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Global Weekly Markets Review - 8 September 2007
Good Morning Ladies and Gentlemen,
As mentioned for the past few weeks, the writing has been on the wall and only now are we slowly starting to see the sub-prime credit concerns' ripple effect in Global Markets. This was not unexpected.
However, one very noteworthy point this week, which amazingly did not get much media coverage, was someone who, as recently as last year, only had to 'cough' or 'sneeze' to move the markets, voice his own concerns.
This week saw former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan commenting on current market conditions.
"The human race has never found a way to confront bubbles," Mr Greenspan said Thursday in reference to the euphoria that can precede contractions, or reactions, like the current market turmoil, according to a published report.
Mr Greenspan, speaking to economists in Washington, DC, compared the turmoil to that of 1987 and in 1998, when the giant hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management nearly collapsed.
"The behaviour in what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998, what we saw in the stock-market crash of 1987, I suspect what we saw in the land-boom collapse of 1837 and certainly the bank panic of 3/8 1907," Mr Greenspan said at the event organized by the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.
Mr Greenspan, now a private consultant, said euphoria takes over when the economy is expanding and leads to bubbles, "and these bubbles cannot be defused until the fever breaks".
Bubbles can't be defused through incremental adjustments in interest rates, he suggested, the paper reported. The Fed doubled interest rates in 1994-95, and "stopped the nascent stock-market boom," but when stopped, stocks took off again. "We tried to do it again in 1997," when the Fed raised rates a quarter of a percentage point, and "the same phenomenon occurred."
Mr Greenspan's comments were very apt in my view and yet where was the media coverage of what he said? There was a tiny article on Reuters and next to nothing on any other financial website; why would that be?
Conspiracy theories aside, the US's economy is showing all the signs of strain and I am sat here wondering how long they can hold out before the floodgates open. Without a shadow of a doubt, September 18th, the next meeting of the Federal Reserve, is probably its most important meeting for years and this is where markets will take the lead from for the rest of the year. Not just in the US either, Global Markets seem to be treading water until this point.
So without further ado, let's go straight to the numbers for the week:
Investors had expected a gain of 110,000 new jobs for August, but a loss of 4,000 sparked sharply lower stock prices. The report left investors contemplating whether the US economy could face a recession, rather than a period of below average growth. Before the arrival of the jobs report, the recent mood among equity investors had been one of cautious optimism. This was in spite of a persistent credit squeeze in the money markets. The commercial paper market has contracted 13.4% in the past four weeks. Investors in the US have been overly sanguine (some would call it naive, and/or blind, and/or greedy) about prospects for the economy and continued to hope the problems in the subprime and housing sectors would remain contained. Recession is the 64,000 Dollar question and payrolls bode ill for consumer spending and corporate profits. The latest payroll number means the average job gain for the past three months has been 44,000, well below the average of 147,000 between January and May. Sharp declines in construction and manufacturing payrolls indicates the housing recession is infecting the broader economy. Stocks sagged badly on Friday and erased what had been modest gains for the week. The S&P 500 closed 1.7% lower at 1,453.55, a loss of 1.4% this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.9% to close at 13,113.38, a fall of 1.8% over the week. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.9% to 2,565.70, a decline of 1.2% since Monday. As the corporate bond market weakened and bond yields fell sharply on Friday, bond traders said the equity market should recognise the risk of a protracted slump in the economy. They highlighted the fact that many homeowners still needed to refinance their floating rate mortgages at higher interest rates this year. As interest rate futures priced in a Fed funds rate of 4.57% by the end of October, some analysts fear rate cuts may not help alleviate the present credit squeeze. The scramble by banks to shore up their balance sheets as commercial paper withers as a source of funding for many institutions could impede consumer credit, warn analysts. The near certainty of a rate cut this month pressured the Dollar, but gold prices surged. The GLD exchange-traded fund for gold set a 52-week high of $70. The prospect of a weaker Dollar and a faster growing global economy means investors should continue to focus on stocks that have international exposure, such as technology and large caps, said analysts. All 10 major sectors in the S&P were lower on Friday and for the week, the consumer discretionary sector fell 3.2% amid fears over lower consumer spending. Financials declined 2.6% this week, while the S&P investment bank index fell 0.8% yesterday. That took its loss for the year to 16.5%. Investors are still waiting to see whether Wall Street can clear a backlog of $300bn in unsold loans and bonds, associated with this year’s record buy-out deals. Lehman Brothers fell 3.4% to $52.95 and Citigroup lost 3% to $45.48 this week. Investors feared these banks were more exposed than others to the backlog. Shares in Countrywide Financial, the largest US mortgage lender, fell 8.3% to $18.21. It is down 57% this year. Another beleaguered sector, homebuilders, lost 6.8% this week, taking its fall for the year to 50%. Other stocks in the news this week were Apple, as it announced a new range of iPod music players and cut the price of its iPhone. The stock fell 4.8% to $131.77. Tyson Foods fell 14% to $18.54 as it cut its outlook due to higher food prices. |
The FTSE Eurofirst 300 fell 2.6% to 1,494.88 over the week. So, let's start this week's European round-up in Paris where France 's main bourse, the CAC-40 closed sharply down as rumours of a profit-warning from Societe Generale, followed by an unexpected drop in US August jobs data, stoked fears the sub-prime crisis is spilling over into the broader economy. The CAC-40 index finished down 146.52 points or 2.63% at 5,430.10, with all component shares closing in the red. On the broader indices, the SBF-80 index closed down 145.32 or 2.16% at 6,585.81, and the SBF-120 ended down 104.29 or 2.56% at 3,965.31. The jittery mood took its toll on stocks throughout the market, although the usual suspects, financial and construction stocks, bore the brunt of the sell-off. Like Societe Generale, BNP Paribas closed on heavy losses, down 2.58 or 3.41% at 73.12, Dexia fell 0.60 or 2.84% to 20.53, Credit Agricole shed 0.81 or 2.97% to 26.45 and Natixis ended the day down 0.70 or 4.47% at 14.97. In the construction sector, Saint Gobain ended down 3.38 or 4.48% at 72.04, Lafarge dropped 4.30 or 3.85% to 107.50 and Ciments Francais closed on losses of 4.74 or 3.27% at 140.27 The property sector also suffered, with Unibail-Rodamco plunging 10.73 or 5.99% to 168.52, Gecina falling 4.75 or 3.89% to 117.32 and Klepierre falling 1.58 or 54.03% to 37.63. Kaufman & Broad fared better than its peers, only slipping into the red later in the day and closing down 0.59 or 1.27% at 45.80. French market regulator, the AMF, today announced that Financiere Gaillon 8 SAS, which is controlled by PAI Partners, now owns 79.46% of Kaufman's shares following the launch of its buyout offer. The biggest faller of the day was womenswear retailer Etam Developpement, which plummeted 10.85 or 21.77% to 38.99 after issuing a profit-warning for its activities in China. Analysts at Kepler Equities downgraded Etam to 'Reduce' from 'Buy' and put their 65 Eur target on review, saying the warning is actually 'two-fold'. In addition to the declining EBIT in China, Etam is guiding for a flat EBIT contribution in Europe, they said. Elsewhere, few stocks were spared by the market sell-off, although the prospect of this weekend's Rugby World Cup appeared to give some light relief. Holiday operator Pierre et Vacances rose 0.94 or 0.88% to 107.44 after yesterday's business report, which showed the sporting event had given a boost to bookings in France. German stocks fell the most in almost six months Friday. Deutsche Bank AG, the country's biggest bank, led a decline in financial shares after Dresdner Kleinwort said earnings estimates at some European investment banks are too high. Siemens AG and DaimlerChrysler AG, among companies that are most dependent on US growth, also fell. The benchmark DAX Index lost 185.09, or 2.4%, to 7436.63, its biggest drop since March 2007. The measure fell 2.6% this week. The HDAX Index of the country's 110 biggest companies fell 2.4% Friday. Suffering under continued pressure on the financial sector, Commerzbank dropped 1.57 Eur or 5.20% at 28.61 to lead blue chips lower. Traders pointed to vague rumours that Germany's second largest bank might be exposed to increased sub-prime risks through its subsidiary EssenHyp. The bank declined to comment on the rumours. Peer Deutsche Postbank retreated 1.91 Eur or 3.61% to 50.98. Allianz dropped 4.61 Eur or 2.95% to 151.86, while Deutsche Bank fell 2.67 Eur or 2.89% to 89.70. Automotive shares were also lower, with MAN losing 4.86 Eur or 4.61% to 100.67, Continental declining 4.21 Eur or 4.43% to 90.80 and BMW dropping 1.75 Eur or 3.88% to 43.38 after the disappointing US date also prompted the Euro to rise. Bucking today's negative trend, Fresenius Medical Care added 0.40 Eur or 1.12% at 36.00 as one of only two large cap risers. SAP added 0.11 Eur or 0.27% at 40.38 after the software manufacturer announced late yesterday that it will decrease its capital stock by cancelling 23 million treasury shares, or 1.8% of its capital stock. Dealers also pointed to speculation that SAP might raise its full-year guidance despite comments from the company that it currently plans to stick to the forecasts it has already given. Over on the MDAX, Wacker Chemie dropped 9.10 Eur or 5.65% at 151.90. At the other end of the index, Rhoen Klinikum added 0.38 Eur or 1.74% to 22.25, at the top of only two MDAX gainers. TecDAX-listed Solon was the weakest stock on the index, down 3.48 Eur or 5.25% at 62.80, while Tele Atlas added 0.09 Eur or 0.44% at 20.64. In The Netherlands , Amsterdam saw markets plunge in line with regional indices. The AEX was down 9.78 points or 1.86% at 517.43, having opened at 526.17 and trading in the 516.49-529.25 band. Staffer Randstad led decliners, dropping 7.30% to 37.31 Eur, while peer Vedior gave up 3.32% to 16.0, and midcap staffer USG shed 7.16% at 21.01. Corio weakened 6.33% to 52.82. Real estate group Unibail-Rodamco fell 5.99% at 168.52. Tech related shares suffered, ASML shedding 3.44% to 22.20, Philips off 2.34% to 28.37, and ASMI down 4.10% to 19.67. Corporate Express closed 2.72% lower to 8.22 after trading mainly higher during the day following a divestment that dealers said triggered renewed merger and acquisition speculation. ABN Amro, 1.83% lower to 33.83, saw some heavy volume trading, as did ING, off 1.21% to 29.42, and Royal Dutch Shell, down 1.70% to 28.89, influenced by the negative sentiment spawned by the US economic data. Ahold was not able to survive the negative sentiment, turning 1.86 lower to 10.02 in late afternoon trade, following a day in positive territory. In Belgium , Brussels was unable to buck the European trend, with heavy losses across the board. At the close, the Bel 20 was down 102.98 points or 2.38% at 4,227.47, with all blue-chip stocks in the red. Pharmaceuticals group Solvay was the lead faller, down 4.83 Eur or 4.49% at 102.80. Earlier, UBS reduced its target price to 108 Eur from 117. Peer Omega Pharma closed down 2.05 Eur or 3.25% at 60.94. Real estate company Cofinimmo fell 5.31 Eur or 4.22% to 120.63. Dexia fell the furthest among the financials, shedding 0.62 Eur or 2.93% to 20.53. Peers KBC and Fortis also fared badly, falling 2.30 Eur or 2.45% to 91.61, and 0.69 Eur or 2.57% to 26.20, respectively. The market is still awaiting Fortis's expected announcement of a 13 billion Eur capital increase to finance its part of the ABN-Amro bid. KBC securities reduced its expected issue price to 27 Eur per share from 30 on recent weakness. Utility Suez closed down 1.09 Eur or 2.79% at 38.01. Italian daily Il Sole 24 Ore said Enel SpA is interested in some of the Suez assets that might have to be sold as a result of the planned merger with Gaz de France. The follows a denial of interest by Enel's CFO Thursday. Separately, a spokesman for Spanish energy sector watchdog CNE said it is likely to decide on Suez's request to raise its stake in Gas Natural SDG SA to 11.4% in the second half of September. Brewer InBev fell 0.56 Eur or 0.93% to 59.54. Outside the Bel 20, biotechnology company Thrombogenics closed 0.26 Eur or 2.61% at 9.69 in line with the market. Earlier, its target price was raised to 13.50 Eur from 13.00 at KBC Securities on news that anticoagulant TB-402 is moving into Phase II clinical trials. Broadcast equipment supplier EVS closed up 1.48 Eur or 2.18% at 69.50 on positive feedback from Thursday's analysts' meeting on the company's second-quarter results. KBC Securities reiterated its 'buy' rating and 77 Eur target price. Telenet closed down 0.14 Eur or 0.60% at 23.16. Petercam cut its target price for the telecoms group to 31.97 Eur from 33, citing the current credit squeeze. Tessenderlo outperformed the market, down 0.26 Eur or 0.60% at 42.99. Bank Degroof upped its target price to 43 Eur from 40 and maintained its 'hold' rating following the chemical group's stronger-than-expected second-quarter results. In Switzerland , Zurich saw the share market close sharply lower across the board with blue-chip financials among the biggest decliners. The Swiss Market Index closed 1.7%, or 153.97 points, lower at 8,676.13, while the Swiss Performance Index closed 1.7%, or 121.37 points, down at 7,067.97. The Euro was lower at 1.6344 SFr, while the Dollar was 1.1% down at 1.1883 SFr. Financials took most of the pressure, with Credit Suisse losing 2.9%, or 2.30 SFr to close at 76.90, and UBS also retreating 2.5%, or 1.60 SFr, to close at 61.50. Julius Baer fell 3.6%, or 2.85 SFr to close at 76.15 SFr, and Zurich Financial dropped 1.7%, or 5.75 SFr to close at 340.00. Earlier, Zurich said it had acquired 100% of Wrightway Underwriting Ltd in Ireland for an undisclosed sum. Baloise fell 1.2%, or 1.40 SFr to close at 111.50, extending yesterday's losses on profit taking after its first half results. Earlier, Citigroup upgraded Baloise to 'hold' from 'sell', citing the Swiss insurer's solid first-half earnings. Swiss Re lost 1.6%, or 1.60 SFr to close at 100.50, and Swiss Life reversed earlier gains, dropping 1.1%, or 3.25 SFr to close at 285.50. In pharmaceuticals, Roche lost 1.30 SFr to close at 210.10 and Novartis dropped 1%, or 0.65 SFr to close at 63.50. Heavyweight Nestle shed 1%, or 5.00 SFr to close at 506.50. Outside the SMI, Helvetia fell 5.8%, or 25 SFr to close at 404 after disappointing first half results. The Swiss insurer reported a net profit of 172.9 million SFr, up 6.1% year-on-year, but missed forecasts as costs from Kyrill and other storms weighed on its non-life business. Consequently, the group's non-life combined ratio rose 6.4%age points to 102%. A Bank Helvea (Pictet & Cie) analyst said the high storm-linked claims were a negative surprise and had prompted a review of Helvetia's target price and earnings estimates. Swiss power supply group Newave rose 1.6%, or 0.90 SFr to close at 57.90 as the market welcomed an expectation-beating first-half net profit and analysts were positive on the company's EBIT margin of 15.6%. Earlier, the Ticino-based group reported a first half net profit of 3.3 million SFr, up from 1.9 million the year before, and an EBIT of 4.3 million SFr. Neighbours Austria saw Shares close lower, with index heavyweights Raiffeisen International and Telekom Austria leading a general retreat on the Vienna bourse. The ATX closed down 1.77% or 80.82 points at 4,4987.09. The ATX Prime closed down 2.41% or 53.70 points at 2,176.73. Bricks and roofing manufacturer Wienerberger was hit once again by investor concerns on the state of the US housing market and ended down 3.09% at 50.10 Eur. Heavyweight OMV added for the second day on rising oil prices and after analysts at Oppenheim repeated their buy recommendation on news its Romanian unit Petrom had made progress with several oil and gas reservoirs. The oil and gas major ended the day up 0.77% at 45.80 Eur. Profit-taking in financial shares for the second day led the blue-chip index lower as Erste Bank last dealt down 1.63% at 52.95 Eur, and Raiffeisen International closed at 105.07 down 0.83%. Engineering company Andritz retreated in a sector-wide downturn and dropped 2.41% to 46.55 Eur. Highly speculative share BWIN dropped 1% to 18.85 Eur. Wiener Staedtische added 1.40% to 49.90 Eur after the ratings agency Moody's said the troubled US subprime mortgage market is unlikely to lead to any ratings downgrades for the vast majority of insurers. Newly weds voestalpine and Boehler-Uddeholm both closed higher. Boehler added 0.21% to 73.05 Eur, while voestalpine, whose extended deadline for the remaining shares in Boehler ended at 5.30 pm, added 1.40% to 60.80 Eur. Into Scandinavia now and starting with Finland where Helsinki shares closed lower reversing earlier gains after that disappointing jobs report from the US. The OMX Helsinki 25 ended 1.80% lower at 3,128.89 and the OMX Helsinki all-share index closed down 1.20% at 11,604.39 on 1.618 billion Eur turnover. Nokia - down 0.52% at 24.67 Eur - handed back earlier gains during the day that were triggered by news that Apple's iPhone may not be selling as well as hoped, and with traders citing rumours of another share buyback programme. The rest of the blue-chips ended in the red, with industrial shares falling sharply. Metso was 4.17% lower at 45.73 Eur, Rautaruukki K shed 1.95% to 39.71 Eur and Wartsila B ended down 3.63% at 44.61 Eur. Paper issues were also depressed, with UPM-Kymmene easing 0.54% at 16.44 Eur and Stora Enso R 1.37% lower at 12.96 Eur. Finnair closed 0.33% lighter at 12.25 Eur. The carrier said its passenger load factor on scheduled routes was 77.2% in August, up 1.7% points from the same month a year ago. Kone, which said it is mulling the selling of its headquarters building in Espoo, Finland ended down 2.72% at 46.83 Eur. Elsewhere, Kemira GrowHow closed 0.75% lower at 11.91 Eur. Norwegian chemicals and fertiliser group Yara International said it is extending its takeover offer for Finnish group Kemira GrowHow Oyj until September 27, with the terms of the offer to shareholders remaining unchanged. Into Norway where the Oslo market was led down by Storebrand on subprime concerns and profit warning rumours at Societe Generale, and by Tandberg. The OSEBX Benchmark index closed 6.97 points lower at 475.69 and the OSEAX All Share index fell 7.32 points to 552.51. Total turnover amounted to 16.55 billion NKr. Storebrand closed 1.9 NKr lower at 82.6 on continuing concerns about the impact of sub-prime lending on the sector, and following rumours that Societe Generale has warned the market that its consensus estimates are too high. DnB NOR fell 0.2 to 79.2 on the same concerns, dealers said. Tandberg was 3.5 lower at 132.5 on worries about its purchase of US peer Codian in a deal worth 270 million usd in cash and shares. DnB NOR said that the initial impact of the acquisition would be negative - but that the longer term effect would be positive. DnB NOR has a 'buy' on the stock with a share price target of 165 NKr. Fast Search & Transfer fell 0.7 to 10.45 after the internet search group 'failed to provide any good news' with its intra-quarterly update ahead of its third-quarter results. Fast said last night it expects to post a loss of 67-71 million in the third quarter, wider than expected by analysts, as the firm implements a wide-ranging restructuring programme. Telenor shed 1.25 to 110. Norsk Hydro was down 1 at 222. The aluminium firm held its annual capital markets days earlier this week - its first as a 'pure' aluminium company - and analysts said the event suggested the company could make major moves to 're-gear' its balance sheet. Merrill Lynch said, 'we believe that capital returns of 12-15 billion NKr could be possible'. The broker has a 'buy' recommendation on Hydro. Statoil shed 2.75 to 174. UBS cut its target on the stock to 195 NKr from 200 on a reiterated 'neutral'. Subsea 7 was 2.75 lower at 138.25. The group signed an exclusive four-year agreement with Canyon Offshore for the provision of offshore oil and gas trenching services system 'i-Trench'. No financial details were given. Prosafe shed 2 to 88.6. The stock was Norwegian financial research group Investech's daily preferred buy candidate today. Golden Ocean fell 0.4 to 33.8 after rising earlier in the session on strong momentum in the dry bulk shipping market. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, set another new record yesterday, dealers said. Shares in the Norwegian shipping group are currently up 17% over the last week, and 120% over the last three months, and this morning hit a new all-time high of 35.60 NKr. Jinhui Shipping, which has also benefited form the strong bulk transport rates, shed 4 to 69.25. Petroleum Geo-Services fell 3.5 to 135, Seadrill was 3.25 lower at 111.75, Fred Olsen Energy shed 3 to 267 and Frontline was down 4 at 258.5, while Stolt-Nielsen added 1 to 183.5. Tomra Systems reversed earlier gains today to close 0.8 lower at 39.95. Handelsbanken hiked its recommendation on the stock to 'accumulate', on a 47 NKr price target, from 'reduce' on valuation grounds following recent falls. The broker also said it expects positive news flow from Tomra's non-deposit operations, dealers said. Among other stocks traded yesterday, Aker Kvaerner was down 2.75 at 145.5, Aker Yards shed 0.5 to 68, Norske Skog was 2.5 lower at 65.6, Yara International fell 3.5 to 150.25 and Orkla was down 2 at 93, while Schibsted was up 4 at 272. Into Denmark now where in Copenhagen the market was led down by Coloplast on possible falls in earnings resulting from new remuneration proposals from the UK's Department of Health, as well as a broker downgrade, and Carlsberg. The OMXC20 index closed 11.34 points lower at 483.13 and the OMXCB Benchmark index shed 10.19 points to 460.60. The OMXC All Share index closed 9.88 points lower at 474.58 on turnover of 5.12 billion DKr. Coloplast closed 20 DKr lower at 491, extending losses from late yesterday after the UK's Department of Health announced revised conditions and price calculations for providing stoma and incontinence appliances and related services to primary care. These implied a fall in remuneration for providers, dealers said. In addition, S&P, which prepares analyses for Nordea Bank, cut its stance on Coloplast to 'sell' from 'hold', advising investors to take profit while the company's share buyback programme is running. Lundbeck shed 0.5 to 136.25. There were reports it has shown interest in buying Endo Pharmaceutical Holdings of the US, a leader in pain medicine with a market value of about 25 billion DKr, but analysts are sceptical about the size of the purchase. Goldman Sachs hiked its target price for Lundbeck to 125 DKr form 120, but on a reiterated 'sell', following the codevelopment deal with Takeda earlier this week. Genmab fell 4.5 to 327. A preclinical study shows its ofatumumab (HuMax-CD20) to be more effective at inducing complement dependent cytotoxicity (CDC), an immune system killing mechanism, than rituximab. Jyske Bank said the news is positive for Genmab and reiterated its 'buy' stance and 490 DKr target price on the stock. NEuroSearch was 7 lower at 266.5. Abbott Laboratories, its development and license partner, has started a clinical Phase II study with the drug candidate ABT-894 for the treatment of diabetic nEuropathic pain (severe chronic pain conditions). The drug is one of 11 in clinical development programmes at NEuroSearch. Novo Nordisk B fell 5 to 610. Carlsberg B was down 20 at 715 on profit-taking following recent gains, but underpinned by reports that the company is ready to buy Scottish & Newcastle out of their Baltic Beverages Holding (BBH) joint venture. Berlingske Tidende quoted chairman Povl Krogsgaard-Larsen as saying the company 'can clearly see advantages in getting 100% ownership of BBH.' Krogsgaard-Larsen sees a possible acquisition sum for the business of 30-40 billion DKr. But S&N's 50% stake in Baltic Beverages Holding is not for sale, industry sources said. Royal Unibrew was down 1 at 624, Danisco fell 7.5 to 387 and Novozymes ended the session 14 lower at 619. Danske Bank fell 6.75 to 210, Sydbank was down 9.75 at 235 and Jyske Bank shed 5 to 394.5, with the financial sector suffering from continuing concerns about the impact of sub-prime lending on the sector, and following rumours that Societe Generale has warned the market that its consensus estimates are too high. The negative news outweighed comments that Merrill Lynch has Danske Bank as its top Nordic pick. In a review of the Nordic bank sector, Merrill Lynch said SEB and Danske bank consistently come out looking the best in its analysis, but it thinks SEB's businesses also have higher risk and a more cyclical element. 'Our top pick in the sector remains Danske,' the broker said. Topdanmark was 23 lower at 860 and TrygVesta fell 7.5 to 428.5. DS Norden was 14 lower at 515, having risen earlier on new rises in bulk rates. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, set another new record yesterday, dealers said. They added that Norden is up 242% over the past year on the rising bulk transport rates. DS Torm fell 6.25 to 204.75, while AP Moller-Maersk A was down 1,700 at 69,300 and B shed 1,800 to 70,200. IC Companys fell 1 to 330 ahead of next week's full-year earnings report and new strategic targets. S&P has a 'buy' on the stock. Vestas Wind Systems was 11 lower at 356.5, William Demant Holding shed 20.5 to 451, GN Store Nord was down 0.75 at 54.25 and FLSmidth fell 9 to 505. And rounding out the Nordic arena this week, we go to Sweden where the Stockholm market closed sharply lower in heavy trade, in line with much of Europe. The OMX Stockholm index closed down 2.49% at 376.66 points, while the OMX Stockholm 30 closed down 2.58% at 1,159.97. Turnover amounted to 29.147 billion SKr. All the major sub indices closed sharply lower as did all the indexes major stocks. Ericsson B closed down 1.68% at 24.54 SKr. Ericsson said it has won an order worth 1.3 billion usd to upgrade and expand Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd's (BSNL) mobile network in India. The telecom operators outperformed the market, TeliaSonera closed down 0.47% at 53.25, and Tele2 B down 0.40% at 125.00. Engineering stocks all closed sharply lower, with Sandvik shedding 4.63% to close at 128.75, SKF B down 4.39% at 130.75, Atlas Copco A down 3.86% at 105.75, and SSAB A down 3.25% at 223.00. The banks all closed lower down by Swedbank A, which lost 4.76% to close at 210. OMX closed down 0.81% at 244.50. Borse Dubai which has a bid on OMX, said it has today filed an appeal with The Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, Finansinspektionen (SFSA), regarding its ruling of August 23. Among other leading shares traded, Volvo B closed down 3.24% at 112.00, Boliden down 3.72% at 136.00, Hennes & Mauritz B down 2.49% at 371.50, SCA B down 1.65% at 119.25, Skanska B down 3.92% at 128.75, and Electrolux B down 3.78% at 146.25. Down to the Med' now where in Greece Athens' shares closed lower today as international bourses were weighed by the release of a surprise fall in US non-farm payrolls data - its first monthly decline in four years. The ASE general index dropped 0.9% to 4,816 and the blue-chip index fell 1.2% to 2,556.4. The mid-cap index slid just 0.2% to 6,278.8 and small caps closed 0.2% lower to 1,059.5. Decliners outnumbered advancers 183 to 67, while 80 were unchanged in heavy trade of roughly 781 million Eur. Volume was skewed higher by a block trade of Hellenic Telecomms (OTE). Sources had said it was an intragroup transfer at the Marfin group. Construction and energy holding company GEK dropped 1.9% to 11.5 Eur and its construction unit Terna fell 1.2% to 12.84 Eur after Proton Bank cut their target prices, citing their worse-than-expected second-quarter results. Construction holding company Hellenic Technodomiki led blue-chip decliners and fell 4.6% to 9.52 Eur on profit-taking. Yesterday, it said at an investor's day that its investment programme plans a capital expenditure of roughly 400-450 million Eur. National Bank of Greece dropped 2.4% to 42.7 Eur as investors cashed in on their gains. Bank of Piraeus closed flat at 24.22 Eur. Today marked the close of its rights period for its 1.35 billion Eur capital increase. Sources told Thomson Financial News that the rights issue was oversubscribed 1.5 times. Marfin Investment Group slid 0.6% to 6.86 Eur. Its 100% acquisition of Vivartia at 25 Eur per share was approved by the Hellenic Capital Markets Commission. Furniture and sport retailer Fourlis Holdings was unchanged at 23 Eur and announced today that it opened a new IKEA store in Cyprus as part of its franchise. Dealers said the news was expected. Neighbours Italy fared no better with the market in Milan falling on losses in the banking and construction sectors. The Mibtel index lost 2.07% to 30,193 points, while the S&P/Mib fell 2.39% to 38,494. Volume traded was an estimated 6.520 billion Eur. In the banking sector, Capitalia lost 4.68% to 6.42 Eur after its results yesterday evening disappointed the market, with brokers pointing to higher than expected costs and loan provisions. A number of international broking firms reiterated their neutral stance on Capitalia, with targets of 7.6-8.3 Eur. Morgan Stanley, which is 'equalweight', said it sees earnings downgrades. Unicredito, which is merging with Capitalia, probably from Oct 1, fell 4.27% to 5.755. Intesa Sanpaolo lost 3.11% to 5.21. French broker Exane said it favours switching out of Capitalia into Intesa. BMPS was down 0.66% to 4.485 ahead of results next week and on more positive sentiment. Banco Popolare lost 3.77% to 16.83. Analysts told Thomson Financial News that the bank has urged them to lower their first half earnings estimates, citing higher merger costs and provisions. BPM was off 4.31% at 9.98 ahead of a strategy committee meeting. One broker said it is unclear if the bank will merge with a larger rival or with another medium-sized institution. In the construction sector, Impregilo was down 3.86% at 5.00. Italcementi eased 3.06% to 17.09 and Buzzi Unicem lost 3.23% to 19.75. Enel, up 0.14% at 7.43, was the only S&P/Mib stock in positive territory after yesterday's results. Brokers said the firm results and the company's high dividend yield supported the stock price. Eni fell 1.98% to 24.81. Pirelli was down 1.40% at 0.811, outperforming on hopes it can shortly complete the sale of its Telecom Italia stake with speculation it will use the proceeds to pay a dividend. Telecom Italia was off 1.12% at 16.46. And rounding out Europe this week, we go to Spain where in Madrid the market also closed sharply lower with with Bankinter and leading constructors bearing the brunt of selling. The IBEX-35 index closed down 325.0 points at 13,873.4 after trading in a range of 13,816-14,210. Constructors took a battering, with Sacyr down 1.37 Eur or 5.0% at 26.01, ACS off 1.87 or 4.91% at 36.23, Acciona losing 7.05 or 3.97% to 170.35, and Ferrovial slipping 2.35 or 3.82% to 59.10. Cintra was down 0.62 or 5.54% at 10.57 as investors took fright at its exposure to the US data. Bankinter was hardest hit, down 0.67 Eur or 6.14% at 10.25 as investor jitters overshadowed the merger and acquisition speculation that has driven the bank's share price in recent months. Other mid cap banks were also hit hard, with Popular, down 0.45 or 3.37% at 12.89, and Banesto, 0.50 or 3.51% lower at 13.75. Among larger banking peers, BBVA was down 0.41 or 2.44% to 16.36, and Santander was 0.38 or 2.87% lower at 12.86. Defensives were in favour, with REE up 0.34 or at 33.12 and Enagas gaining 0.04 to 17.17. Other utilities were less popular. Gas Natural fell 1.27 or 3.46% to 35.42, after Lehman Brothers downgraded the stock to 'underweight' from 'equal-weight'. |
Shares in the accountancy software group firmed up 1.8% to 243p after UBS upgraded it to “buy”. The broker said concerns about Sage’s US medical division, Emdeon, had been overplayed. “There is a good growth opportunity if Sage invests to improve the reputation and the sales effort at Emdeon,” it said. J Sainsbury improved 0.9% to 547p, supported by talk that the board of the food retailer was poised to allow Delta Two, the Qatar-based investment fund, access to its books. Delta Two has said it might be prepared to offer 600p a share for Sainsbury. The possibility of a bid for Sainsbury helped support William Morrison, up 0.5% to 276p, which was seen as a takeover candidate on account of its large freehold property portfolio. That said, both stocks also benefited from their perceived defensive qualities as did British Energy, 0.7% better at 468p, and Unilever, 0.1% higher at £15.58. The session’s other blue-chip riser was BAE Systems, the defence company. Its shares were lifted 1.3% to 454p by reports that claimed Saudi Arabia would next week sign a £20bn deal for 72 Eurofighters. In the wider market, leading shares dropped sharply after the US government announced the first monthly drop in non-farm payrolls in four years. Concerns that the US was heading for recession saw the FTSE 100 drop 122.1 points, or 1.9%, to 6,191.2, leaving it down 30 points on the year. The FTSE 250 lost 223.1 points, or 2%, to 11,107.7. Ominously, volumes picked up, suggesting there was some heavy selling pressure behind the fall. Turn-over reached 3.2bn shares. Over the week the FTSE 100 fell 112.1 points, or 1.8%, while the FTSE 250 declined 201.5 points, or 1.8%. Once again the heavyweight banking sector led the market lower as investors continued to worry about potential losses from structured investment vehicles (SIVs). These fears were reflected in the three-month Sterling interbank rate, which crept up to 6.88%, its highest level since November 1998. Analysts said the move reflected the fact that banks were hoarding cash in case they have to extend credit lines to SIVs. Alliance & Leicester, which was unsettled by rumours of a profits warning, fell 4.1% to 956p, while Royal Bank of Scotland lost 4.7% to 532p and Barclays fell 4.2% to 582½p. HSBC, off 1.6% at 873p, managed to avoid the worst of selling, supported by news that activist investor Knight Vinke had written to the bank requesting a review of group strategy. Analysts said there was little scope for structural change. They said HSBC would be unable to sell Household, its US business, in the present environment and a disposal of CCF, its French division, would not be sufficiently material to trigger a re-rating. Mining stocks were also under pressure. Vedanta Resources dropped 4.4% to £18.27, while Anglo American lost 4.9% to £27.76 and Xstrata declined 4.2% to £28.35. Traders said the falls reflected fears that demand for metals and basic materials would decline if the US entered a recession. Worries about the US also hit British Airways, down 5.4% to 395¼p. BA makes most of its money from business passengers on its transatlantic routes. Burberry, the luxury goods company, traded as high as 617½p amid talk it could be a takeover target for LVMH. However, caught up in the turmoil, it closed 1.5% lower at 602½p. Among the mid caps, Croda International was marked 3% higher at 653p after Merrill Lynch reiterated its “buy” rating on the chemicals company. |
Japan ese shares closed lower Friday as investors locked in gains, exercising caution ahead of the release of the US employment data for August. Bank and real estate stocks led the decline on lingering worries about US mortgage defaults and their impact on broader credit markets, while steel, oil and technology stocks also surrendered recent gains. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed down 134.84 points, or 0.8%, at 16,122.16. The broader TOPIX index fell 11.50 points, or 0.7%, to 1,557.02. Decliners beat gainers 933 to 668 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange's first section, with 117 issues unchanged. Volume traded reached an estimated 1.59 billion shares, down from 2.10 billion shares on Thursday. Hong Kong stocks consolidated on Friday, with blue chips slipping 0.3% as China Mobile fell due to a 15% cap that will apply to its index weighting as part of a quarterly revision to the benchmark index. Hong Kong-listed China plays gained 0.5% as Bank of Communications advanced on its entry to the blue-chip index and China Construction Bank hit a life high, its third this week. The benchmark Hang Seng Index ended at 23,982.61. The China Enterprises index of H-shares>, or Hong Kong-listed shares in mainland companies, ended at 14,489.40. In South Korea The Bank of Korea's decision to keep its benchmark call rate target for September at 5.00% failed to reverse the negative sentiment, as the verdict was widely expected. The KOSPI index closed down 3.91 points or 0.2% at 1,884.90, after trading between 1,869.56 and 1,899.04. It ended the week with a gain of 11.66 points, or 0.6%. Volume was 387 million shares worth 5.3 trillion Won. Decliners beat gainers by 506 to 293, with 67 issues unchanged. Retail investors were net sellers of shares worth 112.5 billion Won while foreign investors were net buyers of 125.7 billion Won. Institutions were net sellers of shares worth 1.2 billion Won. POSCO fell 6,000 Won or 1.0% to 590,000 Won after posting a more than 4% gain in the previous session. Chip makers lost ground as recent declines in chip prices continued to dampen investor enthusiasm for the sector. Hynix slid 1,050 Won or 3.3% to 31,000 Won. Hyundai Motor closed down 200 Won or 0.3% at 71,600 Won, giving up gains made on Thursday after an appeals court suspended a prison term imposed on the group's chairman for embezzlement. LG Philips LCD rose 1,900 Won or 4.7% to 42,650, supported by a recent increase in LCD panel prices. SK Energy rose 7,500 Won or 5.0% to 158,000 Won following an announcement Thursday that it will review a plan to merge with its subsidiary, SK Incheon Oil. The merger is aimed at boosting synergies between the two companies. Retailers were among the leading gainers on hopes they will benefit from an expected recovery in domestic consumption towards the end of the year. Shinsegae rose 15,000 Won or 2.4% to 633,000 Won and Lotte Shopping was up 10,000 Won or 2.7% at 377,000 Won. Philippine share prices closed 0.2% higher Friday, lifted by strong interest in the country's largest mining company. They said the rise, however, was weighed down by mixed signals from overseas markets and continuing concerns over domestic political developments. The Philippine Stock Exchange composite index rose 6.44 points to close at 3,332.97 after moving between 3,313.69 and 3,337.87. Volume totalled 6.0 billion shares worth 3.5 billion Pesos (75.25 million Dollars). There were 62 gainers and 39 losers, while 51 stocks were unchanged. The all-share index edged up 1.72 points to 2,117.26. The local currency traded at 46.509 to the Dollar. Philex Mining shares jumped 70 centavos to 6.20 Pesos, leading gains in the mining and oil sector which advanced 8.1%. Philex reported Wednesday its net profit for the first seven months of 2007 more than doubled to 3.1 billion Pesos due to higher metal prices and volumes sold. Geograce Resources Philippines Inc rose 20 centavos to 1.70 Pesos while Atlas Consolidated Mining and Development Corp advanced 75 centavos to 14.50 Pesos. Bargain-hunters, meanwhile, chased Bank of the Philippine Islands, which rose 1.50 to 63. The Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (PLDT), the nation's biggest company by market value, fell 20 to 2,700. San Miguel Corp. saw its A and B shares fall 50 centavos each to 62 Pesos and 64.50 Pesos respectively. Taiwan shares ended flat Friday on weak volume. The Weighted Price Index of the Taiwan Stock Exchange rose 1 point to 9,018.08. Foreign investors were the main players. Shares rose to as high as 9,078 during the session, but could not sustain the gains. In Friday's trading, tech issues stood out. AU Optronics gained 3.4% to close at NT$50.50 on strong August revenue. Catcher Technology rose 2.2% to NT$276. China A-shares closed sharply lower after the central bank announced another hike in bank reserve ratio requirements in an effort to tighten credit. Most banks were hit as the central bank's move takes the reserve ratio to 12.5% for most lenders, in the seventh hike this year. Property firms with strong demand for funds led the decline amid concerns over the latest measure and further credit tightening policies, such as a possible interest rate hike next week after August CPI announcement. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed down 116.48 points or 2.16% at 5,277.18. Turnover rose to 186.65 billion RMB from 165.20 billion RMB in the previous session. The Shanghai A-share Index fell 123.24 points or 2.18% to 5,540.72 on turnover of 185.32 billion RMB and the Shenzhen A-share Index was down 30.23 points or 1.94% at 1,531.64 on turnover of 99.29 billion RMB. The FTSE/Xinhua China A 50 Index was down 445.51 points at 20,188.87. The FTSE/Xinhua China A 200 Index fell 328.63 points to 15,187.84 and the FTSE/Xinhua China A 600 Index ended down 287.67 points at 12,989.94. Malaysian shares closed mixed Friday as investors digested the government's budget announcement for next year. Strong gains in some major index-linked stocks, however, helped to keep the benchmark index in positive territory. The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) closed up 6.05 points or 0.5% at 1,304.90, off a low of 1,298.47. For the week, the KLCI gained 30.97 points or 2.4%. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia 30-large index gained 25.37 points or 0.3% to 8,263.18, while the second board index inched down 0.29 point or 0.3% to 107.02. Decliners led gainers 467 to 335, with 273 stocks unchanged and 252 counters untraded. Trading volume was 1.101 billion shares, valued at 1.949 billion Ringgit. Singapore shares closed higher for the third straight session this week on continued bargain-hunting in select stocks with firm fundamentals. The Straits Times Index added 22.91 points or 0.7% to close at 3,488.97, after trading between 3,465.19 and 3.505.58. For the week, the index gained 96.06 points or 2.8%. Gainers outnumbered decliners 594 to 259, with 811 stocks unchanged. Volume traded reached 3.2 billion shares valued at 2.2 billion Singapore Dollars. Indonesian shares closed higher Friday led by Telkom and select mining companies, including Bumi Resources, on expectations they will announce strong second-half earnings, while news of higher realized domestic and foreign investment also helped lift market sentiment. Actual domestic and foreign direct investments (FDI) in Indonesia during the first eight months of the year rose 123% from a year earlier to 11.70 billion US Dollars, data from National Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) showed Friday. The composite index closed up 19.12 points or 0.9% at 2,239.90 on volume of 7.15 billion shares valued at 3.30 trillion Rupiah. The LQ-45 index was up 4.61 points at 469.70. Gainers led decliners 117 to 61, with 54 stocks unchanged. Thai shares closed weaker on Friday, pulled lower by declines in other regional markets, including China and Japan. Investors also traded with caution amid speculation about the successor to Thailand's junta leader and army chief, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, who will retire at the end of this month. The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index fell 8.36 points or 1% to 801.46 and the blue-chip SET 50 index lost 6.70 points to 577.90. Losers far outnumbered gainers 240 to 77, with 123 stocks unchanged on trade of 1.7 billion shares worth 15.7 billion Baht. Investors were also cautious ahead of an expected announcement of Thailand's new army chief as local papers were rife with speculations over Sonthi's successor. The announcement will likely come at the end of September. Thailand's top energy firm PTT fell 2.00 Baht to 312.00 and its unit PTT Exploration and Production also lost 2.00 to 121.00. Top lender Bangkok Bank declined 2.00 Baht to 115.00. Thai Airways International edged down 0.50 to 42.00, and the kingdom's largest mobile phone operator Advanced Info Service lost 3.50 Baht to 89.00. Indian shares closed slightly lower tracking a mixed trends in European and Asian markets, negating gains made earlier in the day. The Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark Sensex fell 0.17%, or 25.89 points, at 15,590.42 after it surged to a high of 15,716.06, just 0.96% short of a record 15,868.85 points set in late-July. The National Stock Exchange's S&P CNX Nifty lost 0.20% to 4,509.50 points. In the BSE 30, 13 shares gained and 17 fell. In the broader market, 1,377 shares advanced, 1,299 declined and 83 were unchanged. ACC Ltd, India's biggest cement maker, lost 1.40% to 1,086.75 Rupees, engineering and construction giant Larsen & Toubro Ltd fell 0.60% to 2,583.20 Rupees, while Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd fell 1% to 409.90 Rupees. For the week, Ranbaxy has gained 4.75%. On the upside, Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd gained 1.63% to 850.70 Rupees as crude oil prices traded near their record high. Reliance Communication Ltd, which is expected to benefit most from last week's recommendations of India's telecom regulator, rose 0.82% to 544.30 Rupees. TCS, India's biggest software company, which said it has raised its billing rates by more than 5% for new contracts and 3-4% for existing deals, closed up 0.03% at 1,077.30 Rupees. The focus will shift to the US non-farm jobs data later in the day, which will be a pointer to the state of that nation's economy. The Australia n sharemarket ended the week slightly higher, with resource stocks leading the charge on a day of light trading volume due to the Sydney public holiday. At the 1615 AEST close, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index finished up 27.4 points to 6278.4 and the All Ordinaries had gained 31.2 points to 6296.5. On the Sydney Futures Exchange, the September share price index contract closed up eight points to 6282 on a volume of 6,271 contracts. At close mining giant BHP Billiton had gained 85 cents to end at A$39.75, rival Rio Tino was up A$2 to A$101, and Alumina rose 16 cents to A$6.94. Among the top four banks, Commonwealth finished 33 cents weaker to A$54.67, National Australia Bank down 30 cents to A$39, Westpac was down eight cents to A$26.65, while ANZ ended 17 cents lower to A$28.42. The strong rise in Rio Tinto Ltd shares, which once again punched through the A$100 mark, followed speculation that the resources giant was again on the radar of rival BHP Billiton. In the energy sector, Woodside gained 53 cents to A$46.63, Santos finished up seven cents to A$13.06 and Oil Search had advanced two cents to A$3.6, all on the back of high crude oil prices. Telstra closed down three cents at A$4.27, with its instalment receipts four cents lower to A$2.77. Media giant News Corp finished 49 cents higher to A$27.09, its non-voting scrip was up 78 cents to A$25.51, while Publishing and Broadcasting was up nine cents to A$18.49 and Seven Network was up 26 cents to A$12.13. Fairfax dropped three cents to A$4.49 and Ten Network was down two cents to A$2.61. And finally in the Asia Pacific region this week, we go to New Zealand where Wellington shares closed slightly higher ahead of key US unemployment data due for release Friday in the US. The benchmark NZX 50 index gained 11.88 points or 0.29% to end at 4,151.98. The broader All Capital index settled at 1,123.11 after adding 4.47 points or 0.40%. Top company Telecom rose 0.23%, Fletcher Building gained 0.51% and Contact Energy jumped 1.55%. While Fisher & Paykel Healthcare climbed 1.43%, Fisher & Paykel Appliances closed unchanged. In the retail space, The Warehouse jumped 2.44% on news of a special dividend of NZ$0.35 a share totaling NZ$109 million, Hellaby Holdings gained 3.59%, Hallenstein Glasson advanced 0.22% and Michael Hill rose 1.50%. Pumpkin Patch gave away 1.47%. Among other notable stocks, Nuplex gained 1.60%, Sky City fell 0.45% and Steel & Tube surged 2.00%. Auckland International Airport advanced 0.65%, but Air New Zealand lost 0.92%. |
Spot gold in London hit $707.10 an ounce, its highest level since May 2006, as expectations of a cut in US interest rates pushed the Dollar to $1.3798 against the Euro. The sharp rally in gold, which later traded at $703.7 an ounce, up $8.50 on the day, takes the metal close to its 26-year high of $730 reached in May 2006. Silver rose to $12.60 an ounce, still well below last year’s high of almost $15. The price surge was driven by robust physical demand for the metal from India, China and other emerging markets as well as gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Investors are betting the US Federal Reserve will cut its main interest rate by up to 50 basis points at its September 18 meeting, to cushion the US economy against the credit squeeze. A reduction in US interest rates would increase the downward pressure on the Dollar, making Dollar-priced gold cheaper for investors in other currencies. Physical demand for Gold is accelerating in India, the world’s largest gold consumer, China and the Middle East. Gold’s underlying fundamentals are improving. Consumer demand in India jumped 72% in the first half of 2007, compared with the same period a year earlier, thanks to less volatile gold prices and strong economic growth, according to the industry-backed World Gold Council. Second-quarter consumer demand in India “reached an astonishing 317 tonnes – equivalent to half global mine output in that period,” the council said. Global gold demand increased 11% in the first half of the year, compared with the same period a year ago, despite high prices, the council said. Total supply fell 4% in the same period. The gold price surge comes in spite of strong sales by central banks in industrialised countries, which have sharply reduced their precious metal holdings since 1999. Other commodities were mixed on the week, with most falling on Friday, dragged down by concerns on the US economy. Crude oil prices approached their record high. In late London afternoon trading, Nymex October West Texas Intermediate fell 34 cents to $75.95 a barrel, but on the week made a gain of 2.1%. Oil rose on concerns that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would keep its production unchanged at its meeting in Vienna next week, and following a larger-than-expected drop in US crude oil and gasoline inventories. Opec, which controls 40% of global oil production, has said that the demand outlook is unclear despite calls by the International Energy Agency, the industrialised countries’ energy watchdog, for an increase in supply. Nymex October heating oil jumped 4.5% on the week to trade at $2.1340 a gallon on Friday but Nymex RBOB gasoline lost 4.2% to $1.9662 a gallon. Agricultural commodities posted weekly gains after wheat surged on Wednesday in Chicago to a record high of $8.86 a bushel. CBOT December Wheat closed the week 6.4% higher at $8.22¾ a bushel. CBOT December corn rose on the week by 1.2% to $3.44 ½ a bushel. Base metals fell sharply during the week amid ongoing worries about the US economy. The fears increased yesterday after it was revealed that the US economy lost jobs last month for the first time in four years, raising fears that it might fall into recession. Aluminium dropped 4.1% to $2,445 a tonne while copper lost 4.5% to $7,160 a tonne. Zinc fell 10.7% to $2,779.7 a tonne and nickel lost 9.4% to $27,050 a tonne. Nickel lost 9.2% to $27,100 a tonne. Tin dropped 4.7 per cen to $14,750 a tonne. |
US non-farm payroll figures released Friday showed 4,000 jobs were lost in August, well below expectations for an increase of 112,000. This increases expectations that the Federal Reserve will move to cut its lending rate. This is unequivocally bad news for the Dollar, raising the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates on or before its next meeting on September 18 to almost 100%. This is the first piece of solid data that shows the problems in the US mortgage markets are hitting the real economy. The Dollar fell 1% to $1.3770 against the Euro over the week, close to its record low of $1.3852 touched on July 24. The Dollar also fell 1.9% to Y113.60 against the Yen, 0.5% to $2.0270 against the pound and 1.6% to SFr1.1890 against the Swiss franc. The jobs data added to the bearish sentiment on the Dollar that manifested itself during in the week after a plunge in US home sales was reported on Wednesday. Analysts said it was the first time in the recent bout of market turbulence that soft US data was seen as Dollar negative, instead of positive as US investors repatriated money from other riskier assets. The Yen benefited and higher-yielding currencies suffered as risk aversion increased. The Yen, which has been widely used for funding carry trades, in which low-yielding currencies are sold to finance the purchase of riskier assets elsewhere, rose 0.9% to Y156.45 against the Euro on the week. It climbed 1.4% to Y230.15 against the pound and jumped 3.4% to Y78.40 against the New Zealand Dollar. The Euro was supported as the European Central Bank maintained its hawkish bias on interest rates. The ECB kept interest rates on hold at 4% on Thursday, blaming the turbulence on financial markets, but said it still saw upside risks to inflation. Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, continued to call monetary policy accommodative and referred to vigorous monetary and credit growth in the Eurozone. The Euro rose 0.5% to £0.6795 against the pound on the week. Sterling lost ground after comments from the Bank of England as it left interest rates on hold at 5.75% on Thursday. Like the ECB, the central bank blamed market conditions, saying it was too soon to tell how the turmoil would affect its inflation target. Unusually for a “no-change” decision, the bank’s monetary policy committee released a statement explaining its lack of action. The very fact that the MPC chose to issue a statement even though it left rates unchanged is a tacit acknowledgement that these are extraordinary times, which in turn rather argues against any near-term threat of a hike. The Swedish central bank, however, decided to raise interest rates. The Swedish Krona rose 0.5% to SKr9.3500 against the Euro and 1.5% to SKr6.7860 against the Dollar on the week as the Riksbank raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%. The South African Rand was range bound with a slightly weaker bias in late trade on Friday on the back of what dealers said was some general emerging market weakness as fears of a recession in the US grow. This was fuelled by news that US non-farm payrolls data had come in far worse than expected. In late afternoon trade the rand was bid at R7,2279 per Dollar from its overnight close of R7,1807. It was bid at R9,9731 to the Euro from a previous R9,8463 and at R14,6709 against Sterling from R14,5280 before. The Australian Dollar was varied against the majors in trading on Friday afternoon in New York. The aussie moved with little economic news from the area. The Australian currency was choppy against its American counterpart on Friday afternoon in New York. The aussie bounced between a high of 0.8302 and a low of 0.8234. The New Zealand currency moved little overall against its American counterpart. The kiwi bounced between a high of 0.6930 and a low of 0.6867. And rounding out currencies this week closer to home, with the RMB. The Chinese RMB gained 12 basis points against the US Dollar, to close at 7.5870 on the exchange-traded session, on speculation the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to increase interest rates to curb inflation. On Tuesday, the PBOC lifted interest rates by 27bp, the fourth time this year, and the lending rate by 18bp. Moreover, RMB 1 year non-deliverable-forwards traded at 7.208 to the Dollar, anticipating the RMB could be almost 5% stronger in one year's time. |
“We will continue to improve the detailed regulations,” Shang Fulin, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission said at the World Economic Forum in Dalian. “This trial will be very good for the international balance of payments. But in the initial stage I believe the numbers will not be so big and the impact on the [Chinese domestic] A-share market won’t be significant.” The scheme was announced last month by the country’s foreign exchange regulator and will allow individual investors to trade Hong Kong-listed stocks by opening accounts at Bank of China’s Tianjin branch. In practice, investors will be able to open Tianjin accounts at any BOC outlet. The government wants citizens to buy more foreign currency to reduce the country’s ballooning foreign exchange reserves, reduce excessive domestic liquidity and relieve appreciation pressure on the renminbi. Jiang Jianqing, chairman of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world’s largest bank by market capitalisation, told the Financial Times his bank was preparing to offer Hong Kong stock trading services as well. “This will present a huge business opportunity for us,” Mr Jiang said in an interview on Thursday. Officials in Binhai said the initial plan was to allow investors with a minimum of Rmb100,000 ($13.268) to open trading accounts but the CSRC has yet to announce any details. Speculation is rife that the limit will be raised to discourage massive outflows from the mainland. China’s benchmark index has risen more than five-fold in over two years and mainland-traded stocks are far more expensive than their Hong Kong counterparts, measured by price to earnings ratios or comparing share prices in the 45 companies listed in both markets. Since the plan was announced Hong Kong stocks have soared in anticipation of a flood of Chinese money. Mr Shang denied the regulator had introduced a secret policy of encouraging all but the largest domestic companies to list on the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges, although regulatory and market sources have confirmed it exists. He said the government would soon allow foreign securities firms to start investing again in the Chinese securities sector, following a year-long ban. ******************************************************************* China Construction Bank, the second-biggest lender in the country, could launch the largest listing on the mainland stock market, according to regulatory filings released on Tuesday. CCB, which was the first of the original “big four” Chinese banks to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange – raising $9.2bn in 2005 – said it would issue up to 9bn shares in Shanghai if it received approval from the regulator, which will examine the proposal on Friday. Based on the price of the bank’s shares in Hong Kong and the valuations of recent initial public offerings in Shanghai, analysts say the listing could raise $7bn-$8bn. Chinese companies usually list within one month of receiving formal approval from the regulator. Bank of America will see its stake in the Chinese lender fall from 8.52% to 8.19% as a result of the Shanghai listing, according to CCB’s filings. The CCB listing is likely to be one of a number of large fund-raisings in Shanghai over the next few months by large state-owned Chinese companies already listed in Hong Kong. Last month, PetroChina received approval for a Shanghai listing expected to raise more than $5bn, while China Shenhua Energy, the country’s largest coal-miner, also won support from its shareholders for its listing plans which could also raise more than $7bn. The flurry of well-known companies seeking a Shanghai listing is a further vote of confidence in the mainland capital market, which has had a remarkable recovery over the past two years. The Shanghai composite index reached a new intra-day high of 5,357.9 points yesterday, however the news of the impending CCB fund-raising took some of the steam out of the market and the index closed down 0.51% at 5,294 points. ******************************************************************* China will raise the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points for commercial banks to 12.5% in an effort to cool the booming economy, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said on Thursday. This is the seventh such move this year, aimed at "strengthening liquidity management in the banking system and checking the excessive credit growth", the central bank said in a statement. The move, which will take effect on 25 September, comes after China reduced the tax on interest income to 5% from 20% from 15 August, and raised the benchmark interest rate for four times this year. The consumer price index (CPI), China's key inflation indicator, went up to a 33-month high of 5.6% in July, with analysts predicting the index will be even higher in August. For the reserve requirement ratio, he said, there was still space for further hikes because the 12.5-percent ratio was 0.5 percentage points short of the historical record a decade ago. China's foreign exchange reserves reached 1.33 trillion US Dollars at the end of June, up 41.6% over the same period last year. A total of 266.3 billion US Dollars was added in the first half of 2007, compared with a rise of 247.3 billion US Dollars for the whole of 2006. Meanwhile, China's money supply is staying at a high level, with M2 which covers cash in circulation plus all deposits rising 18.5% in July over the same period last year. The country's commercial banks lent 2.77 trillion RMB (369.33 billion US Dollars) from January to July, equivalent to 90% of last year's total. |
Summary A host of top Federal Reserve as well as European Central Bank policymakers speak next week.
The highlights will be Mr Bernanke's lecture on global imbalances in Berlin on Tuesday and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's special hearing on sub-prime mortgage crisis in front of a European Parliament committee in Brussels on the same day.
Ahead of that, Trichet and Bernanke will join a host of other policymakers at the Bank of International Settlements' (BIS) two-monthly meeting in Basel on Sunday and Monday - their first gathering since the credit crisis started in August.
Besides keeping a close eye on policymakers' comments, markets will next week keep looking for any signs of the credit market crunch letting up or the degree of illiquidity deepening.
But as mentioned at the outset, September 18th is the key date when the Fed' meets and until then, markets will remain in a state of flux I believe. Basically, more of what you saw this week, next week.
OPEC, which produces about 40% of the world's oil, will have to weigh consumers' concerns about oil prices exceeding $75 a barrel against its own fears that a supply rise could prove mistimed if the current trouble in credit markets starts to weigh on economic growth and oil demand.
Ministers generally remain convinced that plenty of crude is available and are more confident the world economy, aided by greater competition and freer trade, can handle oil prices that are about $15 a barrel higher today than they were in mid-March, when OPEC last met and kept output unchanged.
In addition, the outlook for financial markets and oil demand could become clearer shortly after ministers leave Vienna.
With uncertainty over the fallout of those US credit woes, OPEC may communicate a policy that gives it the wiggle room to quietly alter output as it becomes clearer in the weeks ahead how the global economy is weathering credit problems in America
Overall, as mentioned five weeks ago, the second and third weeks of September will be the key I feel to Global Markets for the remainder of the year and probably the first and second quarters of next year even.
All told, it is going to be an interesting couple of weeks ahead.
As always, I wish you all a pleasant weekend and I will keep you all posted as/when any significant developments occur during the week ahead.
Market Review Newsletter Compiled By
Adrian Page
Managing Director
Financial Page International
Saturday 8 September 2007
"Money Does Not Perform. People Do!"
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