Financial Page International

7 January 2012 - Global Markets Review

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen,

Not a totally surprising start to 2012 really - global markets lacked direction for the best part of the week as European Bond sales failed to create waves either way and the US came up with more positive housing/unemployment figures - none of which inspired markets to do very much at all.

 

I do have to mention those US jobs figures though.

 

325,000 new jobs were added to the Private Sector in December (a month crucially where historically jobs figures decline) - but what is really bizarre is that of all the analysts' predictions for those numbers, the average expectation was just 178,00 - so those new jobs did not just miss estimates a little bit, they were a mile off!

 

US unemployment claims this week dropped by 15,000, the fourth successive weekly decline.

 

Is it possible during the festive period that someone, somewhere in the US statistical office got their + and their -'s the wrong way around?

 

But the way markets reacted to these extraordinary figures, perhaps shows that no-one is taking them too seriously. Markets were flat to the news.

 

From the very limited 'happenings' this week, European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said Germany should support raising the European emergency fund to help end the region's debt crisis.

 

"The most important obstacle lies in Germany, not in the Netherlands," Knot said in an interview on Dutch public television last night. "I think that more money is needed and we will use the time to convince our German colleagues."

 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has resisted calls to ratchet up bailout funding amid warnings that the current amount isn't enough to safeguard nations such as Italy and Spain. Germany has instead focused on budget discipline as the best means to stem the crisis now in its third year.

 

"We haven't moved in the right direction and it's also clear that measures needed are happening too slowly and too limited in size," said Knot, who in July succeeded Nout Wellink at the Dutch central bank. "A significant acceleration in decision-making is needed."

 

German lawmakers will probably resist increasing funds for European bailouts to ease the debt crisis, two allies of Merkel said Thursday, signalling opposition to a bigger firewall. The 500 billion-Euro ($640 billion) ceiling for the permanent European Stability Mechanism is scheduled to go into effect this year.

 

Separately, Knot said he isn't worried about the depreciation of the Euro against the US Dollar. "It's part of the normal exchange rate fluctuation, even in historic perspective the Euro is remarkably stable even compared to other currencies."

 

Staying in Europe, Sweden faces a difficult year like every other European economy I'd say, but unlike the rest of the European Union, it's equipped to cope. There are lessons here, especially for the EU's other non-Euro countries.

 

Scandinavia's biggest economy will see growth slow to less than 1% in 2012, down from an impressive 4.5% in 2011, according to the National Institute of Economic Research. Sweden relies heavily on exports to the rest of Europe, and the EU's protracted economic crisis will set it back.

 

Shortly before Christmas, the Riksbank cut its benchmark rate for the first time since 2009 to 1.75%. The NIER predicts further reductions this year in response to a weaker economy and slower inflation. This prospect underscores the seriousness of the situation -- and how valuable it is at such times to have an interest rate to change.

 

The value of monetary independence is the first and most important Swedish lesson. Sweden stayed out of the Euro system when the currency was introduced in 1999, and in the past several years, the government has used this monetary flexibility to the full.

 

With most of the EU bound by the European Central Bank's excessive monetary caution, the Riksbank cut interest rates more sharply than the ECB and (in real terms) the US Federal Reserve from 2007 to 2009. Its inflation-adjusted interest rate fell from 2.25% to minus 1.5%. The central bank also devised new credit facilities and other unconventional measures to support the Swedish financial system.

 

Fiscal policy played a smaller role in steadying the economy. This, too, was a legacy of the 1990s, when budget deficits widened and a national consensus formed around the need to curb government spending and stabilize the public finances. Sweden's subsequent success in doing that is nothing less than remarkable.

 

Hence Sweden's second lesson: Fiscal stimulus isn't a necessary condition for economic recovery. Through the course of the recent recession, the government's cyclically adjusted budget stayed in surplus. As a result, Swedish government debt stands at less than 40% of gross domestic product, among the lowest of any rich country.

 

Fiscal policy still helped to cushion the recession and support a recovery -- not with discretionary stimulus, but through so-called automatic stabilizers, which are relatively strong in Sweden. (Measures such as consumption taxes and generous unemployment benefits relax fiscal policy in recessions and tighten it in booms, even if policy stands pat.)

 

In Sweden's case, a firm fiscal hand, far from stifling the recovery, probably helped it along. Keeping the budget under control buoyed consumer and investor confidence. Surging demand for Swedish debt drove bond prices higher last year; indeed, Sweden's government pays less to borrow than Germany's.

 

Should others follow its example? For one group, the answer is plainly yes. Members of the EU that have not yet adopted the Euro are nonetheless committed in principle to doing so. (This includes Sweden; the UK and Denmark are two exceptions.) Sweden proves, if further proof were needed, that Euro membership is a mistake.

 

Lacking a currency to devalue and interest rates to cut, members of the Euro system would only worsen their recessions if they squeezed fiscal policy as tightly as Sweden did. Beyond the EU, though, Sweden does suggest that sufficiently powerful monetary easing can carry most, if not all, of the burden of economic stabilization.

 

Models have their limits. Every country has to cope with its own special circumstances. It helped Sweden that the most recent slump, unlike that of the 1990s, was export-led: Its exports are capital-intensive, so a drop in foreign demand raises unemployment by less than a decline in demand at home. It also helped that since coming to power in 2006, the country's centre-right coalition government has made private-sector job creation a priority.

 

Note, therefore, that this isn't the old Swedish model. Taxes on labour have been cut and the country's once-lavish welfare state is being squeezed.

 

What do Sweden's voters, who once elected left-wing Social Democrats by default, make of that? Their economic concerns have increased lately, but few blame Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt and his government, and the Social Democrats have failed to recover.

 

This suggests a third lesson, political rather than economic: Fiscal conservatism can be popular. Sweden is reluctant to put its hard-won fiscal strength at risk. Rightly so. Sweden is better placed than most to deal with the further economic setbacks the EU seems determined to dispense.

 

More interest-rate cuts and a shift to budget stimulus, if needed, are options that few other rich economies have!

 

On to another European country that is becoming increasingly 'prominent' - for all the wrong reasons and one that I said back in the middle of last year, we need to watch closely - Hungary.

 

Hungary pledged to discuss conditions for an International Monetary Fund loan as the government seeks to accelerate the talks after the Forint fell to a record and a government debt sale fell short of the target.

 

The Cabinet is ready to start negotiations on a standby loan agreement with the IMF and the European Union and wants a deal "quickly," Tamas Fellegi, Hungary's chief negotiator, told reporters in Budapest Thursday. The government seeks a precautionary loan to tap only if market conditions require it.

 

Talks for Hungary's second bailout in four years broke down last month as Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who shunned the IMF since taking office in 2010, refused to abandon a central bank law that the EU said threatens the monetary authority's independence. The Cabinet must prove that's not the case before talks can restart, the European Commission said Thursday.

 

The Forint strengthened against the Euro after Fellegi's comments after falling to a record low 324.24. The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond declined to 10.4%, after rising to as high as 11.34%.

 

Yes, 11.34% - sound like a viable rate? Oh come on!

 

The government sold 35 billion Forint ($140 million) in one-year bills Thursday, 10 billion Forint less than the planned amount. The average yield rose to 9.96%, the highest since April 2009, from 7.91% at the last sale of the same-maturity debt on Dec. 22.

 

Standard & Poor's followed Moody's Investors Service on 21 December in cutting Hungary's debt to junk, 15 years after the former communist country was awarded an investment-grade rating.

 

Orban swept to power in 2010, grabbing a two-thirds majority in parliament that allows him to unilaterally change the constitution.

 

He shunned IMF aid to protect what he called "unorthodox" measures from oversight. The steps included the effective nationalization of $13 billion of private pension-fund assets and extraordinary industry taxes to control the budget. There was a deficit of 182% of the Cabinet's full-year target at the end of November.

 

Hungary is ready to negotiate with the IMF and the EU "without conditions" and to "discuss everything at the negotiating table," Fellegi said, adding that this "doesn't mean we're ready to accept everything.'

 

''The government is completely aware of the stakes of financial talks with the IMF and the European Commission," Fellegi said Thursday. "We want a quick agreement."

 

After a stint as premier in 1998-2002, Orban rode a wave of discontent with a government that failed to meet EU budget targets after joining the bloc in 2004 even with austerity measures starting two years later.

 

The previous Socialist administration also angered Hungarians when it admitted to lying about the state of the economy to win the 2006 election, sparking demonstrations that included clashes between protesters and police in the country's worst street violence in 50 years.

 

Hungary defaulting remains a real possibility as Orban may balk at unwinding some of his economic policies in exchange for a bailout. If Hungary does agree a program with the EU and the IMF, it would not need to default. However the conditions attached may not be politically palatable for Orban, making bankruptcy a real possibility.

 

The end game here is a loan agreement sooner or later, as Hungary is very likely to experience difficulty in accessing capital markets at the current CDS levels.

 

From Europe to ..... Europe now - albeit a topic about China.

 

Who'd have thought not so long ago that we'd be seeing a Chinese Telecom' company opening services in the UK, France and Germany?

 

Well we will soon!

 

China Telecommunications, the nation's largest fixed-line phone company, plans to expand into more European markets after starting its first overseas wireless service in the UK

 

The service aimed at Chinese residents (or is that 'restaurants') will begin in the UK by the end of March and expand to Germany and France if it's successful, Ou Yan, managing director for China Telecom Europe, said this week.

 

There are 2 million Chinese living in Western Europe, Liu Changhai, the China Telecom executive responsible for regional development, said Thursday.

 

In the UK, China Telecom will target the more than half a million Chinese citizens living in the country and the tourists that will flock to the Olympic Games in London in June.

 

In China, intensifying competition has led companies including China United Network Communications Group to cut international roaming fees by as much as 90%.

 

"Our target customers are the Chinese communities," Liu said in a response to questions. "We are exploring a new market."

 

London-based China Telecom Europe is a subsidiary of the state-owned parent company and isn't part of publicly traded China Telecom Corporation.

 

The UK service will run on the network of Everything Everywhere, the joint venture between France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom, the company said Thursday. The company will become the first Chinese operator to start a mobile virtual network outside China, Liu said.

 

Setting up a mobile virtual network will help China Telecom, the nation's third-largest wireless carrier, compete on international roaming rates with China United

 

China Telecom will lease capacity from Everything Everywhere. It also held talks with Vodafone's wholesale business, people familiar with the matter said in September.

 

China Telecom signed a strategic agreement with France Telecom in October to provide services for business customers across each other's networks.

 

China Telecom's wireless service ranks behind China Mobile and China Unicom in the world's largest mobile market by users. China had 975 million mobile subscribers at the end of November, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

 

Staying with China in Europe, China's airlines will refuse to pay any charges under the European Union's new carbon trading scheme, while other Asia Pacific carriers, already battling a weak travel market, are likely to pass on the extra cost to passengers.

 

The EU's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) was launched in 2005 as one of the major pillars of the bloc's efforts to combat climate change. From 1 January, all airlines using EU airports are included in the cap-and-trade scheme.

 

"China will not cooperate with the European Union on the ETS, so Chinese airlines will not impose surcharges on customers relating to the emissions tax," the deputy secretary-general of the China Air Transport Association (CATA), said this week.

 

CATA represents the country's four major airlines: flag-carrier Air China Ltd , China Southern Airlines , China Eastern Airlines and Hainan Airlines.

 

Chinese airlines would consider taking legal action against the EU over the move to charge for carbon emissions on flights to and from Europe, CATA said, adding they would take their time on this, mindful that US airlines recently lost a legal challenge against the ETS and given that collection of the tax from airlines will not be until March 2013.

 

Australia's Qantas Airways has said it also plans to take legal action against the scheme.

 

"We are now walking on two legs - first, we would not rule out the chance of taking legal action and, second, to resort to the government for retaliatory measures. Several departments have been looking into this," CATA said.

 

CATA estimates the scheme will cost Chinese airlines 800 million RMB ($123 million) in the first year and more than triple that by 2020.

 

Germany's Lufthansa, the world's second-largest long-haul carrier after Dubai's Emirates, warned passengers on Monday to brace for higher ticket prices as it refuses to shoulder the costs of the carbon trading scheme.

 

The EU says its ETS, which already applies to other industries, is the fairest way to cope with aviation's contribution to global warming and cuts through years of inconclusive efforts to come up with a worldwide alternative.

 

Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific Airways and some other Asian airlines, facing a sluggish economy and weak cargo demand, said they may impose surcharges or increase airfares to counter the ETS impact.

 

Delta Air Lines, the No. 2 US carrier, slapped a $3 surcharge each way on tickets for flights between the United States and Europe.

 

"It's inevitable that increased costs will be passed on to passengers. We will share the details at the appropriate time," said a spokeswoman for Cathay Pacific, whose CEO has said the ETS would add about HK$50 ($6.44) to a ticket between Hong Kong and Europe.

 

Singapore Airlines, the world's second-most valuable airline, said it would try to offset the impact of the ETS by improving fuel efficiency and reducing its carbon emissions, which would lower the carbon charges.

 

Now what a good first reaction - no immediate thought of passing on the cost to the consumer - we like Singapore Airlines!

 

"However, we're not yet ruling out any options for recovering the additional cost," an SIA spokesman said.

 

Ah, SAC - Singapore Airlines Caveat!

 

The director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), has said the ETS would cost airlines 900 million Euros ($1.15 billion)in 2012 and the industry will not generally be able to pass this on to consumers because the market is too weak.

 

The IATA forecast a 49% fall in 2012 industry-wide profit to $3.5 billion on the back of a weak global economy and stubbornly high fuel prices.

 

Finally this week, I thought I'd mention the demise in 'last-salary' pensions in the UK.

 

Shell is to close the FTSE 100's last remaining final salary pension scheme to new hires in Britain, ending an era in which private sector workers could be confident of a guaranteed income throughout their retirements.

 

The move by Shell UK, which will take effect in 2013, comes as government ministers attempt to force public sector workers to pay higher contributions into schemes that would still be more predictable than those available to their private sector counterparts.

 

Shell UK maintains one of the country's best-funded pension schemes. At its last valuation at the end of 2010, it had a surplus. According to a valuation report at the time, the scheme had more than enough funds to pay all promised benefits in full and on time. In 2007, it was so well funded that Shell UK obtained permission from the Pensions Regulator to withhold contributions.

 

Shell is unusual among UK employers in that its scheme is particularly well funded and it does not appear to have been guided in its decision by a need to close off a scheme that threatens to siphon off cash that is badly needed for operations.

 

In a statement on its pension website for scheme members, Shell said it would replace the final salary plan with "a UK defined contribution pension plan". It added the replacement plan would ensure remuneration for new hires "remains strongly competitive".

 

A Shell UK spokesman confirmed the decision to close the scheme to new hires did not reflect concerns about future risk, but was instead taken "to reflect market trends in the UK", he said.

 

Unite, the union representing workers at Shell UK, criticised the move. "This is a disgraceful act, nothing less than greed on the part of one of the world's richest and most powerful corporations," they said, "They have no need whatsoever to close this scheme."

 

Under the defined contribution scheme that Shell plans to offer new hires, retirement incomes range widely depending on variables such as stock market movements, interest rates and changes in life expectancy.

 

Shell UK's decision reflects a larger trend across Britain. A recent survey by the National Association of Pension Funds found that only 19% of final salary and average salary schemes are still open to new hires.

 

In December, staff at Unilever took the unusual step of taking industrial action over plans to close the company's final salary pension plan to its existing workforce. So far, most industrial action in response to curtailed pensions has been in the public sector.

 

Unlike a number of employers, Shell will allow its workforce of roughly 6,200 employees to continue to receive salary-linked retirement benefits. As of the end of last year, roughly a quarter of all employers had closed such schemes to their existing workforce.

 

The move comes as government ministers struggle to force public sector workers to accept a form of retirement income that will be less generous - and require higher contributions - than that which they currently earn but is much more certain than that available to those with defined contribution benefits generally.

 

Maybe Shell saw the writing on the wall - the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (Eiopa) is proposing to adapt the Solvency II capital rules - due to be introduced in 2014 - for use in assessing the solvency of pension schemes.

 

Strange how Shell's latest move takes effect the year before ......

 

On to those numbers on the boards for the relatively lack-lustre week that was:

US Markets 
How the US did this week .....

 US SummaryThe stock market offered a reminder Friday that even if the US job market is improving, there's plenty to worry about elsewhere in the world. The unemployment rate fell in December to 8.5%, the lowest level in nearly three years. Yet stocks indexes teetered between small gains and losses as traders fretted about Europe's ongoing financial drama.

 

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 55.78 points, or 0.5%, to 12,359.92. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 3.25 points, or 0.3%, to 1,277.81 and the Nasdaq composite index rose 4.36, or 0.2%, to 2,674.22.

 

For the week and year to date: The Dow has risen 142.36 points, or 1.2%, the S&P 500 has risen 20.21 points, or 1.6% and the Nasdaq has risen 69.07 points, or 2.7%.

 

In the U.S. on Friday, the Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that the economy added a net 200,000 nonfarm payrolls in December, better than forecasts for a 150,000 gain.

 

The news firmed the dollar, especially since German factory orders came in weaker than expected at -4.8% compared with a forecast for a 1.6% decline, although equities investors sold to take profits, pointing out that the jobs market is still far from stellar.

 

Leading losers included Alcoa which fell 2.14%, Bank of America down 2.06% and DuPont down 1.31%

 

Leading gainers included Microsoft up 1.54%, Walt Disney up 1.04%, and McDonald's up 0.77%.

 

The medical sector had a very positive Friday; Advanced Cell Technology closed up 9.59%; Dendreon hiked up 16.29%; Geron was up 3.09% and International Stem Cell up 45% to $0.58; Pluristem gained 6.54% and ThermoGenesis 1.19%. Finally Tengion raised an impressive +17.89%.

 

Treasuries rallied Friday even though a report showed the U.S. added 200,000 jobs in December, and corporate debt continued to outperform while the honeymoon sentiment that accompanied the new year's opening begins to fade.

 

The U.S. new-issue market was dominated by Bank of Montreal. BMO sold $1.5 billion in new five-year notes Friday at 1.70 percentage points over comparable government debt, a yield of 2.544%, according to a person familiar with the offering.

 

That was in line with official guidance, but inside the whispered price earlier this session of 1.75 percentage points.

 

The offering caps a week in which $11.5 billion of bond issuance from financial institutions had already priced, putting it on track to be the busiest week for these issuers since the middle of July 2011.

 

BMO led the sale itself alongside Goldman Sachs Group, J.P. Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley and proceeds will be used for general corporate and funding purposes.

 

The 2.5% notes are rated Aa2 by Moody's Investors Service and A-plus by Standard & Poor's.

European Markets 
What has been happening in Europe this week .....

 Europe SummaryEuropean stocks closed little changed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index completing its third straight weekly gain, as a report showed US employers added more jobs than economists had predicted.

 

The benchmark Stoxx 600 rose less than 0.1% to 247.53 at the close of trading, having earlier climbed as much as 0.9% and fallen 0.3%. The gauge advanced 1.2% this week and has rallied 15% (SXXP) from last year's lowest level on Sept. 22 as US economic reports showed the recovery is gathering pace and optimism grew that Euro-area policy makers will contain the region's sovereign-debt crisis.

 

National benchmark indexes declined in 12 of the 14 western European markets open Friday. Germany's DAX Index slipped 0.6% and France's CAC 40 retreated 0.2%. The UK's FTSE 100 Index rose 0.5%. Markets were closed in Greece, Finland, Sweden and Austria for a holiday.

 

Euro-area consumer confidence fell to the lowest in more than two years and unemployment remained at a 13-year high, according to data released Friday.

 

An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 17- nation Euro area fell to 93.3 in December from a revised 93.8 in November, the European Commission in Brussels said. That was in line with the median of 19 economists' estimates (EUESEMU) in a survey. The unemployment rate held at 10.3% in November, a separate report showed.

 

GERMANY

 

German stocks dropped, trimming the DAX Index's third straight weekly advance, as the biggest drop in factory orders in almost three years added to concern Europe's debt crisis is cooling the economy.

 

BASF and Bayer declined as companies most dependent on economic growth retreated. Deutsche Bank, the nation's biggest lender, fell for a third day.

 

The DAX slipped 0.6% to 6,057.92 at the close in Frankfurt, having earlier advanced as much as 0.9%. The decline trimmed this week's advance to 2.7%. The wider HDAX Index dropped 0.5% Friday.

 

The DAX has increased 19% from last year's lowest level on Sept. 12 as US economic data showed the recovery is gathering pace and optimism grew that Euro-area policy makers will contain the region's debt crisis. The gauge is still 20% below its 2011 high as borrowing costs from Spain to Italy jumped, raising concern the European Union will have to bail out more countries.

 

BASF, the world's largest chemical maker, dropped 1.5% to 55.92 Euros. Bayer declined 1% to 51.77 Euros. Daimler, maker of the Mercedes Benz cars, dropped 1.1% to 36.47 Euros.

 

Deutsche Bank fell 3.5% to 27 Euros, taking its retreat in the past three days to 12%.

 

K+S, Europe's biggest producer of potash, climbed 1.7% to 36.71 Euros. Monsanto Co., the world's largest seed company, Thursday reported fiscal first-quarter profit that exceeded analysts' estimates as sales rose in Latin America.

 

Fraport, operator of the Frankfurt airport, rose 3.5% to 40.07 Euros, the largest advance since Nov. 30. Equinet raised its recommendation on the shares to "buy" from "accumulate," adding that the company is likely to post "significant" growth in sales and earnings in coming years.

 

The German government successfully raised approximately Eur 4 billion in an oversubscribed 10-year bond auction at the start of the year.

 

The Bundesbank said it sold Eur 4.057 billion in an issue which received bids for Eur 5.14 billion. The bids exceeded the maximum sales target of Eur 5 billion.

 

The demand for the issue outstripped supply by 1.3 times. The last 10-year bond issue held on 23 November failed to see adequate demand from investors.

 

Moreover, the average yield fell to 1.93% from 1.98% logged during the prior auction in November.

 

German private sector expanded in December as previously estimated, final survey data from Markit Economics showed Wednesday.

 

The final composite output index, that measures activity in both manufacturing and services, rose to 51.3 in December from 49.4 in November. This matched the flash estimate. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector.

 

Growth of service sector activity helped offset a marginal drop in manufacturing production during December, Markit said.

 

The services business activity index rose to 52.4 from 50.3 in November. This was below the flash reading of 52.7. Higher levels of services activity were supported by increased new business volumes, as well as the completion of unfinished work, according to the survey.

 

December data indicated that service providers finished 2011 with an acceleration of output growth to its strongest since July, Markit said. The index remained above the neutral mark of 50 for a third month in running.

 

Unemployment in Germany declined more than expected in December, data from the Federal labour Agency showed Tuesday. Concurrently, the jobless rate dropped after holding steady in the past two months.

 

The number of unemployed declined by 22,000 to 2.89 million, while economists had expected the figure to fall by 10,000. In November, unemployment fell by 23,000.

 

The number of people out of work in Germany has been declining almost steadily since February last year, despite the prolonged debt crisis that shook the entire Eurozone.

 

The seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell to 6.8% in December from 6.9% in November. Economists had expected the rate to remain steady. A year earlier, the rate was at 7.4%.

 

The Federal Statistical Office said on Monday that the unemployment rate in Germany declined for a second consecutive year in 2011. Employment reached an all-time high of 41.04 million, breaching the previous record of 2010.

 

The positive development was related to the short-term economic upswing that continued for two years, the agency said. The trend was also supported by the fact that the number of employed persons in 2009 remained stable despite the deterioration in Germany's economic performance caused by the global financial crisis.

 

The latest purchasing managers' survey of the factory sector showed that German manufacturers continued to hire additional staff at a solid pace in December. However, the overall rate of job creation was the weakest since May 2010 as the manufacturing sector contracted for a third month running.

 

The outlook for the German economy is weak, due to the slowing demand from Europe and slowdown in global growth owing to the debt turmoil in Europe. In its December monthly report, Bundesbank said that economic growth will slow notably next year amid deteriorating global outlook.

 

The central bank expects the economy to grow only 0.6% in 2012, slower than 3% estimated for 2011. In 2013, the economy is seen expanding 1.8%. German exporters are likely to see a significant impact from slowing demand in Europe, according to the bank.

 

Germany's Ifo Institute also slashed its forecasts for the economy for both this year and the next, citing weakening world economy and the European debt crisis. Ifo now sees gross domestic product growth at 0.4% in 2012 and 3% this year.

 

The institute said it expects growth in employment to slow significantly next year, but unemployment will decrease by around 140,000 supported by demographic factors.

 

FRANCE

 

In Paris the CAC40 closed the week at 3,137.36, down 0.24%.

 

French service providers reported an increase in business activity in December, final data from Markit Economics showed Wednesday.

 

The final services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 50.3 from 49.6 in November. The reading was slightly above the 50.2 flash estimate. That was its first reading above the 50.0 no-change threshold in three months.

 

"Conditions nevertheless remain fragile amid the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone situation, with firms commenting on delayed client spending decisions and a general sense of hesitancy," said a senior economist at Markit.

 

At the same time, the composite output index came in at 50, up from 48.8 in November. The flash estimate for December was 49.8.

 

French consumer spending decreased 0.1% month-on-month in November, the statistical office Insee said Wednesday. Economists were expecting spending to rise 0.4% after increasing a revised 0.1% in October.

 

There was a decrease in the consumption of textiles and leather products during November. On the other hand, purchases of durable goods increased 1.5% month-on-month, due to a rebound in car sales.

 

Car purchases rose 3.2% after a 1.1% slump in October. However, expenditure on household durables decreased 0.5%.

 

Consumption of energy products decreased again in November, falling 0.8% from the previous month. This was mainly due to lower spending on fuel and electricity.

 

Activity in the French Manufacturing sector decreased slightly less than previously estimated in December, final data from a survey by Markit Economics and CDAF showed Monday.

 

The purchasing managers index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector came in at 48.9 in December, higher than 48.7 estimated earlier. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector, while one above suggests growth.

 

The latest reading was the highest in four months. In November, the reading was 47.3.

 

Production in French factories decreased for the fifth month in a row in December. However, the rate of fall slowed from the previous month, owing to a moderation in the rate of decline in new orders.

 

French manufacturers raised their workforce in December, though marginally, after reducing slightly in November. Backlogs of work remained almost unchanged in December, after declining in the previous four months.

 

Input prices dropped for a third consecutive month in December, but the latest decrease was marginal. Output prices continued to grow, though at a slower pace compared to November.

 

BELGIUM

 

The Bel 20 in Brussels ended the week at 2,093.27, down 0.17%.

 

Belgium is prepared to take additional measures to combat its crisis, Prime Minister Elio di Rupo said in a New Year's address.

 

"The aims of the new government is to come out of the crisis as soon as possible, to relaunch our economy, to shore up our welfare system and reestablish confidence among citizens and businesses," he said in a statement Sunday.

 

"To do this, we will implement decisions already taken and will take, if necessary, some additional balanced measures."

 

The prime minister didn't specify the measures that may be needed.

 

Di Rupo's comments come after Belgium Central Bank Governor Luc Coene said last week that growth in 2012 could be lower than expected and as a result the new government may have to make greater fiscal consolidation efforts.

 

For Di Rupo, who stitched together a six-party coalition government in late November after months of delicate negotiations, additional fiscal consolidation could prove a tough political balancing act.

 

Coalition talks nearly broke down over disputes on how to find Eur11.3 billion in savings for next year and took several weeks to complete. Finding additional tax revenue or spending cuts could test the coalition's political mettle.

 

The 2012 budget is premised on growth of around 0.8%. Coene said growth may be closer to 0.5% this year.

 

In his message, Di Rupo said the economic downturn of recent years has been "a profound crisis" which has "destroyed entire sectors of the real economy."

 

"2012 will be a decisive year," he said. "We will have to transform these difficulties into new opportunities," he said.

 

Savings account deposits at Belgian banks KBC and Dexia Bank Belgium, the nationalised arm of Dexia Group, fell in 2011, business daily De Tijd reported on Tuesday.

 

Savers withdrew 1.4 billion Euros from KBC and 3.5 billion Euros from Dexia Bank Belgium, a decline of 4.1 and 10.4% respectively, the paper said.

 

This was partly the result of a successful Belgian retail bond sale in December which raised 5.7 billion Euros and was mostly funded by savings, but also an indication of dwindling trust in these banks, the paper said.

 

Neither Dexia Bank Belgium nor KBC were immediately available for comment.

 

Deposits at Belgium's BNP Paribas Fortis were largely unchanged in comparison with last year, while ING Belgium posted an increase of 8.5%, De Tijd reported.

 

Belgian savers also increased their deposits with smaller players on the Belgian market such as Deutsche Bank and Rabobank, the paper said.

 

Belgium's 4Energy , which uses discarded wood to generate electricity and to make coal-like pellets, has agreed a new repayment schedule with its banks after breaking debt covenants at its two main plants.

 

At its plant in Amel, in the east of Belgium, 4Energy's bank KBC has agreed to delay start of repayments of its long-term credit facility by three months to March 31, the company said on Monday.

 

It is currently looking for a strategic partner for the site to help pay for further investment, after it discovered that more work had to be done to make it work at full capacity.

 

It also said KBC and ING have agreed to waive the fact that it broke its credit agreement for its plant in Ham, Belgium, which has suffered from a decline in the price of green certificates due to oversupply.

 

It said in November last year it would not meet the terms of its debt covenants for the Ham operation.

 

THE NETHERLANDS

 

In Amsterdam the AEX headed into the weekend on 311.11, down 0.26%.

 

The Dutch government's borrowing rates fell to near zero% in a pair of short-term auctions Tuesday, in a sign that investors are searching out what they consider to be Europe's safer assets at a time of concern over the level of debts in a number of countries.

 

Finance ministry spokeswoman Lies Weitenberg said a three-month auction Tuesday raised €3 billion ($3.9 billion) at zero%, while the one-year offering reaped €1.6 billion ($2.1 billion) at 0.05%

 

She said the extremely low rates were unusual but not unheard of. Last month the government raised a small amount of short-term paper at negative rates, meaning buyers were willing to pay the state for the favour of lending it money.

 

The Dutch economy and government are not in outstanding shape, but look better by comparison to many European countries.

 

The Netherlands' economy is believed to have entered a mild recession in the third quarter and government forecasts don't foresee a return to growth until mid-2012.

 

The conservative government has been cutting spending but still expects the country's deficit to have been 4.6% of GDP in 2011 - above the 3% limit prescribed by European budget rules.

 

National debt is estimated at a relatively low 65.2% of GDP, with unemployment at just 5.5%. However, Dutch personal debt levels are among the highest in Europe, due mostly to mortgage debt.

 

Civil service pension fund APB has put American supermarket chain Walmart and oil giant PetroChina on its investment blacklist.

 

ABP, one of the biggest pension funds in the world, said in a statement it is excluding Walmart because 'its personnel policy conflicts with international guidelines from the ILO, in particular in relation to working conditions and unionisation'.

 

PetroChina is on the blacklist because of 'the activities of its parent company CNPC in Sudan and Burma', the statement said.

 

All ABP's investments in the two companies have now been sold, the statement said. The fund stopped investing in weapons companies several years ago. It bases its investment policy on the 10 principles outlined in the United Nations' Global Compact.

 

ABP has invested assets of some €240bn and takes care of the pensions of 2.8 million civil servants and teachers.

 

Dutch manufacturing conditions deteriorated at the second-sharpest rate in two-and-a-half years in December, a survey by Markit Economics showed Monday.

 

The headline NEVI Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector registered 46.2 in December, up only marginally from 46.0 in November.

 

New orders continued to fall at a marked rate during December, as client demand suffered amid a worsening macroeconomic environment.

 

SWITZERLAND

 

Zurich's SMI drew a line under the trading week at 6,013.83, down 0.21%.

 

The president of Switzerland's central bank was under growing pressure to reveal details of private currency trading deals that earned him thousands.

 

The family of Philipp Hildebrand earned 75,000 Swiss Francs at a time when his bank was acting to depress the value of the Swiss Franc.

 

The Swiss National Bank tried to quash criticism by releasing an independent auditors' report which concluded that currency deals from his private account were "delicate" but did not break internal guidelines.

 

It also released its previously secret guidelines for senior officials and said Hildebrand would hold a news conference Friday.

 

The publication of the documents came hours after the Swiss political weekly Weltwoche claimed Mr Hildebrand had personally authorised the currency deals previously thought to have been conducted by his wife.

 

The bank said last month that Mr Hildebrand's wife Kashya, a former currency trader who now runs an art gallery in Zurich, bought an unspecified amount of US Dollars for herself and her daughter.

 

The central bank did not say who authorised the sale, but said its oversight body had concluded there had been no inappropriate transactions nor any abuse of privileged information by those involved.

 

The PWC auditors' report cites emails indicating that Mr Hildebrand learned of his wife's decision to purchase $504,000 (£389,000) for 400,000 francs on August 16 - a day after the transaction occurred. The audit report does not say whether it was Hildebrand or his wife who, less than two months later, sold $516,000 (£398,000) for 475,000 Swiss francs.

 

However, between the purchase and the sale of US currency, the Swiss National Bank increased franc liquidity and set the minimum exchange rate of the Euro at 1.20 francs. The two actions helped to sharply raise the value of major currencies against the franc.

 

Auditors concluded that the purchase of US Dollars two days before the SNB's liquidity decision was "delicate," but since Mr Hildebrand had declared the purchase a day before he had not breached any rules.

 

But public outcry over the currency deals has grown with media commentators and politicians demanding greater transparency from the SNB and from Mr Hildebrand, whose unblemished image is considered crucial to the credibility of Switzerland's small but powerful central bank.

 

Swiss retailers Coop and Manor have joined forces to ask for a minimum exchange rate of 1.40 francs ($1.50) per Euro and longer opening hours.

 

The supermarket and department store titans want the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to intervene again to lower the value of the national currency against the Euro in order to fight retail tourism in bordering countries.

 

"As long as the Euro is not worth 1.30 francs ($1.39), the retail trade will suffer a competitive disadvantage against other countries," said Bertrand Jungo, head of Manor, in an interview with newspaper SonntagsBlick.

 

His counterpart at Coop, Joos Sutter, issued a similar message in a column published in the SonntagsZeitung.

 

"A minimum exchange rate set at 1.45 francs ($1.55) would help us," he wrote, admitting the goal was "not realistic" and that a cap of 1.30 francs ($1.39) per Euro would also be welcome.

 

On September 6th, the SNB set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs ($1.28) to the Euro in order to stop the "massive overvaluation" of Switzerland's national currency that has been hurting many industries and economic sectors, such as retail and tourism, for the last two years.

 

But establishing a new cap for the franc is not the only measure proposed by the heads of Coop and Manor to prevent millions of francs from leaking across the country's borders.

 

Both Sutter and Jungo also argue for an extension of opening hours in Switzerland in order to compete with the longer shopping days on offer at the other side of the border.  

 

The Manor chief cited the example of Germany's opening hours.

 

"In December, the shops were open until as late as midnight," said Jungo, pointing out that customers can cross the border and continue shopping once stores in Basel have closed.

 

He stopped short of calling for a full liberalization of opening times, which are set by the individual cantons, instead suggesting that shops be kept open until 8pm from Monday to Saturday.

 

Sutter proposed another measure to fight shopping tourism: reducing the duty-free limit, currently 300 francs ($321), for goods purchased abroad.

 

Swiss-Belhotel International has announced the signing of an MOU for a new property under the Swiss-Belinn brand. The new property, Swiss-Belinn Cengkareng is currently under development in Jakarta.

 

Swiss-Belinn Cengkareng will provide both leisure and business travellers affordable accommodation with the Swiss-Belinn brand's high international standard of services and facilities. The new hotel couldn't be better situated. It is just ten minutes from Soekarno-Hatta International Airport and has easy access to the ring road linking all parts of the city.

 

AUSTRIA

 

The ATX in Vienna rounded out the Thursday session (it was closed Friday) and the week at 1,891.18, down 2.43%.

 

Social Democratic (SPÖ) General Secretary Laura Rudas has defended her party's intention to increase taxes.

 

The SPÖ wants to raise some taxation rates to restore the budget while its coalition partner, the conservative People's Party (ÖVP), expressed the intention to concentrate on lowering investments. Rudas said Wednesday "all experts" were of the opinion that a well-considered mixture of tax hikes and spending cuts was needed to drag Austria out of the financial danger zone.

 

Rudas also pointed out that the Social Democrats did not present only a list of possible tax increases but also identified areas where cuts could be made. The general secretary - a rival of SPÖ General Secretary Günther Kräuter but a close political ally of SPÖ Chancellor Werner Faymann and SPÖ Vienna Mayor Michael Häupl - explained several public administration measures could be financially supported less strongly in the coming years.

 

Rudas' explanations came one day after ÖVP whip Karlheinz Kopf accused the SPÖ of being "driven by ideology". Newspaper commentators claimed the coalition already agreed to raise some taxes when the outspoken opponent of tax hikes said taxation burdens would only be worsened if the SPÖ forced his party to do so. Kopf refused to comment on whether high incomes could be taxed more drastically from next year but made clear that the ÖVP would veto any attempt to set up an inheritance tax.

 

The latest labour statistic has dished up good and bad news for Austria's lawmakers and employees.

 

Around 360,500 people had no job last month, according to Statistik Austria. The agency said Monday this was a decline of 0.8% compared to December 2010. It pointed out that the number of people sitting re-education courses organised by the Labour Market Service (AMS) in cooperation with the labour minister of Social Democrat (SPÖ) Rudolf Hundstorfer dropped by nine%.

 

The domestic construction industry benefited from the extraordinarily mild weather in the country's lowlands. High temperatures and a lack of snow enabled firms to keep operating instead of reporting their staff as unemployed throughout winter. A worrying aspect of the December labour figures is that the number of jobless women soared by 4.1%.

 

Austria's economic condition is challenged by the high number of people retiring before the regular pension age. Men quit at an average age of 58.9 years instead of 65 while women stop working when they turn 57.5. The regular pension age for women employed in Austria is 60. Women working in the public sector must work until aged 65. Another aspect harming Austria's competitiveness is the decreasing quality of education, according to a string of experts. Education sector researchers appealed to the SPÖ-ÖVP coalition to sharply raise its spending on schools of all kind and the country's universities.

 

Austria registered 3.3 million employed citizens in December, 1.9% more than in December 2010. The country is doing better than any other European Union (EU) member considering the overall unemployment rate. Around 4.1% of people living in the small alpine country were out of work in October, according to Eurostat.

 

The European Commission's (EC) statistics authority said Luxembourg took second place at 4.7%, followed by the Netherlands with an unemployment rate of 4.8%.

 

Austria's merchandise trade deficit increased from last year in October, data released by Statistics Austria showed Wednesday.

 

The trade deficit increased to Eur501.41 million in October from Eur494.24 million in the same month last year.

 

Export of goods increased 6.6% on an annual basis to Eur10.54 billion in October. Shipments the European Union (EU) countries moved up 1% annually during the month, while dispatches to non-EU states advanced 21.7%.

 

Imports advanced 6.4% year-on-year to Eur 11.04 billion. Arrivals from EU27 rose 2.2% year-on-year, while imports from the non-EU countries climbed 17.4% in October.

 

In the January-October period, the trade balance was a deficit of Eur 6.61 billion. Exports climbed 13.5% annually in the ten-month period, while imports rose 16.3%.

 

SWEDEN

 

The OMX in Stockholm completed a hectic trading week on Thursday on 1,002.17, down 0.41% - the market was closed Friday.

 

The head of Sweden's central bank has said he expects Sweden's interest rates to remain at their current low level in 2012, but warned banks that they must be more open about how much they earn from lending to customers.

 

Governor Stefan Ingves defended the Riksbank's policies, despite concerns that banks are not passing on lower interest rates to borrowers:

 

"Our interest rate decisions have an impact, even if they do not have an immediate effect. The monetary policy of Riksbanken is still effective in terms of capital management," Ingves told the Dagens Nyheter daily.

 

But, he said, banks should have "clearer policies as to how they declare their margins.".

 

Concerns were raised after last December's interest rate cut, as banks were slow to follow suit and cut mortgage rates.

 

On the broader economic outlook, Ingves said Swedish banks' reliance on international loans made it harder to maintain stability. However, he said Swedes had reason to be optimistic about the year ahead, despite great financial turmoil in the world.

 

"Sweden has a steady position with low debts and a balanced government budget. Expectations both for inflation and long-term inflation remain under control. Meanwhile, financial growth and productivity have developed well," he told DN.

 

While Sweden's export figures represent half of its gross domestic product it also has strong capital flows, which strengthens the positive outlook, according to Ingves.

 

Swedish tax officials have told Finnish utility firm Fortum to pay around 415 million Swedish crowns ($61 million) in back taxes, citing improper tax deductions by subsidiaries in 2009.

 

Swedish authorities raised the 2009 tax assessment on Fortum Sweden and Fortum Nordic, tax official Jan Amnebler said on Tuesday.

 

Fortum's Sweden-based business did not have the right to make deductions for certain interest rate costs, the official said.

 

Activity in Sweden's manufacturing sector decreased less than economists expected in December, data from a survey by Swedbank showed Monday.

 

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector came in at 48.9 in December, higher than 47.8% economists expected. A PMI reading below 50 indicate contraction in the sector, while one above suggests growth. In November, the reading was 47.6.

 

The slowdown in the rate of contraction reflected positive contributions from industrial production, improved delivery times and employment.

 

New business received by manufacturers decreased marginally during the month, mainly reflecting weaker demand in the domestic market.

 

Employment in Swedish factories remained largely unchanged in December. The requirement for new employment in the industry is expected to remain limited in coming months, the agency said.

 

In the dark days between Christmas and New Year, Swedes gather their families, celebrate the season and - buy package holidays to the sun. For 2012 the numbers of holidays sold is at a record high.

 

The rush to buy holidays started already on Christmas Day and during the days leading up to New Years Eve the pressure has been on for Swedish travel agencies.

 

Travel agency Apollo has already sold 39% more summer holidays than during the same period last year.

 

Competitor Ving reports that they are experiencing the same boom, as was recorded last year, selling for a whopping 110 million Kronor ($16 million) a day.

 

The days between Christmas and New Year, as well as the month of January, are traditionally the year's strongest sales period for travel agencies in Sweden.

 

DENMARK

 

Copenhagen's OMX closed out the Friday trading session on 398.42, 0.31% down for the day.

 

Denmark's central bank said on Wednesday that the government's domestic bond issuance requirement for 2012 had fallen to 28 billion Danish Crowns ($4.91 billion) from an estimate of 38 billion given in its debt management strategy.

 

"The strategy for 2012 is unchanged," the Nationalbank said in a statement.

 

"In order to reduce the government's refinancing risk the strategy is to begin to finance the issuance requirement for 2013 in 2012 and continue an active buy-back policy," it said.

 

A surge in demand for Danish bonds and bills from investors seeking to escape Europe's debt crisis is allowing the Nordic nation to get paid to borrow. Local buyers aren't as enamored.

 

The country last week sold 2.02 billion Kroner ($351 million) in two-month and five-month bills at negative yields. A central bank report Thursday showed foreign ownership of government debt rose to 35% in November, the most since October 2000, as investors outside Denmark raised their holdings by 49% to 267 billion Kroner from a year earlier.

 

Denmark on Dec. 29 sold 1.8 billion kroner of 59-day bills and 220 million kroner of 151-day bills at negative yields of 0.21% and 0.07%, respectively. At the end of November, foreigners owned 56 billion kroner in Danish T-bills, 94.5% of the total, according to central bank data.

 

"It's the first time that the Danish state has issued notes at a negative yield," Ove Sten Jensen, a spokesman for the central bank's debt office, said in a phone interview Thursday. "There are some investors who are very eager to place their money in papers where they are very certain to get the principle amount back."

 

The yield on Denmark's 2-year bond fell five basis points to 0.09%Friday. The country's 10-year notes yield 26 basis points less than German debt with a similar maturity. Danish government debt returned 13.45% last year.

 

Shares in Vestas Wind Systems have fallen sharply after the world's biggest wind turbine manufacturer by market share warned that order delays and production problems would wipe out last year's operating profits.

 

Ditlev Engel, chief executive, said the company had suffered €125m of cost overruns and deferred €400m of revenues into 2012 wiping out €130m of profit and triggering the latest downgrade of its targets.

 

Its expectations for earnings before interest and tax for 2011 were reduced from €255m to "approx €0" as ebit margin was also reduced from 4% to zero, Vestas said. At the end of October, the company had already downgraded its ebit margin forecast from 7 to 4%.

 

Since then poor weather in Europe had delayed the transfer of risk on a number of installations and delayed Vestas's ability to book revenues under revised accounting policies.

 

Mr Engel said high winds in northern Europe in December had exacerbated weather-related delays, particularly in Germany, which accounted for €210m of deferred revenues. He argued that much of the deferrals could be recovered in the first quarter of 2012.

 

However, he also admitted that Vestas had been over-optimistic with its predictions of wind turbine demand in China last year, while the company was also preparing for a likely downturn in the US market this year and next.

 

If the US did not agree to the extension of wind turbine subsidies, "2012 will become a very challenging year for the wind turbine industry due to a significantly reduced US market", said Mr Engel. He added: "In 2011 in particular, the Chinese market as not developed at a speed anticipated when the year started."

 

Mr Engel and Henrik Nørremark, chief financial officer, have already signalled Vestas's intention to shave at least €150m from its cost base in the coming year. They declined to comment further on the outcome of an organisational review launched in the wake of its previous profit warning but confirmed the announcement of the details would be brought forward from February to January 12.

 

Denmark's industrial sector expanded in December, after contracting for two months in a row, data from a survey by DILF showed Monday.

 

The purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 59.8 in December from 48.2 in November. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while one below suggests decline. In October, the reading was 43.7.

 

New orders received by Danish firms increased significantly in December, after falling in the previous two months.

 

Reflecting the robust order growth, firms increased production markedly during the month, and the pace of growth accelerated from November. Employment in the sector grew modestly in December, recovering from the previous months' decline.

 

FINLAND

 

In Helsinki the OMX finished the week at 5,513.83, up 0.11% on the day Thursday; the market was closed Friday.

 

Nokia are relocating their Singapore Apac' HQ to Beijing it was revealed this week.

 

"Nokia's APAC HQ will be relocated to Beijing as part of our strategy to adapt our operations to the business environment to ensure our competitiveness. This includes an increasing focus on assembly in Asia, close to our suppliers. The structure of the region is therefore being aligned to support the execution of the company's strategy and savings target we announced last year, in bringing efficiencies and speed to the organization" the company said in a statement.

 

Finland's trade deficit narrowed sharply in November due to an increase in exports, data from the National Customs Board showed Thursday.

 

The trade gap totaled Eur 260 million compared to a revised Eur 621 million a month ago. During the same period of last year, the deficit was Eur 196 million.

 

Exports of goods rose around 10% from a month ago to Eur 4.88 billion. At the same time, imports climbed about 2% to Eur 5.14 billion. On a yearly comparison, exports rose 1% and imports climbed 2% in November.

 

Talvivaara Mining, a Finnish nickel miner, rose the most in more than three years in London trading after meeting its 2011 output target.

 

The company produced 16,087 metric tons of nickel last year, compared with a forecast of 16,000 tons, it said Thursday in a statement. Zinc output totaled 31,815 tons.

 

Production last year was curtailed by extended maintenance in April and May at Talvivaara's plant in Sotkamo, eastern Finland. On 7 October, the company lowered its 2011 output target to 16,000 tons from an April estimate of 22,000 to 28,000 tons and Chief Executive Officer Pekka Pera announced he would quit.

 

Talvivaara reached a production record of 4,769 tons of nickel and 10,524 tons of zinc in the fourth quarter, it said in Friday's statement.

 

"The availability of the metals recovery plant improved significantly during the quarter and after both production lines were brought back online in mid-October, was effectively at the level required to meet the 2012 production targets," it said.

 

Talvivaara plans to produce 25,000 tons to 30,000 tons of nickel this year, the Espoo-based company said on 17 November. It's targeting zinc volumes of 50,000 tons to 60,000 tons.

 

2011 marked a new record year for OP-Kiinteistökeskus real estate agents, which recorded a total of around 17,200 home and real property sales, or some 200 transactions more than in 2010.

 

Although Finnish consumers and home buyers have been bombarded with bad economic news since last summer and their future confidence have been put to the test, property and home sales have remained relatively buoyant, says Kenneth Sandberg, Vice President, Estate Agent Services of OP-Pohjola.

 

Mr Sandberg states that the reasons for the lively market include historically low borrowing costs, stabilised price development, steady employment, spending power that has remained relatively steady, and the fact that home and real property sales and purchases are based on a real need.

 

The market has remained active in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area and growth poles, but for OP-Kiinteistökeskus real estate agents, no regions or towns differ in their market activity level in any special way. Sales also remained relatively steady throughout the year.

 

For OP-Kiinteistökeskus real estate agents, the time that it takes to sell a flat remained at the same level throughout the autumn, or an average of 66 days. In comparison with the average time reported for the second quarter, the time frame has lengthened only by four days. The time did not lengthen over autumn 2010 either, says Sandberg.

 

Only the most expensive homes and real properties have actually seen longer selling periods, their time frame lengthening by up to 20 days compared with that in early summer 2011, averaging some 110 days.

 

NORWAY

 

Oslo's OBX pulled the curtains on the trading session Friday at 363.88, down 0.30%.

 

Norway's capital requirements are not transparent enough and place its banks at a competitive disadvantage in the Nordic region, DNB ASA Chief Financial Officer Bjoern Erik Naess wrote in an opinion article in Dagens Naeringsliv.

 

Norwegian banks have higher risk-weighting on lending than Swedish banks, Naess wrote in the Oslo-based newspaper. Methods of calculating and risk weightings should be harmonized throughout the Nordic region, he said.

 

Norway's central bank is offering an F-deposit facility for Jan. 5-16 at a maximum rate of 1.75%, the bank said on its page on Thursday.

 

The central bank regularly offers short-term fixed-rate lending and deposit facilities known as F-loans and F-deposits, to manage liquidity and provide a predictable environment for the bank sector.

 

The facilities are the bank's most commonly used tools for money market operations.

 

House prices in Norway are likely to grow at a slower pace in 2012, owing to increased housing construction, the effects of the global financial turmoil and the tighter credit policy, the Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF) said Monday.

 

Prices of houses are expected to grow at 4% in 2012, slower than the 9% growth recorded in 2011, the group said. The agency said house price increase in urban areas is expected to be faster than average, while in rural areas it seen as subdued. Meanwhile, living expenses of Norwegian households would remain moderate during the year, given the low interest expenses and an expected wage growth.

 

According to NEF, the impact of the Eurozone debt crisis could be significantly small on Norway's residential property market, compared to the other European countries.

 

Latest data showed that house prices in Norway rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in December. Year-on-year, house prices advanced 8.5% during the month.

 

Norway's manufacturing activity contracted further in December, survey results from the Fokus Bank and the Norwegian Association of Purchasing and Logistics showed Tuesday.

 

The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 46.6 in December from 48.5 in November. This was the lowest level since October 2009. A reading below 50 suggests contraction in the sector.

 

The production index dropped to 48.8 in December from 51.0 in November. The indicator fell below the neutral 50 mark for the first time since November 2009. At the same time, the orders index dipped to 40.8 from 47.4 last month.

 

The employment index was unchanged at 44.7 in December, indicating a fall in manufacturing employment in the fourth quarter. Inventory came in at 51.4, up from 49.4 in November.

 

SPAIN

 

The IBEX in Madrid drew to a close Friday on 8,289.10, a drop of 0.49% for the day.

 

Spain's unemployment increased for the fifth consecutive month in December, data released by the labour Ministry showed Tuesday.

 

In December, unemployment rose by 1,897 or 0.04% from a month ago. But the rate of increase slowed from the prior month. The number of unemployed totaled 4.42 million. During December 2010, the unemployment was down 10,221 on a monthly basis.

 

In 2011, unemployment increased by 322,286 or 7.86%.

 

Data showed that registered unemployment in agriculture dropped by 5,636 in December, while it increased 9,034 in industry. Unemployment in construction rose by 23,778 and dropped 12,465 in services.

 

Spain's services activity continued to contract in December, but the rate of decline slowed from a month ago, data from Markit Economics revealed Wednesday.

 

The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 42.1 in December from the 32-month low of 36.8 in November. Still, the reading signals substantial contraction.

 

"The Spanish service sector ended 2011 on a grim note, with the average activity index reading for the fourth quarter the lowest since Q1 2009," said an economist at Markit and author of the report.

 

Business activity in the service sector decreased throughout the last six months. New orders declined sharply as clients were reluctant to proceed with new projects amid economic uncertainties. Falling new work led companies to concentrate resources on the completion of existing projects.

 

Companies continued to lower their staffing levels in line with falling workloads. Input costs increased at a solid pace, while service providers registered a further considerable decrease in output prices.

 

Spain's export price inflation eased in November after stabilizing in the previous month, data released by statistical office Ine showed Wednesday.

 

The export price index increased 4.4% on an annual basis in November, slower than the 5.3% growth seen in October, which was unchanged from the previous month.

 

Export prices of consumer goods advanced 3.7% year-on-year, while prices of capital goods rose 1.4%. There was a 4.3% annual growth in export prices of intermediate goods during the month, and a 22.1% growth in energy prices.

 

Month-on-month, export prices decreased 0.3% in November, reversing the previous month's 0.1% increase.

 

At the same time, the import price inflation slowed to 8.8% in October from 9.8% in the previous month. From October, import prices rose 0.2% during the month, recovering from the previous month's 0.1% decrease.

 

PORTUGAL

 

Lisbon's PSI General concluded the week Friday at 2,211.03, up 1.66%.

 

Portugal has paid a markedly lower interest rate to borrow €1 billion ($1.3 billion) amid a government austerity program aimed at winning back market confidence.

 

Portugal's government debt agency said it sold 3-month Treasury bills at a rate of 4.346%, down from 4.873% in a similar auction last month. It was the lowest rate in eight months on those bills.

 

The agency said there was demand for more than double the amount on offer in Wednesday's auction.

 

Portugal is one of the Eurozone's frailest members and is stuck in recession. It needed a €78 billion bailout in May last year as investors turned their backs on the ailing country.

 

The government is enacting a tough program of tax hikes and pay and welfare cuts to restore fiscal health.

 

Property for sale in Portugal has seen a fall in demand, prices and supply, the November Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics)/Ci Portuguese Housing Market Survey (PHMS) has revealed.

 

The survey showed that November experienced the fastest decline in sales activity since the report began in September 2010.

 

In particular, the survey notes that new property in Portugal is undergoing a change, with prices falling more rapidly than they were prior to September.

 

During November, prices for new homes dropped faster than those for existing domiciles.

 

This trend was previously seen in October's PHMS, which suggested that demand for lettings would increase due to consumers' lack of mortgage finance.

 

Investors planning to purchase Lisboa property or residential buildings elsewhere in Portugal may therefore have the opportunity to take advantage of these market developments.

 

Portugal's solar market remains one of the hottest for investors able to build systems under that country's installations cap, according to Lux Research's latest Solar Demand Forecaster. The country's internal rates of returns (IRR) for the six major solar technologies remain high in 2011 along with Cyprus and Greece, though the financial crisis in Europe could significantly hinder that market.

 

"Uncertainty surrounding Europe's financial situation and its countries' ability to pay out incentives will prevent wild growth - keeping that market relatively constant," said Matt Feinstein, the Lux Research Analyst who led the Demand Forecast. "However, a number of Asian markets have high returns going into 2012 - notably Malaysia at 24.1%, the Philippines at 22.6%, and Japan at 20.9%. They will push demand toward that region in 2012 and 2013."

 

IRR is the discount rate at which the net present value (NPV) of future cash flows from a capital investment equals zero. Capital expenditure is the primary factor in determining a market's IRR, along with incentives and operating expenses. Put simply, it provides an apples-to-apples metric for investors to compare demand and project growth for solar across disparate markets. Top 5 Locations by IRR (1Q12)

 

1. Portugal

 

2. Cyprus

 

3. Hawaii

 

4. Greece

 

5. Israel

 

ITALY

 

The FTSE Mibtel in Milan closed the week on 14,645.60, down 0.82%.

 

Italy's annual inflation, measured under the EU methodology, remained unchanged in December, preliminary data released by statistical office Istat showed Wednesday.

 

The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) increased 3.7% on an annual basis in December, unchanged from the previous month. Economists expected prices to rise 3.5%.

 

Month-on-month, the HICP moved up 0.3% in December, faster than the 0.2% growth economists forecast.

 

At the same time, the consumer price inflation remained unchanged at 3.3% in December, while economists expected inflation to ease to 3.2%. From November, consumer prices rose at a faster rate of 0.4% in December than the 0.3% growth economists forecast.

 

Activity in Italy's services sector fell more than economists expected in December, data from a survey by Markit Economics and ADACI showed Wednesday.

 

The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the services sector dropped to 44.5 in December from 45.8 in November, marking the seventh consecutive decline. Economists expected a reading of 45.3. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector, while one above suggests growth.

 

New orders received by Italian service providers decreased at the fastest pace since April 2009. Reflecting the sharp fall in orders, production dropped at a faster rate.

 

Input price inflation accelerated to a series-record high during the month, after easing in the previous month. Meanwhile, output prices decreased. Service providers reduced employment further, and the rate of job-cut was the sharpest since July 2009.

 

The Italian purchasing managers' index, that measures the health of the country's manufacturing sector, increased unexpectedly in December, the latest survey result from Markit Economics showed Monday.

 

However, the PMI reading of 44.3 for December still remained well below the no-change mark of 50, suggesting a marked contraction in activity in the sector. Manufacturing activity declined throughout the past five survey periods.

 

In November, the PMI scored 44 and the economists were expecting the reading to fall to 43.8 in December.

 

New orders received by Italian factory sector fell for a seventh month in a row. New export orders also dropped markedly since the previous survey period. Firms continued to shed jobs but at the weakest rate for three months.

 

GREECE

 

In Athens, the Athex Composite ended both the session and the week Thursday (closed for a holiday Friday) on 647.58, down 2.22%.

 

French bank Crédit Agricole said Wednesday it had pumped a further €2 billion ($2.61 billion) into its ailing Emporiki Bank of Greece unit to support it against the country's continuing economic woes.

 

Crédit Agricole said the capital increase won't hurt it financially as it involves converting an advance made previously to the Greek bank. "This capital increase has no impact on the solvency ratio of the Crédit Agricole group. This is an internal operation, which consists in converting shareholders' advances and which started back in 2010," a Crédit Agricole spokeswoman said.

 

Emporiki has been a drain on Crédit Agricole's finances since it took control of the bank in 2006 as part of an international expansion plan. It has weighed particularly hard on the French parent's earnings since the Euro-zone sovereign-debt crisis deepened last summer.

 

The Greek bank plunged into the red during the financial crisis and Crédit Agricole said in July that its aim to turn a profit in 2012 was in doubt. Crédit Agricole injected €1 billion worth of capital into Emporiki in late 2009.

 

Greek banks are reeling from a slumping economy, rising bad loans, a steady outflow of deposits and face huge losses from a planned debt write-down the government is negotiating with its private-sector creditors.

 

The Greek government is expected to conclude talks with those creditors by the end of this month with a deal aimed at slashing by half the €206 billion it owes them. The write-down is an integral part of a new €130 billion bailout promised to Greece in October by its European partners and the International Monetary Fund.

 

Emporiki posted a €954 million loss in the first nine months of 2011, hit by a slowdown in activity, rising financing costs and the need to set aside more provisions against bad loans.

 

Crédit Agricole, which has been struggling due to its heavy exposure to Greece, launched a restructuring plan that will see it cut 2,350 jobs globally, including 850 in France, retreat from 21 out of the 53 countries where it operates, while discontinuing its equity derivatives and commodities activities.

 

The bank's total exposure to Greece stood at €2.7 billion at Sept. 30 while the value of Greek sovereign debt held on its banking book was €150 million at the end of October.

 

"The approximately €2 billion capital increase will further fortify Emporiki's competitive position in the domestic market," Emporiki said in a statement, adding that the move reaffirmed the parent bank's support for the Greek unit.

 

Greece may be forced out of Euro if Eurozone leaders failed to agree on the second bailout package in three months, reports said citing a television interview of a Greek government spokesperson.

 

"The second bailout agreement must be signed otherwise we are out of the markets, out of the Euro," reports quoted spokesman Pantelis Kapsis as saying in an interview to television channel Skai.

 

European leaders have proposed a second loan package worth Eur 130 billion to Greece as the first Eur 110 billion bailout proved insufficient to stabilize its public finances. Greece's debt inspectors, the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and the European Central Bank, are expected to visit Athens in mid-January to assess the progress of the fiscal program and to decide whether to provide further financial aid to the Euro member.

 

In his new year message on Sunday, Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said the country must continue its efforts with decisiveness, to stay in the Euro. He also said that the next three months will be especially crucial.

 

Activity in the Greek manufacturing sector decreased at a slower pace in December, data from a survey by Markit Economics showed Monday.

 

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector rose to a three-month high of 42 in December from 40.9 in November. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector, while one above suggests growth.

 

New orders received by manufacturers decreased sharply, while backlogs of work fell substantially during the month. Reflecting the fall in new orders, firms reduced their workforces for the forty-fourth consecutive month in December.

 

Input price inflation remained heightened during the month, as prices of imports, energy and fuel all increased. Meanwhile, output prices dropped for the tenth successive month, as manufacturers found it difficult to pass on their increased cost burdens to clients.

The UK Market 
Did it follow the Global trend .....
 UK MarketsMan Group led the blue-chip fallers on Friday after brokers once again cut earnings forecasts.

 

The hedge fund manager dropped 8.4% to 112¾p, the lowest since December 2000, after JPMorgan Cazenove, Credit Suisse and RBC downgraded figures.

 

All three brokers forecasted an outflow of funds under management for Man in the fourth quarter due to the continued weak performance of AHL Diversified, its benchmark fund.

 

The outlook for AHL earning performance fees next year "looks bleak", JPMorgan said. The fund, which is estimated to provide around three-quarters of Man's earnings, is currently about 10% below its high water mark.

 

RBC forecast the company to report $2.3bn of outflows in the three months ended in December. That follows $2.7bn of outflows in the previous quarter.

 

"In the absence of strong AHL performance and the cessation of outflows, we now fail to see positive catalysts in the near-term," said RBC, which downgraded the stock to "sector perform" from "outperform".

 

Man is due to report 2011 earnings on January 18.

 

Credit Suisse was also negative on the rest of the money managers, downgrading Ashmore , down 2.9% to 321¼p, and F&C Asset Management , off 2.1% to 60¾p, to "neutral" and "underperform respectively.

 

The wider market rallied for the first day in three after a US jobs report helped bolster risk appetite. The FTSE 100 rose 25.42 points, or 0.5%, to close at 5,649.68, giving it a weekly gain of 1.4%.

 

Burberry led the risers, up 3.9% to £12.50, before a trading update on January 17. The shares were helped by comments from China's commerce minister, who said the government was looking at ways of promoting online shopping and tourism in order to boost consumption.

 

Citigroup forecast Burberry to report 20% sales growth for the quarter as buoyant Chinese demand helped damp a deceleration in retail sales momentum.

 

Vodafone rose 1.2% to 179½p after Goldman Sachs rekindled speculation that it could merge with Verizon Communications, its US joint venture partner.

 

If Verizon sold its fixed line operations, the remaining business "would have faster growth and a clear fit with Vodafone's assets and strategy, making it a more attractive merger partner," Goldman told clients.

 

The broker also added Vodafone to its "buy" list, largely on the basis of its dividend yield. An expected 17% increase in the pay-out pointed towards a potential total return for the stock of 55% over the next two years, analyst Tom Boddy argued.

 

Broadcaster ITV was up 2.7% to 71¼p on the back of an upgrade from Morgan Stanley.

 

As well as a low valuation and strong balance sheet, ITV offered further scope for cost cutting with another scheme to save between £20m and £25m likely to be announced in February, it said.

 

The broker was more cautious on BSkyB , which slipped by 1.3% to 711½p. It cited the tough UK economy and the looming auction of English Premier League rights, as well as regulatory pressure on exclusive film deals.

 

Icap lost 3% to 319¼p after reporting another sharp fall in trading volumes.

 

The inter-dealer broker said electronic volumes were down 20% month-on-month in December, which analysts said made guidance for its year ending March look a stretch. Icap said in November that it would report a profit of between £358m and £390m for the year depending on a rebound of activity in the final quarter.

 

UBS repeated its "sell" advice. "We estimate that Icap needs at least 10% year-on-year growth in voice and electronic fourth-quarter revenues in order to achieve the bottom end of consensus," it said. "This is a tall order."

 

Among the mid-caps, Mitchells & Butlers jumped 8.7% to 249¾p. Morgan Stanley upgradedthe pubs operator to "overweight", based on hopes of a boost to trading from the London Olympics and the Queen's diamond jubilee.

 

Salamander Energy , a recent feature on vague bid speculation, gained 5.5% to 227½p after Macquarie raised its price target to 305p. The Australian broker was also positive on Premier Oil , up 4.7% to 392½p.

 

Emerging markets money lender International Personal Finance dropped a further 7% to 160p following its decision on Thursday to hedge 70% of its overseas profit against currency fluctuations. Citigroup, downgrading IPF to "neutral", said the hedge crystallised a 17% hit to earnings.

 

The number of mortgages approved in November totaled 52,854, up from 52,786 a month ago, the Bank of England said Wednesday. The expected figure for November was 52,800.

 

Total lending to individuals rose by GBP 1 billion in November, in line with the previous six-month average. The annual growth rate was unchanged at 0.9%.

 

Within total lending, lending secured on dwellings climbed GBP 0.6 billion, less than the GBP 0.9 billion expected by economists. At the same time, consumer credit increased GBP 0.4 billion in November, bigger than the GBP 0.2 billion forecast by economists.

 

UK broad money aggregate M4 declined at a slightly slower pace in November, data from Bank of England showed Wednesday.

 

M4, which is a measure of the quantity of UK money supply, dropped a seasonally adjusted 2.6% annually, after declining 2.7% in the previous month.

 

Money supply fell for the fourteenth month in a row. On a monthly basis, M4 money supply decreased 0.6%, after a 0.3% fall in October.

Asia Pacific Regional Markets 
Did they set the tone or follow the lead .....
Asiapac IndicesJAPAN
 Japanese stocks declined, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average falling for the week, as pessimism on the European debt crisis overshadowed data showing strength in the US economy.

 

Sony, which depends on Europe for a fifth of its sales, slid 2% after the Euro fell to an 11-year low against the Yen. Mitsubishi, Japan's biggest commodities trader by sales, lost 1.3% after oil and metal prices declined. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha led drops among shipping lines after cargo rates fell the most since October 2008.

 

The Nikkei 225 slipped 1.2% to 8,390.35 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo. For the week, the gauge slid 0.8% as France's borrowing costs rose, refocusing attention on Europe's debt burden. The broader Topix fell 0.9% to 729.60 Friday, ending the week up slightly.

 

Exporters to Europe declined. Sony fell 2% to 1,345 Yen. Nippon Sheet Glass, a glassmaker that generates about 40% of its sales in Europe, lost 2.8% to 140 Yen.

 

Mitsubishi fell 1.3% to 1,546 Yen. Mitsui & Co., a trading house that counts commodities as its biggest source of profit, dropped 1% to 1,199 Yen.

 

Shipping lines declined the most among the 33 Topix industry groups after the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, Thursday plunged 8.1% to its lowest since Aug. 18.

 

Nippon Yusen K.K., the country's biggest shipping company by sales, lost 3% to 192 Yen. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. slid 4.7% to 282 Yen, while Kawasaki Kisen sank 5% to 133 Yen.

 

Japanese stocks plunged last year amid a surge in the Yen, natural disasters and nuclear meltdowns at Tokyo Electric Power's Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant. The Topix dropped 19% in 2011, eclipsing an 11% decline on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, ground zero for the debt crisis.

 

The following were among the most active shares in the Japanese market Friday. Stock symbols are in parentheses after company names.

 

Engineering companies: Japan Bridge and other builders gained after Daiwa Securities Group said possible highway repairs in the Tokyo area may contribute to earnings. Japan Bridge surged 19% to 380 Yen. P.S. Mitsubishi Construction soared 16% to 335 Yen, while Miyaji Engineering Group jumped 9% to 193 Yen.

 

Chip-related firms: Elpida Memory, Renesas Electronics and other companies in the industry declined. Nomura Holdings cut its growth forecast for global shipments of dynamic random access memory to 2.7% from 3.7% after prices of the chips used to help computers juggle programs plunged.

 

Elpida, which also fell after Deutsche Bank cut its stock price estimate to 400 Yen from 500 Yen, sank 5.4% to 331 Yen. Renesas lost 3% to 455 Yen. Advantest, which makes chip testers, slid 3.3% to 706 Yen.

 

Gulliver International, a used-car retailer, retreated 6% to 2,923 Yen, its lowest since June 17. The company said net income fell 30% to 3.62 billion Yen in the nine months ended Nov. 30, citing changes in accounting and disaster-related losses.

 

JFE Holdings, Japan's second-largest steelmaker, dropped 2.5% to 1,352 Yen. A fire broke out at one of the company's facilities near Tokyo, Kyodo News reported.

 

JVC Kenwood, a home-electronics maker, rallied 9.2% to 286 Yen after its largest shareholder, Panasonic, said it planned to sell most of its JVC stake. Panasonic fell 0.3% to 654 Yen.

 

Mitsui Chemicals fell 4.2% to 229 Yen. JPMorgan Chase cut its investment rating on the company to "neutral" from "overweight," citing the Yen's appreciation and a possible slump in demand for semiconductors and factory automation equipment. Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings slid 3% to 423 Yen.

 

Mitsui Mining & Smelting declined 4% to 194 Yen after Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities cut its rating to "neutral" from "outperform," citing slumping demand for metals used for electronics.

 

Tokyo Tatemono climbed 3.7% to 251 Yen after Credit Suisse Group raised its target price to 330 Yen from 320 Yen, maintaining its "outperform" rating. The developer will probably return to profit in the year ending December and resume dividend payments, Credit Suisse said in a report Thursday.

 

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda says he has set social security and tax reforms as top priorities on his 2012 legislative agenda.

 

Noda pledged at his traditional New Year's press conference on Wednesday to double the sales tax rate in two stages to ten% by 2015.

 

A draft plan for the social security and tax reforms will be finalized on Friday, he said and offered to hold dialogue with the Opposition bloc on tax hike early next week in order to overcome widespread opposition from lawmakers.

 

But Opposition leader Sadakazu Tanigaki showed no signs of compromise as he said he would step up his offensive against Noda's four-month-old government.

 

Noda took office in September replacing Naoto Kan, who was forced to quit over his handling of the nuclear crisis and reconstruction efforts. In his first policy address, Noda had promised a strategy to revive Japan's economy by the end of the year and boost recovery efforts in the aftermath of the twin tragedy and the unfolding global financial market crisis.

 

The Japanese Parliament had passed three supplementary quake-relief budgets since May.

 

The government in December approved a fourth extra budget for the fiscal year through March to help finance relief programs for those suffering from last year's twin disaster and to finance support measures for carmakers and farmers.

 

The government had said it would secure funding for the extra budget, worth 2.53 trillion Yen ($32.48 billion), through cost cutting, tax revenues and other methods.

 

SOUTH KOREA

 

South Korean stocks dropped 1.11% Friday on renewed Eurozone concerns that shrugged off optimism about economic recovery, analysts said. The local currency declined sharply against the US currency.

 

The benchmark KOSPI fell 20.6 points to 1,843.14. Trading volume was heavy at 466.6 million shares worth 4.36 trillion won ($3.75 billion) with losers outnumbering gainers 551 to 264.

 

Foreign investors and institutions went on a selling spree, offloading a net 46.5 billion won and 72.8 billion won worth of shares, respectively.

 

The loss was broad-based, led by techs, steelmakers and carmakers.

 

World's largest memory chipmaker Samsung Electronics slipped 1.42% to 1,040,000 won despite a record operating profit estimate for the fourth quarter of last year. Another local tech giant LG Electronics sank 2.03% to close at 72,400 won.

 

Top steelmaker POSCO slid 1.66% to 385,500 won and Hyundai Steel fell 2.23% to 96,600 won.

 

Automakers were also bearish, with market leader Hyundai Motor losing 1.79% to 219,500 won and its smaller affiliate Kia Motors dropping 2.19% to finish at 66,900 won.

 

The local currency closed at 1,162.9 won to the greenback, down 10.2 won from Thursday's close, as investors dumped riskier assets, dealers said.

 

South Korea is closely monitoring crude imports from Iran and will look for alternative suppliers following the US government's sanctions on the Middle Eastern nation.

 

The government is concerned about surges in global and local crude prices as Iran is South Korea's fifth-biggest supplier of the fuel, according to a joint statement from finance ministry and other ministries.

 

HONG KONG

 

Fresh worries over Europe's debt problems sent Hong Kong's benchmark index down Friday, tracking the performance in regional markets, ending another week of low market volumes as many investors remain cautious due to global developments.

 

The blue-chip Hang Seng Index fell 220.35 points, or 1.2%, to 18,593.06 after trading between 18,506.58 and 18,784.86 during the session. Market volume totaled HK$43.78 billion, up from HK$37.09 billion Thursday, but still significantly lower than daily volumes of more than HK$50 billion in previous weeks. For this week, the index rose 0.9%.

 

Analysts attributed the lackluster investment sentiment on Friday to the overnight declines in European bank stocks amid fears over the ability of financial institutions there to raise capital, as well as to the weaker Euro, which hit a fresh 15-month low on Friday.

 

In Hong Kong, the China Enterprises Index, which tracks the movement of Chinese incorporated companies listed in the city, closed down 1.5% at 9,987.33.

 

While the valuations of Chinese equities are low, DBS Vickers said the discounts aren't low enough to drive the market higher in the near term. "We see downside risks stemming from high volatility arising from the European debt crisis dominating," the brokerage said Friday.

 

Bucking the trend Friday, shares in three of China's biggest oil producers rose, though off intraday highs, after China announced windfall tax reforms that will help offset a recently introduced higher national resource tax. Offshore oil producer Cnooc rose 3.0% to HK$15.08, PetroChina was up 2.3% at HK$10.62, and Sinopec was up 1.9% at HK$8.81.

 

Hong Kong's retail sales increased at a faster pace in November, and surpassed economists' forecast, data released by the Census and Statistics Department showed Tuesday.

 

Retail sales volume increased 16.9% year-on-year in November, faster than the 15% growth seen in October. Economists expected sales to rise 14%.

 

Retail sales of fuel products rose 3.7% annually, while sales of clothing, footwear and allied products grew 14.7%. There was a 36.4% annual growth in sales of consumer durables during the month. Meanwhile, retail sales of food, beverages and tobacco decreased 7.7% year-on-year in November.

 

In value terms, retail sales advanced 23.5% on an annual basis in November, following the previous month's 23% growth. Economists were looking for a 25% growth.

 

In the January-November period, retail sales volume advanced 18.6% from the corresponding period a year earlier. In value terms, sales climbed 25% year-on-year.

 

CHINA

 

China's stocks rose for the first time this year on speculation the central bank will cut banks' reserve-requirement ratios as early as Friday to boost lending to small companies hurt by a cash crunch.

 

China Construction Bank and China Citic Bank advanced more than 1% after the government said it will suspend its bill sales before this month's Lunar New Year holiday. Tsinghua Tongfang, a computer maker, jumped 6.1%, helping technology companies to pare the second-biggest weekly losses among 10 industry groups.

 

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China's stock exchanges, added 0.7% to 2,163.40 as of the close, erasing a drop of as much as 0.7%. The measure lost 1.6% this holiday-shortened week, the longest losing streak since the week ended June 25, 2004. The CSI 300 Index gained 0.6% to 2,290.60 Friday.

 

The Shanghai Composite trades at 8.8 times estimated earnings, a record low according to data dating back to 2006, after plunging 22% last year on concern increases in borrowing costs and Europe's debt crisis will derail economic growth. The CSI 300 slid 25% in 2011.

 

Small-company stocks plunged this week because of investor disappointment that lenders' reserve-requirement ratios haven't been cut amid signs of a cash crunch as households prepare for Lunar celebrations that start Jan. 23. The Shenzhen Composite Index slumped 5.6% since the start of the new year. The ChiNext index of start-up companies fell 8.2% this week.

 

The central bank said Friday it will suspend its bill sales ahead of the Chinese new year holiday and will conduct reverse repo operations based on actual demand.

 

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the nation's biggest bank, rose 0.7% to 4.28 RMB. China Construction Bank, the second-biggest lender, increased 1.5% to 4.65 RMB and China Citic Bank added 1.2% to 4.15 RMB.

 

The People's Bank of China is injecting the most funds in eight weeks into the financial system. The central bank added a net 51 billion RMB ($8.1 billion) to the banking system this week as bill redemptions exceeded issuance, and canceled a second straight auction of three-month notes Thursday.

 

China's non-manufacturing sector rebounded strongly in December, adding to evidence that the debt turmoil is having only a limited impact on Asia's largest economy.

 

Survey results from China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) showed Tuesday that the headline business activity index bounced back to the expansive territory, rising to 56 in December from 49.7 in November.

 

An index reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction.

 

The new orders index also rebounded to 50.5 from 47.2 in the previous month. However, new export orders continued to shrink, albeit at a slower pace, suggesting that the Euro crisis is dampening external demand. The relevant index scored 46.4, up slightly from November's 45.6.

 

Nonetheless, the latest rebound in overall business activity in the service sector was led by strong seasonal demand for retail-based consumer services. Relatively active logistics industry also contributed positively to the index.

 

The price charged by service providers declined during the month, but at a weaker pace compared to November. The corresponding index rose to 49.3 from 48.5 in the previous month.

 

The official purchasing managers' survey for the country's manufacturing industry indicated a moderate rebound in activity during December, easing concerns of a slowdown in the economy.

 

TAIWAN

 

Taiwan share prices fell Friday, stopping a three-day winning streak on mild profit-taking, but the index still managed to close above 7,100 points with investors taking advantage of low valuations to recoup some of the early losses, dealers said.

 

The narrow fluctuation range showed cautious sentiment toward the debt situation in Europe after Italy and France encountered rising borrowing costs, while the possibility that Hungary will seek a financial bailout also worried the market, they said.

 

The weighted index closed down 10.35 points or 0.14% at 7,120.51, after moving between 7,090.47 and 7,139.04, on turnover of NT$87.40 billion (US$2.89 billion).

 

The market opened down 0.18% on lackluster Wall Street performance overnight, and moved below Thursday's closing level for most of the session after investors took their cues from losses posted by other regional bourses such as Hong Kong and Tokyo, amid the European debt crisis fears, the dealers said.

 

Despite the downward pressure on the broader market, select firms in Apple's supply chain attracted buying after they reported strong sales growth for December, which lent some support to the broader market, they said.

 

After reporting better-than-expected December sales, Catcher Technology, an Apple casing supplier, rose 7%, the maximum daily increase, to close at NT$156.50 with 31.13 million shares changing hands, while cellphone camera lens maker Largan Precision ended up 2.73% at NT$603.00.

 

The financial and textile sectors suffered the steepest declines among the eight major stock categories, finishing down 1.5%. Cathay Financial closed down 1.82% at NT$32.30, Chinatrust Financial was down 3.32% at NT$18.95 and textile maker Far Eastern New Century was 2.11% lower at NT$34.85.

 

Cement stocks lost 1.2%, plastics and chemicals fell 1.0%, and paper and pulp shares dropped 0.4%, while the machinery and electronics sector closed unchanged.

 

However, foodstuffs rose 0.5% and construction shares closed up 0.2%.

 

Taiwanese manufacturing activity declined in December, but at a much slower pace compared to the previous month, the latest survey results from Markit Economics showed Monday.

 

The HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers' index posted 47.1 in December, up from 43.9 in November. However, a PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction of the sector.

 

New business received by companies in Taiwan fell for the seventh month running in December. But the rate of contraction eased to the weakest since June. New work intakes from export markets also decreased.

 

A concurrent slower decline in output was recorded in December. Input costs and output prices both decreased during the month, Markit said.

 

THE PHILIPPINES

 

Philippine shares retreated Friday, dropping by 35.55 points or 0.78 to close at 4,483.36 to snap a five-day rally.

 

More than 2.981 billion shares valued at P5.01 billion were traded.

 

Decliners also trounced gainers 99 to 67 and 32 stocks were unchanged.

 

Only mining and oil defied the downtrend, which added 189.58 points or 0.77% to its portfolio.

 

IPVG: The company's board approved the sale of as many as 400 million shares at 1 Peso each to a trust account managed by BDO Private Bank, a stock exchange filing showed. The exchange suspended the stock's trading until 10 a.m. Friday, a filing showed. The stock increased 0.7% to 1.38 Pesos.

 

SM Investments: SM Land, a unit of the company, submitted a revised offer to develop a 33.1 hectare (82 acre) military site in Bonifacio that the government is evaluating, BusinessWorld reported, citing Arnel Casanova, president at Bases Conversion Development Authority, the state agency in charge with the asset's privatization. The stock declined 2% to 570.50 Pesos.

 

The Philippines said it raised $1.5 billion through a new 25-year global bond that was issued at a record-low yield for one of Asia's most active sovereign borrowers months after credit-rating firms gave the country a boost with an upgrade and change in ratings outlook.

 

The bond, due January 2037, carries a 5% coupon and was offered at par-a 1.962-percentage-point spread over benchmark US Treasurys--in a bookbuilding process that took just 15 hours to complete.

 

SINGAPORE

 

Share prices in Singapore ended steady after staging a late rebound, helped by positive starts in European markets.

 

Dealers said sentiment was also aided by increased optimism over the US economic recovery and China's ability to avert a hard landing.

 

The Straits Times Index dropped as much as 0.5% during the day, before recovering to close up 0.1%, or 2.57 points, at 2,715.59 - above the technically significant level of 2,700 points.

 

On the broader market, rising issues outpaced losers 158 to 135.

 

Volume was a thin 627 million shares ahead of key US nonfarm payrolls report due out later Friday.

 

Among active counters, Noble Group lost 1.5 cents to S$1.13, Genting Singapore added 3.5 cents to S$1.565, while SingTel finished unchanged at S$3.14.

 

DBS Group gained 6 cents to S$11.86, unaffected by news that it was investigating a spate of unauthorised fund withdrawals in Malaysia.

 

Cosco Corp rose 1 cent to 92.5 cents after its Cosco (Nantong) Shipyard unit won a US$220 million contract to build two vessels.

 

Elsewhere, Golden Agri-Resources held steady at 74 cents, and NOL fell 3 cents to S$1.17.

 

Singapore may enter a period of slower growth for at least two years, Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said Tuesday, according to Channel NewsAsia.

 

"It may not be a slowdown for just one year. My sense is that this is going to be an environment of slow growth for some time, for at least two years I would say we'll see sub-par growth," Channel NewsAsia quoted Tharman as saying.

 

Tharman, who is also the Deputy Prime Minister, said the government will focus on preparing for the upgrading of the economy.

 

Singapore's economy contracted 4.9% sequentially in the fourth quarter, after growing 1.5% in the third quarter, according to the advance estimates released by the government.

 

In his new year message, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that the economy has achieved a steady growth rate of 4.8% in 2011. However, he warned that the small and open economy of Singapore will inevitably be affected by external uncertainties and debt problems in Europe.

 

MALAYSIA

 

Bursa Malaysia ended the first trading week of 2012 weaker in line with its regional peers as sentiment continued to be influenced by the uncertainty looming over the Euro zone debt problem, dealers said.

 

At 5pm, the key FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI ended the day three points lower at 1,514.13, after fluctuating between 1,508.93 and 1,515.27 throughout the day.

 

Head (Retail Research) Affin Investment Bank Dr Nazri Khan said since the year began, the unresolved Euro zone debt crisis loomed over the heads of many investors globally.

 

However, the market was looking forward to the release of US employment data later tonight which could indicate the economic outlook for next week, he said.

 

Losses in palm oil-related and plantation stocks, led by Kuala Lumpur Kepong, Sarawak Oil Palms and Tradewinds Plantation, dragged the benchmark index lower.

 

The Finance Index fell 3.81 points to 13,387.71, the Plantation Index declined 46.78 points to 8,436.93 and the Industrial Index slipped 7.51 points to 2,756.85.

 

The FBM Emas Index lost 0.04 of a point to 10,416.81, the FBM Mid 70 Index dropped 28.89 points to 11,583.03 but the FBM Ace Index added 20.12 points to 4,129.92.

 

Losers outnumbered gainers 391 to 377 while 299 counters were unchanged and 422 others were untraded.

 

Volume decreased to 1.466 billion shares, worth RM1.389 billion, from 1.668 billion shares, worth RM1.462 billion, recorded Thursday.

 

Among active stocks, Nextnation added three sen to 11.5 sen, Hibiscus Petroleum-WA and Xidelang, eased one sen each to 63 sen and 40 sen, respectively, while Unisem-WA gained 10 sen to 37 sen.

 

As for heavyweights, Maybank erased six sen to RM8.23, Sime Darby shed one sen to RM9.06, Petronas Chemicals lost five sen to RM6.33 while CIMB added two sen to RM7.18.

 

Volume on the main market dwindled to 983.203 million shares, worth RM1.315 billion, from 1.055 billion shares, valued at RM1.325 billion, transacted Thursday.

 

Turnover on the ACE Market increased to 218.403 million units, valued at RM25.389 million, from Thursday's 159.169 million units worth RM22.470 million.

 

Warrants decreased to 263.071 million shares worth RM47.382 million, from 452.835 million shares, valued at RM114.096 million, registered on Thursday.

 

With many of Malaysia's economic sectors having performed solidly over the past 12 months, the country is poised for another strong performance this year, says Oxford Business Group (OBG), a global publishing and consultancy company.

 

Though final figures have yet to be issued, OBG said it was expected that the Malaysian economy would have expanded by more than five% in 2011.

 

OBG said Malaysia's foreign direct investments (FDIs) had gone up while inflation was well contained and the financial sector remained steady.

 

However, it cautioned that there could be some impact from the European debt crisis, with demand for exports widely predicted to ease this year.

 

OBG said Malaysia, after having successfully ridden out the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, its economy appeared to be well placed to continue its progress into 2012 and beyond.

 

At the end of November, the Organisation for Economic and Cooperative Development (OECD) forecast that this solid rate of growth would continue for at least the next five years, predicting that Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) would expand by 5.3% in each of the next few years and hit 5.6% by 2016.

 

THAILAND

 

The Stock Exchange of Thailand main index went down 0.54 points or 0.05% to close at 1,036.26 points at the end of trading session on Friday afternoon. The trade value was 19.26 billion Baht, with 2.74 billion shares traded.

 

The SET50 index ended at 725.69 points, down 1.43 points or 0.20%, with a total trade value of 13.08 billion Baht.

 

The SET100 index fell 1.96 points or 0.12% to stand at 1,577.56 points, with a total turnover of 15.90 billion Baht.

 

The SETHD index went down 4.73 points, or 0.46% to 1,018.85 points with a total trade value of 4.72 billion Baht.

 

The MAI index went down 0.03 points or 0.01% to close at 268.21 points, with total transaction value of 891.03 billion Baht.

 

Thailand's annual inflation eased more than expected in December, data from the Commerce Ministry showed Wednesday.

 

Consumer price inflation in December was 3.5%, compared to 4.2% a month ago. The inflation figure remained below the 4% consensus forecast. Month-on-month, consumer prices dropped 0.48%.

 

Core inflation that excludes food and energy also slowed in December to 2.7% annually from 2.9% in the previous month. The core rate came in slightly weaker than the expected 2.75%.

 

To support the economy that has been hit hard by the recent severe floods, the central bank lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% in November.

 

INDONESIA

 

The Jakarta Composite index slid 0.9% to 3,869.42, falling for a second day. The gauge added 1.2% this week.

 

Coal producers: Bumi Resources, Asia's biggest thermal-coal exporter, fell 1.1% to 2,325 Rupiah, the first decline in seven days. Indo Tambangraya Megah, a unit of Thailand's largest coal miner, Banpu dropped 1.9% to 39,100 Rupiah.

 

BW Plantation, a palm-oil producer, rose 0.8% to 1,200 Rupiah. Kontan reported the company plans to spend 700 billion rupiah ($77 million) this year to add 10,000 hectares of plantation land and build a factory with a capacity of 60 tons an hour.

 

Unilever Indonesi, the nation's biggest detergent maker, retreated 4.2% to 19,200 Rupiah, the sharpest drop since 22 September. Recent gains were deemed excessive, Nico Omer Jonckheere, vice president for research and analysis at PT Valbury Asia Securities, said by telephone. Unilever rose 8.4% in the past two days.

 

Inflation in Indonesia eased to 3.79% in December from 4.15% in November, reports said Monday citing data from Statistics Indonesia.

 

Economists had forecast the rate to slow to 3.86%. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose 0.57%, faster than 0.34% in November.

 

Core inflation slowed to 4.34% in December on a year-on-year basis from 4.44% in the previous month.

 

Last month, Bank Indonesia left its key rate unchanged at 6.00% after lowering it by 25 basis points in November. The bank aims to bring inflation to 3.5-5.5% in 2012.

 

INDIA

 

Indian shares ended flat in choppy trading Friday, as gains in Reliance Industries were offset by losses in capital goods plays.

 

Declines in most Asian markets, weighed by fresh worries over the Euro-zone debt problem, kept local shares in the red for most part of the day.

 

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index rose 10.65 points, or 0.07%, to close at 15867.73. The index traded between 15664.91 and 16001.31 through the day.

 

On the National Stock Exchange, the 50-stock S&P CNX Nifty added 4.15 points, or 0.09%, to end at 4759.10.

 

Trading volume in the BSE's cash segment decreased to 17.92 billion rupees ($340 million) from Thursday's 18.36 billion rupees. Gainers edged past losers 1,435 to 1,297, while 115 stocks were unchanged.

 

Energy major Reliance Industries climbed 2.5% to 716.90 rupees. The scrip has lost more than 11% in the past one month.

 

Among other gainers, HDFC Bank rose 2.3% to 452.50 rupees and ICICI Bank was up 0.6% at 751.35 rupees.

 

The capital goods index declined 1.0%. Larsen & Toubro fell 0.8% to 1,078.60 rupees while Bharat Heavy Electricals was down 1.9% at 250.00 rupees.

 

Bharti Airtel slid 4.1% to 330.20 rupees as the telecom sector continues to be buffeted by regulatory headwinds and intense competition.

 

The Reserve Bank of India is set to reverse monetary policy tightening over growth concerns, central bank chief Duvvuri Subbarao told the BBC in an interview on Monday.

 

But he added that it was difficult to say when that will take place and in what shape it will roll out.

 

The RBI has raised key rates 13 times since March 2010 to curb stubbornly high inflation. But it maintained the rates at its December monetary policy meeting.

 

Although inflation still remained a risk, the central bank is aware that it should support growth now. The balance between growth and inflation will shift in 2012, he noted.

 

AUSTRALIA

 

Weaker Asian equity markets and ongoing nervousness over Europe's sovereign debt crisis overshadowed optimism about a US economic recovery, leaving Australia's share market under pressure before Friday's release of US non-farm payrolls data.

 

Insurers slumped after higher-than-expected damage estimates from a freak Christmas hailstorm in Melbourne and an earthquake last month in New Zealand.

 

Resources heavyweight BHP Billiton fell 1.6%, while National Australia Bank, Westpac and ANZ Bank fell 1.4%. Suncorp lost 3.2% and Insurance Australia Group declined 2.3%.

 

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed down 0.8% at a three-day low of 4108.5 after falling sharply in early afternoon trading. Traders blamed futures selling and a lack of investor participation for the steep intraday fall.

 

Friday's pullback was broad-based, with materials, financials and telcos underperforming.

 

Alumina closed down 1.8% after hitting a two-and-a-half year low of A$1.085 as investors braced for likely weak fourth-quarter results Monday from US joint-venture partner Alcoa.

 

Suncorp led declines in financials after reporting that natural hazard costs in the first half of the financial year are expected to exceed its expectations by A$120 million-A$180 million, potentially putting a significant dent in its profits for the period.

 

News Corp. rose 2.3%, leading a rise in the consumer discretionary sector, as recent economic data suggested the US economy was recovering more strongly than expected by economists. News Corp. owns Dow Jones Newswires.

 

Activity in the Australian manufacturing sector edged up in December, recovering from the previous month's decline, data from a survey by the Australian Industry Group (AIG) showed Tuesday.

 

The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector increased to 50.2 in December from 47.8 in November. A PMI Reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while one below suggests decline. The growth reflected expansions across miscellaneous manufacturers, basic metals, paper, printing and publishing, and transport equipment sub-sectors.

 

The contraction in new orders eased notably during the month. Production in Australian factories increased in December, after falling moderately in November.

 

Input price inflation accelerated in December, while output prices decreased at a weaker pace. Firms reduced their workforces at a slower rate during the month.

 

"Manufacturing 'mercifully' fell across the line into positive territory in December - on the back of a pick-up in production and new orders - in what was a better end to 2011 than might have been anticipated after such a tough year," AIG's chief executive said. "The result points to the resilience of Australian manufacturers against formidable headwinds."

 

Australia's commodity price index fell 1% in SDR terms on a monthly average basis in December, the Reserve Bank of Australia said Tuesday.

 

In Australian Dollar terms, the index fell 2.5%. The price of gold as well as the estimated export prices of coking coal and iron ore declined during the month.

 

Over the past year, the index rose 11% in SDR terms and 10% in Australian Dollar terms.

 

NEW ZEALAND

 

New Zealand shares fell Friday, in subdued holiday season trading, as fears Europe is struggling to contain its debt crisis weighed on equity markets.

 

Fletcher Building, Contact Energy and Telecom dropped.

 

The NZX 50 Index declined 30.69, or 0.9%, to 3253.431. Within the index, 27 stocks fell, eight rose and 15 were unchanged.

 

Turnover was $38.8 million.

 

Westpac fell 1.1% to $26.40 on the NZX

 

Australasian food maker Goodman Fielder dropped 6.9% to 54 cents, leading the index lower and pacing its ASX-listed shares which were down 4.7% to 40 Australian cents in afternoon trading.

 

The biggest companies on the NZX 50 fell Friday. Fletcher, the nation's biggest construction firm, declined 1.5% to $6.03.

 

Contact Energy, the biggest listed power company, dropped 1.1% to $5.24, and phone company Telecom fell 0.7% to $2.02.

 

Tower, the insurance company, climbed about 2% to $1.56. Brisbane-based rival Suncorp said Friday the 23 December earthquake in Christchurch may cost it as much as $26 million.

 

Guinness Peat Group, which owns 35% of Tower and is winding down its investment portfolio, fell 1.7% to 57 cents.

 

NZX, the stock exchange operator, was unchanged at $2.38 after releasing trading data for December showing the volume of share trading on the NZX surged 48% last month.

 

Investment Research Group was unchanged at 0.6 cent after the financial services company said it has sponsored an application for internet services provider MyKris Ltd to list on the NZAX.

 

The Malaysian-based internet service provider, which operates in Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong, has applied to the NZX to list and begin quotation of shares from noon on 10 January, IRG said in a statement Friday. IRG provided investment banking services to MyKris and the deal will see the company receive about $480,000 worth of shares, which will be issued to its current shareholders.

 

New Zealand government bonds may struggle to extend their rally this year after the nation's remoteness from Europe's debt woes helped drive yields to record lows in 2011.

 

The yield on 10-year government bonds was recently at 3.84%.

 

It reached an all-time low of 3.76% last month, rounding out a year in which the benchmark bond shed about 2 percentage points.

 

New Zealand has no government bonds coming due this year. By contrast, the Group of Seven largest nations plus Brazil, Russia, India and China will be looking to refinance $US7.6 trillion bonds in 2012, up from $7.4 trillion a year ago.

 

Insurers for Woolworths' New Zealand supermarkets copped a bill of $27.7 million from the September 2010 and February earthquakes in Christchurch, according to its local financial statements.

 

The Australian retailer's New Zealand supermarket operation booked the insurance recovery as revenue in the year ended June 26, 2011, it said in statements lodged with the Companies Office last month.

 

That made up almost half the $64.6 million in non-operating revenue in the period, while sales rose 3.5% to $5.37 billion.

 

Woolworths took a $14.8 million hit on the earthquake from costs not covered by its insurance cover, according to the parent company's annual report, published in September.

 

The local holding company, Woolworths New Zealand Group, reported net profit of $99.8 million in the year, down from $100.7 million a year earlier. The Australian parent had previously said New Zealand supermarket pre-tax earnings rose 5.1% to $244 million.

 

In November, the Reserve Bank estimated the Canterbury quakes will result in claims worth some $30 billion as local firms seek to recover costs from interrupted business, temporary accommodation, inflation and other adjustments.

 

Government officials have forecast the quakes caused more than $20 billion of damage to property in the region, though that predates the recent swarm of temblors since Christmas.

 

Woolworths, which completed a nationwide rebranding of its local chain to Countdown last year, has 158 stores in New Zealand. It is battling the three Foodstuffs cooperatives that operate the Four Square, New World and Pak'nSave chains.

 

Its annual revenue of $5.37 billion in the 2011 year compares to the combined revenue of $8.2 billion for the Auckland, Wellington and South Island Foodstuffs cooperatives.

 

In October, the Australian retailer said its New Zealand supermarkets boosted sales 3% to $1.42 billion in the 14 weeks ended 2 October.

 

That accounts for about 8.9% of sales in Woolworths' supermarket division and 7.7% of the entire group's A$14.6 billion in revenue.         

Global Commodities 
'Food for thought' or 'a Grain of truth' .....
 CommoditiesCommodity markets were roiled this week as the Dollar surged against the beleaguered Euro and oil prices spiked close to eight-month highs on simmering tensions over key crude producer Iran.

 

The European single currency tumbled to yet another 16-month Dollar low under $1.27 on Friday as upbeat US payrolls data contrasted sharply with dire economic numbers in the crisis-hit Eurozone, dealers said.

 

Oil slipped for a second day as speculation Europe is headed for a recession overshadowed concern that tensions with Iran may lead to a disruption in Middle East shipments.

 

Futures decreased 0.3% as the Euro dropped to the lowest level versus the Dollar since September 2010. Crude surged to the highest price in almost eight months this week after Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz and European ministers discussed an embargo on oil imports from the country.

 

Crude oil for February delivery fell 25 cents to $101.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since Dec. 30. The contract climbed 2.8% this week. Prices advanced 8.2% in 2011.

 

Brent oil for February settlement increased 32 cents, or 0.3%, to end the session at $113.06 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

 

A European Union embargo on Iranian oil will probably be phased in to protect countries with the greatest reliance on imports from the country, according to an EU official familiar with the talks. Foreign ministers are likely to agree to block Iranian oil imports at a meeting in Brussels on 30 January, and working groups are negotiating the details, said the official, who declined to be identified because the talks are private.

 

Japan plans to express its concerns about a possible embargo on Iranian oil to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner when he visits Tokyo next week, Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura said. Japan, which imports almost all of its energy supplies, is the world's second-biggest buyer of Iranian crude after China.

 

Oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 529,093 contracts. Volume totaled 580,873 contracts Thursday, 4% below the three-month average. Open interest was 1.4 million contracts, the highest level since 11 November.

 

Alcoa, one of the world's largest aluminium producers, is closing or suspending production at 12% of its worldwide capacity as it attempts to cut costs and respond to the fall in aluminium prices.

 

The move is a step in implementing the strategy announced in 2010 to improve the group's cost competitiveness by 2015, but also reflects the weakness in the aluminium market since the summer of last year.

 

Analysts have been cutting sharply their forecasts of fourth-quarter earnings, which Alcoa will publish on 9 January, opening the US corporate reporting season as usual.

 

Nine out of 12 analysts surveyed within the last four weeks forecast that Alcoa would report a loss for the fourth quarter, according to Bloomberg.

 

More than half the cuts it announced - roughly 7% of its global smelting capacity - are permanent closures at US plants that have already been "curtailed": put into temporary suspension.

 

Copper futures edged higher on Friday after a session of indecisive trading as investors weighed a better-than-expected unemployment report in the US against ongoing worries about Europe's financial system.

 

The most actively traded copper contract, for March delivery, rose 0.85 cent, or 0.3%, to settle at $3.435 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

 

Futures were nearly flat on the week, shedding a tenth of a cent this week, as worries about the chance of a Euro-zone financial crisis countered the boost from upbeat economic readings from the US and China.

 

Copper is sensitive to the economic outlook because of its widespread uses in everything from plumbing and wiring to cars and trucks. Prices have been under pressure for months on the chance that Europe's debt crisis could weaken the industrial economy.

 

Three-month aluminium firmed to $2,037 a tonne from $2,003. Three-month lead decreased to $1,959 a tonne from $2,007. Three-month tin rose to $19,650 a tonne from $18,900. Three-month zinc retreated to $1,829 a tonne from $1,857. Three-month nickel advanced to $18,610 a tonne from $18,360.

 

Gold on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange ended the week on a indecisive note with Eurozone anxiety continuing to cast a wide shadow over the commodity markets.

 

Gold futures for February delivery closed down $3.30, or 0.2%, at $1,616.80 an ounce. However, the yellow metal did still have a positive start to 2012 by advancing 3.2% on the week.

 

As for the other precious metals, Comex silver for March delivery closed down 61 cents at $28.683 an ounce. Trade ranged from $28.570 to $29.460.

 

Platinum futures for April delivery on the Nymex closed down $9.80 at $1,408.20 an ounce, while the March palladium contract ended at $614.00 an ounce, off $30.40.

 

In soft commodities, by Friday on LIFFE, London's futures exchange, cocoa for delivery in March dropped to £1,329 a tonne from £1,355 a week earlier. In New York on the NYBOT-ICE, cocoa for March slid to $2,021 a tonne from $2,076.

 

Coffee prices extended last week's losses, with Robusta striking the lowest point since November 2010 as the market was hit by the rallying Dollar. By Friday on LIFFE, Robusta for delivery in March slipped to $1,755 a tonne from $1,806 a week earlier.

 

By Friday on NYBOT-ICE, the price of unrefined sugar for delivery in March firmed to 23.36 US cents a pound from 23.22 cents a week earlier. On LIFFE, the price of a tonne of white sugar for March increased to £606.80 from £603.20. 

Global Currencies 
In for a Penny, in for a Pound .....
UK Markets
 The Euro slid below $1.27 against the Dollar after better-than-expected employment data from the US, in a move that analysts said could mark the start of a new trading pattern for the single currency.

 

The Euro lost 0.6% to dip to a low of $1.2696 in London trading after non-farm payrolls data for the US beat analyst forecasts, following a week that saw the single currency lose nearly 2% of its value.

 

Analysts said the move upwards in the Dollar after positive US economic data could be a sign that the greenback was starting to break free of a pattern whereby risk appetite led to a sell-off in the currency.

 

The Hungarian Forint continued to gain ground after a co-ordinated effort by the government and central bank to shore up confidence in the Hungarian economy following sharp slides in the currency this week.

 

The Euro fell over 1% to a low of Ft315.10 after the central bank said it was working closely with politicians to ensure the stability of Hungary's economy, raising hopes that the country would soon reach a funding deal with the International Monetary Fund. The Dollar fell 0.8% to Ft247.08.

 

The Forint hit a record low against the Euro on Thursday of more than Ft324 after a debt auction that raised less than had been hoped, with investors demanding yields of nearly 10% on one-year government bonds.

 

The pound climbed to 82.39 pence per Euro, the strongest since Sept. 10, 2010, before trading little changed at 82.54 pence as of 4:48 p.m. London time, 0.9% higher than last week. Sterling dropped 0.5% to $1.5426 and 118.87 Yen.

 

The Swiss franc was little changed against the Euro in spite of figures showing that inflation was weaker than expected. Investors have speculated that the Swiss National Bank could raise the level at which it is prepared to buy Euros to keep the franc weak in a bid to help exporters and stimulate growth in the face of falling inflation.

 

However, analysts said that a controversy over foreign currency trades made by the wife of the SNB governor could make it difficult for the bank to act in the near future.

 

Indonesia's Rupiah and South Korea's Won led declines in Asian currencies this week on speculation investors will favor safer assets than those in emerging markets as Europe struggles to contain its debt crisis.

 

The Rupiah slumped 1.5% this week to 9,208 per Dollar as of 3:34 p.m. in Jakarta, according to prices from local banks. South Korea's Won weakened 0.9% to 1,162.75 and the Philippine Peso dropped 0.7% to 44.138. Thailand's Baht slid 0.2% to 31.63.

 

The emerging-market currency rally spurred by a strong US jobs report faded late Friday, as Euro-zone worries loomed over markets.

 

Emerging-market currencies exited the week mostly mixed, as investors now look ahead to key risk events in Europe in coming weeks. The Czech Koruna and Brazilian Real underperformed.

 

South Africa's Rand gained as much as 0.8% to 8.1161 per Dollar before trading little changed at 8.1744.

 

Canada's Dollar weakened versus most of its major peers after the nation's employers added fewer jobs in December than forecast and the jobless rate rose for a third straight month. The currency declined 0.6% to C$1.0264 per US Dollar.

 

Finally, as always I'll end currencies here in China where the RMB fell for a third day, completing its first weekly drop in almost a month on signs policy makers are limiting gains in the currency to protect exports as Europe's debt crisis deepens.

 

The People's Bank of China set the fixing 0.08% weaker at 6.3166 per Dollar Friday after Commerce Minister Chen Deming said the government will roll out measures to boost consumption this year. The economy expanded 8.6% from a year earlier in the fourth quarter, the least since 2009, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed.

 

The RMB weakened 0.12% Friday and 0.25% this week to 6.3095 per Dollar in Shanghai, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The RMB strengthened 4.7% last year, the best performance among Asia's 10 most-traded currencies excluding the Yen.

China 
Key news eminating from China this week .....
 China MarketsLand sales slowed sharply in China last year, according to a series of industry reports that highlight the deepening woes of debt-laden local governments that depend on land auctions as a crucial revenue source.

 

While the falling sales are still far from reaching crisis point, analysts say, authorities are increasingly under pressure to choose between costly help for the worst-hit cities and an unpalatable relaxation of its policies aimed at preventing a dangerous property bubble.

 

Nearly 900 land auctions failed in 2011, about three times more than in 2010, Centaline, a real estate company, said. Meanwhile, government revenues from land sales fell 13% in 130 big cities to Rmb1,900bn ($300bn), according to the China Index Academy, a property research group.

 

Official data about how the land market performed in 2011 will not be published until later this month, but the industry numbers leave little doubt that there has been a serious downturn since 2010, when land sales surged 70%.

 

Although weaker sales were expected as a consequence of the government's sustained campaign to cool the once-bubbly property market, the deterioration appears to have been quite sudden, accelerating at the end of the year.

 

Centaline noted that one-third of the failed auctions - when bids either failed to materialise or were too low - occurred in November and December. Huang Yu, vice-president of the China Index Academy, told state media that the national land market was entering a "deep freeze".

 

The failed auctions have been a nationwide phenomenon. Guangzhou, a booming metropolis near Hong Kong, has fared particularly poorly, suffering multiple failed sales since November. Shanghai, China's aspiring financial centre, also attracted no buyers at one auction last month.

 

Wen Jiabao, China's premier, has repeatedly said that Beijing will not relax its clampdown on the property market until prices have returned to reasonable levels. Prices have started to edge down in recent months, but analysts think the correction will have to intensify before the government eases its restrictions, such as limits on the number of homes people can buy.

 

The slowdown comes at an uncomfortable time for China's local governments, hitting them just as the mountain of debt that they racked up over the past few years starts to come due.

 

Local governments owed Rmb10,700bn at the end of 2010, and 53% of that must be paid back before the end of next year, according to the national audit office.

 

Analysts have said that the debt load is manageable - it amounts to just about a quarter of gross domestic product. But the shortfall in land revenues will make life more difficult for local governments.

 

Guan Qingyou, a researcher at Qinghua University, calculates that land sales formed 74% of their revenue base in 2010, up from 10% in the late 1990s. The central government has been gradually implementing tax reforms to give provinces and municipalities additional revenue channels, but direct transfer payments will be needed to plug most of the hole for the time being.

 

As for the maturing loans, Chinese economists have suggested that local governments be allowed to roll over at least some of their debt to make the repayment burden more manageable. The risk, however, is that this simply pushes the day of reckoning further into the future.

 

In the meantime, to try to revive land auctions, local governments have started to cut prices and break plots into smaller pieces.

 

Some of their actions have run contrary to Beijing's cornerstone policy of building up more public housing for poorer citizens. The China Real Estate Information Corporation noted that several municipalities had suspended a requirement that developers buying land must also build a certain amount of affordable housing on it.

 

The decline in land sales revenue would have been even worse but for a commercial property market that has been much more robust than the residential market. But analysts warn a growing supply glut in the commercial sector could soon change that, adding to the problems facing local governments.

 

************************************

 

China has uncovered 531bn RMB ($84bn; £54bn) of irregularities in local government debts.

 

The National Audit Office said breaches included "irregular credit guarantees", "irregular collateral" and "fraudulent and underpayment of registered capital".

 

There are growing concerns about the amount of bad loans being held by local governments.

 

Official figures show they held debt of 10.7tn RMB ($1.7tn; £1.1tn) in 2010.

 

"The State Council is studying proposals to enhance local government debt management and to address fiscal and financial risks," the audit office said in the report.

 

Local governments have been borrowing money from Chinese banks to fund projects aimed at maintaining economic growth.

 

According to the China Banking Regulatory Commission, local governments took up 80% of total bank lending in China at the end of 2010.

 

However, analysts said that although the lending had helped to spur investment and boost growth, it was now weighing on local governments.

 

"Whenever you look at lending that spurs growth miracles, it starts off with an increasing ability to pay the debt," a Professor at Peking University said.

 

"But in every case that ability fades. That is the process that is happening in China," he explained. "We are going to see stories like this again and again."

 

In October last year, China allowed four local governments to sell bonds for the first time in 17 year. It was hoped the sale would help them pay their loans.

 

However, the central government put a limit on the amount of bonds the local governments could issue despite the fact that there was a lot of interest among investors.

 

According to the Xinhua news agency, Shanghai's bond sale received bids for three times the amount of bonds on offer.

 

As a result, many of the local governments still have sizeable debts and while the central government may let them raise money, it may also have to take further measures to solve the problem, analysts said.

 

"A lot of the local debt will be absorbed by the central government," said the professor.

 

************************************

 

China has vowed to take fresh steps to stimulate consumption as its economy slows under the weight of weakening exports and a property market downturn.

 

In announcing the plan on Thursday, Chen Deming, commerce minister, also said that China's trade surplus fell to about $160bn last year, its third straight annual decline - a trend that could pave the way to slower RMB appreciation.

 

Mr Chen's statement following a start-of-year planning meeting was an important indication of how Beijing is shifting gears in response to the latest global economic woes. Rather than launching a massive fiscal stimulus as it did in 2008, it is instead focusing on getting consumers to spend more, trying to unleash domestic demand as a new growth engine.

 

Analysts cautioned, however, that this push would take time to bear fruit and that China's economy was bound to slow this year.

 

Mr Chen said Beijing was researching a series of new measures to boost spending on energy-saving products, tourism and online shopping. He also said that the government was looking to replace subsidies for vehicle and appliance purchases that expired at the end of last year and had been very successful.

 

"The domestic and the external environments are more serious and more complex this year," he said. "The commerce ministry will face bigger pressures and challenges in its work."

 

Mr Chen gave few details of how the commerce ministry will implement its plans, but his statement will serve as a blueprint for officials to develop policies and programmes that are likely to be announced in the coming months.

 

China has ample room to stimulate consumption. Household spending accounted for half of gross domestic product two decades ago but dwindled to just 33.8% of GDP in 2010, a record low for a major economy in peacetime.

 

Although China is often described as an export-driven economy, its reliance on trade has diminished greatly since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, to the point that net exports now subtract from China's growth rate.

 

Mr Chen said that Beijing would try to stabilise trade by giving exporters more support, assisting them with financing and tax rebates. He did not mention China's controversial exchange rate policy. Foreign critics, especially in the United States, still think the RMB is undervalued, but many analysts believe that Beijing will slow the currency's appreciation after it rose 4.5% against the Dollar last year.

 

The most important motor of the Chinese economy's breakneck expansion over the past two decades has been capital-intensive investment. Beijing still has the fiscal power to pursue major investment projects - in one key initiative it is building millions of units of affordable housing. But there is less scope for the massive infrastructure spending that it used to revive the economy in 2008.

 

************************************

 

China is poised to unveil measures to bolster the country's nascent short-selling industry in an effort to deepen its capital markets, according to securities officials and fund managers.

 

Beijing will create a new body called the Centralised Securities Lending Exchange to facilitate short selling as early as this quarter. China Securities Regulatory Commission, the market regulator, will be the largest shareholder in the body, which was first mooted last year.

 

Short sellers sell borrowed shares in the hope of reaping a profit by buying the equivalent securities back later at a lower price and returning them to the lender.

 

The practice has been curbed in some markets on the grounds it can exacerbate volatility, and Beijing has taken care to retain control of its introduction and development. Defenders of the practice say it increases liquidity and provides income for shareholders who are willing to lend their securities.

 

China embraced short selling in 2010, but efforts to promote its use have been hampered by the limited number of shares available for qualified asset managers to borrow.

 

Other shareholders in the CSLE will include the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, as well as brokerage firms and other financial institutions. It is not clear which firms will be involved, but in early 2010 just six had licences to engage in securities lending and margin financing. At the end of that year, only 25 brokerages had licences to provide a broader array of prime services.

 

The new centralised lending exchange will make shares available to qualified fund managers in China who wish to borrow them, for a fee. It will source the shares from institutions in China including banks, insurers and fund management firms.

 

Currently, qualified fund managers can only borrow shares owned by brokerage firms. Both parties must meet high asset requirements, discouraging such activity. Margin financing also remains under-developed, with just 285 stocks are allowed to be traded on margin.

 

Securities firms believe Beijing's move will spur the development of the hedge fund industry. China's hedge fund industry is dominated by less regulated "sunshine funds", which target wealthy individuals and are the closest thing China has to hedge funds. According to The Securities Association of China, there were 400 such funds operating at the end of 2010.

 

According to Chinese brokerage executives, the timing of the introduction of the new measures may also have been affected by the recent leadership shuffle at the CSRC which saw Guo Shuqing, the former chairman of China Construction Bank, become the regulatory body's new chairman.

 

Some asset managers say the prospect of the new rules was one reason that Chinese stock markets were among the world's worst performers in 2011, with the Shanghai Composite index down almost 22% for the year.

 

************************************

 

Two of China's leading cities are raising their minimum wages despite the prospect of slower economic growth this year, a move that owners of smaller businesses warn could result in widespread closures given the sharp fall in demand from western economies.

 

The moves by Beijing and Shenzhen are likely to kick off what has become an annual ritual in China in recent years, of local governments racing to boost minimum wages. But whereas they rose nationwide by 22% on average over the past two years, the increases this year are set to be smaller because of the pressures on China's export-reliant manufacturing sector.

 

The southern city of Shenzhen, where the minimum wage has historically been China's highest, will increase the monthly rate by 15.9% in February to Rmb1,500 ($238). In 2011, the minimum wage in the boom town, just across the border from Hong Kong, was increased 20%.

 

The city of Beijing has raised its minimum wage by 8.6% to Rmb1,260, considerably less than the increases of the previous two years, which were 20% and 20.8%. The smaller increase this year was because "small- and medium-sized enterprises have been facing difficulties, and their real capacity to absorb wages increases has limits", the Beijing News reported.

 

Even so, factory owners said the timing could not be worse.

 

"It means that Shenzhen doesn't care whether businesses struggling under the harsh economic environment are going to live or die," said Stanley Lau, deputy chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, speaking on behalf of the many members operating factories just across the border.

 

Chinese exporters have also been squeezed by the RMB's steady appreciation - it has risen about 8.5% against the Dollar over the past year and a half. Low-end manufacturing has begun to spread to other countries in Asia, including Indonesia and Vietnam, where workers are paid less.

 

Mr Lau said factory owners were waiting to hear if wages would also rise in Guangdong province, where most of China's manufacturing capacity is located. Shenzhen, though located in Guangdong, sets its own minimum wage owing to its status as a special economic zone.

 

On an hourly basis, Shenzhen's minimum wage is now about four times less than the federal requirement in the US. In 2004, when Shenzhen introduced a minimum wage, basic pay was nearly 12 times cheaper than in the US.

 

China's government is keen to push wages higher in order to boost domestic consumption and to narrow a widening poverty gap, which is one source of growing discontent.

 

In China's five-year plan for 2011-15, the government said that minimum wages should be raised by at least 13% annually. Some economists have warned that such wage goals are too rigid and that Beijing should adjust its policies as the economy evolves.

 

Even without mandatory increases in the minimum wage, labour costs have been rising as the working-age population grows more slowly. Different regions also adjust wages competitively to attract migrant workers because China's one-child policy has resulted in a systemic labour shortage.

 

The biggest increase of 2012 so far has been in Sichuan province, where the government announced that minimum wages would be lifted by 23.4% on average. But that was in large part an attempt to catch up with other parts of the country. Sichuan was one of the few provinces to keep the minimum wage unchanged last year.

 

Yin Weimin, human resources and social security minister, told state radio on Wednesday that the government remained committed to raising incomes at the lowest rung of the ladder, but he also mentioned other factors, such as growth and inflation concerns, that could curb the push for wage gains this year.

 

The rise in basic wages last year came as the cost of living went up sharply. While China's consumer price index fell from its summer peak of 6.5% to just above 4% in November, many blue collar workers complained that their disposable income had not gone up.

 

"Factories often deduct mandatory pension and insurance contributions from the workers, even though it is the employer's responsibility to make those payments. What's left for the workers rarely covers increases in utilities bills and rent," said Zhang Zhiru, a labour activist in Shenzhen. 

Summary  
The coming week looks like .....
Commodities Indices
 For all those cynics that doubted my interpretation of Italian banking giant Unicredit back in June of last year; it seems that my musings back then are coming to fruition.

 

Shares of UniCredit, Italy's biggest bank by assets, sank for a third day as investors punished the stock after the lender priced a 7.5 billion-Euro ($9.5 billion) rights issue at a deep discount.

 

The shares closed down 11.1% at 3.98 Euros on Friday, the last trading day before the new share offer takes effect on Monday, extending losses over the past three days to 37%.

 

Since it priced the rights issue on Wednesday, UniCredit's market capitalization has fallen from 12.2 billion Euros to 7.68 billion, a shade above the total amount of the new share offer.

 

UniCredit's rights issue is a litmus test of investor appetite for banking stocks at a time when many European lenders are under pressure to shore up their capital buffers to withstand a spreading debt crisis.

 

To meet the new requirements, UniCredit must plug an 8 billion-Euro capital shortfall -- the biggest shortfall for a single bank after Spain's Santander.

 

The Milan-based lender, the first big European bank to launch a share offer since the tougher capital requirements were introduced, priced its two-for-one rights issue at 1.943 Euros per share.

 

That represents a 43% discount to the theoretical ex-rights price, a much higher discount than that offered by peers in recent rights issues.

 

The shares are trading at their lowest since UniCredit was created in 1998 through the merger of several Italian lenders.

  

It will be very interesting to see what happens to Unicredit in particular next week.

As to be expected, next week - and the coming weeks if not months - will see focus firmly remain on the mess that is Europe.

 

New Year fireworks have hardly lightened the gloom in the Euro zone and 2012 has begun pretty much as 2011 left off.

 

The summit calendar is filling up - investors will be hanging on the words of the German and French leaders when they meet on Monday to put more flesh on the bones of the fiscal compact agreed at the last make-or-break summit in December.

 

Government bond auctions are still tests of nerve - Spanish and Italian borrowing costs will be under the microscope when they issue bonds in the coming week. The threat of a mass credit rating downgrade still hangs over Euro zone states, possibly requiring investors to sell up assets that lose their triple-A status.

 

For many, the European Central Bank is still the last best hope of resolving the debt crisis and markets will be on alert at next Thursday's meeting for any hint from President Mario Draghi of a rate cut to come.

 

Some things have changed - the ECB's massive injection of three-year liquidity has alleviated pressure on banks and pushed down money market rates, though anyone hoping for more interbank lending will have been disappointed. Some economic data has beaten forecasts, including US payrolls, but overall the outlook is as uncertain as ever.

 

Spain and Italy embark in the coming week on the tricky task of refinancing their maturing public debt in a market still on edge over the lack of a solution to the Euro zone debt crisis. The bulk of the 489 billion Euros borrowed from the European Central Bank in December remains on deposit at the ECB and shows little sign of filtering through to demand for long-term government bonds.

 

Yields on Spanish and Italian debt remain high and revelations over the health of public finances have taken the shine off Spain's recent outperformance.

 

Also weighing in with debt sales are three of the region's triple-A sovereigns: Germany, Austria and the Netherlands. Unless, of course, Standard & Poor's delivers its highly anticipated review of Euro zone sovereign ratings and leaves the region without an issuer with triple-A status.

 

The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is not expected to deliver much in the way of extra relief for markets after pumping the Eurosystem full of long-term loans. This has taken the sting out of a possible money market crunch and shored up bank funding for the near future, but done little to spur freer lending between financial institutions.

 

Even so, few expect new liquidity measures to be unveiled, with a fresh batch of three-year loans being made available in February. A rate cut is not on the agenda yet, despite a drop in Euro zone inflation, with little easing priced into money markets over the coming months.

 

Having done so much already, the consensus seems to be that the central bank will hold fire and wait to see the impact on markets, meaning any hopes of much expanded ECB bond-buying are likely to remain holstered for now.

 

Any bounce in the Euro is proving short-lived as the single currency plumbs multi-month lows versus the Dollar and decade lows against the Yen. Persistent concerns about the funding requirements of European sovereigns heading into those Spanish and Italian debt sales are likely to keep the currency under pressure.

 

Adding to its vulnerability are worries over a likely recession in the Euro zone even as the US economy shows some signs of emerging from the doldrums. Euro/US swap spreads continue to narrow and this should weigh on the Euro, though the pace of its descent is likely to be slowed by the fact many investors already hold short positions.

 

European stocks eked out a brief rally over the New Year but tests on two consecutive days of the post-August sell-off high failed to draw in buyers in any number, with sentiment still vulnerable to the same debt and growth concerns that hobbled equity investors in 2011.

 

While US data offers succour to those of a more optimistic mien, the still-unresolved Euro zone debt crisis and prospect of further hits to corporate profits as austerity bites mean rallies garner little support and the FTSEurofirst 300 remains in the broad range in place since mid-2011.

 

The degree to which corporates in the United States and Europe are diverging in their outlook could become more apparent next week when Alcoa kicks off the US fourth-quarter earnings season along with JP Morgan, while trading updates from retailers including Tesco, Morrisons, HMV and Mothercare will dominate the attention of UK investors.

 

Gold prices may come under pressure next week as the first full week of 2012 gets under way. The various commodity indexes will be rebalancing next week and gold prices could come under some pressure from index-followers selling holding to align with the new weightings in the indexes.

 

Index rebalancing will be a feature of the markets next week, as the various commodity indexes, such as the S&P GSCI and the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index change the weights of the various commodities that comprise the indexes. Gold could see some selling pressure during the rebalancing action.

 

In the US the Commerce Department releases the November trade balance Friday. The trade deficit narrowed in October for the fourth month in a row, as oil exports helped to offset record imports from China.

 

The Labour Department will release December import and export price indexes Friday. US import prices increased in November at the fastest pace since April as fuel costs jumped.

 

As expected, the year's first round of US government debt supply will come next week, with the Treasury Department offering $32 billion three-year notes, $21 billion 10-year notes and $13 billion 30-year bonds. The auctions will be held Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

 

Broadly speaking, US Treasury auctions in 2011 went very well, with a number of sales raising debt at record-low yields. With the Euro-zone crisis still looming large, these auctions may be greeted with similar demand even though US economic reports have been improving of late, typically a signal to sell Treasuries.

 

For me though, I think the key for setting the tone for the week will be Monday where German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy will meet to discuss further efforts to tackle the Euro zone's sovereign-debt problems and to enhance fiscal discipline among the 17-member currency bloc as part of a fiscal pact agreed at a summit last month.

 

If that doesn't go too well and the Spanish/Italian auctions next week fail to attract the interest desired/desperately needed, then we could see a major plunge in Europe before the week is out.

 

All told, no different to Q4 of last year - lots of speculation and very little real action!

As always, I will keep you posted with major developments as/when they occur in the week ahead.
 
In the meantime, I wish you all a very pleasant weekend.
 
Market Newsletter Written By 


Adrian Page

Managing Director
Financial Page International
 
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