to 0.48, on heavy volume of 43.1 million shares, amid vague renewed hopes of an eventual bid from Vodafone. And rounding off Europe this week we go to Greece where in Athens Greek shares closed higher, lifted by Wall Street's positive opening following the release of a better-than-expected jobs report, and led up by the Bank of Piraeus and EFG Eurobank. The ASE general index closed 0.8% higher at 5,198 and blue chips jumped 1.3% to 2,745.9. Mid-caps rose 0.6% to 6,791.4 and small caps gained 0.5% to 1,155.5. Advancers outnumbered decliners 135 to 112 while 80 were unchanged in very heavy trade of roughly 662 million Eur. Bank of Piraeus led blue chip gainers and jumped 5.7% to 26.66 Eur after it was reported that the bank is likely to upgrade its 2010 net profit estimates to 1.2 billion Eur from 1 billion Eur. Deutsche Bank also published a report on European banks and kept its 'buy' rating on the Bank of Piraeus. It also cited it as one of its top European bank picks. EFG Eurobank grew 3.7% to 25.74 Eur on the general positive sentiment in the banking sector following Deutsche Bank's report. Construction holding group Hellenic Technodomiki rose for the second consecutive session, growing 3% to 10.12 Eur after the European Commission said yesterday that it has cleared the proposed joint venture between Hellenic Technodomiki, Hochtief PPP Solutions, Vinci SA and others, so that they can proceed with the Maliakos-Kleidi project, which is worth over 1 billion Eur. Bank of Cyprus gained 2.5% to 12.7 Eur after Deutsche Bank's European banking sector review said it was one of its top picks, keeping the stock at 'buy'. Greek Postal Savings Bank stayed steady throughout the session and closed 0.2% higher at 15.58 Eur after the Ministry of Finance said the state will propose Angelos Philippides as the new president of the bank. Travel goods retailer Hellenic Duty Free Shops lost 1.6% to 13 Eur after announcing that its board of directors has approved the acquisition of 51.84% of listed retailer Elmec Sport for 114.8 million Eur. Hellenic Telecomms (OTE) fell 1% to 25.32 Eur and announced that it had bought 1.34 million Cosmote shares for 32.7 million Eur, upping its stake in the mobile operator to 67.3%. Cosmote dropped 1.2% to 24.68 Eur on the same news. Air carrier Aegean Airlines lost 0.8% to 7.36 after it announced that talks to acquire a stake in Romanian airline company Blue Air have concluded without reaching an agreement. ATEBank slid 0.5% to 4.02 Eur unaffected by Eurobank Sec resuming coverage of the stock with an 'outperform' rating and a 4.6 Eur target price. |
ABN Amro, which was previously “overweight” the sector, cautioned that the combination of higher mortgage rates, stricter lending criteria and lower consumer confidence would impact the UK housing market over the next two years, raising the spectre of house price deflation. The bank cut its sector stance to “neutral” as it downgraded its recommendation on four of the FTSE 350's seven housebuilders. “After fairly resilient demand through most of 2007, we believe trading conditions in the new housing market are likely to become more testing,” analyst William Jones wrote, slashing the bank's earnings forecasts by an average of 10% for next year, and an average of 20% for 2009. Barratt Developments, cut by two notches from “buy” to “sell”, lost 4.1% to 765p while Redrow dropped 3.2% to 407p and Taylor Wimpey fell 2.5% to 293½p. There wasn't a lot more joy in the property sector, as dealers got their first chance to react to news that the credit squeeze had forced British Land to pull the sale of the Meadowhall shopping complex in Sheffield. While British Land lost 3.4% to £11.24, Hammerson fell 4.3% to £11.68, Land Securities dropped 3.2% to £16.87 and Liberty International shed 2.7% to £11.53. However, the biggest blue-chip faller was Alliance & Leicester, down 6.8% to 794p, as Deutsche Bank downgraded the mortgage lender from “hold” to “sell” amid worries over the higher cost of wholesale funding and rising bad debts. Fellow lender Bradford & Bingley lost 6.5% to 285p while beleaguered Northern Rock lost a further 2% to 158.5p. In the wider market, gains for the mining sector and continued strength on Wall Street helped the FTSE 100 close at an eleven-week high and within 140 points of its peak for the year. The main index ended 47.9 points, or 0.7%, higher at 6,595.8 while the FTSE 250 rose 19.9 points, or 0.2%, to 11,390.4. Over the week, the FTSE 100 rose 2% while the FTSE 250 gained 3.2%, helped by Thursday's confirmation of an approach for oil services company Abbot Group. Another riser was Yell Group, up 3.1% to 463¼p, as Bear Stearns initiated coverage on the directories company with an “outperform” rating. This follows positive comments from Merrill Lynch earlier in the week. Experian Group rallied 1.4% to 549p on vague rumours that Royal Bank of Scotland could bid for the credit checking group and put it together with its existing Lombard asset finance arm. However, given that an RBS-led consortium is paying £46bn for ABN Amro, the Netherlands-based bank, another multi-billion Pound deal at this time for the Scottish bank would seem unlikely. Equally vague was talk that department store Marks and Spencer would team up with a group of private equity groups to bid forJ Sainsbury, the supermarket. M&S closed flat at 640p while Sainsbury rose 0.5% to 583p. |
Hong Kong outperformed, bouncing back from a two-day sell-off on reports the government may lower corporate taxes. Australian benchmarks rose as higher oil and metals prices boosted resource stocks. Japan and South Korea put in lacklustre performances and finished close to unchanged on the day. Japanese shares closed narrowly mixed after a directionless session Friday, as investors were divided about growing optimism the subprime crisis is over and the outlook for the market. Technical indicators are flashing that the market is overbought following the rally earlier this week. The Nikkei 225 index declined 27.45 points, or 0.16%, to 17,065.04 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. But many investors were reluctant to place big bets ahead of a three-day weekend in Japan and the release of widely watched US employment data later Friday. Among stocks in the news, Casio Computer plunged 300 Yen or 19.1% to its limit low for the session at 1,272. Investors rushed to sell Casio shares after the maker of watches, digital cameras and cellular phones said Thursday it now expects to post a net profit of 17 billion Yen for the year to March 2008, down from an earlier estimate of 28 billion Yen, citing lower-than-expected sales of cellular phones and declines in prices of small-sized thin film transistor liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD) panels. Shares of other cellular phone makers were generally down. Toshiba fell 11 Yen or 1.0% to 1,061 as Sharp dropped 20 Yen or 1.0% to 2,045. Matsushita Electric Industrial ended the morning trade down 70 Yen or 3.3% at 2,080. Aeon edged up 49 Yen or 3.0% to 1,672 despite saying Thursday its operating profit fell 18% in the first-half, hit by rising costs associated with a series of business acquisitions and stake purchases. Analysts said the weaker operating profit had been expected and the stock is supported by the retailer's announcement yesterday that it will buy back shares from the open market to improve the supply and demand outlook. The broader Topix index, which includes all Tokyo Stock Exchange's first section issues, rose 1.31 points, or 0.08%, to 1,656.91 points at Friday's close. The Topix fell 0.51% the day before. Hong Kong blue chips rose 3.2% and China plays rallied 4.9% on Friday after two days of sharp declines, as resource plays advanced with commodity prices and China Life led financial plays. The benchmark Hang Seng Index closed 857.54 points or 3.2% higher at 27,831.52 after picking up pace in the afternoon session. The index scaled a high of 27,843.59 as European markets stayed firm. Brisk trading through the day pushed volumes to 21.30 billion shares worth 139.76 billion Dollars. Breadth was positive with gainers beating decliners 823 to 176 while 127 stocks remained unchanged. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose sharply, up 812.97 points or 4.9% at 17,540.02. The Property Index was up 1404.27 points or 4.6% at 32,238.43 reversing Thursday's losses. The Finance Index moved 1346.08 points or 3.2% higher to 43,114.87 on gains made by mainland insurers and banks. Mainland China was closed as we know all week for National Day holidays. South Korean shares closed lower on Friday as investors were reluctant to make any major commitments ahead of the US September jobs report due later today and the corporate earnings season that kicks off next week. The market failed to find a clear direction and flitted between positive and negative territory through the session. Investors are hoping the non-farm payrolls data will strike a balance between steady growth and more room for interest rate cuts. The benchmark Kospi index hit a new all-time high this week as major progress was achieved in inter-Korean relations. The leaders of the two Koreas signed a pact for peace and prosperity on Thursday at the end of their three-day summit in Pyongyang, raising hopes for an easing of geopolitical tension and greater economic development projects in North Korea. The KOSPI index closed down 7.59 points or 0.4% at 1,996.03, after trading between 1,990.82 and 2,009.68. For the week, the index gained 49.25 points. LG Philips LCD is set to announce its third quarter results on Tuesday, followed by Samsung Electronics on Friday. Trading was subdued, with 373 million shares worth 6.5 trillion won exchanging hands. Decliners outnumbered advancers by 493 to 311. Institutions were net sellers of shares worth 183.6 billion won while foreign and retail investors were net buyers of 129.7 billion won and 49.6 billion won in shares, respectively. Most large-cap blue chips ended lower as institutions locked in profits on the recent heavy gains. South Korean technology shares closed lower on Friday as investors locked in profits after the tech-laden index posted six consecutive days of gains. Sentiment was cautious ahead of the US job data due for release later today with investors hoping it will provide clues to the Fed's next rate move. Investors also restrained from active buying ahead of the weekend and the start of the third-quarter earnings season next week. The KOSDAQ index closed down 1.21 points or 0.2% at 813.51, after trading between 818.12 and 812.02. Volume was 678 million shares worth 2.5 trillion won. Decliners nearly doubled advancers by 610 to 339. Foreign investors and institutions were net sellers of shares worth 8.3 billion won and 0.3 billion won each while retail investors were net buyers of 23 billion won. Human & Technology closed limit-up 10,100 won at 78,000 won, extending a rally for a fourth straight session, as investors continued to be drawn to the promise of its new solar energy development business. Sodiff Advanced Materials also jumped 4,100 won or 5.6% to 78,000 won, benefiting from the strong interest in the solar energy development business. Sodiff produces key raw materials for solar battery. Telecom stocks came into the limelight after several days of weakness. LG Telecom jumped 340 won or 3.8% to 9,200 won and Hanaro Telecom soared 270 won or 3.2% to 8,720 won. Hana Tour advanced 3,000 won or 3.6% to 86,000 won on hopes for strong seasonal demand for tourism. Semiconductor equipment makers turned lower, tracing their mainboard clients. Jusung Engineering lost 250 won or 0.9% to 28,600 won and Seoul Semiconductor slumped 1,300 won or 3.8% to 32,750 won. Shipbuilding parts maker Hyunjin Materials extended gains, soaring 3,400 won or 6.8% to 53,500 won, on hopes for more orders from local shipbuilders. Osstem Implant tumbled 3,700 won or 8.3% to 41,000 won. The stock has gained for five consecutive days after winning approval from the US Food and Drug Administration for its new dental implant product. In Taiwan The weighted index closed down 0.1% at 9,617.26 after cautious trade as investors took their lead from Wall Street's lackluster overnight performance. Concern over local political bickering when the upcoming National Day celebrations next week provide politicians a forum to vie for voter support also drove some investors to the sidelines. In The Philippines The composite index was up a marginal 0.45 point at 3,775.91, as investors locked in gains following an extended rally early in the session, spurred by the local central bank's move to cut key interest rates by 25 basis points. For the week, the composite index was up a solid 5.7%. Singapore shares closed higher Friday following Wall Street's modest gains overnight, with investor buying centered on blue chips led by bourse operator Singapore Exchange The benchmark Straits Times Index rose 38.81 points or 1.0% at 3,822.62, after trading between 3,827.72 and 3,775.10. For the week the index gained 116.39 points or 3.1%. A total of 3.8 billion shares were traded valued at 2.6 billion Singapore Dollars. Gainers outnumbered losers 502 to 295, with 1,666 stocks unchanged. The upward momentum is likely to be sustained as the index continues to rise above 3,800 points with third-quarter earnings expected to be healthy when the season kicks off later this month. The Ministry of Trade will release third-quarter GDP on October 10, with economists expecting growth to be higher than the 8.6% posted in the second quarter. Meanwhile, a slight pullback on Wednesday as investors chose to lock in some profits was welcome in the market following its record-breaking run. Bourse operator Singapore Exchange led the gains, adding 60 Singapore cents to 15.40 after a brief respite yesterday on continued speculation that it will be involved in a deal soon. Goldman Sachs raised its target price for SGX to 18.40 Singapore Dollars from 11.80 Dollars. Flagship carrier Singapore Airlines extended its gains given strong expectations of benefits that it will reap from the open skies agreement between the Singapore and the UK government. The deal will remove all restrictions on air services operated by carriers of both countries starting end-March 2008. SIA rose 10 Singapore cents to 19.60. Most banking stocks were also higher on expectations of strong loan growth going forward. DBS Group added 10 cents to 22.50 and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp also gained 10 cents to 9.30 while United Overseas Bank was flat at 22.40. Investors also favored telecom stocks after CIMB-GK Research said it has upgraded its rating on the Singapore telecommunications sector to 'overweight' from 'neutral' on the back of strong mobile subscription growth tied to the influx of immigrants to Singapore. The firm has raised its target price for Singapore Telecommunications to 4.54 Singapore Dollars from 4.27 Dollars and lifted its target price for StarHub to 3.64 Dollars from 3.50 Dollars. Singapore Telecom closed 4 cents higher at 4.02 Dollars while StarHub added 6 cents to 3.06 Dollars and MobileOne gained 4 cents to 2.13 Dollars. Shares of Indonesian palm plantation companies listed in Singapore also rallied as crude palm oil (CPO) prices continued to head north. Golden Agri-Resources was up 11 cents at 1.48 Singapore Dollars. Infodood Agri was up 12 cents at 1.33 Dollars and Wilmar International was up 14 cents at 3.84 Dollars. Thai share prices closed higher Friday on gains in energy stocks, but buying was limited ahead of the release of a US employment report. The market also held firm as investors chased gains in the property sector. The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index rose 3.38 points or 0.40% to 852.33 and the blue-chip SET-50 index added 2.73 points to 620.03. Indonesian shares closed Friday at a new record high on optimism over the outlook for corporate earnings this year, with the firmer rupiah and gains in some regional markets providing an added lift. Big caps Perusahaan Gas Negara, Astra International and Telkom led the market higher. The composite index finished up 27.43 points or 1.1% at a new all-time high of 2,500.58, off a new record intraday high of 2,504.44. Volume was 4.74 billion shares valued at 5.92 trillion rupiah. For the week, the main index gained 141.37 points or 6%. The LQ-45 index was up 5.80 points at 534.39. Gainers led decliners 95 to 85, with 61 stocks unchanged. Malaysian shares closed Friday firmer, with trading volume breaching the 2 billion shares mark, suggesting fairly positive investor sentiment. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) closed up 2.55 points or 0.2% at 1,372.39. For the week, the KLCI gained 36.09 points or 2.7%. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia 30-large cap index dropped 20.07 points or 0.2% to 8,648.72 and the second board index added 0.98 point or 0.9% to 107.39. Gainers led losers 631 to 282, with 242 stocks unchanged and 173 counters untraded. Trading volume was 2.1 billion shares, valued at 2.29 billion ringgit. Into India now where The BSE Sensex Friday closed nearly flat at 17,773.36, down 3.78 points from Thursday, after touching a lifetime high of 17979.18. The Nifty ended at 5185.85, down 22.80 points, or 0.4%, after moving between 5164.50 and 5248.55. CNX Midcap Index and S&P CNX 500 Index ended down 1% each. Most oil and gas shares also gained, led by heavyweight Reliance Industries, up 3% at Rs 2,493. The Australian share market has ended the week 0.6% higher after being buoyed by a rebound in the mining sector. The All Ordinaries Index grew 37 points to 6,617 and the ASX 200 rose 39 points to 6,605. Mining giant BHP Billiton's exclusive access to a railway in Western Australia's Pilbara region could come to an end after it lost a Federal Court appeal today. The miner was appealing against a ruling last December that declared the company's railway lines in the Pilbara were not involved in the production process. The Fortescue Metals Group has been fighting to gain access to BHP's rail line so it can develop an iron ore deposit. BHP Billiton shares rose 35 cents to $44.10 and Fortescue Metals Group gained almost 1.5% to $49.71. Rio Tinto rose 1.3% to $107.65. It was a mixed session for the banks, with the Commonwealth Bank 14 cents lower at $57.06 and the National Australia Bank adding almost 0.5% to $40.76. Shares in forestry group Gunns Limited retreated from big gains yesterday after approval for its pulp mill in Tasmania. Its shares rose 3.4% $3.65. Australian fruit processor Golden Circle has rejected a $212 million takeover bid from Coca Cola Amatil. Instead, Golden Circle is supporting a private equity deal from Anchorage Capital Partners. Coca Cola Amatil shares have risen almost 2% to $9.18. New Zealand shares dipped Friday in flighty trading at the end of a fairly quiet week. The NZSX-50 index, which yesterday lost 0.6%, was down 15.93 points or 0.4% at 4284.05. Turnover was an unimpressive $109.7 million, and falls outnumbered rises 53 to 35. Top stock Telecom, which returned $1.1 billion to shareholders today and cancelled one share in nine, fell a cent to 456. Shareholders received 488 for every cancelled share. The company yesterday reaffirmed its lower earnings guidance, and new CEO Paul Reynolds said he had no intention to sell off the network. Sky City rose 3c to 539. The Australian Financial Review said today that private equity group TPG was in the lead to buy the casino operator after Providence Equity Partners did not make a bid. Second-ranked Fletcher Building fell 31c to 1220, continuing its pattern of large moves in either direction. Contact Energy was steady at 935, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare was up 7c at 334, F&P Appliances rose 2c to 355, and Auckland International Airport lost 3c to 309. Among stocks to decline, The Warehouse lost 7c to 537, Ebos was down 11c at 504, Air New Zealand lost 2c to 236, and Rakon was down 4c at 480. Pumpkin Patch fell 5c to 305, and Hallenstein Glasson was down 6c at 450. Guinness Peat Group rose 2c to 195, Port of Tauranga gained a cent to 696, Tourism Holdings was up a cent at 237, and Trustpower rose 9c to 870. NZ Refining was down 9c to 781 on lower oil prices and refining margins. Dual-listed stocks posted bigger gains, with ANZ up 40c at 3590, Westpac 25c higher at 3400, Lion Nathan up 20c at 1095, and AMP up 15c at 1250. |
The agreement by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the oil cartel that controls about 40% of world oil output, to increase its production by 500,000 barrels a day from November has so far not dampened bullish sentiment. Prices on Friday retraced after a brief spike in the Dollar triggered by the payrolls data. By late afternoon, Nymex December West Texas Intermediate was down 1.4% on the week to $80.60 a barrel. ICE December Brent moved 1.3% lower for the week to $78.24 a barrel. Wall Street banks have in the past week increased their price forecast for crude oil in 2008 to $67.0 a barrel. Michael Lewis, of Deutsche Bank in London, on Friday warned that that figure could prove conservative as the financial sector has under-estimated the oil price in its forecasts by an average of 31% since 2000. Nymex December RBOB gasoline fell 1.3% on the week to $2.0423 a gallon. Nymex December heating oil fell 1.2% to $2.2114 a gallon. Base metals were higher on the week prior to the annual gathering of metal executives at London Metal Exchange week, which starts on Monday. Copper rose 2.1% on the week to $8,200 a tonne while aluminium, which has been so far this year the base metals' laggard, dropped 3.4% to $2,430 a tonne. Lead on Friday surged to an all-time high of $3,725 a tonne and later traded at $3,697 a tonne, up 8.7% on the week. Nickel rose 3.1% on the week to $31,450 a tonne while tin was 4.5% higher at $16,100 a tonne. Gold ended the week slightly lower on profit taking and a stronger Dollar. Bullion fell 0.2% to $743.45 an ounce, not far from the 28-year high of $747.65 an ounce that it reached on Monday. Agricultural commodities were lower on profit-taking after last week's highs. CBOT December wheat lost 3.8% to $9.03½ a bushel while CBOT December corn fell 8.3% to $3.42 a bushel. CBOT soyabean moved 4.2% lower to $9.49¾ a bushel. |
Having spiked 0.7% following stronger than expected US jobs growth data, the US currency erased the day's gains after Merrill said a $4.5bn write-down related to structured and subprime-backed debt would cause third-quarter losses. The Euro and Sterling had also gained on Thursday after decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to keep their base rates on hold, but otherwise the week belonged to the previously beleaguered US currency. Few investors had wanted to extend trading positions on the Dollar ahead of Friday's September non-farm payrolls data, the closely-watched but volatile gauge of job creation in the world's largest economy. But the currency edged cautiously higher on Monday through to Thursday's European rate decisions, leaving the Dollar higher over the week. August's payrolls data had registered a shock decline. Another fall would surely spell economic downturn, analysts said, while an unexpectedly strong number would confirm there was still life in the economy. The latter proved to be the case, with 110,000 jobs created. Furthermore, August's fall of 4,000 was revised to show a gain of 89,000 - (Ed - Oh Really!). Over the week the Dollar gained 1% against the Euro to $1.4135, and was up 0.2% to $2.0412 against Sterling. The US payrolls data provided another sell signal for the Japanese Yen, as hopes were revived that the worst of financial market volatility was over. Volatility is dangerous for the carry trade, where gains on interest rate differentials can be instantly wiped out by wild price swings. But calmer conditions encouraged selling of the Yen to provide funds for purchasing higher yielding assets. The Euro climbed 0.8% over the week to Y165.18, while the Dollar added 1.6% to Y116.70. But the highest yielding currencies soared. While Japanese interest rates languish at 0.5%, Australian rates looked as though they might soon be extended beyond their current 6.5% after surprisingly strong retail sales numbers on Wednesday. The Aussie Dollar rose 2.6% to Y104.82 over the week. New Zealand's Dollar rose 1.6% to Y88.66. Calls for action to prevent excessive growth in the Euro continued, with Romano Prodi, Italian prime minister, saying he had spoken with Angela Merkel, German chancellor, and both had expressed concerns over the currency's strength. Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, was not explicitly critical of the Euro's strength after the bank's policy meeting on Thursday, but said “disorderly developments” in currency markets were a threat to growth. Over the week the Euro was down 0.6% against Sterling to £0.6930. |
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Summary China reopens on Monday and it will be interesting to see the rush back into the market after investors seemingly turned to the Hong Kong market and Mainland China plays (driving the HK market to record highs day after day).
Japan takes a holiday of its own on Monday but it is likely later in the week that the Bank of Japan will leave interest rates unchanged during its key meeting.
In the UK we see a pre-budget release on Tuesday which will be closely watched by the markets to see what 'election stance' the Government will take.
Other than that, there is not too much on the cards next week and so I bid you all a very pleasant weekend.
Market Review Newsletter Compiled By
Adrian Page
Managing Director
Financial Page International
Saturday 6 October 2007
"Money Does Not Perform. People Do!"
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